Will Greece bring down the European Union (EU) ?

roma

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interesting thread --- christian apocalyptic theory is that europe is supposed to produce a political entity of 10 kings grouped together - and although i do not recall any mention of them having the same currenc, nevertheless i personally feel it is most likely they will be united in currency too. ...
the present europena union consists of about 27 counties at the last count and 17 in the eurozone ....both these figure will somehow have to reach the magic number of 10.....well looks like quite some way to go till the end of it all eh ??
 

panduranghari

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No they won't as the British people will not allow it. Fingers crossed we get out our vote and we can kiss good by to the EU. What you seem to be forgetting is there is no hope for the Euro as long as there is no fiscal union. The euro was doomed the moment it was dreamt. Without fiscal union and similar cultures, a single currency is doomed. I cannot wait for this downfall.

You clearly no nothing about British politics. We will never join the Euro because it is a doomed currency and because we like to have control of our currency plus we do not trust Europe, both historically and presently.
Ok. Give it some more time and we will see what happens. I am willing to bet whatever amount you wish. I am that confident about my theory.
 
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Europeans have never been united in history this idea of a one currency and a Europe
without borders was a failure from the start. Now the good economies will have to pick up the
slack for the bad economies.
 

panduranghari

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Europeans have never been united in history
That was one of the reasons why Euro was born.

I mean you go all the way back to the Counter-Reformation in the late 16th century which was extremely bloody. And then the Thirty Years' War which was devastating. And then the Seven Years' War and the Napoleonic Wars, the Franco-Prussian War, World War One, World War Two... this is one catastrophe after another! And Europe literally destroyed itself and exhausted itself in fighting all these wars. And finally after WWII they said enough! We're going to pursue unification. It's the only way to keep from fighting each other.
Now, political unification has had modest success. Military and foreign policy unification has really had no success at all. But the crown jewel of European unification is their monetary system, the euro and the European Central Bank. So that's the pinnacle of their world historical efforts to unify the continent. They're not going to give that away lightly. I mean, they view it in a much broader historical context than Wall Street and Americans. And so it's of the utmost importance to them. And they're going to do everything they can to preserve it. And that's one reason, along with the gold, why I have confidence that Greece will not default.

Please read about Triffin's dilemma.
 

ice berg

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They should kick out Greece and use the money to save Spain and Italy.

Money better spend.
 

panduranghari

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They should kick out Greece and use the money to save Spain and Italy.

Money better spend.
When will it stop? Greece, then Italy then Spain......you see the dollar faction ( Read USA/UK) want that. But it ain't happening matey.
 
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When will it stop? Greece, then Italy then Spain......you see the dollar faction ( Read USA/UK) want that. But it ain't happening matey.
At what point will support for the Euro stop? Even UK is a big mess but
never hear about it in the media.
 

panduranghari

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At what point will support for the Euro stop? Even UK is a big mess but
never hear about it in the media.
Euro does not need external support. Euro can be a stand alone currency, it was built taking into account the thing that most of western world hates but is loved by everyone is the east. However, the current problems with the west and also experienced by Eurozone is the problem of debt. The debt is the problem. The debt is the hangover from the $IMF financial structure.(A system where we are living under where we need to have continuously expanding balance sheet so that the debt can be serviced so that the GDP increases.)


I am writing a post for the forum as requested by TR and hopefully I will be able to explain the paradigm shift. Hopefully it will help you understand where I am coming from. My knowledge is second hand but I have to say I have put in a lot of effort in understanding Euro and ECB.

One thing I will say the situation will be getting a lot worse superficially for all the world. The recovery will be faster for Eurozone and the emerging economies. The people whom I see a substantial suffering for are the Americans, Brits and the export driving commodity economies like Oz and Canada.

Eurozone will be fine.
 
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ice berg

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When will it stop? Greece, then Italy then Spain......you see the dollar faction ( Read USA/UK) want that. But it ain't happening matey.
Greece is a lost cause. Spain and Italy however is something entirely different. They are too important to go down.

Do provide source that US/UK want that. In short and medium term no one is served with the chaos it will bring.
 

panduranghari

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Greece is a lost cause. Spain and Italy however is something entirely different. They are too important to go down.

Do provide source that US/UK want that. In short and medium term no one is served with the chaos it will bring.
I agree with the part in bold. That is a very reason why the current charade is going on.

Look at this link

Total Debt to GDP (%) | Global Finance

Britain and USA with Japan have the highest DEBT.

The debt in the UK is highest for the financial institutions. However, its not restricted to the financial institutions anymore as the government bailed them out. This financial institution debt is actually now the British national debt. This is equally applicable to the USA.

