Which 2 countries are most likely to go to war over the next decades?

kickok1975

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Uighurs are not always hate Han Chinese, just like Indian and Pakistanis are not always hate each other. Some Uighurs are pretty active in Chinese life. Like this man, Örkesh Dölet (Wuer Kaixi). One of the most famous student leader in 1989 Tianman Square and still very vocal recently.

 

kickok1975

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Back to topic. No one would benefit from an India-Pakistan war. Such war will destroy all the achievements made by Indian people in last 20 years and could potentially dismantle Pakistan into pieces where only gorilla and war lord would prosper. Any conscientious Indian and Pakistanis should do everything they can to prevent it from happening.
 

pmaitra

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Back to topic. No one would benefit from an India-Pakistan war. Such war will destroy all the achievements made by Indian people in last 20 years and could potentially dismantle Pakistan into pieces where only gorilla and war lord would prosper. Any conscientious Indian and Pakistanis should do everything they can to prevent it from happening.
It ain't happening bud!

Pakistan will not cease to cause trouble for India. Moreover, Pakistan is an aggregation multiple power centres. It is not a single window system.

Have you seen those large black ants that make nests atop trees? You poke into the nest, the jumble of ants fall and they run helter and skelter everywhere and come back to bite you? Pakistanis are like that with multiple autonomous entities doing whatever they feel like. It is worse than a fish-market.

I don't want war, but our experience with Pakistan says we will continue to fight, either overtly or covertly. This is the unpleasant reality.
 
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kickok1975

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It ain't happening bud!

Pakistan will not cease to cause trouble for India. Moreover, Pakistan is an aggregation multiple power centres. It is not a single window system.

Have you seen those large black ants that make nests atop trees? You poke into the nest, the jumble of ants fall and they run helter and skelter everywhere and come back to bite you? Pakistanis like that with multiple autonomous entities doing whatever they feel like. It is worse than a fish-market.

I don't want war, but our experience with Pakistan says we will continue to fight, either overtly or covertly. This is the unpleasant reality.
Do all Pakistanis act like that or just a small group of people? That's a very important question one need ask.
 

pmaitra

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Do all Pakistanis act like that or just a small group of people? That's a very important question one need ask.
I would say most.

No, not all are like that. I have the impression that pacifists are a minority in Pakistan and compromise is often mistaken as cowardice. This is reflected in whatever is happening in Pakistan today.
 

Ray

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India Pakistan wars timespan is controlled by international players.

They are very short.

Pakistan under best conditions, if not helped by their Arab friends, will not last for more than 3 weeks economically and less in terms of munition and weaponry.

In the current state, they will hardly be able to sustain their war.

Therefore, to exist, they will resort to nuclear weapons.

Then.....

Pakistan?
 

Ray

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Do all Pakistanis act like that or just a small group of people? That's a very important question one need ask.
Their education system and books teaches them to hate India, Hindus and all that. They are taught that India means Hindus, which is not correct since India has a large Muslim community (3rd largest in the world), Christians, Jews, Jains, Buddhists (not counting the Tibetan exiles) and so on.

The education system in Pakistan and its anti Indian and anti Hindu slant has been criticised by Pakistani Commissions on Education. Hoodbhoy is one of those chaps who has criticised the education curriculum.

According to Sustainable Development Policy Institute since 1970's Pakistani school textbooks have systematically inculcated hatred towards India and Hindus through historical revisionism.

Anti-Indian sentiments, coupled with anti-Hindu prejudices have existed in Pakistan since its formation on account of Pakistan being an Islamic theocracy, alternated with military dictatorship, and India being a secular state with a civilian government.

According to Tufts University professor Seyyed Vali Reza Nasr, Indophobia in Pakistan increased with the ascendancy of the militant Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami under Sayyid Abul Ala Maududi.. Indophobia, together with Anti-Hinduism and racist ideologies, such as Martial Race theory, were the driving factors behind the re-writing of school textbooks in Pakistan (in both "secular" schools and Islamic madrassahs) in order to promote a biased and revisionist historiography of the Indian subcontinent that promulgated Indophobic and anti-Hindu prejudices. These narratives are combined with Islamist propaganda in the extensive revising of Pakistan's history. By propagating concepts such as jihad, the inferiority of non-Muslims, India's perceived ingrained enmity with Pakistan, etc., the textbook board publications used by all government schools promote an obscurantist mindset.

