Uncanny resemblance: Is Balochistan the next Bangladesh?

Blackwater

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It has been 41 years today. 41 years ago, Pakistan was broken up into two parts, the former West Pakistan and Bangladesh. Apart from a distance of around 1000 miles separating the two parts of Pakistan, there was enough resentment on part of East Pakistani populace that manifested in a demand for provincial autonomy.

East Pakistan supplied so much of revenue to the federation but got little development in response. Moving the capital from Karachi to Islamabad and limited participation of East Pakistanis in the bureaucracy were some other contentious issues. In the national elections held in 1970, Bengali Nationalist Party, Awami Party, won majority of seats in the National Assembly. Following palace intrigues and a military operation, there was no transfer of power and after the military's defeat in December, 1971, Bangladesh came into being.

I am reiterating all this today because I am extremely worried about another part of Pakistan following a similar fate. There is little to no understanding or national dialogue on the issue of Balochistan, what our state has done there and what lies in the future.

Let's talk a little about Balochistan today. I'd like to start with brief history of the province and then the problems it has faced.

The term 'Balochistan' is a Persian origin word made of 'Baloch' and 'Aastan', which means 'The place of the Baloch (people)'.

Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan and by area constitutes 47% of the country. Before the independence of Pakistan in 1947, Balochistan primarily comprised of four 'princely states' and a 'British Baluchistan' province during the British Raj that were later amalgamated to form the Pakistani province of Balochistan later. These states were, Kalat, Lasbela, Makran and Kharan.

The periods of 1948, 1958, 1962-69, and 1974-77, and the current post-2000s eras are pertinent where political tensions have led to varying degrees of violence in Balochistan. Nationalist elements allege of a forced accession of the old Baloch princely states of Kalat and its vassals in March 1948, as well as crackdown on nationalist activity throughout the last 64 years as cause of deepening animosity towards Pakistan among the Baloch.

Khan Abdul Karim Khan's rebellion, with nearly a hundred followers over Kalat's controversial accession to Pakistan, was the first phase of conflict in Balochistan until he was apprehended and jailed by the authorities. The second phase was over the dissolution of the Balochistan States Union and its incorporation into the 'One Unit' system of West Pakistan in 1958. This phase began by the arrest of the Khan of Kalat, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, by the regime of General Ayub Khan, and reached its peak with the Jhalawan disturbances led by a Khan of Kalat loyalist, the elderly Nawab Nauroz Khan Zarakzai and his Zehri tribal militia.

He and his followers were later arrested and incarcerated for life.

The third phase was led by the Baloch Peoples Liberation Front (BPLF) of Sher Muhammad Marri against the Ayub regime. The fourth phase was in wake of the dismissal of the National Awami Party (NAP) government in Balochistan by Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, and the arrest of NAP leaders. This caused a large scale rebellion by various Baloch tribes against Pakistan and the military was called in to quell the rebellion with added help from Iran. It only ended when Bhutto was deposed in a military coup by General Zia-ul-Haq in 1977 and general amnesty was announced to Baloch rebels to end the hostilities.

After a lull period for nearly 25 years, different militant groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) had started to utilise the power vacuum in Afghanistan to launch sporadic attacks inside Pakistani Balochistan.

However, the recent phase of conflict escalated due to the killing of former Balochistan Chief Minister and prominent tribal chief Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti during a military operation against his armed militia in 2006.

What initially began with disputes over royalty and rental payments for extraction of natural gas from Dera Bugti district of Balochistan, spiralled out of control and became an armed insurgency.

The comparisons with Bangladesh are apparent.

Balochistan is providing the rest of Pakistan with natural gas and coal and has abundant mineral reserves at Saindak and Reko Diq. According to the Pakistan National Human Development Report 2003, Balochistan and its districts were assessed to be the worst off in Pakistan. Amongst the top 31 districts with the highest HDI, Punjab had by far the largest share at 59 per cent, while Balochistan lagged far behind at nine per cent.

According to the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC),

"An overview of the development scene in Balochistan is appalling and the extent of relative deprivation in the province is unspeakable".

92 per cent of Balochistan's districts are classified as 'high deprivation' compared to 50 per cent in Sindh and 29 per cent in Punjab.

