US intel estimate of nuclear modernization in India

[Yusuf]

The title has been edited for Indian context while the report is for all nuclear weapons state.

Interesting point about India is that the US estimates that Agni 3 and 4 are only technology demonstrators for Agni 5 and not full fledged weapons system. It also states that Agni 5 is going to carry multiple warheads.

The repeat also states that India is developing a new warhead possibly for K15 SLBM.

http://blogs.fas.org/security/2013/05/afgsc-brief2013/

 

[SamwiseTheBrave]

The title has been edited for Indian context while the report is for all nuclear weapons state.

Interesting point about India is that the US estimates that Agni 3 and 4 are only technology demonstrators for Agni 5 and not full fledged weapons system. It also states that Agni 5 is going to carry multiple warheads.

The repeat also states that India is developing a new warhead possibly for K15 SLBM.

Air Force Briefing Shows Nuclear Modernizations But Ignores US and UK Programs - FAS Strategic Security Blog

just TD`s for A5? really ? i`m skeptical of that statement , and quote the blog entry below :

These inconsistencies cast doubt on the quality of the AFGSC briefing and whether it represents the conclusion of a coordinated Intelligence Community assessment, or simply is an effort to raise money in Congress for modernizing U.S. bombers and ICBMs.

another interesting find was this statement by the blog author

The modernizations are partially being sustained by non-nuclear weapon states – often the very same who otherwise say they want nuclear disarmament – that insist on being protected by nuclear weapons.

 

[Payeng]

The title has been edited for Indian context while the report is for all nuclear weapons state.

Interesting point about India is that the US estimates that Agni 3 and 4 are only technology demonstrators for Agni 5 and not full fledged weapons system. It also states that Agni 5 is going to carry multiple warheads.

The repeat also states that India is developing a new warhead possibly for K15 SLBM.

Air Force Briefing Shows Nuclear Modernizations But Ignores US and UK Programs - FAS Strategic Security Blog

For some reason I too believe A-III and A-IV are tech development program. I was expecting some new estimation on nuclear warhead.

 

[Yusuf]

For some reason I too believe A-III and A-IV are tech development program. I was expecting some new estimation on nuclear warhead.

Warhead estimation remains at 80-100 for India. 240 for China which I dispute and currently in conversation with Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in twitter and tagging Hans Kristensen on it as well and hoping for a reply

 

[sayareakd]

Hans Kristensen has no idea what he is saying about A3 and A4, plus they forget about Prithvi, A1 and A2 missile, dont they want SFC test pics and videos ??

This shows their level of professionalism.................

 

[sayareakd]

Warhead estimation remains at 80-100 for India. 240 for China which I dispute and currently in conversation with Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in twitter and tagging Hans Kristensen on it as well and hoping for a reply

tell him about my post No.5, and do ask him, i think look on his face would be priceless.

 

[Payeng]

Hans Kristensen has no idea what he is saying about A3 and A4, plus they forget about Prithvi, A1 and A2 missile, dont they want SFC test pics and videos ??

This shows their level of professionalism.................

saya it is about development and modernisation, not the arsenal.

 

[sayareakd]

saya it is about development and modernisation, not the arsenal.

@Pay he says

Neither the Agni III nor Agni IV are listed in the briefing, which might indicate, if correct, that the two systems, both of which were test launched in 2012, are in fact technology development programs intended to develop the technology to field the Agni V.

A3 is at production and it was test fire by SFC.

here is the wiki link taken from hindu.

On 21 September 2012, as part of regular user-training the Strategic Forces Command test fired an Agni III missile from a rail mobile launcher. The missile was randomly chosen from a production lot. All mission objectives were achieved and the missile hit the pre-designated target with a two-digit accuracy

Agni-III - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Agni-III test-fired successfully | The Hindu

looks like US have no idea about their report.

 

[Payeng]

@sayareakd I cannot challenge the credibility of local media but I have my own reasons for my believe, A-III with 0.5 meter shorter then A-V and single warhead look alike warhead design do not seems logical to me, a single warhead for a missile of that class, I even believe A-V is not made for a single warhead delivery and it will be developed for MIRV capabilities. Regarding A-VI it seems like it was tested to prove some technologies like composite casing and new stage separation technology, question arise why would DRDO develop a missile with reduced warhead payload capability for a humble increase in range?
Why would we need missile for ever 1000 plus kms?
Can we maintain strategic missiles of such numbers of varieties or is it economically feasible?
more over for Agni - V I believe it to have MIRV capabilities in the near future and canisterised launch capable if technology proven,
I suppose a SLBM variant based on Agni- V may be under consideration too.


N.B: Those are my believe and estimation, not concrete statement.

 

[Yusuf]

A5 is with MIRV. A 4 is required for IRBM range.

 

[sayareakd]

@sayareakd I cannot challenge the credibility of local media but I have my own reasons for my believe, A-III with 0.5 meter shorter then A-V and single warhead look alike warhead design do not seems logical to me, a single warhead for a missile of that class, I even believe A-V is not made for a single warhead delivery and it will be developed for MIRV capabilities. Regarding A-VI it seems like it was tested to prove some technologies like composite casing and new stage separation technology, question arise why would DRDO develop a missile with reduced warhead payload capability for a humble increase in range?
Why would we need missile for ever 1000 plus kms?
Can we maintain strategic missiles of such numbers of varieties or is it economically feasible?
more over for Agni - V I believe it to have MIRV capabilities in the near future and canisterised launch capable if technology proven,
I suppose a SLBM variant based on Agni- V may be under consideration too.


N.B: Those are my believe and estimation, not concrete statement.

well sometimes i also feel about warhead of A3, but then if you see closely RV itself is stage in A3 plus with small plus motor it can stare the RV and do anti BMD trajectory, that is most important point. If you are worried about its motor, i suggest you watch A3 video and A5 video and check the time of sepration of each motor and compare, you will get your answer.

 

[Patriot]

Hans Kristensen has no idea what he is saying about A3 and A4, plus they forget about Prithvi, A1 and A2 missile, dont they want SFC test pics and videos ??

This shows their level of professionalism.................

V.K. Saraswat has stated many times that A-3 & A-4 has been inducted & under production. In addition some of the test has been done by SFC from the random sample taken from the production line to check the quality & effectiveness.

This is US tendency to undrestimate Indian technological prowses in missile devlopement and also they are not able to digest it. On the otherhand they are frustrated because they are not able to contain Pakis, NK & Chinis missile proliferation & developement.

 

[sayareakd]

V.K. Saraswat has stated many times that A-3 & A-4 has been inducted & under production. In addition some of the test has been done by SFC from the random sample taken from the production line to check the quality & effectiveness.

A3 is inducted and under production and A4 is under development.

 

[no smoking]

There is one thing I would like to know: have india went through the test of missile lauching with real nuclear warhead?

 

[Yusuf]

There is one thing I would like to know: have india went through the test of missile lauching with real nuclear warhead?

Obviously not coz of moratorium on testing. Trigger mechanism tested which is key

 

[sesha_maruthi27]

There is one thing I would like to know: have india went through the test of missile lauching with real nuclear warhead?

Don't worry about our missiles and will test it when required and i think it will be during a real war....

 

[no smoking]

Don't worry about our missiles and will test it when required and i think it will be during a real war....

I don't worry about your missile which is already tested. Instead I worry about your warhead: you have to test if your warhead can work properly after long time flying. Or you are preparing a nuclear war with unproven technology?

 

[ersakthivel]

I don't worry about your missile which is already tested. Instead I worry about your warhead: you have to test if your warhead can work properly after long time flying. Or you are preparing a nuclear war with unproven technology?

What makes you think it will never be testes again?

if you stage another DBO drama, India can easily cite the tension at border reason and test again,

No western country will do anything to harm india's strategic interest because we are not peddling any strange exotic ruling system and not bolstering failed states like pakistan or north korea with nuclear missile tech,

Infact you have not realized that india is a defacto Nuclear power already included in NSG (despite your best efforts to spoil it in Geneva) and has Us and Japan as strategic partner,

When North korea test a nuke without a murmur from , why can't the world's third largest economy do it,

In fact the present UPA mess at the delhi wastea golden oppurtunity to test a nuke during the recent DBO intrusion because it is senile to the core,they could not even realize the huge boost in popularity it will give to their Yuvraj's chances in next election.

But you cannot expect a future indian govt to be as spineless as this one and let go of such golden chance.

 

[no smoking]

What makes you think it will never be testes again?

if you stage another DBO drama, India can easily cite the tension at border reason and test again,

I asked "Has india done it" not "Will india do it"! Please read my question carefully.

No western country will do anything to harm india's strategic interest because we are not peddling any strange exotic ruling system and not bolstering failed states like pakistan or north korea with nuclear missile tech,

Infact you have not realized that india is a defacto Nuclear power already included in NSG (despite your best efforts to spoil it in Geneva) and has Us and Japan as strategic partner,

When North korea test a nuke without a murmur from , why can't the world's third largest economy do it,

In fact the present UPA mess at the delhi wastea golden oppurtunity to test a nuke during the recent DBO intrusion because it is senile to the core,they could not even realize the huge boost in popularity it will give to their Yuvraj's chances in next election.

But you cannot expect a future indian govt to be as spineless as this one and let go of such golden chance.

Please, just anwer the question! Did india do such test? If not, how could you be confident your nuclear weapon will work? Or when india gov will do it?

 

[ersakthivel]

According to the government SAKTHI series of nuclear test have validated the warhead designs.

I asked "Has india done it" not "Will india do it"! Please read my question carefully.



Please, just anwer the question! Did india do such test? If not, how could you be confident your nuclear weapon will work? Or when india gov will do it?