HariPrasad-1
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India has entered MCTR as the newest member. Prime minister Modi is working very hard and lobbying across the world to get membership in NSG for India. Almost all members have unanimous consensus about the India's membership for NSG. However, china is considered to be the main hurdle and it is said that china will vote against India's entry in NSG and thereby preventing India from being being a member of NSG.
Now this has to be analyzed in the context of what china is going to get by preventing India from being the member of NSG. What they will loose if they oppose India or it is simply a negotiation tactic. Now let us analyze the issue one by one.
What china is going to get by preventing India's membership in NSG:
China considers India as a major power in Asia and its potential competitor Having huge manpower pool and potential to be the factory of the world. Rise of one is certainly going to affect the rise of other negatively like Zero sum game. So obviously it is natural that china would not like to see India rising. They would like India to be contained to a level where India can not emerge as an another power center challenging the supremacy of china in Asia and the world. China knows that and for that they had a long term strategy. Helping Pakistan in Technology like Missile and Atom bomb was a long term plan of china to contain india. Everything was going as per his plan until Modi cam to power. Modi with his highly fast and aggressive foreign policy reverse many thing. Modi demolished china's string of pearl and isolated Pakistan among whole world with only friend china. Modi's act east policy created further concern for china. Improving the relations with Japan, Philippines , vietnam , Australia and better relationship with US totally annoyed china and put it on back foot. The china which once seem to emerging as the major investor and a partner in Economic mater became a non friendly country. Now china wants to contain india but they do not know how to do that. They can not find any way to deal with highly effective and offensive diplomacy of Modi. India's aspiration to be the member of NSG has came as an opportunity for the china where they can harm India somewhat or better to say that they think that they are able to contain the rise of India to some extent. . China by opposing the india's entry may stop india to be a member NSG.
Now the question here is that what harm can china do to India by preventing India from NSG and what they can gain? Looking to the India's capability and competence in Nuclear research, India can not not be contained i developing its Nuclear program in civilian Nuclear program or weapon program by denying NSG entry. India has major cooperation with all nuclear power like US , Russia, France. India has agreements with country like Canada and Australia India's cooperation in nuclear technology has not conditioned on its NSG membership. India has civil Nuclear agreement with US. Russian nuclear power plants are already in construction in India. India has hired Nuclear submarine from Russia. Many countries like Australia , Japan and Canada has various agreements with India without India being a member of NSG. So Indian nuclear co operation is not at all conditioned on the India's membership in NSG. No Indian Nuclear ambition can be curtailed by china by denying India the membership in NSG. So china can hardly harm India in achieving her strategic or civil nuclear ambitions. So china is not going to get anything by preventing India from being a member of NSG.
What china is going to loose by opposing the india's entry in NSG:
China's policy to contain india was going well untill modi came to power. However, The aggressive economic and foreign policy of Modi rattled china completely. Initially they tried to pretend that they are friends but latter on it was seen that china is not able to leave its old policy of containing India considering India a rival. Initially Xi came to India and promised big investment. They promised a cooperation in many area. It was felt initially that we India and china is stepping new era of economic friendship and that will be later on extended in another area to resolve border issues and even defense cooperation. However, china could not break strait jacket and adopt a new India policy. Looking at the current condition of china where it is loosing its status of manufacturing hub and economic status, It was best policy for china to be the economic partner and benefit from India's development. China has a huge chunk of money and foreign currency is Trillions of Dollars. When the business in china has not remained very attractive, they should try to find a destination where they can multiply their money and there is no better destination than India. They can invest in india may get some favorable terms an get benefited. However, it seems that china is doing otherwise. If china do not put its policies right, it is very much possible that it may end up like Japan where they have a lots of money but their GDP is shrinking at a rapid pace. They are unable to leveraged their huge chunk of money for any economic benefit or growth. So it is not wise for china to kill a possibility of being more prosperous for some short sighted reasons. Policy of china to contain India seems very reactive in nature lacking any foresightedness. This will hist china very badly if they obstruct india. That will give india free hand to help vietnam and other country to boost nuclear cooperation which will further weaken the china's condition and status in the region. The another grey area is that india is a big nuclear power eligible for a natural entry in NSG. All other countries are supporting. Going against their will will spoil the relationship with other country and attract their wrath.
Negation tactics:
The third possibility I see is that china may be wanting to negotiate with India in some area of its concern, China wanted an entry in SARCC. India was naturally opposed it. Here china can negotiate the entry in SARCC in exchange of support in NSG. The other possible concern of China may nuclear cooperation of India with the countries like Vietnam and Philippines. China negotiate with India for that and settle the issue on mutually agreeable term. The third possibility china may be wanting to negotiate is the entry of Pakistan in NSG. Looking to irresponsible behavior and impression of Pakistan in whole world, china may not success .