The story at the population level is equally grim. The Pakistan Integrated Household Survey 2001-02 revealed that Balochistan had the most poor (48 per cent of the province's population) and the worst level of rural poverty (51 per cent).

Balochistan has the highest infant and maternal mortality ratio in South Asia; 25 per cent of the population has access to electricity (national average, 75 per cent) and the male literary rate is 18.3 per cent and the female literacy rate, a mere seven percent.

For a lot of apolitical/recently political youth of Pakistan, there is a lot to be known about Balochistan and even now, it's not too late. Balochis are as equally Pakistanis as the rest of us. They need to be given equal share of attention as is given to insane political feuds in Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad. In the progressive circles, sympathy with Baloch nationalists is a fashion statement. The only news we get from Balochistan is bad news.

Target killings, missing persons, sectarian trouble and dumped corpses are the only few issues that are deemed important by national media to be discussed in Balochistan's perspective. Superficial steps including the Balochistan Rights Package have improved nothing. I believe that until youth in other provinces start taking interest in the affairs of Balochistan and what is happening there, very little is going to change.

We can't afford another Bangladesh and for that not to happen, we need to learn about Balochistan. For starters, we need to talk about it.

Uncanny resemblance: Is Balochistan the next Bangladesh? – The Express Tribune Blog
 

agentperry

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not possible. first of all there is no cold war going on. secondly leadership in india is not like indira gandhi who can bring about anything like bangladesh liberation. third and most importantly- west just want to have access to CAR and they dont care how they get it and who provide it- they will be happy with pakistan too thus giving ample support to pakistani establishment in keeping it in one piece or whatever islamabad wishes
 

roma

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not possible. first of all there is no cold war going on. secondly leadership in india is not like indira gandhi who can bring about anything like bangladesh liberation. third and most importantly- west just want to have access to CAR and they dont care how they get it and who provide it- they will be happy with pakistan too thus giving ample support to pakistani establishment in keeping it in one piece or whatever islamabad wishes
for the sake of debate :- west doesnt want dragon influence and connection to the oil-rich states around the arabian sea area via b-stan - so although the out come will not be like b-desh , nevertheless we could see some interesting innovations politically here
 

Blackwater

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not possible. first of all there is no cold war going on. secondly leadership in india is not like indira gandhi who can bring about anything like bangladesh liberation. third and most importantly- west just want to have access to CAR and they dont care how they get it and who provide it- they will be happy with pakistan too thus giving ample support to pakistani establishment in keeping it in one piece or whatever islamabad wishes
you forgot ameerikaaa ,and nato leardership:cool2::cool2::cool2:
 

datguy79

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not possible. first of all there is no cold war going on. secondly leadership in india is not like indira gandhi who can bring about anything like bangladesh liberation. third and most importantly- west just want to have access to CAR and they dont care how they get it and who provide it- they will be happy with pakistan too thus giving ample support to pakistani establishment in keeping it in one piece or whatever islamabad wishes
west can access the CAR just fine through the Georgia-Azerbaijan route.
 

musalman

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Difference between East Pakistan and Baluchistan.

1. East Pakistan was separated from West by more than 1000 KM. India which was the enemy was between the two. Same is not the case, in case of Baluchistan.
2. Baluchistan region is sandwich between Pakistan and Iran. Both co-operate in suppressing the Baluchistan rebellion.
3. In case of E Pakistan, Pakistan was unable to send supplies to its army. This is not the case now.
4. East Pakistan was predominately one nation which was Bengalis. In case of Baluchistan predominate nation there is Pushtun followed by Baluch, Braohis and Hazara. Pushtun and Hazara are 100% loyal to Pakistan. In case of Baluch if one clan in pro Independence than other will be pro Pakistan. e.g. Kalpars hate Bugtai. Kalpars are in favour of Pakistan etc. Even half of the Bugtais are pro Pakistan.
 

Blackwater

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Difference between East Pakistan and Baluchistan.

