What if the American decline never happens?

Discussion in 'Americas' started by bengalraider, Oct 1, 2011.

  1. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Absolutely. There are many boundaries dividing them culturally, linguistically, socially, economically and politically. For example, eastern Europeans, though all those nations being a part of EU, are looked down upon by a majority of Western Europeans.
     
  2. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    Um... yeah, BRICS isn't even an entity but a stupid name some Yank gave to them.

    And the "BRICS" are also facing their own potential financial crisis, Europe already has a leg dealing with the problem while they haven't even started. Europe is better situated than the US too since they haven't started either.

    Even today, Russia is no match for Europe except in a nuclear capacity. The conventional forces of the EU could run over them in a matter of months. You are talking about $360 billion to $50 billion defence budget wise and a generational difference in most technology as the bulk of their force is rusted Soviet junk.

    Despite the freeze on most EU defence spending, they won't come close to it in a hundred years. Their economies will level out and so will their military. There will never be a BRIC military block to even speak of.

    I guess that is why Europe did most of the work in Libya?

    France welcomes the rise of Brazil, India and Russian militaries as France becomes one of their main suppliers.
     
  3. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yeah, it isn't and may never be. I am just replying to GK who is comparing BRICS economies to Europe in this discussion. We all know that it isn't a entity, its just hypothetical here.

    What crisis, we are in a much better position than the West, at least India and China are. Don't know much about the others though.

    The conventional forces of Europe that have some standing in front of Russia, most comprises that of UK, France and Germany. Maybe Italy and Spain to some extent. Rest all are as good as nothing. And 70% of that conventional force won't even reach halfway across to Russia before they get incinerated by Russian missile forces.

    As I said, there was never a BRIC military block and maybe there never will be. Use some grey matter and don't take everything literally ! Anyway, EU defense spending is again mainly due to a handful of major countries like France, UK, Germany, Italy etc. If I leave out France, then rest all countries combined defense budget will be surpassed individually by India, China and most probably Russia too. 100 years, my ass ! See how the situation changes over the next 3 decades.

    Yeah, and just like your NATO big brother, US, you messed up that nation which is increasingly looking towards falling into mass anarchy and sectarian violence, just like US messed up Iraq and NATO is shitting int pants in Afghanistan.

    So finally you see the bright side in all this ! So why crib, just sit back, rake in the greenbacks, and enjoy the show :)
     
  4. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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  5. niharjhatn

    niharjhatn Regular Member

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    And yet they are pooling their resources to help an ailing country in Greece!

    Where else do you see such comradeship? If any asian economy collapsed, will there ever be such support?
     
  6. W.G.Ewald

    W.G.Ewald Defence Professionals/ DFI member of 2 Defence Professionals

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    Maybe not, but Obama blamed the Japanese earthquake and the "Arab Spring" for economic reverses in the US. :confused:
     
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  7. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    I wish USA does not go down at least in next 10 years... It will also bring down many many others with it... make no mistake it will also be end of china story...
     
  8. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    ^^ Yep. Only thoroughly useless nations like Pakistan want the US to go down. Neither Europe, nor India, nor China wants the US to go down for the next 1-2 decades.
     
  9. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Pakistan is a PARASITE state that feeds on others... it is this Pakistan that still accepts aids from very same USA & western countries...
     
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  10. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Read the interesting article posted by in the link above by me. It will tell that the US will around for most part of the 21st century, only other nations will grow stronger and gain substantial clout in the world due their size and their economy.
     
  11. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, because there's no such thing as the Asian Union, in the first place. And who will support whom in Asia, when 90 % of the countries are third worldcountries who are themselves suffering from poverty of varying degrees. That's not the case with Europe with most countries being first-world economies and other being middle income countries like those in Eastern Europe and CIS states.

    Apply some logic before you compare.
     
  12. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    India is no shining light... property bubble, tech bubble, double digit deficit, double digit inflation, debt level higher than the EU average.

    Believe it or not, however small they may be countries like Netherlands, Denmark, Scandinavian and others have qualitatively better equipment than Russia. Only the former Eastern Block countries have less. Not only are they outgunned, they are outmanned.

    If you take out France, UK, Germany and Italy the other nations still make up almost half of EU defence spending so not even China's hidden budget beats them. There is a leveling point for BRICs and China has already surpassed it, Russia is headed for a modernisation BRIC wall and Brasil has already overextended herself.