According to the historian Professor Mubarak Ali, textbook "reform" in Pakistan began with the introduction of Pakistan Studies and Islamic studies by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in 1971 into the national curriculum as a compulsory subject. Former military dictator Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, under a general drive towards Islamization, started the process of historical revisionism in earnest and exploited this initiative. 'The Pakistani establishment taught their children right from the beginning that this state was built on the basis of religion – that's why they don't have tolerance for other religions and want to wipe-out all of them.'.

According to Pakistani physicist, Pervez Hoodbhoy, the Islamist revisionism of Pakistan's schools began in 1976 when an act of parliament required all government and private schools (except those teaching the British O-levels from Grade 9) to follow a curriculum that includes learning outcomes for the federally approved Grade 5 social studies class such as: 'Acknowledge and identify forces that may be working against Pakistan,' 'Make speeches on Jihad,' 'Collect pictures of policemen, soldiers, and national guards,' and 'India's evil designs against Pakistan.' Likewise, Yvette Rosser criticizes Pakistani textbooks for propagating jingoist and irredentist beliefs about Pakistan's history and culture, and being negationist in it's depiction of political Islam and the treatment of minorities in Pakistan, such as Hindus and Christians. Irredentism is manifested through claims of "eternal Pakistan" (despite the country being created from British India only in 1947), narrow and sectarian interpretation of Islam, downplaying the tolerant aspects of the religion and focusing on Islamic Fundamentalist interpretations (such as all banking being un-Islamic), and making accusations of dual loyalty on minority Hindus and Christians in Pakistan.

A study by Nayyar & Salim of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute concluded in 2003 that there is an increasing trend where children are taught Pakistan Studies as a replacement for the teaching of history and geography as full fledged disciplines. Previously, children were taught the very early pre-Islamic history of South Asia and its contribution to rich cultural diversity of modern-day Pakistan. This long historical perspective of Pakistan is absent these Pakistan Studies textbooks. Instead, children are now taught that the history of Pakistan starts from the day the first Muslim set foot in India. The study reported that the textbooks also had a lot of gender-biased stereotypes and other perspectives that "encourage prejudice, bigotry and discrimination towards fellow Pakistanis and other nations, especially against religious minorities, as well as the omission of concepts ... that could encourage critical self awareness among students".

According to Ayesha Jalal, "Pakistan's history textbooks amongst the best available sources for assessing the nexus between power and bigotry in creative imaginings of a national past." She points out authors whose "expansive pan- Islamic imaginings" detect the beginnings of Pakistan in the birth of Islam on the Arabian pensinsula. A Text Book of Pakistan Studies claims that Pakistan "came to be established for the first time when the Arabs under Mohammad bin Qasim occupied Sind and Multan'; by the thirteenth century 'Pakistan had spread to include the whole of Northern India and Bengal' and then under the Khiljis, Pakistan moved further south-ward to include a greater part of Central India and the Deccan'. The spirit of Pakistan asserted itself', and under Aurangzeb the 'Pakistan spirit gathered in strength'; his death 'weakened the Pakistan spirit'." Jalal points out that even an acclaimed scholar like Jamil Jalibi questions the validity of a national history that seeks to "claim Pakistan's pre-Islamic past" in an attempt to compete with India's historic antiquity. K.Ali's two volume history designed for B.A students traces the pre-history of the 'Indo-Pakistan' subcontinent to the paleolithic age and consistently refers to the post-1947 frontiers of Pakistan while discussing the Dravidians and the Aryans.
 

p2prada

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US-Libya anyone.

..................................
 

neo29

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surely in the coming years US will do something about NK.
 

sandeepdg

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Forget India-Pakistan, we are destined to play this cat-and mouse game till a permanent solution is reached. On top of the list of nations that can get involved in a war will be North Korea-South Korea and US/Israel - Iran. Also, to some extent Colombia and Venezuela given the recent hostile actions between them. But you all forgot an important happening- the recent hostilities that erupted between Cambodia and Thailand. Actually, the problem's been raging since late 19th century, but it took a violent turn since 2008 when Cambodia decided to get the Preah Vihear temple registered as an UNESCO world heritage site. Some pics of the same :

