Whose Side Are We On?

Singh

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SinghJi, if I understand correctly, you are suggesting a hands off approach and waiting for Pakistan to either improve itself or implode or explode.

Again, we are a passive spectator in either case. Not a great scenario for us as we suffer in the meanwhile.
Vinodji,

I was trying to poke holes in the authors suggestions, his suggestions that it is India which should go all out to help Pakistan and it is us that hold the key to Pakistan's problems will be both impractical and unfruitful.

Unfortunately, I don't see the present Indian govt. becoming an active player in this whole fiasco. Fortunately though the US, UK etc. have taken it upon themselves to force Pak to go after the Jihadis. We can with some deft consummate handling use the West to achieve our short term goals in Pakistan.
 

prahladh

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The only conflict (seed) is the Kashmir issue. Even if Gilani comes into power and the Pak Army amends its ways, the seed will still remain. Peace between both countries depends only on this issue getting solved. Either give them away or stop talks and declare Kashmir as Integral part of India forever and risk a final show-down.

The problems arising from Implosion of Pak into several states might be more than what can fit in a one-liner. Suppose the implosion happens (god forbid), with the seed still intact, what if some of the states still demand Kashmir. So, better deal with one Pak than Multiple. IMO
 

Vinod2070

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Vinodji,

I was trying to poke holes in the authors suggestions, his suggestions that it is India which should go all out to help Pakistan and it is us that hold the key to Pakistan's problems will be both impractical and unfruitful.

Unfortunately, I don't see the present Indian govt. becoming an active player in this whole fiasco. Fortunately though the US, UK etc. have taken it upon themselves to force Pak to go after the Jihadis. We can with some deft consummate handling use the West to achieve our short term goals in Pakistan.
Agreed. India doesn't have much leverage with Pakistan. But USA has its own interests in Pakistan and they are mostly focused on the Western Borders now. So Indian interests take a distant back seat. Only if India makes some military moves that USA starts pressurizing Pakistan.

So back to square one. :((

Not a nice feeling.
 

Vinod2070

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Yes, only implosion and breaking apart of Pakistan into smaller states seems to be the solution as far as India is concerned. India should not take hands-off approach, instead it should covertly support and act as catalyst to speed up its implosion. If it is not for US, Saudi and China, Pakistan would have imploded long time ago. All these countries are putting Pakistan on oxygen and keeping it from implosion for their own interests.

US keeping Pakistan afloat to fight against the Talibans and military transport and may be as hedge against India on a long term basis.

Saudi Arabia is trying keep Pakistan afloat because it is the only Islamic country with a nuclear bomb which might be of help in the future for Saudia in case Iran gets its hands on them.

China is keeping Pakistan afloat to use it against India and to keep India on boil for as long as possible. Giving nukes, missiles, money are all indicators to this point.

With these masters backing Pakistan, the PA will never backdown on the hostility against India. So, the only option left for India is to speed up the process of Pakistan's implosion and the small states arising out of such situation are much more manageable and amenable to Indian interests.

I don't see another solution to this misery.
Probably the best outcome for everyone in the region. Is it really possible with the nukes in the picture?

Only if USA gets effectively involved and is in.
 

Hawk

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With these masters backing Pakistan, the PA will never backdown on the hostility against India. So, the only option left for India is to speed up the process of Pakistan's implosion and the small states arising out of such situation are much more manageable and amenable to Indian interests.

I don't see another solution to this misery.
Though this sounds the only possible solution for now, but what could be possible strategy to keep China and others at bay, when their think-tanks are planning the same for India?
 

Daredevil

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Though this sounds the only possible solution for now, but what could be possible strategy to keep China and others at bay, when their think-tanks are planning the same for India?
We need to give more voice to Baloch independence struggle and give impetus to other movements asking for independent Pashtunistan, Sindh and Baltistan. This is the right time to do it, when PA is occupied fighting Taliban and we can also force them to move their forces towards western borders by making some hostile movements on our side of the border. This is also right time because their economy is weak and they don't have enough money to fight so many proxy wars. Just keep bleeding them just as they were doing to us. Since we are a big country we can take the pain, but Pakistan will break.

After saying all this will be much easily possible when we can get US on our side or convince them that breaking of Pakistan is in their interests as well.
 

