US, China, and Taiwan

[Martian]

Taipei Times is reporting that the United States has included military exchanges with Taiwan in the latest defense spending bill.

I predict China will probably veto every US resolution at the United Nations Security Council for the next four years. You heard it here first!

US includes Taiwan in military bill | Taipei Times

 

[Martian]

Geopolitical Principle: Newton's Third Law of Motion

Newton's Third Law of Motion states: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Let's review this principle in action.

The US imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. China imposed tariffs on American chicken. China bought Europe's Pirelli, which is the world's fifth-largest tire manufacturer. Now China can sell expensive Pirelli tires to Americans for a bigger profit.

Next, the US imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panel manufacturers. China retaliated by imposing tariffs on American polysilicon, which is used in the manufacture of Chinese solar panels. Today, China manufactures most of its own polysilicon. The profit margin is higher, because China doesn't have to pay for expensive American polysilicon anymore.

Let's move on to geopolitics.

The Obama administration announced its Pivot to Asia policy in 2011. It was apparent to everyone that it was an attempted containment of China. Newton's Third Law of Motion sprung into action and China started building reclaimed islands and military bases throughout the South China Sea.

As you can see, China is a master of Newton's Third Law of Motion. Every time the US tries to change the status quo, China has a counter-move to increase its position on the geopolitical chessboard.

Now, we are in the strange situation where president-elect Trump complains about China's fortified South China Sea military bases. This is the strange cycle where an American Pivot to Asia policy triggered a Chinese response that is now a bone of contention between the two countries.

I suggest the United States government stop trying to change the status quo in Asia. It only increases China's power and influence. I have previously suggested that the only solution is negotiation. Unilateral actions like the Pivot to Asia policy don't work. It only creates a Chinese response via Newton's Third Law of Motion.

Though it would be a new strategy, the United States will have to negotiate with China sooner or later. The longer that the US waits, the less leverage it will have. Chinese economic and military power are growing stronger by the month (such as the increased monthly production of Chinese DF-41 10-MIRV ICBMs).

Sitting down with China and reaching a compromise is the only way forward. I said this back in 2011 and I'm saying it again. It is the most intelligent course of action given the strength of the Chinese economy and military technology.

 

[airtel]

I predict China will probably veto every US resolution at the United Nations Security Council for the next four years. You heard it here first!

:crystalball::crystalball::crystalball::crystalball:

cold war between USA & China ??

 

[airtel]

Sun Dec 11, 2016 | 1:40 PM EST
Trump says U.S. not necessarily bound by 'one China' policy

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks at a ''Thank You USA'' tour rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, U.S. December 9, 2016.
Reuters/Mike Segar


By Caren Bohan | WASHINGTON


U.S. President-elect Donald Trump questioned whether the United States had to be bound by its long-standing position that Taiwan is part of "one China" and brushed aside Beijing's concerns about his decision to accept a phone call from Taiwan's president.

"I fully understand the 'one China' policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade," Trump said in an interview with Fox News Sunday.

Trump's decision to accept a congratulatory telephone call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen on Dec. 2 prompted a diplomatic protest from Beijing, which considers Taiwan a renegade province.

Trump’s questioning of long-standing U.S. policy risks antagonizing Beijing further and analysts have said it could provoke military confrontation with China if pressed too far.

Beijing had no immediate comment on Trump's remarks.

The call with Trump was the first such contact with Taiwan by a U.S. president-elect or president since President Jimmy Carter switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, acknowledging Taiwan as part of "one China."

Taiwan is one of China's most sensitive policy issues, and China generally lambastes any form of official contact by foreign governments with Taiwan's leaders.

After Trump's phone conversation, the Obama administration said senior White House aides had spoken with Chinese officials to insist that Washington’s “one China” policy remained intact. The administration also warned that progress made in the U.S. relationship with China could be undermined by a “flaring up” of the Taiwan issue.

