To check pollution, Delhi govt announces curbs on plying of pvt vehicles

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Sakal Gharelu Ustad, Dec 4, 2015.

  1. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Those are isolated incidents. Not every girl in every bus gets groped. Some do, yes. For that just install CCTV cameras in buses and trains. No need to monitor 24/7. Just use the evidence and nail the bastards.
     
  2. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Electrification would be the final solution and eventually every single car in every single country would be running on electricity. But the government cannot directly maufacture electric cars or make the consumers buy electric cars due to their limitations in todays technology (except tesla which are expensive and not available in India). The only direct option is improving and modernising public transport.
     
  3. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    As per my thinking, increasing parking costs will only increase the number of auto rickshaws and taxis. Won't solve the problem. Removing of public transport and 10 years car age limit are good options. Singapore already uses the 10 year law.
     
  4. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    India is crowded place, there are electric cars which will give mileage. This is the ultimate solution for pollution problems.

    To improve the public transport we need massive infrastructure like under ground metros, separate lanes for metros, 8 lane roads etc...etc...,

    Metro cities already have thousands of buses but we do not have good roads. They can increase the number of buses for sure if infrastructure is improved. Even metro trains need multi rail lines in single direction.

    Check this infra in china
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2015
  5. Kshatriya87

    Kshatriya87 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I understand. But for a working professional like me in Mumbai, we do not think as much about pollution rather than traffic. I would personally like to do away with cars completely until the traffic problem is solved. Hence, I would prefer quality public transport anytime.

    If that does not happen and we get good options of electric cars, I wouldn't hesitate one bit to buy it. But the question and the problem remains. Where are those cars which would allow me sufficient pick up, speed and range? Is anyone planning to manufacture such cars in the near future? If not private companies, will the government do it? Nope. These facts compel me to go with building and modernizing an extensive network of public transport.
     
  6. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Public transport works well if India has good infrastructure to deal with lakhs of people who want to got to office in time.

    First we need to improve the infrastructure, use electric buses, metros etc.., gradually move to wards electric cars as the technology improves.

    Improve the rural areas so that the migration to the cities will become less, so we need to have good network of roads, rail and air ports in every part of the country as well as good connectivity.

    In this digital age, the services can be done from any where from every corner of the country, there is no need to migrate towards cities once the infrastructure improves in rural areas. India needs to improve the skill sets of the population.

    Then Manufacturing corridors has to be planned close to sea or good rail and road connectivity and away from cities.

    Then we need to plan tier 1, tier 2 and tier 3 hubs which will make the country develop evenly and every area will benefit from economic growth.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2015
    Kshatriya87 likes this.
  7. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    I was about to say that.

    Kejriwal has yet again proved he is good for nothing.

    Having said that, he will survive this ridicule as well because he has good propaganda machinery backed by crook channels.
     
    Srinivas_K likes this.
  8. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    Delhi has by far the best infrastructure in the world. It is almost like American cities with 6 lane highways right in the centre of city. The problem lies with non-compliance with road discipline, which no one wants to talk about. If you tell me Bangalore and Mumbai have bad infrastructure, I would agree but not Delhi.

    The ring roads are almost signal free in Delhi but since hardly anyone has patience small bottlenecks convert into big jams. Delhi can do much better by just enforcing lane discipline. But it would not generate as much claps from jholachaps as this stupid decision.

    Delhi is big and its metro super slow, which results in crowdedness everywhere. It needs faster metro lines to connect far away areas. But that would make public transport expensive, which no one wants. Delhi should just go for dedicate bus lanes, not like BRT, as it is cheapest option to implement in the short run. A faster public transport will automatically move people away from private vehicles.
     
  9. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    How myopic are Delhi babus! They thought airport metro can be completely sustained just by airport traffic. How stupid and wastage of resources!! This line serves most uninteresting locations except one station in Dwarka.

    Ideally this should have been the main-line for people going from in/around Dwarka to CP and then Noida/Ghaziabad with just 4-5 stops at max. Right now almost no one uses it from Dwarka because it is 4 times expensive than regular metro and does not even go to CP but leaves in Shivaji Stadium with a long way to Rajiv Chowk. This fast line could have eased so much traffic on Dwarka-CP-Noida line if it was planned well and had taken around 30-35 min.
     
  10. asingh10

    asingh10 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Arey yaahi toh scam hai jee :)
     
  11. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    http://yugaparivartan.com/2016/05/03/why-odd-even-policy-will-fail-in-delhi/

    Indian population has been brought up on such a steady diet of government intervention and socialism that feel-good but ineffective policies are not only passed unopposed but actually appreciated widely. Odd-even car rationing system is one such law which is hailed blindly not only by Aaptards but also by some serious economists!