GokuInd

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Thought, I may add this:

Saudi Arabia's political clout in Pakistan

Saudi Arabia's political clout in Pakistan
C. Raja Mohan Posted online: Monday , Sep 07, 2009 at 1416 hrs
AMIDST the clamour in Pakistan to put the former president Pervez Musharraf on trial for his many unconstitutional acts, one of his advisers Mushahid Hussain declared that 'just one phone call from Saudi Arabia will stop all the non-sense' about sending the General to the prison house.

Hussain is a former editor who morphed himself into a politico and served many masters including Nawaz Sharif. Hussain has not lost any of his reputation for utter clarity (bordering on the cynical) and the capacity to cut through a complex debate.

The House of Saud has not yet dialled Islamabad. It has done one better. It has summoned all the top figures of Pakistan to discuss the latest political crisis. Among those who serenaded themselves in Riyadh last week were Rehman Malik, a close adviser to Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Gen. Musharraf himself. Sharif heads for Saudi Arabia this week.

The latest crisis follows Sharif's campaign to have Gen. Musharraf tried and sent to prison. Sharif wants revenge for Musharraf's coup against him in October 1999. Zardari, who is in power because of a deal between his late wife Benazir and Musharraf, has no reason to ask the judiciary to revisit that mutually beneficial understanding. We don't

know where the current Army Chief, Gen Ashfaq Kayani, stands. Will he protect his predecessor or hang him?

It is into this minefield that Saudi Arabia has boldly stepped into.

This is certainly not the first time. In the last two decades, Saudi power in Islamabad has grown enormously. More than the US President, it is the Saudi King who is now the real arbiter of Pakistan's domestic politics.

After Musharraf's coup against Sharif, the Saudis got the former prime minister out of prison and gave him political asylum. When Sharif broke his promise not to play politics and landed in Pakistan, the Saudis lifted him right back from the airport tarmac. When the US was brokering a deal between Musharraf and Benazir, the Saudis put

Sharif back in play against the wishes of President George Bush and Musharraf.

That Saudi Arabia can exercise such influence in a country of more than 160 million people with a powerful army equipped with nuclear weapons should tell us two things about Pakistan.

One. For all the shared history and culture, the Pakistani state is very unlike ours. As a 'frontier state' (some Pakistani liberals might call it a 'rentier state'), Pakistan is organised on a different set of rules. In a frontier state, there is no separation between the internal and the external. The frontier and rentier states deal with external benefactors with a kind of ease that normal states can never imagine. They don't define national sovereignty in opposition to the external world.

Two. If the House of Saud is now an integral part of Pakistani politics, it makes sense for Delhi to treat Riyadh as a neighbour and engage it intensively and on a strategic basis.

(C. Raja Mohan is currently the Henry A. Kissinger Chair in Foreign Policy and International Affairs at the Library of Congress, Washington DC).
 

Yusuf

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Yusuf, that means our role is no more than a spectator waiting for Pakistan to start behaving.

And suffer till they take their own sweet time!

I see your point but not an ideal situation for a country of India's size. We should be able to influence the events rather than wait for them to happen or worse hope for it.
We have no leverage in that country to influence. Any attempt by India to meddle there will be taken as an agrresive act. Pakistan is not say Sri Lanka that we can influence.
India has to keep the door open for Pakistan. When it choses to enter, welcome them. Till then guard that door.
 

Vinod2070

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Yep, and also weaken them internally so we need to guard less here.

Sigh! A long and trying period for our RAW and our security agencies!
 

Vinod2070

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Also, they are open to getting pushed around by anyone, USA, China, Saudis!

The belligerence is reserved for India only.

Let us also push you around a little bhai. Hamne kya bura kiya hai! ;)
 

Singh

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Yes, only implosion and breaking apart of Pakistan into smaller states seems to be the solution as far as India is concerned.

I don't see another solution to this misery.
I have another solution ie $.

What if Pakistan aligns itself to India economically. ?

Pakistani Punjab and Sindh have fertile cheap land, plenty labour and relatively good infrastructure, a 160million population which Indian companies can exploit, Karachi port can be used to ferry goods to and from NW India and pipelines from Central Asia and Iran can be used to transport gas to India.

Indian investments will ensure that India doesn't act against Pak and Pakistani GDP will take a hit if it acts against India.

