- Joined
- Apr 17, 2009
- Messages
- 43,132
- Likes
- 23,835
It appears that there is a whole lot of political underplay at work.Uncertainty looms over China change
Fight over leadership positions begins between factions led by Hu and Jiang
With only six weeks to go before the formal unveiling of a new set of leaders for China, Communist Party elders and senior officials are still deciding who will ascend to the top ruling bodies and what policy direction they will adopt for the new team, political insiders and analysts say .
After nearly a year in which planning for the succession has been upset by an extraordinary string of scandals, the leaders and elders finally agreed on November 8 as the date to begin the 18th Party Congress, the climax of just the second peaceful transfer of power in China's Communist era.
Much of the back-andforth over the succession, which officials have kept behind a curtain of secrecy, has involved horse-trading over leadership positions between a faction led by President Hu Jintao and one loyal to his predecessor, Jiang Zemin.
In recent negotiations, Jiang and his allies, who include Xi Jinping, the designated heir to Hu, appear to have had the upper hand, several political insiders said. Jiang's attendance at a concert on September 22 was interpreted by some as a signal that he was still a force in the game of imperial politics.
One blow to Hu this sum mer was the quiet unfolding of a scandal involving a powerful politician, Ling Jihua, who is Hu's fixer.Now another stress point is becoming evident: Hu appears on the defensive over his legacy because of growing criticism that policies enacted during his decade-long tenure were responsible for the excessive growth of the security forces and also stalled an overhaul of the Chinese economy that is needed to maintain its dynamism.
"Right now, I think Hu feels very worried because a lot of people both inside and outside the party have been criticising him," said a party intellectual with ties to the leadership.
"Some say he's the worst leader China has had since 1949. Conflicts in society have intensified; monopolistic and anti-market tendencies in the economy seem to have intensified; and there's been no real progress on reform." Plans for the political agenda and some slots in the new leadership have been tightly contested and closely held.
Several people with ties to top leaders usually aware of details for the party congress said they did not even know the event's starting date until shortly before it was announced.
In recent weeks,aterritorial dispute with Japan and sobering economic statistics that point to a worrisome slowdown have added stress.
But a much greater factor behind the uncertainty and delay,i nsiders say, has been the fallout from the scandals.
The ripples are still being felt. On Friday, along with announcing the date of the party congress,Chinese leaders said that Bo Xilai, who was felled this year by a seismic scandal, would be expelled from the party and prosecuted on a wide range of accusations,including taking bribes and abusing his power.
"Beijing has to clean this up before the 18th Party Congress," said Li Datong, a former editor of a liberal section of China Youth Daily,astaterun newspaper.Outside the downfall of Bo — which was precipitated by charges that his wife had murdered a British business acquaintance — the biggest scandal has been the death of the son of Ling, who was the head of the party's General Office.
The son was killed under lurid circumstances involving the crash of a Ferrari in March.Partly as a result, Ling was moved on September 1
from his post to another job, well before an expected transfer.Amid the intrigue and factional struggles,p olitical insiders said that meetings in late July and August in Beijing and at Beidaihe,abeach resort, did not yield substantial results.Party elders and leaders did not make big decisions on policy for the incoming leadership or complete appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee,w hich currently has nine members and rules China.
The standing committee's makeup will be the most watched decision at the congress.Xi, the son of a Communist guerrilla leader,is expected to take the top seat as party chief,and Li Keqiang, pegged to be the Prime Minister,is all but certain to get the secondor third-ranking seat. Xi vanished from public view for two weeks in early September,purportedly because of an injury, and that fuelled talk of tensions over preparations for the congress.H is reappearance has not quieted the rumours.
Speculation has swirled around the other potential candidates for the standing committee, which many predict will shrink to seven. Beyond the top two, three men are now seen as safe bets: Li Yuanchao, the head of the Organisation Department and expected to be the next vicepresident; Wang Qishan, a vice-premier; and Zhang Dejiang, another vice-premier.
But after numerous twists, several other top candidates do not appear yet to have secured a seat
Uncertainty looms over China change
Where does the rivalry between Hu and Jiang fit in?
Which side was Bo on and which side was Ling on, whose son was killed?
What will be the final outcome?
Where does Jumping fit into all this intrigue and backroom parleys and knife in the back political shenanigans?