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/n...bodia-Thailand-Border-Dispute-Pictures?page=1
 

kickok1975

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Forget India-Pakistan, we are destined to play this cat-and mouse game till a permanent solution is reached. On top of the list of nations that can get involved in a war will be North Korea-South Korea and US/Israel - Iran. Also, to some extent Colombia and Venezuela given the recent hostile actions between them. But you all forgot an important happening- the recent hostilities that erupted between Cambodia and Thailand. Actually, the problem's been raging since late 19th century, but it took a violent turn since 2008 when Cambodia decided to get the Preah Vihear temple registered as an UNESCO world heritage site. Some pics of the same :

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/n...bodia-Thailand-Border-Dispute-Pictures?page=1
What kind of permanent solution? Full scale Nuclear war or eventual reconciliation? Since both countries are door by door and no other place to move out, it seems no other choice but to learn how to deal with each other.
 

sandeepdg

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What kind of permanent solution? Full scale Nuclear war or eventual reconciliation? Since both countries are door by door and no other place to move out, it seems no other choice but to learn how to deal with each other.
It can be anything, though I and everybody else would prefer a peaceful reconciliation, but chances for that are quite slim, as evident from Pakistan's attitude over the past six decades.
 

kickok1975

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It can be anything, though I and everybody else would prefer a peaceful reconciliation, but chances for that are quite slim, as evident from Pakistan's attitude over the past six decades.
I think Bollywood and many common cultures, language shared by both countries are doing a good job of reconciliation. Also Nuclear weapon, believe it or not, acts as best deterrent for war to happen.
 

Neil

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What kind of permanent solution? Full scale Nuclear war or eventual reconciliation? Since both countries are door by door and no other place to move out, it seems no other choice but to learn how to deal with each other.
we have learnt to deal with each other since last 60 years but its getting tough now....terrorist attacks are increasingly testing our tolerance and u never know when it breaks...reconciliation is possible in a limited way but permanent solution is impossible[pakistan lives with hatred toward India]...
i dont expect a peaceful solution not in this century for sure its simply building castles in air...there are too many problems and too little solution!!
 

kickok1975

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we have learnt to deal with each other since last 60 years but its getting tough now....terrorist attacks are increasingly testing our tolerance and u never know when it breaks...reconciliation is possible in a limited way but permanent solution is impossible[pakistan lives with hatred toward India]...
i dont expect a peaceful solution not in this century for sure its simply building castles in air...there are too many problems and too little solution!!
Yes, I think terrorist attack is most dangerous thing to test India's nerve and could turn the clock around with a full scale war break out. That's the worst scenario.
 

Neil

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Good point. Yes, right now, that one should be included in the list.
US is far too stretched right now....if they wanted to go to war they would go against Iran but the irony is they cant...covert war is possible but not more...
 

pmaitra

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US is far too stretched right now....if they wanted to go to war they would go against Iran but the irony is they cant...covert war is possible but not more...
They are stretched, yes. However, that will not stop the US from carrying out bombing raids or missile strikes. One does not necessarily have to deploy troops on the ground in order to start a war. If you see the recent reports, the US is indeed considering punitive actions. It's wait and watch for now.

Keep in mind the US needs Libyan oil, so it might actually try to show the anti-Gaddafi faction that it is their 'friend', if you know what I am implying.

See this Thread: Uprising in Libya.
 
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Ray

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Yes, I think terrorist attack is most dangerous thing to test India's nerve and could turn the clock around with a full scale war break out. That's the worst scenario.
I seriously doubt it.

The Mumbai carnage should have done it, but it did not!
 

Neil

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They are stretched, yes. However, that will not stop the US from carrying out bombing raids or missile strikes. One does not necessarily have to deploy troops on the ground in order to start a war. If you see the recent reports, the US is indeed considering punitive actions. It's wait and watch for now.

Keep in mind the US needs Libyan oil, so it might actually try to show the anti-Gaddafi faction that it is their 'friend', if you know what I am implying.

See this Thread: Uprising in Libya.
pmaitra bhai....true they can bombard Libya, they are already mulling ''no-fly zone options'' which mean using military to dismantle enemy air defense assets....but this plan can misfire as anti-america is high in Libya and also there is lot of chaos in Libya....a single bomb falls at a wrong place and US plans will be sinking along with it so guess US - Libya war is still remote-my views...
 

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