Since we already have a Sino-Indian War of 2020 thread going in this forum, I thought it might be good to posit what would happen in a full-scale Indo-Pakistani conflict. Wrote this in the form of a faux wiki article. Enjoy.
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The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019 - Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia
The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019, also known as the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, was the culmination of a series of wars and skirmishes between the two nations since their mutual independence in 1947. Marked by the only use of nuclear weapons in warfare outside of World War II, an outbreak of the Green Death and widespread crop failure, as well as 'an unprecedented level of religious violence', it resulted in 90 to 120 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians. These deaths make the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War by far the deadliest conflict in human history.
It began in January 2019, after the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba launched a chemical attack on Mumbai, which triggered an Indian 'punitive assault' on Pakistan. Pakistani field commanders responded with tactical nuclear weapons, which India and Pakistan escalated to mutual strategic nuclear strikes. Within hours of the initial nuclear exchange, national leaders in both countries were dead, and central political authority collapsed. The conflict then dissolved into chaotic, large-scale hostilities between sectarian groups that caused the permanent members of the UN Security Council to approve intervention by the newly-created Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability in March 2019.
The Emergency Commission suffered casualties at the hands of the then-emerging Jai Hind movement in the Kolkata Riots and Hyderabad Riots of April-May 2019, which caused the UN Security Council to pull peacekeepers from and limit food aid to most of South Asia until the situation had stabilized. Between May 2019 and September 2019, there were over 100,000 'mass incidents' of religious violence, largely triggered by armed clashes over dwindling food stocks. In response to the perceived anti-Muslim nature of the unrest, prominent Saudi and Egyptian clerics issued fatwas announcing jihad across the Indian subcontinent, and against the Jai Hind movement in particular. The Jai Hind movement responded with explicit declarations targeting 'terrorists', which international observers noted were aimed at those of Muslim belief. These factors contributed to ongoing religious unrest across India, which analysts estimate caused an additional 3-5 million casualties.
In November 2019, the Emergency Commission and the Jai Hind movement negotiated terms for security and food deliveries across the subcontinent, which marked de facto recognition of the movement as the political successor to the Government of India. Most of Pakistan and parts of Northwestern India remain under the control of the Emergency Commission.
In addition to the massive loss of life, the war also resulted in regional economic devastation; the GDP of India fell by nearly 45% from its 2019 peak; the GDP of Pakistan fell by 80%. The war is widely viewed as the catalyst for the Copenhagen Arms Reduction Treaty between Russia and NATO, and the Northeast Asia Security Summit between the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea.
The Indo-Pakistani War of 2019
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Clockwise from top left: Lashkar-e-Taiba militants detonating nerve gas canisters in DY Patil Stadium, Indian PM Narendra Modi announcing Operation Dharma, Indian Su-30MKI fighter aircraft bombing Rawalpindi, The Pakistani frigate Zulfiquar sinking in the Arabian Sea, Indian and Pakistani mechanized infantry fighting in the outskirts of Lahore, LandSat time-lapse of all 297 nuclear detonations across South Asia, a young child scavenging for food in the ruins of Delhi
Date
12 January 2019 – 26 March 2019 (2 months, 14 days)
Location
South Asia
Result
Stalemate (disputed: Indian remnants claim they achieved victory)
Collapse and dissolution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Collapse of the Government of India
Creation of the Emergency Commission for South Asian Peace and Stability
Emergence of the Jai Hind paramilitary group
Emergence of the All-India Muslim Self-Defense League (also known as Al-Qaeda in South Asia)
UN occupation of Pakistan and Northwestern India
Belligerents
Republic of India
Jai Hind paramilitary group
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
All-India Muslim Self-Defense League
Casualties
Republic of India
Military:
220,000 dead
170,000 missing
420,000 wounded
Civilian:
50-65,000,000 dead
Islamic Republic of Pakistan
Military:
150,000 dead
350,000 missing
300,000 wounded
Civilian:
40-55,000,000 dead
Of course, I have the utmost respect for your insightful analyses into the Chinese psyche.
