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(English Translation)
March 22, 2012 08:08
Deng Xiaoping once said that in 1978 China will need to recharge your batteries for 50 years. Less than 50 years, China has now become so powerful. Today, China is so large, economic development is so fast that it does any act will be the world's impact. The reality is that Western concern for China, as well as concern the influence of the whole world is not enough. We all should be serious consideration of this issue.
All the big transition of power from Portugal to Spain, from Spain to the Netherlands from the Netherlands to the UK from the United Kingdom to the United States, are very difficult. Now we face another transition, from United States to China. The United States will not easily accept such a transition. Interestingly, one of U.S. President Barack Obama's favorite book is a "forecast" a book written books. The book that the United States still is the world's most powerful nation, and I think China is. Obama praised the United States remains a strong point of view, illustrates the United States will not easily accept their decline.
In my opinion, a country's economy will be able to dominate the world from three perspectives to determine: the size of the economy, the size of the trade, and for the outside world how powerful. These three factors combine to do an index from 1870 until 2030. The index shows that to 2010, China and the U.S. leading index is basically the same; 2030, China has been far ahead of the United States, when the equivalent of the British in 1870 and the United States after World War II, the advantage of . By 2030, we are talking about is not the G20, is not the G7, G2, and only a country. Economically-driven world of time than we expected, much faster, but the scope is much broader extent is much deeper.
China's economic growth rate in the past 30 years was 10% annually over the next 20 years, I estimate that this data is between 6.5% -7%. China's economic slowdown is not out of bad things, but because of the wealth of a country's growth to a certain extent, its economic growth rate will come down.
With all countries, China's current pace of change is already down, this is because there are some interest groups do not want to reform. The key issue now is how to deal with these political forces opposed to reform. This, in this week with Premier Wen Jiabao met with, I suggest to find a method to deal with anti-reform political forces, at the same time to compensate for the loss in the reform crowd.
In addition, people are always worried about China's economy will not be a hard landing, there will be any crisis. In my view, China faces the possibility of a great crisis is not great. Even if China is really facing a crisis, it is also successful to get out from this crisis. Because the process of recovery in China, a relatively good foundation in terms of policy, monetary easing, also provide some financial support, It's like the Chinese government in 2008 to do the same. But is not a particularly bad time, that is simultaneously social and political issues.
If the United States as the last strong, want to maintain their own power, and China as an emerging strong, was about to exercise their powers, the conflict between China and the United States will produce. The United States and other countries want to prevent the rise of China, but I do not think they have the ability to prevent the rise of China. So, in economic and trade, the United States should not take hostile China's strategy. When the rise of the world has a country like China, the world should be more through multilateral way to solve the problem, rather than through a bilateral way. Strong is definitely the leader of the rules, but in a multilateral system, the rule making power to divert the traffic, the strong powers would be restricted. China is a rising, we now need to do is through the multilateral system to affect the strength of China is growing. (Arvind Subramanian, senior research fellow of the American Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Copyright works without the "Global Times" written authorization is forbidden and offenders will be held liable.
(Editor: Huangzai Juan, Li Yang Yang)
Original Chinese Text:
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March 22, 2012 08:08
Deng Xiaoping once said that in 1978 China will need to recharge your batteries for 50 years. Less than 50 years, China has now become so powerful. Today, China is so large, economic development is so fast that it does any act will be the world's impact. The reality is that Western concern for China, as well as concern the influence of the whole world is not enough. We all should be serious consideration of this issue.
All the big transition of power from Portugal to Spain, from Spain to the Netherlands from the Netherlands to the UK from the United Kingdom to the United States, are very difficult. Now we face another transition, from United States to China. The United States will not easily accept such a transition. Interestingly, one of U.S. President Barack Obama's favorite book is a "forecast" a book written books. The book that the United States still is the world's most powerful nation, and I think China is. Obama praised the United States remains a strong point of view, illustrates the United States will not easily accept their decline.
In my opinion, a country's economy will be able to dominate the world from three perspectives to determine: the size of the economy, the size of the trade, and for the outside world how powerful. These three factors combine to do an index from 1870 until 2030. The index shows that to 2010, China and the U.S. leading index is basically the same; 2030, China has been far ahead of the United States, when the equivalent of the British in 1870 and the United States after World War II, the advantage of . By 2030, we are talking about is not the G20, is not the G7, G2, and only a country. Economically-driven world of time than we expected, much faster, but the scope is much broader extent is much deeper.
China's economic growth rate in the past 30 years was 10% annually over the next 20 years, I estimate that this data is between 6.5% -7%. China's economic slowdown is not out of bad things, but because of the wealth of a country's growth to a certain extent, its economic growth rate will come down.
With all countries, China's current pace of change is already down, this is because there are some interest groups do not want to reform. The key issue now is how to deal with these political forces opposed to reform. This, in this week with Premier Wen Jiabao met with, I suggest to find a method to deal with anti-reform political forces, at the same time to compensate for the loss in the reform crowd.
In addition, people are always worried about China's economy will not be a hard landing, there will be any crisis. In my view, China faces the possibility of a great crisis is not great. Even if China is really facing a crisis, it is also successful to get out from this crisis. Because the process of recovery in China, a relatively good foundation in terms of policy, monetary easing, also provide some financial support, It's like the Chinese government in 2008 to do the same. But is not a particularly bad time, that is simultaneously social and political issues.
If the United States as the last strong, want to maintain their own power, and China as an emerging strong, was about to exercise their powers, the conflict between China and the United States will produce. The United States and other countries want to prevent the rise of China, but I do not think they have the ability to prevent the rise of China. So, in economic and trade, the United States should not take hostile China's strategy. When the rise of the world has a country like China, the world should be more through multilateral way to solve the problem, rather than through a bilateral way. Strong is definitely the leader of the rules, but in a multilateral system, the rule making power to divert the traffic, the strong powers would be restricted. China is a rising, we now need to do is through the multilateral system to affect the strength of China is growing. (Arvind Subramanian, senior research fellow of the American Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Copyright works without the "Global Times" written authorization is forbidden and offenders will be held liable.
(Editor: Huangzai Juan, Li Yang Yang)
Original Chinese Text:
���ר�ң��κι�Ҷ�û�������ֹ�й�����--����--������
