USA Thinktank: We don't need the Indians as much as they think we do

thakur_ritesh

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On the question, why do the NRIs and PIOs tend to lean more towards the Democrats and not so much towards the Republicans, I would like to believe the answer somewhere lies in the exposure to socialism that one gets in India or possibly the over exposure and so one invariably develops a thought process which is more in lines with an ideology which has a slight left leaning than to one which is right leaning and then also the fact the left leaning ideology will come across more acceptable to any migrant because the liberals, as they get called, will be more open to them and adjust to their concerns than would someone who is right leaning and is referred to as a conservative.

Here is a discussion which Bharat Karnad had with a few folks from the Heritage foundation. Their disappointment is quite visible

Link- Minimal on White

PS: DO watch the video, it's pretty good.



Heritage foundation is conservative and related to the Republican party




If we don't get in, then we'll make sure that these clubs (which were created to restrain India) are useless. Successful test of Agni V for example has made MTCR useless
LB, Thanks for sharing the video.

This discussion does more justice to the challenges faced and opportunities present in the Indo-US relations. Discussion is certainly more in sync with the realities as they are.

What caught my attention the most, other than of course the whole India-US-China thing which was the focus of the discussion, was the point highlighted by Lisa on Iran where she did accept that India had no other means to access Afghanistan but to use the sea/land route provided by Iran and certainly not through Pakistan.

If we break this point down, we will understand why India had committed on procuring less amount of oil from Iran but not completely stop and the US in turn will not be vocal about it. If we look at it, the Obama administration has largely been quiet on the issue with an odd reference and that reference too gets clubbed with China, Turkey, Japan and RoK and India doesn't get singled out. The noise that has been made has come from the conservative Israeli sections in the US, so over all it does seem we have developed a decent understanding on Iran with the US.
 

Bhadra

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Here is a discussion which Bharat Karnad had with a few folks from the Heritage foundation. Their disappointment is quite visible

Link- Minimal on White

PS: DO watch the video, it's pretty good.





Heritage foundation is conservative and related to the Republican party




If we don't get in, then we'll make sure that these clubs (which were created to restrain India) are useless. Successful test of Agni V for example has made MTCR useless


Well, thanks for that video.

so we must spend our energy to direct Hafiz Sayid and his Laskar towards Xinjaing.....
 

Bhadra

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What Karnad says is quite well known views of his,namely :

# India must stop the free ride for its security and stand on her own.
# Protect her strategic autonomy.
# Play the Tibet card more actively.
# Arm and help Vietnam and other countries hostile to China.
# Spend more for building up capacities and capability.
# Least of all, spend resources to direct Laskar into Xinjiang.
 

Singh

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@thakur sahab - imo a large number of Indians in the states are Republicans. And even Bobby Jindal and Nikki Randhawa are Republicans if I am not incorrect.
 

Ray

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Ok, let me press you further. Who in your opinion has hitherto served Indian interests better?
Sarah Palin!

She would not know where she is located or where India is!

All you have to tell her that China is bleeding the US white and she can see China from her window!

Watch her go!

The hockey mom!

And lipstick on a pig!

Dumb Presidents are India's best bet.

Heard of Bush? ;) :rofl:
 
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Rahul Singh

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What Karnad says is quite well known views of his,namely :

# India must stop the free ride for its security and stand on her own.
# Protect her strategic autonomy.
# Play the Tibet card more actively.
# Arm and help Vietnam and other countries hostile to China.
# Spend more for building up capacities and capability.
# Least of all, spend resources to direct Laskar into Xinjiang.
I disagree with bold part. Playing in XINJIANG is like hodling duel edged sword, no matter what you do at the end of the day you are sure to bleed. It is thousand times better to concentrate on Tibet and let Islamists of Pakistan play in Xinjiang.
 

pankaj nema

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USA wants and loves LAP DOGS like Israel UK and Japan

We are " A growing tiger"

Initially a tiger baby is cute but soon you become wary of its growing size and strength :lol:
 

pankaj nema

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USA hates MANY countries but still it does business with them
Saudi Arabia China Russia Turkey Mexico and Pakistan are ALL Pain in the Ass for the USA

Some a bigger pain than the other

But still AMericans have learnt to Grin and bear it because they are pragmatic business minded
people

Only National interests are permanent

Friends change with time
 

pankaj nema

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USA has problems with Both; growing Radical Islam and the Chinese strength

It NEEDS India because India is a source of Stability And PRO American public Opinion
in this ARC from the Middle east to Asia Pacific

These think tanks are stupid
 

aerokan

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@thakur sahab - imo a large number of Indians in the states are Republicans. And even Bobby Jindal and Nikki Randhawa are Republicans if I am not incorrect.
U mean the one that goes by the name Nikki Haley?
 

