Top economies in next 10 years

[no smoking]

Runaway food inflation for one, housing prices for two, fixed asset bubble for three, declining private consumption four, looming banking crisis for five...

Armand2REP, you always amuse me!
Runaway food inflation: the price is increasing, but you forget to check the detail-the consumption is increasing faster! Why, because people's income is increasing! I just get call from my mother-a retired female engineer: Her pension was just double by CCP. And this policy would be for every retired old. Another news for you is that the average worker pay has increased 15% yearly in last 3 years!

housing prices: this is a serious problem. But I would not be surprised if we consider the quick urbanisation in this country.

fixed asset bubble: building road, bridge and railway wouldn't help people's life?

Declining private consumption: execuse me! China just become the largest car market in 2009. What declining private consumption you are talking about? bike?

Looming banking crisis: that is a problem. But how much it would impact people's living standard would be a question. This is a question need to be investigated, not a fact!

 

[badguy2000]

Armand2REP, you always amuse me!
Runaway food inflation: the price is increasing, but you forget to check the detail-the consumption is increasing faster! Why, because people's income is increasing! I just get call from my mother-a retired female engineer: Her pension was just double by CCP. And this policy would be for every retired old. Another news for you is that the average worker pay has increased 15% yearly in last 3 years!

housing prices: this is a serious problem. But I would not be surprised if we consider the quick urbanisation in this country.

fixed asset bubble: building road, bridge and railway wouldn't help people's life?

Declining private consumption: execuse me! China just become the largest car market in 2009. What declining private consumption you are talking about? bike?

Looming banking crisis: that is a problem. But how much it would impact people's living standard would be a question. This is a question need to be investigated, not a fact!

until one Chinese becomes the boss of Mr. Armand, Mr. Armand will never give up the wet-dream of "CHina-to-collapse".

If my memory is not wrong, CHina has grow from global 4th largest economy to be the second largest economy, when Mr. Armand started hawking his "CHina-to-collapse" in the forum in 2008.

 

[Armand2REP]

Armand2REP, you always amuse me!
Runaway food inflation: the price is increasing, but you forget to check the detail-the consumption is increasing faster! Why, because people's income is increasing! I just get call from my mother-a retired female engineer: Her pension was just double by CCP. And this policy would be for every retired old. Another news for you is that the average worker pay has increased 15% yearly in last 3 years!

Dude... even the Commerce Ministry reported 10% food inflation and we all know that is unreported. I have been going to market every week and seen it myself. I have been keeping a personal log to record it and my basket of goods has gone up 6.7% in the last 9 weeks. I have to go to HK to shop because it is cheaper than the mainland!

People's income? Instead of spending it on consumable goods is being funneled into housing as a form of investment driving up property prices. They go unfurnished and unrented not making a dime unless they sell. My girl and I were pulled off the street two weeks ago by desperate realtors trying to sell units in a half complete building, we got free a lunch but had to bear a tour of empty units with no internal walls. I was like "you expect me to pay money for this?" They were like "YES!! it is an investment guaranteed to make you money!" When this bubble pops, anyone left holding these 64 million empty housing units are going to be wiped out. Half of Chinese middle class gone in a week, not to mention their parent's savings.

housing prices: this is a serious problem. But I would not be surprised if we consider the quick urbanisation in this country.

Urbanisation hasn't picked up consumer spending has it? No, in fact it has funneled money away from consumption and put it into property which caused the very crisis.

fixed asset bubble: building road, bridge and railway wouldn't help people's life?

Not when it leaves a trail of non-performing loans that are going to make the bank's insolvent. The state is going to have to bail them out and that is not going to look good on current account balances when the debt to GDP will be as high as the US.

Declining private consumption: execuse me! China just become the largest car market in 2009. What declining private consumption you are talking about? bike?

Seriously mange... we already had this conversation. Consumable goods are those which last less than three years... that is NOT a car.

Looming banking crisis: that is a problem. But how much it would impact people's living standard would be a question. This is a question need to be investigated, not a fact!

