The Rise of China : Strategic Implications.

Discussion in 'China' started by pyromaniac, Mar 1, 2009.

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What does china fear most militarily and socially as a threat to its security and stability?

  1. Japan turning assertive

    7.6%
  2. An indian global power

    33.0%
  3. The United States in its backyard.

    55.8%
  4. the russian military machine ramping up

    3.6%
  1. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    In a major blow to Chinese foreign policy in Africa, their strongman Omar Bashir has been ousted from Sudan.

     
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  2. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Do grow a brain plzzzzz. What a blow??

    Was collapse of Mubarak rule an end of US control over the Suez Canal? or killing of Khashogi an adieu to US -Saudi bhai bhai?? Or will Macron lose a sleep over fall of Tripoli?

    Most of oil reserve is in South Sudan that's broken away.

    Write something of quality!
     
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  3. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    Well lets see, Sudan is by far the largest client state of China in Africa. All of their Post Cold War arms transfers are Chinese origin. They are the largest recipient of Chinese loans in Africa and practically sold Port Sudan to China which is the major hub of Chinese shipping activity in the region. If the leadership that replaces Bashir is tired of making back breaking payments on those loans China could be out of luck being repaid.

    How will Macron lose sleep over the fall of Tripoli when he is the one who orchestrated it?

    France blocks EU call to stop Haftar's offensive in Libya

    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - France on Wednesday blocked a European Union statement calling on Khalifa Haftar to halt his eastern forces’ offensive in Libya, diplomatic sources said, in the latest example of how the bloc’s internal divisions have undercut its global sway.

    The draft statement, seen by Reuters, would have said that the military attack launched by Haftar on Tripoli was “endangering the civilian population, disrupting the political process and risks further escalation with serious consequences for Libya and the wider region, including the terrorist threat.”

    Thousands of residents fled on Wednesday as Haftar’s forces - called the Libyan National Army (LNA) - and troops loyal to the Tripoli government battled on the outskirts of Libya’s capital.

    France and Italy disagree on how to handle the latest escalation in the troubled north African country.

    France, which has oil assets in eastern Libya, has provided military assistance in past years to Haftar in his eastern stronghold, Libyan and French officials say..


    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-libya-security-eu/france-blocks-eu-call-to-stop-haftars-offensive-in-libya-idUKKCN1RM2WN
     
  4. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Now u're talking about IF... IF ... tired of... blah blah. Is it always so easy for u to scribble a headline out of thin air?

    In your last post, u blabberd fall of Bashir dealing a blow to China. Now u're faltering IF...IF... another hypothesis without sound rationale.

    If Macron replaces Hollande... If Hollende kicks out Sarkozy... So what? Does it make any difference to France's Libya policy?

    So long as they need a buyer for their oil, or Chinese loans are as sweet, or Chinese pumps are necessary for getting water out of sands, business as usual whoever the sitting general is in Khatoum.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  5. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    The protests in Sudan are a continuation of the Arab Spring. When Qaddafi was ousted from Libya. China lost all of its investments and had to write off tens of billions. There is no reason to think a new government would want to be responsible for the mistakes of the one they replaced. It is not an orderly transition of power like we have in France, it is a completely new government system that doesn't take responsibility for its past dictators.

    It would take Sudan 10 years of oil shipments to pay off what it owes to China. I doubt the new government wants to wait that long for revenue. It is much easier to kick you out and say thanks for the free money, bye!
     
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  6. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Every biz has its risks. To take a chance means to take underlying risks as well.

    One win is enough to cover many losses.

    The oil that Chinese pumped up from former one-Sudan in past years has outstripped any POTENTIAL future loss for sure.

    That scenario of default on payments by the new regime is no more than your speculation.

    French outcry of Chinese neo-colonialism in Africa is a living evidence of Chinese successes there. France et al wouldn't have felt heartburnt if Chinese keep on failing in Africa.
     
  7. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    It is actually poor financial management to not mitigate your risks. Cost analysis is a foreign concept to the Chinese who will dump tens of billions into unstable regimes who are not long for this world when every other financial group knows it and refuses to give them money.

    Not the way China does it, that being all in and losing everything investing in unpopular dictators.

    You had already paid for all past oil shipments, they are now ten years behind in payment.

    Once South Sudan separated from Khartoum it was a forgone conclusion they couldn't pay up. That hasn't changed. His removal is just a symptom of their inability to pay their bills.

    I don't see any such outcry from France. Africa is a chess-board where France is the King Maker and China is the pawn losing all of their money.
     
  8. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    @Armand2REP unstable regimes? haha do name an African regime that is STABLE. Unpopular dictators? Spare us your craps ~ ironically when was the last time Sarkozy or.... hugged Gaddafi and Al Assad before break-up?

    A few posts back, u boasted of France having oil assets in eastern Libya. How could a Libya mired in tribal wars be considered stable? Or a warlord like Haftar a popular dictator?? Consequently French assets are also exposed to risks and total loss !

    Whatever u spit is all your fancy shy of "cost analysis". No hard data at all in support of your alleged poor financials.

    Your arguments don't add up, with zero consistency. King maker? LoL in a few years France as a bad chess player will be buried in tons of refugees and be rebranded as Frankistan. Good luck!
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  9. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    The difference between our position and yours... we don't loan out tens of billions of dollars that will take 15 years to pay back in oil shipments sucking the future revenues the government needs to survive to leaders that build ghost cities and trains to nowhere. TOTAL does what all responsible energy companies do, they submit proposals for government bids to develop oil fields and the L1 is declared the winner who mitigate their risks by taking other investors. If CNPC actually bid like normal oil companies, they wouldn't win anything because their extraction technologies are far more obsolete and costly than TOTAL. China looks at it as securing strategic reserves as opposed to actually caring about making a profit. if it doesn't turn a profit it isn't sustainable. That is something your people have yet to learn.

    Oh really?



    You build loss making projects like this all over Africa and expect people making $2 a day to afford to use it. You export your build it and they will come model to Africa and like all things Chinese... a bunch of ghosts.

    Which comes to the last portion of the French model after sound investment, we have the military power to recover assets from dictators. When you lose, it is just gone.
     

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