The Rise of China : Strategic Implications.

Discussion in 'China' started by pyromaniac, Mar 1, 2009.

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What does china fear most militarily and socially as a threat to its security and stability?

  1. Japan turning assertive

    7.6%
  2. An indian global power

    33.0%
  3. The United States in its backyard.

    55.8%
  4. the russian military machine ramping up

    3.6%
  1. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    I agree. A couple things come to mind, in no particular order:

    1. The only Indian leader who can commit to such a deal without being viewed as selling out the country would be Narendra Modi.
    2. Whether he could actually deliver the votes in what is almost certain hostility from the UPA is an open question.
    3. India and China have other strategic issues to resolve alongside such an FTA. Would an FTA be conducted in isolation from such issues or in conjunction with them?
    3a. The first strategic issue is Pakistan. A Sino-Indian FTA would be viewed in Islamabad as an unfriendly act, one that economically isolates it. Do China and India cut Pakistan into the FTA as well, or, if not, how do China and India assuage Pakistan's concerns?
    3b. Would an FTA include a guarantee by India to protect China's shipping lanes in the IOR? This would obviate China's need for a string of pearls.
    4. The United States would do everything in its power to forestall such a move, possibly by throwing a clause in the TPP that forces India to choose between the US-Japan markets and the Chinese one.
    5. China and India need to resolve their border issues before starting any deep FTAs; both sides should formalize the LAC as a border, and ratify treaties that limit the quantity and quality of troops they can station on the border.
    6. On a scale this large, the Tibetan Government-in-Exile and Sri Lanka become minor issues, to be resolved at a later date.
     
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  2. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    with all due respect Sir,
    this idea is as old as the Independence of modern india ...
    it goes way back to the 1950's

    Our Nehru was one of the first to propose this idea -
    along with his ideas of a non-aligned movement as the overall encompassing framework
    the china India cooperation was a subset of that grand design for peace and goodwill among all of us

    Nehru proposed it to china
    he succeeded in convincing himself and a bunch of others on the indian side
    they all agreed wholeheartedly that it was a great idea !

    china told him what they though of his ideas in september 1962

    and now you are re-proposing the idea ?
    sure they will play along with it ....for a while, even years :-
    then - !!!
     
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  3. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    I personally think that Modi, however popular in the media right now, is primarily a preferred leader of sections of the middle class, which fortunately or unfortunately does not comprise a formidable enough voting block so as to override the primary support base of the Congress/UPA which is the 800 million strong rural poor. Regardless of which party comes to power, both the Congress and BJP see betterment of relations with China as one of the top foreign policy priorities for India. The BJP can be more proactive about this under Modi though, so you may be right on that count.

    3a. Pakistan uses its relationship with both China and the US as an insurance policy to launch terrorist attacks against India. If Pakistan sees that India and China are actively engaged in negotiating an FTA, the Islamic nutjobs there, especially in the army, may finally come to realize that they cannot continue to have a policy of active hostility against India. China's role will be very important here-it will have to convince Pakistan that its future lies in economic integration with India and that it must get out if its mentality of a 1000 year war against the "infidel Hindus". Personally I am very pessimistic that Pakistan will change course. The most powerful player within Pakistan is the Army, whose vested interest lies in constant conflict with India.

    3b. I think this takes us to a larger discussion of what China and India consider to be their core interests. Here is a partial list:

    China:

    Tibet, Land connection with Xinjiang (through Aksai Chin)
    Security of shipping lanes in IOR
    East Asia as primary sphere of influence

    India:

    Kashmir/Cross-border terrorism from Pakistan
    Membership of UNSC
    South Asia as primary sphere of influence

    I think India can accommodate, or has already accommodated Chinese concerns on Tibet by acknowledging it as an integral part of China. The refuge given to the Dalai Lama is merely symbolic, due to India's civilizational ties with Tibetan Buddhism. India already restricts political activities of the Tibetan refugees. If China does not wish to acknowledge Kashmir as part of India (as seen from the stapled visa row), will it be at least willing to take a neutral stand on the issue while pushing its ally Pakistan to stop cross-border terrorism? This will be seen as a very important test in India of any Indo-Chinese strategic thaw. Note that in the case of the US too, whether it was the Kargil attack in 1999, the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 or the terrorist attacks on Mumbai in 2008, they have been either neutral or supported Indian efforts against Pakistan backed terrorism.

    If China can manage to assuage India's security concerns (Pakistan/terrorism), then this will build strategic trust between the two countries. India would not feel the need to build up offensive capabilities against the Pak/China nexus including targeting China's IOR shipping. India might also agree to take a backseat in the process of choosing the new Dalai Lama.

    Finally, both China and India will need to respect each other's spheres of influence. India will not meddle in China's disputes with its neighbours in East Asia and the South China sea, and China will likewise stop using Pakistan as a pawn to balance India and not meddle in South Asia.

    4. Neither China nor India are currently negotiating partners of the TPP. And in all honesty, an Indo-China FTA and further down the road an Asian economic community will make the TPP and other US led initiatives quite irrelevant. Once that happens, it will be the US and Europe who will stumble over each other trying to get a slice of the Asian pie, and it will be quite easy to play them off against each other like they do to the rest of the world now.

    5. Agreed. That is the #1 confidence building measure that will lead to these greater understandings down the road.

    6. Also agreed.
     
  4. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Nehru refused to concede an inch of what he considered to be "Indian territory" to the Chinese. That was the mistake that lead to 1962. His attitude was understandable, India had already lost substantial chunks of territory during partition and many analysts in the 1950's predicted that India would soon disintegrate under the weight of its own diversity and heterogeneity. China too was finally stable and unified after many decades and were in no mood to part with an inch of what they considered to be "Chinese territory". In the lead up to the war, the Chinese did offer many times to let India keep all of NEFA/AP in return for Aksai Chin which they needed to connect with Xinjiang. Nehru refused to negotiate, and this led to the war.

    You might want to read the book, "Himalayan Blunder", by Brig. J P Dalvi, who was himself taken as a PoW by the Chinese. It is very revealing and challenges the popular perception of the Chinese being the aggressor in that war.
     
  5. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    while you have written about nehru, you omitted commenting about
    the similarity of your india-china cooperation project

    you said nehru failed to "negotiate"

    recently the chinese have been asserting themselves in arunachal

    so your solution - according to what you have written, should be
    now to "negotiate" with china on arunachal .... in order to work together with them ? :taunt1:
    yeah sure .....hindi-chinni bai bhai !
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2013
  6. J20!

    J20! Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think the economic relations of East Asia are a significant precedent for an Indo-Sino economic realationship. Sino-Japanese and ROK-Japanese trade relations in particular. But for the sake of being brief, I'll stick to Japan-China trade.

    Despite the territorial disputes that re-awaked in 2010, Sino-Japanese economic relations offer a lesson in economic relations independent of geopolitical relations.

    Japan and China embarked on a "cold-politics" policy that basically shelved or put territorial disputes on the back burner to allow economic integration and mutual prosperity. Today, China is Japan's largest trading partner, providing a market for over $140 billion dolars in Japanese goods; despite the ongoing tensions (for refference, billateral trade between India and China stands at a little over $70 billion).

    Where I think a potential India-China trade agreement could improve over th Japanese-Chinese economic relationship would be continuously working towards a freeze on the undemarcated disputed border simultaneously with improving trade ties, instead of completely shelving the dispute. That alone would allay much of the border dispute tension. The recent agreement could serve as a foundation for building a lasting agreement over the entire dispute.

    So yes, I do agree with you. Economic coorperation, as two developing countries with similar goals WRT poverty alleviation, could boost both economies greatly in many industries as well as lead to incredible numbers of people( in the 100's of millions here) enjoying a better standard of living.

    If China could build an enormous trade relationship with its former imperial occupiers, much loathed by a large part of the populace(similar to the animosity many Indians have for China), I very much doubt it couldn't build a similar relationship with India as almost a majority of Chinese don't know the specifics of the 1962 war, let alone harbour any animosity towards India.

    All it would take would be the political will to push a Free Trade Agreement through. A China-ASEAN F.T.A. is already in effect despite the South China Sea issue, I don't see why an India-China F.T.A. should be impossible barring public opposition on the Indian side.
     
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  7. J20!

    J20! Senior Member Senior Member

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    List of the largest trading partners of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Please look through that page, and pay particular attention to the list of "Countries & regions which China is the largest trading partner of"; a list mind you that includes the US, Japan, both Koreas, India, Australia etc. All the countries the US would need to form a hypothetical coalition with. Even the countries not on that list have China as their number 1 or no.2 trading partner.

    Even the US of A would have a hard time organising a coalition to even blockade China, let alone invade it like they did Iraq. What you're basically advocating is collective economic suicide by the overwhelming majority of the industrialized world.

    Being the second largest economy isn't just a title.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2013
  8. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    China’s Push Into ‘America’s Backyard’

    This below point is important
     
  9. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    Where public opinion of U.S. > China (green). Where public opinion of China > U.S. (red). According to Pew.

    [​IMG]

    Whats this??? Turkey, a nato ally likes china more than usa??:confused::shocked:

    Alos surprised to see Argentina, netherlands(??) on the china camp :shocked: :shocked:
     
  10. sunny_10

    sunny_10 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Turkey not surprised, why not other Gulf nations are in red, the only surprise for me, my own experience....

    and Argentina, yes its a surprise...... they won't have pictures of OBL in small small shops like how we see in Pakistan, including in whole gulf region? :ranger:
     
  11. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    GCC royals heavliy depend on west for survival. But why weren't you surprised about turkey?? Share your thoughts/experinces.
     
