Why Afghanistan's partition may be unpreventable

[musalman]

Afghans you people have met are those who left country during the soviet afgan war and later. We do not expect those people to like Pakistan. They are either the communists or the ppl of the northern alliance. Before, giving judgement on this issue you have to look at the fact that very large population of Afganistan lives in Pakistan. I have yet to meet any bad mouthing Pakistan.

Nevertheless, I do not see any chance of Afghanistan disintegrating, ever !!!!

With regards to Indians wet dream of absorbing Pakistan. Well my friend, i do recognize the fact that India defeated Pakistan in 1971 where we had no chance. 45000 army fighting without ammunition and link with the mainland. Had that been that easy Indian would have tried to take over the Azad Kashmir area, which it do not dare to.

 

[musalman]

Thats pretty good news for the suicide bombers.:thumb:

Its funny most of you Indians just troll rather than add some valuable comments. BTW now the motorway link with Indian border is almost ready !!!!!!!!

 

[IBSA]

Maybe A-stan does an arrange of country between the its several ethnics grupos holding each one a piece of territory in association with a foreign power.

See the plan C
Plan to split up Afghanistan into 'kingdoms' with some ruled by the Taliban | Mail Online

 

[trackwhack]

Its funny most of you Indians just troll rather than add some valuable comments. BTW now the motorway link with Indian border is almost ready !!!!!!!!

Awesome. That paves the way for our army to march in as well.

 

[IBSA]

Its funny most of you Indians just troll rather than add some valuable comments. BTW now the motorway link with Indian border is almost ready !!!!!!!!

Cool, now more shias, hindu, kashmirs, and other persecuted paki minorities can flee out to seek shelter in India.

 

[Ray]

Afghans you people have met are those who left country during the soviet afgan war and later. We do not expect those people to like Pakistan. They are either the communists or the ppl of the northern alliance. Before, giving judgement on this issue you have to look at the fact that very large population of Afganistan lives in Pakistan. I have yet to meet any bad mouthing Pakistan.

Nevertheless, I do not see any chance of Afghanistan disintegrating, ever !!!!

With regards to Indians wet dream of absorbing Pakistan. Well my friend, i do recognize the fact that India defeated Pakistan in 1971 where we had no chance. 45000 army fighting without ammunition and link with the mainland. Had that been that easy Indian would have tried to take over the Azad Kashmir area, which it do not dare to.

As you mentioned that there is the Northern Alliance, you forget that Afghanistan has Hazaras, Uzbek, Tajiks and they form the Northern Alliance. They have tasted autonomy and therefore they will hardly be ready to surrender their autonomy to the Pashtun majority.

If they don't, the situation will be most murky and the outcome cannot be predicted, more so, since they have for a very long time have been settling issues with the Soviets and the US through armed conflict and may not be averse to using this means at will.

The Pashtuns in Kyber Pakhtunkhwa would possibly gravitate towards the Pashtuns in Afghanistan owing to kinship.

That mix can churn the desires of a Pakhtunkhwa country.

One must not forget that Awami National Party is ruling Kyber Pakhtunkhwa and it is the political party of Baccha Khan or Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan who wanted an independent Pakhtunkhwa.

I don't think India has any wet or dry dreams of 'absorbing' Pakistan into India. One would eye a plum, but one would not eye a plum that is rotting! Just an illustration.

 

[nrupatunga]

Russia/Central asian republics will have a say whether a'stan will be divided along north/south axis. These countries would prefer to contain taliban within borders of current day a'stan. The only big power which would want a taliban takeover of entire a'stan would be china. As they can cut a deal with only one guy and exploit the resources of a'stan.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

Would US allow this after the bitter pill USA had to swallow from Pakistan in Afghan war?
If US is against this Pakistan might wind up being split??

The US functions on the basis of 'US security and economic interests' - any argument of US support for a partition of Pakistan would have to elaborate upon the pros and cons (for US security and economic interests) and the resources required to accomplish such an objective.

At this point I don't see any major US economic or security issue being better addressed through a US led partition of Pakistan.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

If Pakistan were allowed to "absorb" Afghanistan the whole war on terror would be a
mockery.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

If Pakistan were allowed to "absorb" Afghanistan the whole war on terror would be a
mockery.

That would be one 'hawkish' point of view.