1. East Pakistan was separated from West by more than 1000 KM. India which was the enemy was between the two. Same is not the case, in case of Baluchistan.
2. Baluchistan region is sandwich between Pakistan and Iran. Both co-operate in suppressing the Baluchistan rebellion.
3. In case of E Pakistan, Pakistan was unable to send supplies to its army. This is not the case now.
4. East Pakistan was predominately one nation which was Bengalis. In case of Baluchistan predominate nation there is Pushtun followed by Baluch, Braohis and Hazara. Pushtun and Hazara are 100% loyal to Pakistan. In case of Baluch if one clan in pro Independence than other will be pro Pakistan. e.g. Kalpars hate Bugtai. Kalpars are in favour of Pakistan etc. Even half of the Bugtais are pro Pakistan.

:whistle::drunk::puke::puke::fu::bplease::bplease:
 

spikey360

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India would be best served by instigating a revolution there and propping up a secular autocratic regime like that of Saddam/Gaddafi. That autocrat must be a strong pro-India, mildly anti-Pakistan like Karzai. He must have friendly relations with Iran and shouldn't be too welcoming towards China or the US. The country Baluchistan must be poor enough that we have to send contractors to build up infra there. Also, they should be importing a lot of things from us.
If ever we were to have a win-win situation in SE Asia, this would be the stepping stone.
 

musalman

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India would be best served by instigating a revolution there and propping up a secular autocratic regime like that of Saddam/Gaddafi. That autocrat must be a strong pro-India, mildly anti-Pakistan like Karzai. He must have friendly relations with Iran and shouldn't be too welcoming towards China or the US. The country Baluchistan must be poor enough that we have to send contractors to build up infra there. Also, they should be importing a lot of things from us.
If ever we were to have a win-win situation in SE Asia, this would be the stepping stone.
Not possible to have that kind of regime in Baluchistan and have good relation with Iran. Iran would never like an independent Baluchistan as it holds half of Baluchistan.
 

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Pakistan may disintegrate again, warns AQ Khan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is at present in a worse situation than it was in 1971, said disgraced nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, warning that "the day will not be far off when we disintegrate again" if social evils are not rectified soon.

"The country is at present in a worse situation than it was in 1971. It is plagued with all kinds of social evils. If we don't rectify this soon, the day will not be far off when we disintegrate again. In order to rectify the situation, the first and foremost necessity is to disengage ourselves from the foreign war and put our own house in order," Khan wrote in an article "Events of 1971" in the opinion section of a newspaper.

Khan was referring to the war of the India-Pakistan war of 1971, which led to the birth of Bangladesh.

He observed that all nations go through ups and downs - they have glorious periods and tragic ones. People usually ignore and forget the tragic ones while celebrating the good events with great pomp.

"It is most unfortunate that we in Pakistan have also not learnt any lessons from our past tragic mistakes. The breaking up of Pakistan on December 16, 1971, was one such recent event.

"Millions of Pakistanis are fully aware of the reasons behind that tragedy, but it seems that our rulers and the establishment are oblivious to these, despite the fact that it was such a traumatic experience," he wrote.

Khan was put under house arrest in 2004 after confessing to have sent nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea and sought the nation's forgiveness. He later retracted his remarks and alleged that he had been forced by former president Gen (retd.) Pervez Musharraf to make the statement.

His opinion piece said that the country was broken up, "hundreds of thousands of people were killed, women were raped and almost 92,000 army and other personnel were taken prisoner".

"...As is usual here, nobody was held responsible for such a big and tragic disaster."

Recalling the events, Khan wrote: "We know that in March 1971 Gen Yahya Khan sent Gen Tikka Khan to East Pakistan to crush `insurgents'. We saw our own army killing our own people. It is a well-known fact that, when given absolute power, people become cruel."

"Extremely horrible scenes were shown on TV abroad (I was in Belgium at the time) and I was ashamed to see that such cruel acts could be perpetrated by Muslims against Muslims - Pakistanis against fellow-Pakistanis. Everybody is aware of the fact that West Pakistani baboos considered East Pakistan a colony and treated its citizens in the same way as the British used to treat us."

He went on to say that the present situation in the country is not very different from that of 1971.

"Then, as now, the rulers and the establishment were under the illusion that they could and would crush their opponents...We are behaving no better than mercenaries - killing our own people for a few bucks. We have forgotten how to protect our own borders and sovereignty," he added.

Khan went on to say that it is unfortunate that both our political and military leaders are under the illusion that they can crush their opponents.