A broken up Pakistan might serve us but can also cause more problems to us. A broken up India has been a source of trouble for the world for eg.

An economic relationship can possibly be a win-win situation.
 

Singh

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The only conflict (seed) is the Kashmir issue. Even if Gilani comes into power and the Pak Army amends its ways, the seed will still remain. Peace between both countries depends only on this issue getting solved. Either give them away or stop talks and declare Kashmir as Integral part of India forever and risk a final show-down.
Pakistanis use Kashmir issue to claim the validity of 2 nation theory and Indians use Kashmir to claim the fallacy of 2 nation theory.
I don't see either side backing down in the near future.
 

Daredevil

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For that to happen, they have to stop terrorism in India. Indian public and politicians will not allow economic relation with Pakistan while they maim our people. Moreover, their army will never let the relations normalize, case in point, Kargil.

As long as they are kept afloat by the three masters, they are not going to come to us for trade. They have been living dangerously without caring for their population by waging wars against India which they are bound to lose. Their Army will not care even if people die but they want to wage war with India and take Kashmir.

I have another solution ie $.

What if Pakistan aligns itself to India economically. ?

Pakistani Punjab and Sindh have fertile cheap land, plenty labour and relatively good infrastructure, a 160million population which Indian companies can exploit, Karachi port can be used to ferry goods to and from NW India and pipelines from Central Asia and Iran can be used to transport gas to India.

Indian investments will ensure that India doesn't act against Pak and Pakistani GDP will take a hit if it acts against India.

A broken up Pakistan might serve us but can also cause more problems to us. A broken up India has been a source of trouble for the world for eg.

An economic relationship can possibly be a win-win situation.
 

Singh

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This is all assuming the present circumstances continue and Pakistanis would rather see their nation collapse. A change in leadership is all it takes.

I don't see any way, in the near future, India can outplay Pakistan and their "masters" and succeed in breaking up Pakistan. However, some pro- Indian investment rules by Pakistan can pique the interests of the Indian businessmen who have strong lobbies in the govt.

An economic inter-dependence would ensure greater need for peace and the decline of hawks on either side dictated purely by monetary needs.

An attempt to break Pakistan would ensure that the proxy war against us would not only intensify but become bloodier.

For that to happen, they have to stop terrorism in India. Indian public and politicians will not allow economic relation with Pakistan while they maim our people. Moreover, their army will never let the relations normalize, case in point, Kargil.

As long as they are kept afloat by the three masters, they are not going to come to us for trade. They have been living dangerously without caring for their population by waging wars against India which they are bound to lose. Their Army will not care even if people die but they want to wage war with India and take Kashmir.
 

Yusuf

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I have another solution ie $.

What if Pakistan aligns itself to India economically. ?

Pakistani Punjab and Sindh have fertile cheap land, plenty labour and relatively good infrastructure, a 160million population which Indian companies can exploit, Karachi port can be used to ferry goods to and from NW India and pipelines from Central Asia and Iran can be used to transport gas to India.

Indian investments will ensure that India doesn't act against Pak and Pakistani GDP will take a hit if it acts against India.

A broken up Pakistan might serve us but can also cause more problems to us. A broken up India has been a source of trouble for the world for eg.

An economic relationship can possibly be a win-win situation.
Pakistan doenst want to give us any leverage whatsoever. So they will not allow that to happen. India granted Pakistan an MFN quite a few years ago, but Pakistan did not reciprocate.
Remember any involvement of India there makes it feel threatened though there is no need for it. But mutual suspicion will remain and there is no ice breaker here as there is no stable government there with a single minded aim or policy towards resolving any issue with India.
 

Singh

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Pakistan doenst want to give us any leverage whatsoever. So they will not allow that to happen. India granted Pakistan an MFN quite a few years ago, but Pakistan did not reciprocate.

Remember any involvement of India there makes it feel threatened though there is no need for it. But mutual suspicion will remain and there is no ice breaker here as there is no stable government there with a single minded aim or policy towards resolving any issue with India.
Circumstances dictate changes.

Pakistan then was doing well economically, it was given billions of dollars as reimbursements for WoT, today its economy is in doldrums, its surviving on aid and "charity".

Pakistan doesn't have a large domestic market like India nor can it become an export oriented economy like China and the world is still to come out of the recession.