China can handle the banking crisis, they have enough FOREX to cover it. Problem is when CCP dumps FOREX, they will inflate the RMB as it is harder to come by with hot money flows buying it up. The large FOREX is used to peg RMB to the USD, when that balance is lost, domestic hyperinflation will take over, exporters will be out of business, employers not able to get enough to pay salaries, and domestic inflation through the roof. You might be able to buy imports cheaper, but China is mostly a domestic economy. PBOC will have to print more money to balance it and when foreign speculators are done destroying China, they will sell and leave the RMB a wrecked currency. We have seen RMB increased just 4% over the last year and see how fast inflation is working.

i don't think dumping FOREX is an option they can stomach.

 

[mattster]

Why is everyone getting such a Hard-on over China, India and Brazil's raw GDP numbers. Raw GDP numbers that do not take the population of the country into account are meaningless to the common man on the street.

The people who should be getting a hard-on are those that can export into these countries....but the struggling middle-class or lower middle class or peasants in these countries about 400 million each - they are going to be hearing about how rich the country is while they live in a shitty apartment where they can barely afford 2 meals a day. Even if their wages go up 50% in the next 10 years, inflation will wipe it out and their lives will be the same.

Badguy......The raw GDP number is by and large not going to affect the poorest 1/3 of your country.
But the Rich Chinese are going to get a lot richer and there will be a huge income gap in China.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

These long term financial forecasts don't amount to a hill of beans without looking at cycles. Mexico... REALLY?!? In ten years it is going to be the next failed state. China.. the next Japan. Brazil... the next Russia. India... the next China... US the next Europe. It is all cyclical.

Hahahah, This is the most hilarious sack of turd that you have come up with so far! Offcourse its all Cyclical like everything in the Universe but at the rate of your prediction China would slow down to Japans rate only in 2050 after it has become an developed nation. I suppose your pissed at the fact that France did not even get a mention in this article. I guess you would be thinking France would emerge as the sole super power of the world?

 

[Armand2REP]

^^

You must be enthralled with France. You bring it up even when it is not in discussion.

 

[Blackwater]

^^

You must be enthralled with France. You bring it up even when it is not in discussion.

hero,, r u going to see paris air show????????????

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Why is everyone getting such a Hard-on over China, India and Brazil's raw GDP numbers. Raw GDP numbers that do not take the population of the country into account are meaningless to the common man on the street.

The people who should be getting a hard-on are those that can export into these countries....but the struggling middle-class or lower middle class or peasants in these countries about 400 million each - they are going to be hearing about how rich the country is while they live in a shitty apartment where they can barely afford 2 meals a day. Even if their wages go up 50% in the next 10 years, inflation will wipe it out and their lives will be the same.

Badguy......The raw GDP number is by and large not going to affect the poorest 1/3 of your country.
But the Rich Chinese are going to get a lot richer and there will be a huge income gap in China.

Its not us who get a massive Hard on looking at China, we all know who has the biggest Hard-on and investment in China. It was US that allowed its companies to flood out of USA and into China, while all the while talking of Democracy and putting sanctions on North Korea, Cuba etc., Its the double standards that proves US has a uncontrollable fetish for China.

 

[Armand2REP]

hero,, r u going to see paris air show????????????

No mate, it would cost too much to fly home to see something already seen 3X. There isn't anything worth seeing which I haven't seen already. Something new for me would be the Zhuhai Air Show but I missed it by a month. We will see if I am still around for next year's show. I have been to MAKS, would love to go again when they run PAK FA.

 

[Blackwater]

No mate, it would cost too much to fly home to see something already seen 3X. There isn't anything worth seeing which I haven't seen already. Something new for me would be the Zhuhai Air Show but I missed it by a month. We will see if I am still around for next year's show. I have been to MAKS, would love to go again when they run PAK FA.

How far you live from le bourget?? Iam also driving from Amsterdam, its a 5 to 6 hour drive. Yes it's true its my first time. Last i saw was farnbrough air show (U.K) 2006...

 

[mattster]

Its not us who get a massive Hard on looking at China, we all know who has the biggest Hard-on and investment in China. It was US that allowed its companies to flood out of USA and into China, while all the while talking of Democracy and putting sanctions on North Korea, Cuba etc., Its the double standards that proves US has a uncontrollable fetish for China.