If you take out the non financial business debt bit, the debt for Britain and America is perhaps the highest in the world.

No wonder they want to deflect the attention from their own shortcomings.
 

LurkerBaba

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Greeks work hard but have low productivity
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It turns out that the Greeks are right and the rest of Europe is wrong -- in a way. Greece is the hardest-working country in the EU -- and one of the hardest-working advanced countries in the world -- if you choose to go by OECD's international ranking of average hours worked per person per year, which I've graphed below (with the Y-axis truncated to clarify the comparison)



Now, wait a second. Is Greece the hardest-working country in Europe, or the least-hardworking? How can it be both?

The answer is that what we consider "hardworking" (a proxy for productivity) isn't the same as "working for a long period of time." (E.G.: Monitoring a modern irrigation system is productive. Carrying a few gallons of water on your head for two miles from the nearest stream takes a long time.) In fact, the OECD's richest, most productive, most hardworking countries have some of the shortest working hours. The bottom five, according to the OECD, are Denmark, France, Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands. All are richer per capita than Greece. All are technically "lazier" if you go by hours worked.

The missing key is productivity. Germans -- armed with large and scaled-up firms, low corruption, state-of-the-art technologies, financing opportunities, and smart global supply chain management -- get a lot more product out of each hour worked. So does the U.S. With the wealth that our productivity buys, Americans and Germans can afford things like leisure, or savings, or (in the case of the U.S.) lots and lots of stuff. Matt Yglesias put it simply, broadly, and truly: "Countries aren't rich because their people work hard. When people are poor, that's when they work hard."


Business - Derek Thompson - Why Does the Laziest Country in Europe Work the Most? - The Atlantic
 

LurkerBaba

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Situation in Greece is serious
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Greece Warns of Going Broke as Tax Proceeds Dry Up


ATHENS — As European leaders grapple with how to preserve their monetary union, Greece is rapidly running out of money.

Nikos Lekkas, a government official, said banks had hindered his efforts to collect back taxes.

Government coffers could be empty as soon as July, shortly after this month's pivotal elections. In the worst case, Athens might have to temporarily stop paying for salaries and pensions, along with imports of fuel, food and pharmaceuticals.

Officials, scrambling for solutions, have considered dipping into funds that are supposed to be for Greece's troubled banks. Some are even suggesting doling out i.o.u.'s.

...

Greek leaders said that despite their latest bailout of 130 billion euros, or $161.7 billion, they face a shortfall of 1.7 billion euros because tax revenue and other sources of potential income are drying up. A wrenching recession and harsh budget cuts have left businesses and individuals with less and less to give for taxes — and growing incentive to avoid paying what they owe.

The budget gap is widening as the so-called troika of lenders — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission — withholds 1 billion euros in bailout money earmarked for government financing while it waits to see whether new leaders elected June 17 will honor Greece's commitments.

Even if the troika delivers that money, Greece will struggle to cover its obligations. It underscored a harsh reality that is playing out in other troubled euro zone economies. Prolonged austerity is making it harder, not easier, for governments like Greece to become self-reliant again.


A top Spanish official acknowledged on Tuesday that Spain could not readily return to the markets to raise money because investors are demanding such high rates, highlighting how the debt crisis is spreading to larger economies in Europe.

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said a day earlier that European leaders needed to find a way to create the political union that the world is looking for to complement their monetary union. European officials took a small step in that direction Tuesday by proposing a central authority for banking regulation, which would require countries to give up a bit of cherished sovereignty.

An essential element of Greece's recovery plan has been to collect more taxes from a population that has long engaged in tax avoidance. The government is owed 45 billion euros in back taxes, tax officials in Athens said, only a fraction of which will ever be recovered.

...
 

Yusuf

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Well we can breathe easy for now. All markets up. Guess what? Rupee has appreciated.
 

LurkerBaba

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Greece shuts down as unions hold 48-hour general strike

Unions in Greece began a 48-hour walk-out on Tuesday in protest against the latest raft of anti-austerity measures, due to be put before the country's parliament on Wednesday.
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Police cordoned off streets around main government buildings late on Monday night in preparation for potentially violent protests.
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If lawmakers reject the measures, Greece could lose vital rescue loans that have kept it afloat since May 2010— raising the threat of bankruptcy and a euro exit.

The next loan instalment of €31.5 billion out of a total of €240 billion is already overdue and without it, conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has said Greece will run out of euros on Nov. 16.

Greece shuts down as unions hold 48-hour general strike - GREECE - FRANCE 24
 

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