    France has its own foreign policy, just like we didn't follow US into an illegal invasion of Iraq. French wars are legal and justified by UN mandate.
     
  13. Param

    Param Senior Member Senior Member

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    :pound::pound:
     
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  14. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Still they are sitting ducks in front of Russian missile forces, and I am only talking about conventional ones.
     
  15. Damian

    Damian Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    You are kidding right?

    UK soon will be have same amount of 3rd generation MBT's like my country have (Poland 128 Leo2A4's, UK 125 Challenger 2's), Germany is also reducing potential to ~200-400 MBT's, France also will reduce numbers to around 300-400 tanks, many other countries are reducing their military forces to the point of absurd being naive that other countries in europe will definetly help them... christ currently USMC even after reductions is comparabale whole armed forces of such countries like Germany or France. Truth maybe painfull, but we as a NATO, especially old members, we need to face that truth, without US we are weak and fucked up against the old Bear from the east, they don't even need technological superiority to beat us if we will be without US support.

    And guess what, they actually in some aspects of military technology much more advanced and smarter than most countries, in Cold War Times the only countries in NATO that were on par with Soviet Union in military technology were US and in some aspects Germany.

    So please, we should think in more realistic ways than a wishfull thinking that EU is some sort of military superpower. :rolleyes:

    Maybe US invasion on Iraq was not legal, but at least they tried and were abale to control this mess untill Iraqis on their won were abale to take responsibility, and what is Libya? Not only EU countries without US logistic and combat support probably could not do anything, but hey, at some moment EU countries just run out of PGM's.

    And what we will be have now in Libyia? A mess, mess that nobody will be abale to handle, because US is not willing to send soldiers there, and EU is unabale or also politicians are aware that it is not worth.

    Not to mention other issues.
     
  16. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    We saw how accurate Russian missile forces were in Georgia landing in shopping stalls. Russia has no observation platforms that will get any intel so the missiles are worthless without targeting data.
     
  17. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    You are kidding right?

    They might be able to roll over Poland but once they hit the German border with Western Europe's counter attack they will be reeling all the way back to Moscow. Not only are there a couple thousand active late gen tanks in service, there are several thousand more either operational or surplus storage. All of them are upgraded beyond the level of any mainstream Russian T-72. Russia's tank situation is so dire, they just withdrew 100 T-90s for "careless operation." That knocks them down to 200 semi-modern tanks and a couple hundred upgraded T-72s. Even modernised French tank destroyers are more than a match for any unupgraded T-72 or T-80. With France fielding MILAN-ER with upgraded optics and Javelin ATGMs, even our anti-tank platoons would mop up the floor with their Soviet junk. Throw in all the Leos running around they don't have a prayer in hell.

    It ain't the Cold War and it isn't the Soviet Union. It is backwater Russia who hasn't been able to field anything new since 1991.

    If the EU was united under a Russian invasion, it would be a Super Power 5X as strong as Russia's rusted Soviet crap. Half their listed air force is unserviceable, pilots don't even get enough hours for safe operation. The only thing to worry about is their IADs and that is less a factor in a Russian invasion.

    US totally bungled Iraq and now have an anti-US, corrupt do nothing government. As soon as they leave they will collapse.

    Libyan people took back their country and picked their own government, one that is actually responsive to public opinion. Libya is in no way comparable to the mess that was and will be Iraq.

    Not to mention other issues.
     
  18. Damian

    Damian Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    No, I'am dead serious, something You never understand.

    This is what I'am talking about, a wishfull thinking.

    There are only tanks in numbers I provided, Germans sold off allmost everything they got in storage, UK don't have reserve tank fleet in storage, France also don't have nothing more beyond Leclerc tanks in numbers I provided, AMX-30 is a joke not a tank, just like Leopard 1, to fight against them Russians don't even need tanks, BMD-3's, BMD-4's and BMP-3's are more than enough.

    T-72B is from base designed to be equipped also with heavy dynamic protection, and only Germans have besides US, ammunition designed to defeat targets protected by dynamic protection.

    It only shows that due to distance You not know anything about Russia. :)

    Of course, 200+ T-90, 400+ T-90A, ~300-400 T-80U tanks + several hundreds T-80UE-1 (T-80BW and T-80UD hybrid) + several thousands of T-80BW and several thousands of T-72B are really small numbers, T-90A's and T-80U's numbers alone are same or more than France and Germany have, and these vehicles have enough protection to withstand 90% of european anti tank weapons.

