US-Iran pact could give India big gains

[happy]

It finally seems like Indian Diplomacy is working between Iran and US !!

NEW DELHI: While they aren't yet doing a high five in South Block but it's difficult to miss the optimism here at the possibility of Iran's new president Hassan Rouhani actually shaking hands with Barack Obama this week.

India has been friend of Iran's, US pressures notwithstanding. While little was officially shared about Manmohan Singh's meetings with Ayatollah Khamenei in August 2012 in Tehran on the sidelines of the NAM summit, it is believed he impressed upon the Iranian leader about the importance of resolving the standoff over Iran's nuclear programme.

New Delhi is inclined to believe that Khamenei is actually more pragmatic than is believed by the west. If Rouhani meets Obama, which may open the door to much more, it would only reflect the decision of Khamenei.

India has persisted with its ties with Tehran in the teeth of western and Israeli criticism. Even the India-US nuclear deal asks India to work with US against Iran's nuclear programme. While India has stated it would not countenance another nuclear weapons state in its neighbourhood, India did not cut off ties with Teheran.

Therefore, a potential rapprochement between Iran and US would be welcomed in Delhi.

India and Iran would have a better platform to work together in Afghanistan after the US leaves in 2014. That, in fact, would be one of the big impetus of an American deal with Iran. Iran is opposed to the Taliban, even if it has flirted with the extremist group against the US in recent years. An Iran-US understanding would make it easier for countries like India and Iran to counter the Taliban and Pakistan's influence over the Talibs.

That apart, the Chahbahar port, in southeastern Iran bordering the Indian Ocean and Oman Sea, could open up many more possibilities, not just for India but for many other countries as well, enhancing Iran's geo-strategic position.

Iran is also in a position to influence two big conflicts in the region - Syria and Iraq. The balance of power in the Gulf and Middle East is predicated on some kind of a sectarian power balance between the Sunni and Shia countries. A mainstreamed Iran could temper the strife by bringing a greater sense of parity.

For US ally in the region, Israel, to feel secure, the Americans would have to reach with Iran some kind of nuclear deal that allows for peaceful use of nuclear power without the weapons. This will be the most difficult part as Iran is determined not to give up its weapons option.

And that brings the reality check - a US-Iran rapprochement is a way away. But a US-Iran conversation is not.

Source @US-Iran pact could give India big gains - The Times of India

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Rouhani refused to meet with Obama, if I am not badly snakebitten.

 

[happy]

Rouhani refused to meet with Obama, if I am not badly snakebitten.

I think he is playing hardball. Apparently, they have realized that Obama is not so strong.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

I think he is playing hardball. Apparently, they have realized that Obama is not so strong.

Obama’s handshake a ‘kiss of death’ | New York Post

 

[happy]

@Iran Applies Brakes to U.S. Mideast Plans - WSJ.com

 

[jmj_overlord]

so this means india can start the pipeline project with iran if the sanctions against them are relaxed ?

 

[Tshering22]

We seriously need to diversify out oil sources away from just Arabs and Iranians.

For that, we will need to focus more on countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, Brunei and even new entrants like Vietnam (oil blocks have a lot of it there). Though distance is a lot, I think even Venezuela can play a small but significant role of a supplier.

This over-reliance of our imports of oil from Arabian states and Persian region is causing too much internal political problems.

 

[Tshering22]

so this means india can start the pipeline project with iran if the sanctions against them are relaxed ?

We cannot have pipeline even then because of Pakistan.

There was a choice of pipeline via Afghanistan through safer cities like Persian influenced Herat, IF we had POK taken back with force in 1971.

But sadly, we didn't.

The point is, Pakistan refuses to take responsibility for pipeline at all and has no money to finance this venture. Also, Iran is not comfortable agreeing to the condition that we will pay ONLY for the gas that we receive at our end, because it becomes Iran's responsibility to monitor the pipeline security through pressuring Pakistan.

We're better off getting pipelines from under-ocean route rather than through Pakistan, although it will be a pain in the ass for the Navy to keep a vigil in case terrorists manage to get depth charges against these pipelines.

 

[jmj_overlord]

so the pipeline project is just a distant dream.....is there a deal between iran and pakistan as of now regarding the pipeline project ?

 

[datguy79]

so the pipeline project is just a distant dream.....is there a deal between iran and pakistan as of now regarding the pipeline project ?

It had to be halted because Pakistan has the financial stability of a Greek bank right now (aka no cash) to finance it.

 

[jamesvaikom]

We seriously need to diversify out oil sources away from just Arabs and Iranians.

For that, we will need to focus more on countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, Brunei and even new entrants like Vietnam (oil blocks have a lot of it there). Though distance is a lot, I think even Venezuela can play a small but significant role of a supplier.

This over-reliance of our imports of oil from Arabian states and Persian region is causing too much internal political problems.

We already have some investments in those countries. Instead of buying more stakes we should try to develop those fields as early as possible. Govt. should auction shale oil and gas hydrate fields as soon as possible. Over investments in overseas oil fields are not good because in future we may invent cheaper fuels.

 

[drkrn]

so this means india can start the pipeline project with iran if the sanctions against them are relaxed ?

any thing that passes through pakistan is not economically viable for us

 

[drkrn]

We seriously need to diversify out oil sources away from just Arabs and Iranians.

For that, we will need to focus more on countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, Brunei and even new entrants like Vietnam (oil blocks have a lot of it there). Though distance is a lot, I think even Venezuela can play a small but significant role of a supplier.

This over-reliance of our imports of oil from Arabian states and Persian region is causing too much internal political problems.

venezuela is half way across the globe.not a good option

 

[drkrn]

We're better off getting pipelines from under-ocean route rather than through Pakistan, although it will be a pain in the ass for the Navy to keep a vigil in case terrorists manage to get depth charges against these pipelines.

can depth charges go that deep?
i dont think so.

the project is a tech challenge which cant be completed by india

 

[drkrn]

It had to be halted because Pakistan has the financial stability of a Greek bank right now (aka no cash) to finance it.

where is pakistan's close friend now??

now pakistan has inflation high as a mountain ,deficits deep as an ocean

 

[W.G.Ewald]

so this means india can start the pipeline project with iran if the sanctions against them are relaxed ?

The sanctions are those of the UN, I believe. Posturing by Rouhani and Obama are irrelevant to those sanctions.

 

[nirranj]

We seriously need to diversify out oil sources away from just Arabs and Iranians.

For that, we will need to focus more on countries like Nigeria, Indonesia, Brunei and even new entrants like Vietnam (oil blocks have a lot of it there). Though distance is a lot, I think even Venezuela can play a small but significant role of a supplier.

This over-reliance of our imports of oil from Arabian states and Persian region is causing too much internal political problems.

Not just about oil bro.

We should facilitate a much broader talk, that includes using the chabahar-Zaranj route for shipping the American (civilian, in the least) goods to Afganistan and transporting our equipment to central asia. Making Chabahar as the American endorsed transport Hub will be the Key for us in four different areas,
1) bye-passing Pakistans influence on America's decision making in this region.
2) getting a lifeline in the race with China for the Central asian resources,
3) Surrounding Pakistan and effectively weakening pakistans war fighting ability and
4) to give a boost to our economy.

We need to work hard and smart on this to make sure this happens as it will be the greatest diplomatic victory in history.

This is a golden opportunity for us and we are the only Nation now that has diplomatic leverage with the Americans, Iranians and the Israelis.

 

[nirranj]

The sanctions are those of the UN, I believe. Posturing by Rouhani and Obama are irrelevant to those sanctions.

I believe Posturing by Obama is more important than what the UN does.

 

[nirranj]

Not just about oil bro.

We should facilitate a much broader talk, that includes using the chabahar-Zaranj route for shipping the American (civilian, in the least) goods to Afganistan and transporting our equipment to central asia. Making Chabahar as the American endorsed transport Hub will be the Key for us in four different areas,
1) bye-passing Pakistans influence on America's decision making in this region.
2) getting a lifeline in the race with China for the Central asian resources,
3) Surrounding Pakistan and effectively weakening pakistans war fighting ability and
4) to give a boost to our economy.

We need to work hard and smart on this to make sure this happens as it will be the greatest diplomatic victory in history.

This is a golden opportunity for us and we are the only Nation now that has diplomatic leverage with the Americans, Iranians and the Israelis.

This is a much better option for the US to ship its goods to Afghanistan rather than the terrorist infested eastern route...

 

[The Messiah]

Futile attempt..we should care what both of them do regarding themselves. We should concentrate on our relationships with both rather than trying to become a middle man which would be worst decision ever.