Following Trump's latest comments, a White House aide said the Obama administration had no reaction beyond its previously stated policy positions.

In the Fox interview, Trump criticized China over its currency policies, its activities in the South China Sea and its stance toward North Korea and said it was not up to Beijing to decide whether he should take a call from Taiwan's leader.

"I don't want China dictating to me and this was a call put in to me," Trump said. "It was a very nice call. Short. And why should some other nation be able to say I can't take a call?"

"I think it actually would've been very disrespectful, to be honest with you, not taking it," Trump added.

Trump plans to nominate Iowa Governor Terry Branstad as the next U.S. ambassador to China, choosing a long-standing friend of Beijing after rattling the world's second largest economy with tough talk on trade and the call with the leader of Taiwan.

But in the Fox interview, Trump brought up a litany of complaints about China which he had emphasized during his presidential campaign.

"We're being hurt very badly by China with devaluation, with taxing us heavy at the borders when we don't tax them, with building a massive fortress in the middle of the South China Sea, which they shouldn't be doing, and frankly with not helping us at all with North Korea," Trump said. "You have North Korea. You have nuclear weapons and China could solve that problem and they're not helping us at all."

Economists, including those at the International Monetary Fund, have widely viewed China's efforts to prop up the yuan's value over the past year as evidence that Beijing is no longer keeping its currency artificially low to make Chinese exports cheap.

(Additional reporting by Doina Chiacu and Jeff Mason; Editing by Phil Berlowitz)


http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1400TY

 

[Martian]

The US does not have the military power to grant Taiwan independence.

US recognition of the One China policy isn't that important anymore.

China is simply too strong militarily. China has a law that states it will wage a war of reunification to retake Taiwan if independence is declared.

If Taiwan declares independence as a result of a US refusal to abide by the One China policy, China will act. Since Taiwan is less than 100 miles from mainland China, I think the winner in a military conflict (including the US) is pretty straightforward.

Just like the American Civil War, secession is not permitted.

 

[airtel]

Trump warns China to play by the rules as state media sounds Taiwan warning




Mr Trump with Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, his nominee for the ambassador to China, on Thursday. Mr Branstad will face a Chinese government on edge over Mr Trump’s criticism of the country. Photo: AP



Updated: 10:56 PM, December 9, 2016


WASHINGTON/BEIJING — United States President-elect Donald Trump vowed that China would soon have to “play by the rules” of international trade, as Chinese state media issued its clearest warning yet about its bottom line on Taiwan.

“China is responsible for almost half of America’s trade deficit,” Mr Trump said at a rally early on Friday (Dec 9) in Des Moines, Iowa. “China is not a market economy ... they haven’t played by the rules, and they know it’s time that they’re going to start. They’re going to start. They’re going to.”


At the rally, Mr Trump introduced Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, his nominee for the ambassador to China. Although Mr Branstad has a three-decade personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, he will face a Chinese government already on edge over Mr Trump’s criticism of the country, including last week’s unprecedented call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen.

“I know that China has been so tough and so competitive and frankly dealing with people that didn’t get it,” Mr Trump said. “But we’re going to have mutual respect, and we’re going to benefit and China’s going to benefit and Terry’s going to lead the way.”

However, state-owned newspaper China Daily warned in an editorial on Friday that Mr Trump will face “serious” repercussions should he attempt to revise US policy towards Taiwan.

“Trump may be a shrewd businessman, adroit in commercial deal-cutting. He might have taken a page from his business manual — make a rigorous opening bid, then settle for less,” it said. “But make no mistake about it: Taiwan stands on top of China’s menu of core national interests, and is not negotiable.

“If he is misled by his advisers for whatever reason into believing that unnegotiables are negotiable, in this case the One China principle regarding Taiwan, the consequences could be serious.”

Mr Trump took a historic congratulatory telephone call from Ms Tsai on Dec 2, which is the first direct communication with a Taiwanese leader by a US President or President-elect since President Jimmy Carter switched diplomatic recognition to China from Taiwan in 1979, acknowledging Taiwan as part of “One China”.

Beijing regards the island as a renegade province, to be taken back by force one day, if necessary.

While China lodged a “solemn representation” over the call and urged the US authorities to adhere to the One China principle, it stopped short of criticising the US President-elect.

Mr Trump’s advisers have said the call was planned in advance.

China Daily said on Friday if the call was “a long-planned move as reported and was meant to remind Beijing that it is dealing with a different kind of US President, it need not have happened in the first place, since Beijing is well aware of that”.

“If, as some analysts have observed, the call was Trump’s ‘opening negotiation bid’ for the future of Sino-US ties under his administration, it was rather ill-advised. The consensus on One China has served as the ultimate ballast for China-US relations for nearly four decades, and not without reason.”

Professor Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an expert of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University, said the editorial was intended to send Mr Trump a warning that it, too, was willing to play hard ball. China may have underestimated the foreign policy consequences of Mr Trump’s victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the US election, Prof Cabestan said.

“China was blinded by its hate of Hillary, but did not realise that it is getting a much more offensive US President, supported by a very anti-communist and ambitious Republican Party,” he said in reference to Mrs Clinton. “Taiwan is going to be part of this game, instrumentalised by the Trump administration much more than by Obama, as a leverage of what could be called a ‘super-rebalancing strategy’.” BLOOMBERG


http://www.todayonline.com/world/americas/trump-renews-criticism-china-state-media-warns-taiwan

 

[Martian]

If Trump doesn't recognize the One China policy, there is still no leverage.

In the past, the US recognized the One China policy and it meant nothing. China could not reunify with Taiwan without using force.

Assuming Trump's non-recognition of the One China policy, we are still in the same boat. China still cannot reunify with Taiwan without using force.

Thus, US recognition or non-recognition of the One China policy had no practical effect.

The bottom line remains the same. China can either choose to use military force to force reunification now or wait patiently for Taiwan to change its mind. With either scenario, US recognition or non-recognition of the One China policy has no effect on the outcome of Chinese reunification.

 

[Krusty]

If Trump doesn't recognize the One China policy, there is still no leverage.

You want leverage? There is a huge list, but first let's start with this

You think China is Super strong and can take in the USA? First learn to live without iphone

And China can never take Taipei. It will talk and warn about it, but won't take any action. You are free to live in your dreamland though. Are you going to 'warn' me in true Chinese style?

 

[IndianHawk]

Taipei Times is reporting that the United States has included military exchanges with Taiwan in the latest defense spending bill.

I predict China will probably veto every US resolution at the United Nations Security Council for the next four years. You heard it here first!

US includes Taiwan in military bill | Taipei Times

Like any resolution of UNSC has any meaning for any significant nation

 

[Krusty]

Like any resolution of UNSC has any meaning for any significant nation

UNSC is a joke. It's as meaningless as sunbathing in the Antarctica. No one can agree on anything and vetos flying everywhere to maintain status quo.

 

[IndianHawk]

You want leverage? There is a huge list, but first let's start with this
View attachment 13105
You think China is Super strong and can take in the USA? First learn to live without iphone

And China can never take Taipei. It will talk and warn about it, but won't take any action. You are free to live in your dreamland though. Are you going to 'warn' me in true Chinese style?

Chinese will veto US resolution in UNSC .
He said it in the first post itself.

Americans must all be very very afraid

 

[Krusty]

Chinese will veto US resolution in UNSC .
He said it in the first post itself.

Americans must all be very very afraid

Not as afraid as CCP is of iphone

 

[AmoghaVarsha]

When did UNSC resolution stopped US and NATO?

China is depndent on trade with US and its allies without them Chitnese economy will suffer massive setbacks.

The Chinese cannot and will not wage war againist Taiwan and a assertive US in SCS will put China in its place.A Asian alliance againist China isnt too far fetched.US may not become a member of it but it will finance,facilitate,arm and abett such an alliance

 

[desicanuk]

An aggressive assertive country run by a clique of usurpers and thugs without any mandate and a country that attempts to coerce other nations to play by rules that benefits no country other than PRC reminds me of a fascist European country which suffered a catastrophic defeat not too long ago.I hope the man from Texas
will deliver a dose of realpolitik to Xi Jinping and the gang.

 

[Villager]

Taiwan's Pursuit Of F-35 Tests Donald Trump's Early Rapport With Xi Jinping

Taiwan wants an F-35 variant of the stealth warplane, which was designed for US Marines.

Taiwan's push to include F-35 fighter jets in its first arms deal with President Donald Trump could pose the next challenge to the diplomatic detente between the new U.S. leader and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Taiwan, which has for decades relied on U.S. security aid to deter any attack by China, plans to add the Lockheed Martin aircraft to a weapons purchase list due to be submitted as soon as July. At the same time, the island intends to drop a longstanding request for more advanced F-16s to replace its aging fleet that the U.S. hasn't approved, according to Wang Ting-yu, head of the Taiwanese legislature's Foreign and National Defense Committee.


"We hope we can get F-35s," Wang told Bloomberg News. "We have been waiting for updated F-16s for too long. Their time has gone. If we buy them now, in 10 years time they'll be no use."

Taiwan's pursuit of one of the world's most advanced fighter jets would pit Trump's goal of boosting exports against his effort to foster cooperation with Xi since their first meeting earlier this month. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have been a persistent irritant to China, which views the island as its territory and reserves the right to attack should Taipei move to formalize its de facto independence.

Su Hao, an international relations professor at China Foreign Affairs University, which is affiliated with the country's foreign ministry, said any F-35 sale would represent a "very problematic" upgrade to Taiwan's military relationship with the U.S. He predicted that Trump was more likely to use it as a bargaining chip than approve it.


"An actual sale would cause a serious setback in bilateral ties, which are just returning to a normal track after the summit in Florida," Su said. "It would become a huge challenge for both leaders to handle were the sale to take place. Beijing would oppose it without reservation."

Taiwan often doesn't get everything it asks for, particularly when the weaponry would anger China. No U.S. president has agreed to sell advanced fighter jets to Taiwan since George H.W. Bush in 1992. China suspended military talks with the U.S. in 2010 after President Barack Obama's administration announced a $6.4 billion arms sale -- and that deal that didn't include the new F-16s Taiwan wanted.

Obama eventually agreed in 2011 to upgrade Taiwan's existing fleet of about 140 F-16s. Tensions have only increased since then, with last year's election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen -- the leader of a pro-independence party -- and Trump's decision to flout decades of U.S. diplomatic policy and speak with her by phone in December.

A U.S. State Department official who asked not to be identified said that defense sales under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 were based on an assessment of Taiwan's defense needs. The agency doesn't comment on proposed defense sales until Congress has been notified, the official said.

"We resolutely oppose any county selling weapons to Taiwan," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Yang Yujun said when asked Thursday about the possible F-35 request at a regular briefing in Beijing.

Taiwan wants the F-35B variant of the stealth warplane, which was designed for the U.S. Marines and can take off from short surfaces and land vertically. The fighter jet, which has also been ordered by Italy and the U.K., could help Taiwan maintain air defense should any Chinese missile attack destroy its runways.

"We will submit our request to the U.S. to purchase jets in July," said Wang, who's a member of Tsai's Democratic Progressive Party. "We hope the U.S. understands our needs. Our fighter jets really are too old."

Besides diplomatic considerations, there are questions about whether Taiwan could afford the F-35 or whether the warplane would provide the most effective defense. A price tag of about $100 million each would quickly drain the $2.2 billion Taiwan has set aside for hardware purchases this year.