For the freaking umpteenth time......let me reiterate what I have said many times before on this forum.

The US government is not the Indian Government. It is not the license Raj of India. It does not dictate to its private companies what they should do, where they should buy parts from, and where they should manufacture their products or when they should take a shit !!!!!!!!!

As long as the company is not selling critical, strategic defense or very high-tech products like supercomputers, etc - you can pretty do anything you freaking want to do to run your business profitably, even if it means you are outsourcing jobs to India or China !!

Example: Apple manufactures billions of dollars worth of Laptops, Iphones, Ipads, Monitors almost exclusively in China. It buys Chips from American, Korean, Taiwan, European companies for those products.

The reason it manufactures in China is not because Uncle Sam told Apple to do it - its because the Chinese have one of the best supply chains for large scale manufacturing and they can do it at the price and quality that Apple, Walmart and all the other guys who invest like.

If India or Malaysia or Indonesia could manufacture like China or Taiwan or Japan or Korea with the same cost and quality - then those billions of US dollars would be flowing into the Indian economy instead of China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan.
If Indian or Asean companies were making the Chips that go inside these products, then India or these Asean countries may also get some business.

You guys think that every CEO of every major manufacturing company is consulting with the US Gov before making a decision - then you have no clue how business works here in the US.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

For the freaking umpteenth time......let me reiterate what I have said many times before on this forum.

The US government is not the Indian Government. It is not the license Raj of India. It does not dictate to its private companies what they should do, where they should buy parts from, and where they should manufacture their products or when they should take a shit !!!!!!!!!

As long as the company is not selling critical, strategic defense or very high-tech products like supercomputers, etc - you can pretty do anything you freaking want to do to run your business profitably, even if it means you are outsourcing jobs to India or China !!

Example: Apple manufactures billions of dollars worth of Laptops, Iphones, Ipads, Monitors almost exclusively in China. It buys Chips from American, Korean, Taiwan, European companies for those products.

The reason it manufactures in China is not because Uncle Sam told Apple to do it - its because the Chinese have one of the best supply chains for large scale manufacturing and they can do it at the price and quality that Apple, Walmart and all the other guys who invest like.

If India or Malaysia or Indonesia could manufacture like China or Taiwan or Japan or Korea with the same cost and quality - then those billions of US dollars would be flowing into the Indian economy instead of China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan.
If Indian or Asean companies were making the Chips that go inside these products, then India or these Asean countries may also get some business.

You guys think that every CEO of every major manufacturing company is consulting with the US Gov before making a decision - then you have no clue how business works here in the US.

So why not set up plants in North Korea, Cuba or Zimbabwe?

 

[AOE]

So why not set up plants in North Korea, Cuba or Zimbabwe?

Various reasons:

1) Those regimes are hostile to foreign business and capitalism in general. In North Koreas case, it is a completely closed off Orwellian society.
2) US relations with South Korea and Japan could be damaged by approaching North Korea on economic terms. I think most sane people around the world would prefer that regime to collapse.
3) Zimbabwe has been run into the ground thanks almost entirely to Robert Mugabe.
4) Even if they weren't economically repressive dictatorships; they would not have the marketability for electronics production that China, South Korea, and Japan has at present. Investing in them* would be an expensive endeavour, as it would require a sizable amount of FDI.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Various reasons:

1) Those regimes are hostile to foreign business and capitalism in general. In North Koreas case, it is a completely closed off Orwellian society.
2) US relations with South Korea and Japan could be damaged by approaching North Korea on economic terms. I think most sane people around the world would prefer that regime to collapse.
3) Zimbabwe has been run into the ground thanks almost entirely to Robert Mugabe.
4) Even if they weren't economically repressive dictatorships; they would not have the marketability for electronics production that China, South Korea, and Japan has at present. Investing in them at present would be an expensive endeavour, as it would require a sizable amount of FDI.

1)That is not true, there where no attempts to set up business there and they are under sanction by the US gov.