An alternate view would be that Pakistani intervention in Afghanistan, and its support for factions such as the Taliban, was the result of historic hostility directed at Pakistan from Afghanistan. The rationale behind intervening in Afghanistan and supporting perceived 'pro-Pakistan' groups like the Taliban was to neutralize the Afghan threat to Pakistani territorial integrity and national security. One could therefore then argue that Pakistan's absorption of Afghanistan (or at least of the Pashtun parts of it) would in fact stabilize the region since it would remove the threat to Pakistani territorial integrity and national security that caused Pakistan to intervene in Afghanistan in the first place.

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

FATA is a horrible example. It is complete anarchy and a breeding ground for terrorism.

It is all that, but I was merely pointing out that it is an example of bringing some wildly independent, disparate and unruly tribes under the banner of one nation.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

If this view was not shared by govt the drone attacks would cease??

 

[hit&run]

Division of Afghanistan will be counter productive for India. I don't think Afghans are that fool who will negotiate its division with anyone especially Pakistan who has been irrelevant so far; proved by how ousted they are when its comes to dialogue and nothing they have to offer but trying become relevant by to violence and terrorism they have invested against Afghanistan.

Pakistanis are clever breed, like their loud mouth media anchors talk that its our victory even when we claim 1000% and gain only 50-30% (on water dispute with India).

They needs strategic depth. But at the same time they know they have no leverage what so ever to claim it; in present scenario. The small independent pockets they will have at their western border will serve their purpose well. Even when Afghanistan was ruled by Taliban their range and reach was only around bordering provinces, which is unfortunately a full stretch of Afghanistan's eastern border.

Bhagte chor ke Langoti he sahi.

A fiercely Independent Afghanistan now under the watch of international community having long pending border disputes and ever growing ANA is not Pakistan would like to have on its borders. People those who are trying to sell those Pashtun dominate areas will be hostile to Pakistan are fools.

Pakistan's strategic depth concept is independent of how bad or good Afghans on streets think of them but how much a friendly or easily being bullied ruler of Afghanistan or Provinces accommodates them.

 

[Bhadra]

It is all that, but I was merely pointing out that it is an example of bringing some wildly independent, disparate and unruly tribes under the banner of one nation.

And what is understood by one nation ?
Like Pakistan and Bangladesh were one nation ?

Nationhood in the subcontinent is and has been very diffrent kind of a bird rather than the European bird. Say for example Punjab remained Punjab whether it was under Kaniska, Akbar, British or now parts of India and Pakistan. Similarily, the tribes always remained historically undevided or devided insite of being parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It will be difficult for any one to force them into Pakistani type of Nationalism. The cultural nationalism of Pashtoons if turned into a political force will be akin to awakening Durranies who will rule over Pakistan.

Pakistan is treading on a dangerious path. If Pathans become one, Pakistaniyat will be lost !

 

[Agnostic Muslim]

And what is understood by one nation ?
Like Pakistan and Bangladesh were one nation ?

There are significant differences between the case of East Pakistan and the Pakhtun's in Pakistan - geographic separation, lack of representation in accordance with the size of Bengali population etc. The most significant factors behind the unrest in East Pakistan are absent in the case of the Pakistani Pashtun.

Nationhood in the subcontinent is and has been very diffrent kind of a bird rather than the European bird. Say for example Punjab remained Punjab whether it was under Kaniska, Akbar, British or now parts of India and Pakistan. Similarily, the tribes always remained historically undevided or devided insite of being parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It will be difficult for any one to force them into Pakistani type of Nationalism. The cultural nationalism of Pashtoons if turned into a political force will be akin to awakening Durranies who will rule over Pakistan.

You are conflating two very similar yet not quite analogous concepts - 'Pakistani nationalism' vs 'Uniting under the flag of Pakistan'.

Nationalism/patriotism comes with time, with integration into a society/nation, with a sense of 'belonging' etc.

Unification under the flag of a single nation can be (not guaranteed by any means) prequel to nationalism/patriotism. FATA is an example of 'unification under the flag of Pakistan', and while a degree of 'integration into Pakistan' has been accomplished (note the failure of the Afghan's historically to successfully incite the tribes into revolting against Pakistan and joining Afghanistan), the process is by no means complete. What the example of FATA illustrates is that it is possible to 'unite disparate and autonomous tribal groups under the flag of one nation' - where FATA is a failure is in terms of a subsequent comprehensive integration of said tribal groups into the political, economic and administrative mainstream of the country.

