Will Russia get Paris like deal for PAK-FA during Modi’s November visit?

[Zebra]

http://idrw.org/will-russia-get-paris-like-deal-for-pak-fa-during-modis-november-visit/#more-72199

Will Russia get Paris like deal for Pak-fa during Modi’s November visit?

Published August 23, 2015 | By admin
SOURCE : IDRW NEWS NETWORK (INN)


According to media buzz, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia in November likely will see some possible deal on Russian-built fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) which has been pending for final agreement Since 2009.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar recently informed parliamentarians that India already has invested 1,483.15 crore ($295 million ) on the preliminary design stage of the fifth generation fighter aircraft programme which was completed in June 2013.

Indian negotiation team have asked Ministry of Defence to request Russia to deliver 3 T-50 prototypes and order few Russian Production variant of Pak-fa While India still works on R&D contract for Indian Customized FGFA variant.

IAF likely will suggest Ministry of Defence to order 65 Pak-fa to be purchased off the shelf when the aircraft will enter mass production in 2017 in 2017. but Defence Analyst believe order for Pak-fa will be much smaller then IAF’s request of 65 aircrafts so that bulk of 5th generation fighter jets are produced in India under Prime minister Modi’s ” Make in India ” initiative at Ozar facility of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) .

India Airforce team already have watched Pak-Fa aircraft up close in Russia in last few years and soon Indian test pilots will get a chance to test fly one of the T-50 Prototype soon in Russia.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to France in April this year announced the intent to get 36 Rafale jets and many Defence Analysts are also expecting similar off the shelf purchase order for Pak-fa while research-and-development contract works out, more jets can be developed as per IAF customization in India at the later date.

IAF has requirement of 144 Russian developed 5th generation fighter jet, but due to rapid fall in aircraft fleet strength due to retirement of many fighter jets, IAF had requested purchase of 60 Rafale fighter jet and 65 Pak-fa fighter jets off the shelf from respected vendors to slow down rapid decline in squadron strength, which will be at all time low of 32 squadrons by the end of this year.

 

[Zebra]

^^
One more air superiority aircraft from Russia.

 

[pmaitra]

With every passing day, Russia is moving ahead with its T-50, while India is losing strength in its negotiation about FGFA. I suppose the realization is dawning upon people that Indian money, or lack thereof, is not going to stop Russia from developing what it needs to do. For Russia, protecting its technological edge is more important than $6 billion. Giving away technology would mean adding one more competitor in international arms sales.

The good thing about this is that India is considered to be more or less capable of building a 5th Generation fighter.

I am not very hopeful about FGFA deal.

India will probably end up getting 36 Rafales and 36 T-50 PAK-FAs, and hopefully get the AMCA prototype up and flying.

 

[Zebra]

After sometime super duper IAF will realise that only air superiority aircraft is not good enough.

And they will start their cry for upgrade it to multirole configuration.
Indian govt will spend tax payers money for it.
Russia will upgrade it on Indian tax payers money.
Kits will appear in India for assembling work.
And later on sell it to all other nations.
Indian Russophile will start thumping their chest in the name of co-development , customized variant and what not.

The same age old modus operandi for Russian Indian defence co-operation.

 

[pmaitra]

Indian govt will spend tax payers money for it.
Russia will upgrade it on Indian tax payers money.

Indian Air Force planes have historically been paid for by Indian taxpayers. Is there any possibility that US will pay for these upgrades? US does pay for a lot of things in Pakistan. Russia pays for no one.

P.S.: I said Russia. I did not say USSR.

 

[Yumdoot]

With every passing day, Russia is moving ahead with its T-50, while India is losing strength in its negotiation about FGFA. I suppose the realization is dawning upon people that Indian money, or lack thereof, is not going to stop Russia from developing what it needs to do. For Russia, protecting its technological edge is more important than $6 billion. Giving away technology would mean adding one more competitor in international arms sales.

The good thing about this is that India is considered to be more or less capable of building a 5th Generation fighter.

I am not very hopeful about FGFA deal.

India will probably end up getting 36 Rafales and 36 T-50 PAK-FAs, and hopefully get the AMCA prototype up and flying.

The only difficulty I see in India making a 5th Gen aircraft is the engine. I would not mind Modi going in for a quick purchase of much smaller number of PAKFA than much larger number of FGFA.

Reason being we actually can simultaneously run an AMCA project from the money saved.

This will also clip the wings of the IAF leadership. These guys were thinking they will force open the purse-strings for Rafale by ranting against FGFA. Instead they will get just about enough of both and virtually kill all chances for any future imports.

We probably could investigate the option of bargaining for MKI-zation of PAKFA instead of a full new FGFA. Basically taking out the Russian items where we have the capability to develop options. Unless we pump in money into AMCA we will always have IAF fat-marshals, trying to force imports. In any case PAKFA/FGFA is certainly going to be the last foreign fighter in IAF. Unless ideas of the type of Ground-Attack-Hawk132 are considered important. In which case IAF fat-marshals can always think of new ideas - a cannon on C-17 probably.

Budgetary constraints will ensure that any import is only at the expense of indigenous capacity. Please note I said capacity and not capability. IOW I am not interested in merely a tech demo level idea. We need the full industry and the market. And what better than a captive market. HAL has problems then look for other entrepreneurs, other JVs, but no point standing still.

Strategically too this is after all what the Russians wanted forever - to have India and China that are not dependent on the west. That can truly happen only if the case for indigenous industry is build up. Americans turned reason on its head for making JSF a success. In India we have all the reasons in our favour and we still wait for getting all and sundry on board. Somebody has got to decide for the IAF too. Better Modi than fat-marshals.

Sticky point from an Indian POV is the 'Engine'. I say we select a realistic engine and then subsequently design an AMCA around it.

 

[pmaitra]

@Yumdoot, agreed. The engine is the biggest challenge. Even if that does not work out, it is better to have only the engine imported, than to have the entire aircraft imported. We still need to remember HF Marut - a fine aircraft killed due to lack of a proper engine. A capability to build an engine is a must. Finally, yes, you made a very important point - we can import only in case of lack of capacity.

 

[bengalraider]

The Grapevine says a solid commitment for ten squadrons is in the works, six for the eastern sector four for the western approx 180 birds with 24-36 in flyaway condition rest to be screwdriver assembly by HAL.The MKI option is still being worked out.These 36 birds should be here by 2022-2027
AMCA is still in the prototype stage it'll easily take another ten years before IOC and 15 before FOC. The prototype is scheduled to fly in 2019 and NAMO is leaning on Parrikar to make it happen before the LS elections!