2) US relation to S.K and Japan could have been damaged even when US grew closer to China, which was a bigger threat.

3) Well i could quote similar instances in China, where they have been anti-american, Hostile towards US, funded anti-US wars against US, Persecuted minorities these are far far more than what Mugabe did, yet there are sanctions on Mugabe. America is more interested in capitalism than democracy that it over looks Chinas atrocities while it backs British lead sanctions on Zimbabwe.

4) What makes North Korea less marketable than when China started reforms? China was as back ward as North Korea and what would make N.K less marketable than South Korea!!

I think this is something more than mere free market capitalism.

 

[cw2005]

you had better pray they will not,because such a increase will have to come at the expense of going-down of the living standard of most west people.

1.4 billion CHinese will surely increase their living standard dramatically,by buying much more family cars,bigger houses,more household appliance...etc. but it will cause the shortage of global raw resource and increase the cost of all raw resouce and eventualy decrease the living standard of most current develoepd economies such as France....

Of course, those raw-recourse exporting economies such as australia and Canada may have such fortune from the presperity of CHina,but others such as France will have a shitty future.

Badguy, don't forget the Chinese is the largest buying group for France and Italian fashion, wine, and other luxuries. When Chinese getting richer, so will the France as far as they have something the Chinese want. However, California and Australia are getting bigger market shares of the wine market recently. Indeed, Parda has just announce to offer IPO in Hong Kong and promise to open 12 shops a years in China. Never allow individual troll to hinder your judgement.

 

[AOE]

1)That is not true, there where no attempts to set up business there and they are under sanction by the US gov.

Yes there are sanctions, but the answer does not stop there. You need to find out why they have economic sanctions/embargos, and the reasons are varied between each example.

2) US relation to S.K and Japan could have been damaged even when US grew closer to China, which was a bigger threat.

Despite my own views on the subject, Nixon also visited the USSR to promote a relaxation of relations in the early 70s. Such highs and lows of the Cold War were common; although you do have a point. I would have preferred that China collapsed at the end of the Cold War in order to make way for democracy, but that would require living in an ideal world lol. This does not take away from the point that US-SK relations would be strained if the US approached NK today in the same way it approached China in 1972, especially since it is a country building a nuclear weapons program. I would prefer for NK to collapse, re-unify with SK, and receive economic assistance from the US, Japan, and others around the world to ease the process. I might add that I prefer direct confrontation to sanctions.

3) Well i could quote similar instances in China, where they have been anti-american, Hostile towards US, funded anti-US wars against US, Persecuted minorities these are far far more than what Mugabe did, yet there are sanctions on Mugabe. America is more interested in capitalism than democracy that it over looks Chinas atrocities while it backs British lead sanctions on Zimbabwe.

On the point of China; you are generally right that capitalism comes before democratic advancement, but in many other examples it is the opposite; including NK, Cuba, and Zimbabwe. As for China funding anti-US wars, well that has more to do with a problem with the kinds of anti-war political rhetoric that has been prevalent in US politics at least since the end of WWI. People are generally naive in nature, and are unable to see an ideological threat until it becomes overwhelmingly obvious. Just like WWII, the early phases of the Cold War, and Islamism prior to 9/11; they all share this in common.

4) What makes North Korea less marketable than when China started reforms? China was as back ward as North Korea and what would make N.K less marketable than South Korea!!

South Korea is already a considerable manufacturer of electronics, right now I am typing to you using an LCD monitor that was made there, I've never seen one in any IT shop that was made in North Korea lol. So in order for NK to produce at the level of SK, a greater cost would have to occur since the west would have to invest a sizable amount of FDI to build up their industry. Most companies will tend to go with an already established industry.

If Nixon had visited NK instead of China in 1972, that would not even make sense to an opportunist; let alone someone with a moral conscience lol. The visit itself was Nixons attempt to pry apart communist influence by taking advantage of the Sino-Soviet split.

I think this is something more than mere free market capitalism.