"They could not manage to do that to a very docile nation in 1971, how then can they contemplate crushing a martial race? They will be fighting for a thousand years and bleed the country to destruction and disintegration," he warned.

"The rulers and the establishment are using our poor, brave soldiers as cannon fodder for the sake of a paltry sum in dollars. This money does not contribute to our economy or strength..."
 

spikey360

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^^Well, well, well.. Look who's started speaking some home truths.
 

Virendra

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Not possible to have that kind of regime in Baluchistan and have good relation with Iran. Iran would never like an independent Baluchistan as it holds half of Baluchistan.
If the condition in Baluchistan worstens, can Iran instead encourage it thinking to get rid of the Baloch by letting them have their country out of Pakistan?
 

Agnostic Muslim

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Difference between East Pakistan and Baluchistan.

1. East Pakistan was separated from West by more than 1000 KM. India which was the enemy was between the two. Same is not the case, in case of Baluchistan.
2. Baluchistan region is sandwich between Pakistan and Iran. Both co-operate in suppressing the Baluchistan rebellion.
3. In case of E Pakistan, Pakistan was unable to send supplies to its army. This is not the case now.
4. East Pakistan was predominately one nation which was Bengalis. In case of Baluchistan predominate nation there is Pushtun followed by Baluch, Braohis and Hazara. Pushtun and Hazara are 100% loyal to Pakistan. In case of Baluch if one clan in pro Independence than other will be pro Pakistan. e.g. Kalpars hate Bugtai. Kalpars are in favour of Pakistan etc. Even half of the Bugtais are pro Pakistan.
One other point on the demographics of Balochistan is that the the overall population of the province (even with combining the Pashtun,Baloch and other ethnic groups) is tiny compared to the population of then East Pakistan.When you consider this fact in conjunction with the fact that half (or perhaps more) of the population of Balochistan is non-Baloch, an East Pakistan style insurgency and separation, even with foreign support, is just not feasible.
 

Agnostic Muslim

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If the condition in Baluchistan worstens, can Iran instead encourage it thinking to get rid of the Baloch by letting them have their country out of Pakistan?
Why would an 'Independent Balochistan' not instead lend support to the insurgents in Iran, and why would the Iranians assume that the US and its allies would not use an 'Independent Balochistan' to destabilize Iran's Sistan province?
 
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Agnostic Muslim

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WRT to the 'economic deprivation' arguments of the author of the article in the OP:

BALOCHISTAN has historically held the centre wholly responsible for the province's underdevelopment and economic backwardness. But now the province cannot absolve itself of responsibility, as it has received unprecedented funds under the seventh National Finance Commission (NFC) award and more autonomy after the passage of the 18th Amendment.

What it still lacks, however, is political will.

The 18th Amendment and the NFC award empowered the provinces and altered the flow of funds to them. Balochistan got increased fiscal space and powers to improve its socio-economic condition. It is now largely responsible for the delivery of goods and services and it should be held accountable for its poor performance in this regard.

Under the seventh NFC award, Balochistan's share in the divisible pool increased to 9.1 per cent from the earlier 5.1 per cent; the province received Rs83bn in 2010-11 compared to Rs29bn in 2009-10. It also won Rs120bn in gas development surcharge arrears outstanding since 1954, to be paid in annual instalments of Rs12bn. The increase in funds from the divisible pool, the retrospective increase in the well-head gas price and the reimbursement of gas arrears helped raise revenue receipts by 95 per cent to Rs116bn in 2010-11.

In addition, the 18th Amendment fulfilled Balochistan's long-standing demand for provincial autonomy. It devolved 17 ministries and shifted several subjects to the domain of joint decision-making between the provinces and the federation.

But how has Balochistan handled these additional responsibilities? There is still a big question mark against the performance and capacity of the Balochistan government, as there has been no improvement in the delivery of goods and services to the people. With the increased revenue, the provincial government seems to have done little more than purchase a new aeroplane and increase discretionary funds to Rs300m this year for each legislator to spend in his constituency.


Meanwhile, the province's economic potential remains untapped. For economic planners, it represents a bonanza in the shape of its natural endowments and geostrategic location.

What have the economic managers in Quetta done to tap the huge development potential of key sectors including agriculture, mining and fisheries?

Setting priorities for budgetary allocations for different sectors is the key area where prudence and foresight are needed. For instance, the water-starved province badly needs a mega development plan for water resources as its groundwater table is persistently declining. Similarly, the gas reserves at Sui, the country's single largest gas-producing field, are falling by five per cent each year and may be exhausted by 2022. Gas revenue is the major source of the province's income, and discovery of new gas wells should be the top priority of the provincial government, which it does not seem to be.

The province did give higher priority to education in the previous and current years' budgets. Yet the bulk of the education budget was allocated for the release of salaries for teachers and for building schools to benefit the construction mafia. How many technical training centres and quality educational institutions has the provincial government planned or set up?

The province will remain in the underdevelopment trap until and unless its human resources are developed and its institutional capacity improved.

The province's own revenue generation is currently estimated at only around Rs5bn, of which only a paltry amount comes from taxes. The government has not yet taken any new measures to broaden the province's revenue base, which could reduce its dependence on the centre.


It has no money, for example, to bear the financial costs of its legal fight against international miners over the Reko Diq copper and gold deposits. For this it is again looking to the federal government, which has refused to pay the Rs450m fees for legal experts to fight the international arbitration case filed by Tethyan Copper Company. How will the Balochistan government pay damages if the international court rules against it when it is unable to pay even the fees for legal experts?

At the same time, what we have also witnessed in the last two years is an unprecedented increase in the size of the province's budget. The Rs152bn budgetary outlay for 2010-11 was almost double that of 2009-10. The Rs172bn budget for the current fiscal includes development expenditures of Rs36bn and non-development expenditures of Rs144bn.

But Balochistan's remote rural areas still appear to be stuck in the Middle Ages, with residents using donkey-run fans in the hot summer in Naseerabad and Dera Murad Jamali, travelling on camels in Jhal Magsi, and burning wood and coal for fire during the chilling cold in the northern areas of the province.

This under-utilisation of the development budget reflects poor fiscal planning and management due to lack of institutional and human capacity. Fiscal and physical targets do not match. The province lacks a strong, efficient and well-coordinated institutional framework for its development.

A key issue is the law and order situation, which is also the responsibility of the provincial government. Had it taken effective measures, the security situation would not have worsened to the level it now is in the province. And it was the failure and inaction of the provincial government that gave the military establishment a chance to interfere in the Balochistan situation.

With its increased fiscal space the province should be able to meet its development needs adequately, but efficient management of resources is badly needed. The government needs to mobilise all its energies to improve the law and order situation and then utilise resources to speed up the industrialisation process in the province in order to cope with its economic problems.

The writer is the author of Economic Development of Balochistan.

[email protected]

Balochistan's duty | DAWN.COM
 

Bangalorean

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^^Well, well, well.. Look who's started speaking some home truths.
Photochor Khan has a serious grouse against the Paki establishment for treating him shabbily. I hope RAW has worked on him and tried to bribe him with money/women/whatever it takes to get info on the Paki nuke program.
 

Virendra

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@Agnostic Muslim
Agreed. But hasn't Iran already wired its entire boundary with Pakistan (or perhaps it is under progress).
Preparing for a contingency ??
 
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Agnostic Muslim

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Agreed. But hasn't Iran already wired its entire boundary with Pakistan (or perhaps it is under progress).
Preparing for a contingency ??
The Iranians already accuse the US and its allies of 'supporting terrorists in Sistan', and the Iranian relationship with Pakistan has deteriorated because the Iranians have accused Pakistan of being complicit, directly or indirectly, in US support for terrorists in Sistan.

The increased Iranian security on the Iran-Pakistan border is for a variety of reasons:

- suspicions that the US is funneling support to insurgents in Iran through the Iran-Pakistan border
- drugs and weapons smuggling across the border
- preventing insurgents in Sistan from easily escaping into Balochistan and receiving resources from sympathetic Pakistan based Baloch insurgent/terrorist groups.
 

datguy79

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Not possible to have that kind of regime in Baluchistan and have good relation with Iran. Iran would never like an independent Baluchistan as it holds half of Baluchistan.
An independent Baluchistan will still inherit the current borders as a new state. Iran can't like it, but it can't do much about it without facing major backlash.
 

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