This is obviously a long term process, and the FATA tribes have indeed built linkages across Pakistan, from Rawalpindi to Quetta to Karachi, but those links affect to small a number and are not part of any sustained government driven process to integrate FATA into the rest of the country, politically or economically.

Pakistan is treading on a dangerious path. If Pathans become one, Pakistaniyat will be lost !

What is interesting is that the FATA tribes, from what I know, are quite divided about the idea of being integrated into the Pakistani province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa - many in fact support the idea of a separate province, or more. The KP Hazara community (Hindko speaking residents of KP, not to be confused with the ethnic Hazara of Balochistan and Afghanistan) are also demanding a separate province carved out of KP. Of course the ANP adamantly opposes these demands but the demands highlight the differences and divergent interests of the Pakistani Pashtun community,

 

[rock127]

Thread title should be like ---> "Why Pakistan's partition may be unpreventable" but in case AFG gets partitioned then Pakistan might lose FATA.

 

[rock127]

Thread title should be like ---> "Why Pakistan's partition may be unpreventable" but in case AFG gets partitioned then Pakistan might lose FATA.

Afgans deserve their land beyond Durand Line.

 

[Bhadra]

@ Agnostic Muslim

Extension of your arguments -

Pakhtoons, Baloch, Sindhies and Punjabies can be better Indian nationals rather than being better Pakistanies.

That is what is the cultural concept of Akhand Bharat ! It was there and it shall remain in spite of political separations or all being different states.

Indian history is is not bereft of instances when many Indian states got together to face foreign invasion and fought under one flag not necessarily under religious flag.

 

[hello_10]

Will never happen for start !!!! If it ever happens, than pushtuns from Pakistan won't be joining the pushtuns on western side to form a greater pushtunistan. In fact it will be the other way around. Before you Indian trolls start your work, read this first. With the construction of Islamabad Peshwar motorway, pushtuns are now 1 hour drive from Islamabad and 5 from Lahore. Because of this they started investing in Lahore Karachi and Islamabad. Now the situation is nearly 100% of Pakistani transport sector is in the hands of Pushtun Pakistanis. The largest pushtun presence in any city is Karachi followed by Islamabad and Lahore.

I can't really see how the author justifies his conclusion that a 'partitioned Afghanistan would result in the Pashtun majority territory posing a significant challenge to Pakistan' given that Pakistan has more than twice the Pashtun population of Afghanistan with the Pakistani Pashtun's integrated into the military and business interests across Pakistan.

If anything, a partition of Afghanistan would inevitable result in the Pashtun regions of a 'partitioned Afghanistan' being absorbed into Pakistan.

boss, a nation stands as it is, if its the first identity of its civilians. I mean, people of Pakistan dont recognize themselves as 'Pakistanis' first, but their first identity is Punjabi, Pashtun, Baloch, Sindhi, Mohajir etc. and the biggest problem they face when they start recognizing themselves as "Muslim First", which then means to serve Islam first, and then number of nation/ being Pakistanis also comes. and even in this certain case, being Muslim first is not enough as now you have Sectarian Wars as Sunni-Shia, (including Baloch-Punjabi, Sindhi-Punjabi, Mohajir-Punjabi, Pushtun-Punjabi-Mohajir etc). hence now you are fighting for "Sunni First", which then brings Shia on the same state as Ahmadis, Mohajirs, with other religious minorities like Hindu, Sikhs etc. like how you have lost Bangladesh as they were Bengali first, while you are Punjabi/Sunni First, and then being Pakistanis too :ranger:

you don't have your identity as "Pakistanis First". and hence you have problem of Secterian War even in financial center also, as daily Target Killings, which is mainly to target Mohajir/Shia, including Sindhis to establish dominance of Punjabi identity in Karachi, while Pushtun's have their own stake as they have entered in big numbers in Karachi too.....

A nation stands as it is, if its the first Identity of its all the civilians. like how being 'Indian' is the First Identity of Indians, then they are Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Punjabis, Bengalis, Tamil, Kashmiris, Biharis, Maharastriyan, Telgu etc also....

 

[roma]

that was not what i had posted ..... pls delete