There is more reasons as I highlighted, and the US today is more protectionist than free market, unfortunately. Much of this discussion is subjective as it depends on your viewpoint.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Yes there are sanctions, but the answer does not stop there. You need to find out why they have economic sanctions/embargos, and the reasons are varied between each example.

The reason they have sanctions is because they where communists who tried to kill the Democratic regimes, Just like China.

Despite my own views on the subject, Nixon also visited the USSR to promote a relaxation of relations in the early 70s. Such highs and lows of the Cold War were common; although you do have a point. I would have preferred that China collapsed at the end of the Cold War in order to make way for democracy, but that would require living in an ideal world lol. This does not take away from the point that US-SK relations would be strained if the US approached NK today in the same way it approached China in 1972, especially since it is a country building a nuclear weapons program. I would prefer for NK to collapse, re-unify with SK, and receive economic assistance from the US, Japan, and others around the world to ease the process. I might add that I prefer direct confrontation to sanctions.

Well they did not care for Democratic China called Taiwan, why do they need to care for S.K?

On the point of China; you are generally right that capitalism comes before democratic advancement, but in many other examples it is the opposite; including NK, Cuba, and Zimbabwe. As for China funding anti-US wars, well that has more to do with a problem with the kinds of anti-war political rhetoric that has been prevalent in US politics at least since the end of WWI. People are generally naive in nature, and are unable to see an ideological threat until it becomes overwhelmingly obvious. Just like WWII, the early phases of the Cold War, and Islamism prior to 9/11; they all share this in common.

Dude, dont tell me you just justified for China!!!! we end up defending Nixon and China for what? I think both are crooks and China should have been under knee deep sanctions, look at them now comeing here tell us how screwed up we are and democracy is a sack of shit.

South Korea is already a considerable manufacturer of electronics, right now I am typing to you using an LCD monitor that was made there, I've never seen one in any IT shop that was made in North Korea lol. So in order for NK to produce at the level of SK, a greater cost would have to occur since the west would have to invest a sizable amount of FDI to build up their industry. Most companies will tend to go with an already established industry.

If Nixon had visited NK instead of China in 1972, that would not even make sense to an opportunist; let alone someone with a moral conscience lol. The visit itself was Nixons attempt to pry apart communist influence by taking advantage of the Sino-Soviet split.

Well i have an mouse made in Taiwan and a shoe made in China! That only shows US cares more for Capitalism than Democracy and Human rights! Its a matter of convince just like when they bombed Iraq which had nothing to do with 9/11 and was more friendly towards the US than China or Pakistan ever was. Yet one gets bombed and other gets the jobs, i think US is more concerned about money,market capitalization and oil than it is with Democracy and Human Rights. That is the tragedy of it all, that you hear them speak of Democracy but watch them work for Capital gains.

There is more reasons as I highlighted, and the US today is more protectionist than free market, unfortunately. Much of this discussion is subjective as it depends on your viewpoints.

The US is trying hard to become protectionist and it was Europe and other Nations that sued US for double standards.

 

[badguy2000]

Badguy, don't forget the Chinese is the largest buying group for France and Italian fashion, wine, and other luxuries. When Chinese getting richer, so will the France as far as they have something the Chinese want. However, California and Australia are getting bigger market shares of the wine market recently. Indeed, Parda has just announce to offer IPO in Hong Kong and promise to open 12 shops a years in China. Never allow individual troll to hinder your judgement.

another possible case might be that french/Italian brand fashion would be asskicked and replaced with CHina-made brand ......Just as Motorloa and Erission are being asskicked by Huawei

 

[niharjhatn]

The US is trying hard to become protectionist and it was Europe and other Nations that sued US for double standards.

Remember the Monroe Doctrine!!

 

[Armand2REP]

How far you live from le bourget?? Iam also driving from Amsterdam, its a 5 to 6 hour drive. Yes it's true its my first time. Last i saw was farnbrough air show (U.K) 2006...

I am in Guangzhou which is a 14 hour flight back to Charles de Gaulle. I own a rental property in Corsica which is a 5hr journey by ferry to Marseille and TGV to Paris. I enjoyed taking that trip. Sitting in economy airlines for 28hrs is not my idea of fun.