Conclusion: The act of opposing India's entry in NSG by china looks reactive in nature without properly calibrating pros and cons. Any opposition f India's entry in NSG will prove counter productive to china's strategic and economic interest. However , if that is a negotiating tactic, china may negotiate with India and may arrive on any mutually agreeable term.
Now this has to be analyzed in the context of what china is going to get by preventing India from being the member of NSG. What they will loose if they oppose India or it is simply a negotiation tactic. Now let us analyze the issue one by one.
What china is going to get by preventing India's membership in NSG:
China considers India as a major power in Asia and its potential competitor Having huge manpower pool and potential to be the factory of the world. Rise of one is certainly going to affect the rise of other negatively like Zero sum game. So obviously it is natural that china would not like to see India rising. They would like India to be contained to a level where India can not emerge as an another power center challenging the supremacy of china in Asia and the world. China knows that and for that they had a long term strategy. Helping Pakistan in Technology like Missile and Atom bomb was a long term plan of china to contain india. Everything was going as per his plan until Modi cam to power. Modi with his highly fast and aggressive foreign policy reverse many thing. Modi demolished china's string of pearl and isolated Pakistan among whole world with only friend china. Modi's act east policy created further concern for china. Improving the relations with Japan, Philippines , vietnam , Australia and better relationship with US totally annoyed china and put it on back foot. The china which once seem to emerging as the major investor and a partner in Economic mater became a non friendly country. Now china wants to contain india but they do not know how to do that. They can not find any way to deal with highly effective and offensive diplomacy of Modi. India's aspiration to be the member of NSG has came as an opportunity for the china where they can harm India somewhat or better to say that they think that they are able to contain the rise of India to some extent. . China by opposing the india's entry may stop india to be a member NSG.
Now the question here is that what harm can china do to India by preventing India from NSG and what they can gain? Looking to the India's capability and competence in Nuclear research, India can not not be contained i developing its Nuclear program in civilian Nuclear program or weapon program by denying NSG entry. India has major cooperation with all nuclear power like US , Russia, France. India has agreements with country like Canada and Australia India's cooperation in nuclear technology has not conditioned on its NSG membership. India has civil Nuclear agreement with US. Russian nuclear power plants are already in construction in India. India has hired Nuclear submarine from Russia. Many countries like Australia , Japan and Canada has various agreements with India without India being a member of NSG. So Indian nuclear co operation is not at all conditioned on the India's membership in NSG. No Indian Nuclear ambition can be curtailed by china by denying India the membership in NSG. So china can hardly harm India in achieving her strategic or civil nuclear ambitions. So china is not going to get anything by preventing India from being a member of NSG.
What china is going to loose by opposing the india's entry in NSG:
China's policy to contain india was going well untill modi came to power. However, The aggressive economic and foreign policy of Modi rattled china completely. Initially they tried to pretend that they are friends but latter on it was seen that china is not able to leave its old policy of containing India considering India a rival. Initially Xi came to India and promised big investment. They promised a cooperation in many area. It was felt initially that we India and china is stepping new era of economic friendship and that will be later on extended in another area to resolve border issues and even defense cooperation. However, china could not break strait jacket and adopt a new India policy. Looking at the current condition of china where it is loosing its status of manufacturing hub and economic status, It was best policy for china to be the economic partner and benefit from India's development. China has a huge chunk of money and foreign currency is Trillions of Dollars. When the business in china has not remained very attractive, they should try to find a destination where they can multiply their money and there is no better destination than India. They can invest in india may get some favorable terms an get benefited. However, it seems that china is doing otherwise. If china do not put its policies right, it is very much possible that it may end up like Japan where they have a lots of money but their GDP is shrinking at a rapid pace. They are unable to leveraged their huge chunk of money for any economic benefit or growth. So it is not wise for china to kill a possibility of being more prosperous for some short sighted reasons. Policy of china to contain India seems very reactive in nature lacking any foresightedness. This will hist china very badly if they obstruct india. That will give india free hand to help vietnam and other country to boost nuclear cooperation which will further weaken the china's condition and status in the region. The another grey area is that india is a big nuclear power eligible for a natural entry in NSG. All other countries are supporting. Going against their will will spoil the relationship with other country and attract their wrath.
Negation tactics:
The third possibility I see is that china may be wanting to negotiate with India in some area of its concern, China wanted an entry in SARCC. India was naturally opposed it. Here china can negotiate the entry in SARCC in exchange of support in NSG. The other possible concern of China may nuclear cooperation of India with the countries like Vietnam and Philippines. China negotiate with India for that and settle the issue on mutually agreeable term. The third possibility china may be wanting to negotiate is the entry of Pakistan in NSG. Looking to irresponsible behavior and impression of Pakistan in whole world, china may not success .
Conclusion: The act of opposing India's entry in NSG by china looks reactive in nature without properly calibrating pros and cons. Any opposition f India's entry in NSG will prove counter productive to china's strategic and economic interest. However , if that is a negotiating tactic, china may negotiate with India and may arrive on any mutually agreeable term.