    Here is another long but inconclusive study by IIT.

    But there are serious issues with any policy evaluation study. The biggest problem usually faced under such evaluation is to make sure that apples are compared with apples and not with oranges. What it means in the case of pollution study is that you need to find a comparative group similar to Delhi 1-15 January 2016 to benchmark performance of odd-even rule? You cannot use the data from last year i.e. 2015 because it was another year and had different weather conditions so it won’t work. The above mentioned Harvard-Chicago study carefully addresses this problem by comparing Delhi’s pollution with Faridabad because the two are geographically pretty close and one implemented odd-even rule but the other did not. The IIT study although more comprehensive does not do well from an empirical perspective.

    But guess what- while this study does well in the text book sense of evaluating a policy, it comes really short on economics principles. Why? Because it does not take into account the behavioural changes such a policy implementation will induce.

    Many if not most economic policies can lead to behavioural change and this is what makes any policy evaluation difficult. And what is the behavioural change in this case? It would be captured by pollution reducing measures like car pooling, people using more public transport etc.- the good things that a policy maker would expect. But on the other hand it would also lead to other behavioural changes like buying extra car, switching to two wheelers, etc which would effectively reduce the impact of this policy i.e. increase pollution again. It is the latter which socialism infected brains do not get!!

    Another important point to notice here is that while the good behavioural changes will happen immediately in the short run because people need some time to adapt to policy change. Also, the uncertainty about the implementation of rule made sure people did not buy new cars immediately for the 15 day period because they were not sure that government will implement this policy permanently. But once government commits to implement this policy permanently, people will show bad behavioural changes(bad according to policy maker) and buy new cars or find other ways to overcome the system in the long run.

    Given the fact that behavioural changes will take some time to be adopted, it is foolhardy to even resort to any such policy evaluation studies based on short term. If you read the above studies before going through the whole article- sorry because you wasted your time!!

    So given that these short term evaluation reports can be trashed into junk, the question still remains should Delhi go forward with the policy or not. Thankfully, the world is full of AAP style Tuglaq governments, which gives us a sneak peak into the results of any such policy. New York city grappled with the same problem in 2007 and evaluated car rationing systems around the world and its impact on pollution levels. Similar systems had been tried and tested in Mexico City, Bogota, Sao Paolo etc and this case study is based on these experiments. Since we know that only long term pollution reduction should matter for evaluation, lets directly jump to the summary of this case study.

    [​IMG]

    So, how did the Mexican experiment fair in the end? Well, people were smarter than the government thought and they just bought old vehicles from outside Mexico city, which effectively increased the pollution. In the Indian context, you should expect both purchase of old vehicles and two-wheelers to again increase the pollution levels after a temporary reduction.

    What makes this whole experiment even more stupid is that 4-wheelers contribute very little to the overall pollution levels in Delhi. Here is the break-up of particulate matter(PM) emissions from IIT study:

    [​IMG]

    Out of the transport sector, 4-wheelers contribute 16% to PM 2.5 emissions i.e. 3.6% of total emissions. Even if we say that odd-even policy would lead to 20% drop(which is actually huge and should be taken with a bag of salt) in PM emissions from cars, it would lead to 0.72% of total emission reduction in the long run.

    So now comes the biggest question that all Delhites need to ask themselves, it is worth buying a new car for 0.7% reduction in PM emissions? Is it worth the total cost that poor middle class families have to pay for buying extra cars, if this policy will only lead to 0.7% reduction in emissions? The bedrock of any policy evaluation exercise is what are the total benefit vs the total losses. All the above mentioned studies, short or long term, look at decrease in pollution levels as the only outcome. But there is welfare loss due to penalties like being forced to use public transport system or buying a new car. It is important to also calculate these efficiency losses for complete welfare evaluation of any policy. Reduction in pollution level should be compared against inconvenience and efficiency loss due to any such policy.

    But as the saying goes: The road to hell is paved with good intentions. So good intentions do much more harm in the end than one expects. Once accounting for all the pain people have to go through to implement odd-even policy, it seems like one more good intention

    will go wrong. Sadly, in the last 70 years India has seen enough of these good intentions go haywire. So why not just bear one more!!
     
  12. sasum

    sasum Atheist but not Communists. Senior Member

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    Rising pollution is not Kejriwal's concern. Auto-drivers' lobby is behind this odd-even scheme. You see the swarm of Autos now-a-days. Most are brand new. Now make 2+2 :wink:
     
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  13. angeldude13

    angeldude13 Lestat De Lioncourt Senior Member

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    Odd-Even is a failed scheme. No matter what people say it's a failed scheme.
     

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