Yusuf

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Referring LBs link,

Bharat Karnad represents a conservative and hawkish. He is right in parts and also wrong in some. All the panelists were right to some extent and this is where a collective pool of ideas help in forming policies and strategies.

1) He is right in saying US is rushing things and expecting too much too soon.
2) He is right when he says India has to stand on its own to fight China.
3) He is only partly right when he says Vietnam is our best bet to counter China. Him saying that we should arm Vietnam overtly is well :facepalm: moment. Vietnam has its importance but not to the level he says it is.

important point here is that he said Indian nuclear scientists are working in Vietnam. He may have let out a secret of what may be an "unofficial policy" of India vis a vis Vietnam and arming them with nukes.

His observation on Israel is right as well, but as the US panelist put it, it may be too narrow an outlook. India needs a whole different relationship with the US not limited to weapons development and sales. India has emerged as a major roadblock to Chinas rise. India needs the US in the short term 10-15 years to be a sort of back up. US needs India so that China is contained and it's rise is not drastic that it overtakes the US.
 

ice berg

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Do explain how India has emerged as a major roadblock to Chinas rise. When the chinese economy is still growing faster than India and the volumes of trade are still increasing between those two countries. Not to mention the ever growing trade deficit between those two countries.
Still, I will take your words for it.

P.S I laughed at the part about India helping Vietnam building nukes. :lol:
That someone actually believes that, tells me about their credibility.
 

Ray

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Karnad is a hawk.

He is right on many issues, but then he tends to lose sight of the reality of realpolitik!

Good man, the lalten!
 

Ray

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Do explain how India has emerged as a major roadblock to Chinas rise. When the chinese economy is still growing faster than India and the volumes of trade are still increasing between those two countries. Not to mention the ever growing trade deficit between those two countries.
Still, I will take your words for it.

P.S I laughed at the part about India helping Vietnam building nukes. :lol:
That someone actually believes that, tells me about their credibility.
India is no roadblock for anyone.

Let all thrive is what we say. Enjoy. Life is short!

Trade can grow, but that does not mean bonhomie.
 

Yusuf

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Do explain how India has emerged as a major roadblock to Chinas rise. When the chinese economy is still growing faster than India and the volumes of trade are still increasing between those two countries. Not to mention the ever growing trade deficit between those two countries.
Still, I will take your words for it.

P.S I laughed at the part about India helping Vietnam building nukes. :lol:
That someone actually believes that, tells me about their credibility.
You'd better ask you CPC that. Strings of Pearls rings a bell. If they are not too concerned they'd ignore India.

Why did GT go crazy in that report? China is not going to have a smooth ride and it knows it.
 

ice berg

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I dont care much about media hypes. I have heard about the new missile been called China killer. I have learned to ignore such boastings.
And a smooth ride? muhahhaha. China has not had a smooth ride since the 18th centry. I am sure the strings of samosa isnt gonna change the balance no matter what your media tells you. hahaha smooth ride. a good one.

it is all about the economy, silly.
some island chains isnt gonna change that.
 

ejazr

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I've seen this attitude among quite a few Indian-Americans, that the Republican party is more pro-India than the Democrats.
If you actually read the post, you would know that this report was written by the conservative Heritage Foundation.

Lest we forget, it was the Democratic president FDR who pushed Churchill to liberate the colonies during World War II.
It was the Democratic president JFK who thought that the USA would have to defend India in case another war with China broke out.
It was the Democratic president LBJ who passed the 1965 Immigration Reform Act, which allowed immigrants from non-Western countries to come to the US. He also passed the Civil Rights Act which made it illegal to discriminate against minorities.
It was the Democratic president Bill Clinton who allowed US companies to start outsourcing to India.

In contrast, Republican presidents have been thoroughly pro-Pakistan and pro-China.
It was the Republican president Richard Nixon who threatened to intervene in Pakistan's favor during the 1971 war. He also encouraged China to open its economy to Western investment, resulting in its rapid rise as a global power.
Agree with this sentiment.

The think tank that arranged this talk was at the American Enterprise Institute which is a republican leaning think tank. Two of the people on that panel were Bush administration officials and these same people are now pessimistic on the relationship. So this is basically what a very "Republicanish" think tank is discussing now.