"One question that should be addressed is the cost-benefit analysis," said Richard Bush, the director of the Brookings Institution's Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies and a former U.S. envoy to Taiwan. "Why does Taiwan believe that getting this very expensive system will enhance deterrence enough to justify the use of scarce resources?"

A RAND Corp. report published last year highlighted China's growing aerial advantage and recommended that Taiwan downsized its fighter fleet in favor of stronger surface-to-air missile defenses.

Retired Major General Xu Guangyu, a senior researcher at the Beijing-based China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, said acquiring enough F-35s would take Taiwan too long to make a difference. By that time, China's own next-generation fighters -- the J-20 and J-31 -- should be in widespread use, Xu said.

"It suits Taiwan's geography and it would also please the Americans, because that's their main export fighter jet," he said. "It'd be too late to tip the balance."

Bloomberg contributors: Nick Wadhams Tony Capaccio and Peter Martin

 

[Villager]

My Prediction China will get Taiwan sooner or later.

 

[sorcerer]

Any invasion would be 'very costly' for Beijing, Taiwan President warns China - Times of India


TAIPEI: China must rethink its hardline stance towards Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Wednesday, as she warned the island was already independent and that any invasion would be "very costly" for Beijing.
Tsai won a second term over the weekend with a record 8.2 million votes, an outcome that was seen as a forceful rebuke of China's ongoing campaign to isolate the self-ruled island.

China's leadership had made no secret of its desire to see Tsai turfed out because she and her party refuse to acknowledge their view that the island is part of a "one China".
Beijing regards Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to one day seize it, by force if necessary — especially if it declares independence.
But in her first interview since Saturday's re-election, Tsai told the BBC there was no need to formally announce independence because the island already runs itself.
"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," she said in the interview, which aired on Wednesday.
"We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan."
Modern Taiwan has been run separately from the mainland for the last 70 years.
For decades, it was a dictatorship under Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists following their 1949 defeat to the communists in China's civil war.
But since the 1980s, it has morphed into one of Asia's most progressive democracies, although it is only diplomatically recognised by a dwindling handful of countries.
Polls show growing numbers of Taiwanese reject the idea that the island should be part of the Chinese mainland.
"We have a separate identity and we're a country of our own," Tsai said. "We deserve respect from China".
China has greeted Tsai's re-election with anger, warning against any move to push the island closer towards independence.
"Splitting the country is doomed to leave a name that will stink for eternity," foreign minister Wang Yi said this week.
Chinese state media also accused Tsai of winning the election through cheating, without providing evidence.
On Wednesday, Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office said there were no plans to change policy towards the island after the landslide election.
"Taiwan's future lies in the unification of the country," spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said, adding its future must be decided by "all Chinese people".
But Tsai said China should respect the wishes of Taiwan's electorate.
"I hope the Chinese side can understand in-depth the opinion and will expressed by Taiwanese people in this election and can review some of their current policies," she told reporters on Wednesday.
Tsai was speaking as she announced a new "anti-infiltration law" had been signed into effect making it illegal to launch political activities that are backed or funded by "hostile external forces".
Supporters say the bill is aimed at clamping down on China's infiltration of Taiwan's politics while opponents called it anti-democratic.
In her interview — which came as Taiwan held annual military drills on the south of the island — Tsai warned Beijing against sending in troops.
"Invading Taiwan is something that is going to be very costly for China," she said.
Critics accuse Tsai of being needlessly antagonistic towards Beijing.
But Tsai said she had resisted pressure from within her own party to be more forceful on the issue of independence.
"There are so many pressures, so much pressure here that we should go further," she said.
"Maintaining a status quo remains our policy... I think that is a very friendly gesture to China."
Tsai has repeatedly said she is willing to talk to Beijing as long as there are no pre-conditions.
But Beijing has refused, cutting off official communication with her administration.