Pakistan has several choices, let the impasse continue and depend on God's will or take aggressive measures.

If they do nothing at most they can barely survive on bits and pieces or collapse.

If they take aggressive measures they can either hasten the collapse or come out of the mess.

One of the means by which they can come out of the mess is by fostering greater economic relations with India. There are numerous reasons how this will help Pakistan.

Indian aim wrt Pakistan is ensuring that Pakistan ceases to be a security threat and it wouldn't hurt if we are to benefit from Pakistan economically.

At present India is a mere spectator in the whole fiasco and will be for the foreseeable future. In the meanwhile Pakistan will find it hard to solve the economic mess and at the same time maintain military parity with India while India continues to expand its economy and military.

At an opportune time in the future we can present two options on the table to Pak:

1. work with us - greater co-operation, acknowledge our economic might

2. work against us - our patience has run out, we are going to war.

This will present Pak clearly two options when that will ensure their destruction and significant damage to us and second will ensure their survival and our economic benefit.
 

Daredevil

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Its all a matter of when PA will blink. The day it blinks and allows economic ties to develop, then what you are saying is possible. But the million dollar question is, will PA blink?.

A change in political leadership means squat. It is the Army that is powerful in Pakistan. Despite Zardari's pro-India approach he couldn't do anything and he is being firmly checked by Pakistan Amry through Gilani. It has deposed many a democratically elected leaders when it felt it is threatened by the moves of such national leaders (For eg. Benazir Bhutto).It is the stranglehold of PA on pakistani politics that needs to be broken, until then I see no progress whatsoever.

This is all assuming the present circumstances continue and Pakistanis would rather see their nation collapse. A change in leadership is all it takes.

I don't see any way, in the near future, India can outplay Pakistan and their "masters" and succeed in breaking up Pakistan. However, some pro- Indian investment rules by Pakistan can pique the interests of the Indian businessmen who have strong lobbies in the govt.

An economic inter-dependence would ensure greater need for peace and the decline of hawks on either side dictated purely by monetary needs.

An attempt to break Pakistan would ensure that the proxy war against us would not only intensify but become bloodier.
 

Daredevil

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At an opportune time in the future we can present two options on the table to Pak:

1. work with us - greater co-operation, acknowledge our economic might

2. work against us - our patience has run out, we are going to war.

This will present Pak clearly two options when that will ensure their destruction and significant damage to us and second will ensure their survival and our economic benefit.
If history is any indicator, Pakistan has repeatedly chosen choice 2. I don't see anything different in future as well.
 

Hawk

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We really need to find an innovative idea to tackle pakistan, as mentioned by Singh, India aligning developed parts of pakistan, but ISI wont let that do(remember eating grass but built missile concept of pakistan) so ISI(army's think tank) is the biggest hurdle in developing peace between two nations...why don't we try to weaken ISI- split them into groups, within fights, block their finances, creating unrest among pakistanis against ISI citing they are the main reason for present devastation in pakistan and other such things.
 

Singh

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If history is any indicator, Pakistan has repeatedly chosen choice 2. I don't see anything different in future as well.
because it could afford to in the past.
In the foreseeable future, we would be too powerful and nonchalant and they would be too weak and desperate

Its all a matter of when PA will blink. The day it blinks and allows economic ties to develop, then what you are saying is possible. But the million dollar question is, will PA blink?.

A change in political leadership means squat. It is the Army that is powerful in Pakistan. Despite Zardari's pro-India approach he couldn't do anything and he is being firmly checked by Pakistan Amry through Gilani. It has deposed many a democratically elected leaders when it felt it is threatened by the moves of such national leaders (For eg. Benazir Bhutto).It is the stranglehold of PA on pakistani politics that needs to be broken, until then I see no progress whatsoever.
PA's stranglehold on Pakistani govt and society is diminishing.

Islamists are against the Army, the landlords and middle class are pro-democracy.

In Pakistan's history never has a dictator been removed under pressure (Lawyer's movement, foreign pressure etc.), and today the PA bends over backwards under US pressure, is targeted by the islamists and has to agree to defence budget cuts dictated by IMF. It was severely criticised for Lal Masjid operations, deeply resented in Bstan, supplanted by LeT during Kashmir earthquake and is fighting a bloody insurgency against its own people with massive collateral damage.
 

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