  12. sunny_10

    sunny_10 Tihar Jail Banned

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    look, while living in western nations, you live with an idea that by saying few wrong about US, you may be recognized as good among the Muslims. and the same is true while talking with british/aussie etc, say few wrong about Muslims and become good :ranger:

    a slave is a slave, whether Saudi, Turkey or any other country of that area, and rest of that region always have war threats, whether Syria, Iran or someone else.....

    just have a look on the common environment, all the migrants of this region try hard to come to western nations and within just 6-7 months, they all start visiting Mosques, discussing different wars by US :ranger:

    few news like as below itself tell us the story :thumb:


    and in Australia we also get the news like as below :rofl:



    =>
     
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  13. sunny_10

    sunny_10 Tihar Jail Banned

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    .
    the most funny thing i saw in aboriginals there is the underlined statement. they generally think of themselves 'king' of Australia, and hence most fo them just drink on Welfare money and sit on the side of road :rofl:

     
  14. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    [tweet]436094749666062336[/tweet]
     
  15. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    Five Ways China Spies
     
  16. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    Saudi Arabia, China's 'Good Friend'
     
  17. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is because China and Taiwan have spent 5 decades battling each other for diplomatic recognition, so both "versions of China" have learned how to do most diplomatic business with 3rd parties without formal diplomatic relations.
     
  18. J20!

    J20! Senior Member Senior Member

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    Civilian maritime security agencies such as the Fisheries Law Enforcement Command, Maritime Surveillance and Coast guard vessels patrol and exercise China's sovereignty in territorial (including disputed) waters, not the PLAN, which does not count as "defense power". Many countries around the world, including Japan use a similar policy.

    In numerous clashes in around the "Spratly Islands" and "Scarborough Shoal", China has employed civilian maritime authority vessels and personnel, even when Vietnam and the Philippines were deploying their frontline naval vessels ( though in the Philippines case, its flagship is a retired USG cutter).

    I agree. The clashes in the ECS around the Diaoyutai's have often and mostly involved coast guard and maritime surveillance vessels, not the warships of the respective Japanese and hinese Navies, though some confrontations have occurred.

    That's a stark misrepresentation of history. the PRC and the RoC before it have always laid claim to the Diaoyutai's(which China administered before the Sino-Japanese war in which Japan forcefully seized them. even now, the RoC government in Taiwan has the exact same territorial claims that the PRC does. A fact often overlooked by geopolitics pundits when they're claiming that China is an "expansionist" "hegemon" "strategically" claiming territory.

    Another fact often overlooked is that the US unilaterally bestowed administration of the Diaoyutai's on Japan at the San Francisco Treaty which the PRC and the Soviet Union denounced and where excluded from despite the fact that conquered territory (including Chinese territory like Taiwan - called Formosa at the time - and the Diaoyutais) liberated from Imperial japan where being parceled out to its neighbors and some annexed by the US itself. A move China has often and loudly proclaimed to be an "unequal treaty". This narrative that China only started contesting Japanese administration of the Diaoyutais after "oil" was discovered under the seabed there in the 1970's is pure misrepresentation of historical realities. (Please refer to the Wikipedia link you posted).

    Treaty of San Francisco - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Text of Gromyko's Statement on the Peace Treaty - Contrast With Other Treaties Cites Expansion After 1937 See Japan as a Military Base Soviet Delegate Says 'Separate Peace' May Embroil Far East in War, With Japan as Base U. S. Delegates Assailed Call

    One last fact I'd like to bring your attention to is the SCS dispute over the Spratly's, which is always portrayed in mainstream media as China "bullying its weak ASEAN neighbors despite all four claimants having overlapping claims. China(the RoC and the PRC) and Vietnam claim all of the Islands, whilst the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei have claims to parts of the Island group. Vietnam claims all of the Islands despite less than 1% of the islands being in Vietnams EEZ, yet Vietnam( and to a degree Taiwan) is rarely if ever accused of violating UNCLOS or "international law" as China is by the "international community" ie the US and its alliance system (Australia, Japan, the Philippines etc).

    Look through this congressional report for some facts( though most parts are a self-serving narrative of events on the part of the US) on the territorial disputes involving China in the SCS and ECS.

    http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42784.pdf
     
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  19. prohumanity

    prohumanity Senior Member Senior Member

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    The strategic implication of China's rise will be.........creation of a multi-polar World order...sooner than you think. Birth of a democratic, multi-polar World without hegemony of one nation or group.
     
  20. HMS Astute

    HMS Astute Regular Member

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    NATO submit will be held next month in UK and i think that 2 foremost subjects would be instated, including the catastrophes occurring in Ukraine and Iraq/Syria. I had heard that all the NATO members will be reassured to increase the defence budget to 2% of GDP. I reckon the US will slowly withdraw it's hard power, troops and influence from the middle east region and this role will be handed over to Europe, which will allow the US to shift more of it's power to the east and focus on China predominantly. This will be a positive news to those hoping for US protection and deployment in south east Asia.
     
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