Again, going through the presentation is interesting because except for Perkovich who was neutral on India before and now negative, all the other people were supporters of a special US-India relationship which they have changed their opinion on.
Full video of the event is here
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...indians-much-they-think-we-do.html#post476234

At regional level, again we can question which administration was helpful or not. While Bush gave leeway to Musharraf and instead of focusing on Afghanistan launched and unnecessary and futile war in Iraq, Obama from day one has brought the focus back on Pakistan. Infact, the drone wars and the surge in Afghanistan had it been done much earlier would have left Afghanistan in a much better state and Pakistan much more constrained. At least now, Obama is cutting down on CSF funds which Bush use to provide Musharraf blindly and without accountability. Musharraf himself admitted that these same $2Billion a year military assistance under the Bush administration was used to build up its capacity against India.

In any case, there is usually some continuity between both administrations in foreign policy. Leaving the Republican vs Democrat debate, though, it is important to discuss some "problems" the panelists highlight in what they call the failure of India-US relations not picking up

Broadly, the major points that I got were:
(1) On the Indo-US civil nuke deal, the blame is put on India on the liability legislation. The main point for those who followed this was that suppliers should not be liable according to US, while GoI had to compromise with the opposition to bring about supplier liability on top of operator liability. This effectively cuts out US companies from the action because no US company is willing to take up that liability.
(2) India not signing military pacts for transfer of advanced technology and weaponry like CISMOA, LSA e.t.c. One of the reasons why full tech transfer would not be possible if India doesn't sign these agreements. MMRCA also comes into this category perhaps all though it had its own drawbacks
(3) Collaboration with India in the UN and other international bodies like WTO and climate change treaties. India takes an opposite stand in most of these organizations like on agriculture in WTO and emissions treaty. Not to mention that India and Cuba almost had the same level of for/against US votes in the UNSC when both were members in 2010. Vote on Libya for example came up around this.
(4) Business in Multi brand retail and opening of finance and other sectors of the economy to US businesses.


Now what should India be doing here?

IMHO, the India-US partnership is very important and we have to understand that we will have to be no.2 or a junior partner to the US no matter how much it hurts our ego. At least for the short to medium term.

It is only natural for the US to ask that if it helps India and gives them xyz, then what will they get in return? Will India support them in their "projects" in other areas? So GoI should try to achieve a balance on these questions

Just going through the list above, I would suggest
(1) Review the civil nuclear liability and make it compliant under the IAEA regime which caps supplier nuclear liability to some extent. A compromise of sorts with the opposition will be required but necessary to give business to US companies. Ofcourse, this could be put in the too hard basket given the history of the Bhopal gas disaster
(2) All other countries that the US collaborates with have signed these agreements so why dont' we? Atleast the CISMOA should not be big problem IMO. The biggest deal in the Obama era - the Hercules transporters came with less precise avionics because we didn't agree to sign this agreement. Same thing with the P8s. I never understood why the hesitancy in signing the CISMOA when so many other countries already do so. The irony that countries like UAE and Kuwait get better avionics than India because of this.
(3) Similarly, India should make an attempt to align more with the US when we don't have any major interests clashing. The Libya case if an example where India should have voted WITH the US. On other items like emissions treaty or WTO rules on agriculture, India has legitimate interest and will need to defend them. But in other places, India should make an effort to co-ordinate positions with the US.
(4) FDI in multi-brand retail is a no brainer. Its the domestic politics that are messing this up and hopefully, we can go ahead with this sooner rather than later. But overall, I don't see economic relations as a major block as these have been improving and is probably the only positive thing in recent times.
 
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ejazr

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I might add that AEI and Heritage foundation is in addition to another conservative / Republican leaning think tanks who are advocating a downgrading of India-Us ties.

Stratfor which is headed by Geroge Friedman is another think tank that had initially put this idea out back in 2010
His book, the next decade basically articulated the same theme then
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...ict-last-100-years-says-cohen.html#post270345
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...-wants-contain-india-south-asia-stratfor.html
 

mayfair

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^^

In other words, they will say one thing, and then do just what you least expected.

The fact that they have been doing this ever since Billy's time and that Indians still continue to fund this party does not quite explain how Indians are supposedly 'smarter' than average. They are not.
I think it is a flawed premise to assume that the interests of the Indian-Americans are the same as that of India and Indians. If they do vote for Democrats, they must be doing so with their interest in mindnot Indias.
 
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This article may mean USA has strengthened their position in the Pacific around
the South China seas so they many not need to have a Western front open again
China? This is just one view but I still think a Western front thru Tibet will happen
and USA has expressed an interest in the western front by a recent clue of
much improved relations with Burma that came as a result of- yes India.
 

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