    :lol: But there is one small problem, the tanks I provided numbers are all upgraded variants, in active service there are no not upgraded tanks.

    And this is the typical, european arrogance, ignorance and wishfull thinking, thank god, there is still US military might there, and Americans actually know more than You military about ex Soviet and now Russian and Ukrainian military tech, they are far from such arrogance, ignorance and wishfull thinking.

    ;) I think You live in some room without any conncetion to real world, nothing new? You should read more. :lol:

    Wishfull thinking.

    Even the 2nd half is more than enough.

    At least Iraq have some goverment, and it is highly unlikely that it collapse or US forces fully withdraw, not to mention that Iraqi Army and security forces are better and better with every month and can handle on their own.

    What we have in Libya besides chaos and high probability that control over country will be taken by religious fanatics... Bush at least had enough balls to at least try to rebuild Iraq, France will never send troops to Libya in case of fucked up situation, this is certain, because such operation demands not only involvement of light units, but also heavy units and strong logistics, something that only US in the whole NATO is capabale to do.

    We will see, but Your point of view is very naive I must say, but it's your right to belive in what You want to belive.
     
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  19. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    You guys are talking about Russia versus the whole EU with conventional forces only? We wouldn't stand a chance if they could unite their forces. The problem for the EU is their discordant nature where you would have certain battlegroups come to fight and not an entire unified army. The main three we would have to worry about are Germany, France and the UK. The French have full interoperability with both and can mass an effective fighting force. Russia only has 76 combat brigades and a draft isn't going to bring that up to 100. Young men avoid conscription like the plague here. When one compares the sorry state Russian ground forces are in as was demonstrated in Georgia, the effects would be mismatched brigades lacking in running equipment. Logistics to keep that running more than a few hundred km outside the border is not likely. Secure comms and battle management systems only exist in the lab. Upgraded armour and IFVs only in the hundreds, not thousands like the EU.

    Too much talk here about tank numbers, it is not a deciding factor and Russia is soarly in the negative here in technology. Little known fact but we could probably kit out 500 sets of ERA, the rest of the tanks would be vulnerable to even the 105mm guns of the lighter European APFSDS KE rounds. In Georgia the N. Caucus MD was left scrambling to find whatever ERA kits they could find and many didn't even have charges in them. For those same ERA kits you might find 500 tanks that can shoot a missile from the barrel, very few of them in the bridage are actually fitted for that task. For all the trouble the Euro armies might have in finding ammunition, it would be several times worse as Russian stocks have hardly seen any new orders from the fall of CCCP. Most of this stuff in inventory will not be fired for safety concerns. As much as we love artillery we ran out in an operation as small as Chechnya. I was in charge of a VDV anti-tank platoon and we were waiting for new Kornets to replace Konkurs. That was 10 years ago and that unit still doesn't have Kornets and the kids there now are scared to fire what they've got.

    That doesn't even cover the fact that the Europeans can fight in the dark and we can't. They have night vision while we launch flares to see the battlefield. The EU has over a dozen recon sats that float over Russia while we have none over them. They have hundreds of UAVs while we have practically none. They have battle management systems while we have none. They have secure digital comms while we have little to none. Given their total SA advantage, there is no chance of us winning even if we could outnumber them, which we can't.

    That is just the ground situation, don't get me started on VVS which isn't in a much better state. Air superiority goes all to Europe so we can watch our troops get slaughtered by bombers we never see. If we can get this reform moving forward this entire situation might even up, but this is the third time and it is failing like the first two. That is why nukes are given the priority because our defenses are not adequate.
     
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  20. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    A united EU vs Russia is an unfair scenario. The Russians may have done a little better immediately after the fall of the CCCP, but now it simply won't do. The best things coming out of Russia isn't even reaching the Russian armed forces, they are all for the export market. There have been near zero investments in new technologies by the army. Heck had they been in the middle of procuring some 200 odd MKI equivalent aircraft or a 1000 T-90As, then yeah, there would have been a possibility of merely comparing with a country like Germany or France. But the way it is currently going they need a huge amount of investment to even match up to the standards of a modern EU army. Times change, sh!t happens. Perhaps the Russian oil industry will help Russia out of the slump. The strategic forces seem to be doing well though. New missiles and sub in the offing.

    No one in the EU is in the state of attacking Russia anyway, so nothing to talk about. A combined EU is not a superpower, but EU does not need to be a superpower to take on Russia.
     

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