Over the last four years, it has also has ramped up economic, military and diplomatic pressure, hoping it would scare voters into supporting the opposition.
But the strong-arm tactics backfired with voters resoundingly backing Tsai for another four more years.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...resident-warns-china/articleshow/73268155.cms

 

[f3243007008]

You want leverage? There is a huge list, but first let's start with this
View attachment 13105
You think China is Super strong and can take in the USA? First learn to live without iphone

And China can never take Taipei. It will talk and warn about it, but won't take any action. You are free to live in your dreamland though. Are you going to 'warn' me in true Chinese style?

Iphone only the 3rd , why are you so confident?

 

[f3243007008]

Any invasion would be 'very costly' for Beijing, Taiwan President warns China - Times of India


TAIPEI: China must rethink its hardline stance towards Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen said on Wednesday, as she warned the island was already independent and that any invasion would be "very costly" for Beijing.
Tsai won a second term over the weekend with a record 8.2 million votes, an outcome that was seen as a forceful rebuke of China's ongoing campaign to isolate the self-ruled island.

China's leadership had made no secret of its desire to see Tsai turfed out because she and her party refuse to acknowledge their view that the island is part of a "one China".
Beijing regards Taiwan as its territory and has vowed to one day seize it, by force if necessary — especially if it declares independence.
But in her first interview since Saturday's re-election, Tsai told the BBC there was no need to formally announce independence because the island already runs itself.
"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," she said in the interview, which aired on Wednesday.
"We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan."
Modern Taiwan has been run separately from the mainland for the last 70 years.
For decades, it was a dictatorship under Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists following their 1949 defeat to the communists in China's civil war.
But since the 1980s, it has morphed into one of Asia's most progressive democracies, although it is only diplomatically recognised by a dwindling handful of countries.
Polls show growing numbers of Taiwanese reject the idea that the island should be part of the Chinese mainland.
"We have a separate identity and we're a country of our own," Tsai said. "We deserve respect from China".
China has greeted Tsai's re-election with anger, warning against any move to push the island closer towards independence.
"Splitting the country is doomed to leave a name that will stink for eternity," foreign minister Wang Yi said this week.
Chinese state media also accused Tsai of winning the election through cheating, without providing evidence.
On Wednesday, Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office said there were no plans to change policy towards the island after the landslide election.
"Taiwan's future lies in the unification of the country," spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said, adding its future must be decided by "all Chinese people".
But Tsai said China should respect the wishes of Taiwan's electorate.
"I hope the Chinese side can understand in-depth the opinion and will expressed by Taiwanese people in this election and can review some of their current policies," she told reporters on Wednesday.
Tsai was speaking as she announced a new "anti-infiltration law" had been signed into effect making it illegal to launch political activities that are backed or funded by "hostile external forces".
Supporters say the bill is aimed at clamping down on China's infiltration of Taiwan's politics while opponents called it anti-democratic.
In her interview — which came as Taiwan held annual military drills on the south of the island — Tsai warned Beijing against sending in troops.
"Invading Taiwan is something that is going to be very costly for China," she said.
Critics accuse Tsai of being needlessly antagonistic towards Beijing.
But Tsai said she had resisted pressure from within her own party to be more forceful on the issue of independence.
"There are so many pressures, so much pressure here that we should go further," she said.
"Maintaining a status quo remains our policy... I think that is a very friendly gesture to China."
Tsai has repeatedly said she is willing to talk to Beijing as long as there are no pre-conditions.
But Beijing has refused, cutting off official communication with her administration.


Over the last four years, it has also has ramped up economic, military and diplomatic pressure, hoping it would scare voters into supporting the opposition.
But the strong-arm tactics backfired with voters resoundingly backing Tsai for another four more years.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...resident-warns-china/articleshow/73268155.cms

But China will bear the cost。。。

 

[f3243007008]

See what USA says

U.S. and China Will Likely Go to War In the Next 30 Years - James Fanell