The Indian Navy Has a Big Problem: The Subsurface Dilemma

sgarg

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@Ray, you misunderstand me. I never said anything about you. The soldiers who stand guard in Kashmir are very brave soldiers. I am sure you are too.

Pakistan is practically disintegrating. Pakistan is increasingly looking like USSR 2-3 years before it died. It is fighting "militants" that it nurtured for last 40 years as saviors against India. Its people are increasingly mired in poverty. Its currency is failing.

The only thing Pakistan has is the atomic bomb. We know USSR failed despite having the atomic bomb. An atom bomb is no guarantee of survival of the State.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, maybe you don't know but F7PG fighter was a gift from China. The current JF-17 are also gifts from China as Pakistan does not have the money to buy these fighters.
 
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sgarg

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Anyway sorry for this long detour. Back to the submarine.

The Chinese submarines will appear in Indian ocean. India cannot stop them. Sri Lanka is getting big aid from China. It has to play host. What else can it do?
India's economy has not reached a stage where it can play Santa like China.
 

blueblood

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Russia and South Korea will not go against China.
Japan and Vietnam can, but will they go against China "in concert" with India.
They don't have to. They are powerful nations with very strong military which alone will be a factor for China to not leave it's border unmanned.

India does not have any defence treaty with either Japan or Vietnam.
Same reason as above.

China has great influence in Myanmar through its military. China can cause a coup again in days.
India needs to be realistic about Myanmar.
Except Pakistan, not a single nation will ever mobilize it's forces against India. They have too much to lose and too little to gain.

The geography works both ways. If it makes India secure from China, it also makes China secure from India. India's ability to go deep in Tibet is suspect.
No it doesn't. Indian airbases are located at very opportune places. PLAAF bases are either very high ( which significantly reduces the capability of both man and machine, read "hot and high" conditions and high altitude sickness i.e. HAPO, HACE and HAFE etc) or very far away.

Secondly, "Sons of soil" program of IA places special emphasis on recruiting local populace adept for operations at higher altitude. A significant number of IA troops are recruited from higher altitudes, far higher than China can put in the battlefield.

For eg. almost every single Ladakhi household provided a male porter during the Kargil War. Ladakh Scouts distinguished themselves for their absolutely superb operations.

Money can buy many things but it cannot buy die hard patriots and well trained soldiers who are far more adept at high altitude operations than any plain's soldier will ever be.

India's economic centers are close to Tibet while China's are far from India. This plays in the hands of China.
If 1962, 1965 and 1971 could be considered a template, civilian populations centres have consistently been kept out of the harm's way as there were military objectives which demanded more attention. Armies are there to achieve military objectives, targeting civilians are not high on their list. @ Ray, please correct me if I am wrong.

PLA conducted itself well even during the times of the rabid Mao, I have sincere doubts that such befoolery will take place in the 21st century.

If I am not wrong Lancaster's square law is still a valid theory @Ray, sorry to bother you sir. None of the Chinese neighbours need to mobilize their military in favour of India. There mere existence is more than enough for the Chinese to not let itself completely mobilize against India.

PLA is not that scary once you learn that India is not the only hostile neighbour China has.
 
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sgarg

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@blueblood, you have listed some good points. Yes I know India is no pushover. At the same time India does not want to engage in a needless war.

China can definitely attack Indian cities. There is no guarantee they won't.

Only significant country that can realistically support India in wartime is Japan. It is NOT Vietnam.

However Japan is NOT aligned with India militarily. It may have economic interests in India but it has economic interests in China too.
 
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sgarg

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China has grown too powerful due to America's policies. China was used to destroy Soviet Union. It was given free access to Western markets. This access has given China unprecedented power.

The moment of China has arrived, whether we like it or not.

India will have to think of ways to cooperate with China. I know it is difficult at many levels but it is probably the best way to go.

A powerful China and a powerful India will practically remove the need of Western influence in Asia. Think of it this way.

China has largely coexisted with Indian civilization for five millenniums. Why change the situation now.
 
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Peter

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China has grown too powerful due to America's policies. China was used to destroy Soviet Union. It was given free access to Western markets. This access has given China unprecedented power.

The moment of China has arrived, whether we like it or not.

India will have to think of ways to cooperate with China. I know it is difficult at many levels but it is probably the best way to go.

A powerful China and a powerful India will practically remove the need of Western influence in Asia. Think of it this way.

China has largely coexisted with Indian civilization for five millenniums. Why change the situation now.
@sgarg sir

Who has told you that the modern Chinese govt wants a peaceful relationship with India? Do you even know who supports Maoists in the jungles of Orissa,WB and Jharkhand. ? Have you ever known about the Chinese aid in the development of Paki nuclear weapons. Also you probably do not know that China is one of the nations that does not want India to have a permanent seat in the UNSC. Here a few links you may go through.

Maoists building weapons factories in India with help from China : North, News - India Today
Procurement: China And Pakistan Supply Indian Maoists
Cops nail China link with Naxals - The Times of India

In the first major evidence of Maoist link with China, the special cell of Delhi Police has learnt that a top guerrilla is operating an arms syndicate from there. Interrogation of two PLA leaders arrested last week revealed that the chief of the political wing of the People's Liberation Army - Irengbam Chaoren - is hiding in China.

Chinese Nuclear Weapons | Cold War: A Brief History | History of the Atomic Age | atomicarchive.com

There is considerable uncertainly in published estimates of the size of the Chinese nuclear-weapons stockpile. Although these weapons are not a direct threat to the United States, they still pose a major threat to world security. China is also suspected in aiding the Pakistani nuclear program.
http://www.businessinsider.in/India...l-Is-In-Chinas-Court/articleshow/43511693.cms

But why China is vehemently opposed to India's permanent entry in the august body? Well, for one, it doesn't want to lose its coveted status as the only Asian country in UNSC permanently. Second, China opposes Japan's bid for permanent UNSC membership while India supports Japan and China is not likely to support India as long as India supports Japan. India's is unlikely to withdraw support for Japan as being part of the G4 nations—Brazil and Germany besides India and Japan—it is committed to support each other's bids for permanent seats in UNSC.
Also China still wants Arunachal Pradesh.

You are sounding like our great Panditji Nehru who would have loved to murder true patriots like Netaji and sell the nation to foreign dogs. We have had enough of Hindi-chini Bhai bhai.
 
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CCP

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@sgarg sir

Do you even know who supports Maoists in the jungles of Orissa,WB and Jharkhand. ?
Well, your home affair minister already gaved clear answer for that : "NO". @p2prada

I think you should trust him rather than any other sources.
 
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Kharavela

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The point is that India cannot hunker down in a status quoism posture.

It has to exert herself to ensure that there is adequate mechanisms in place around the region to ensure that India cannot be tossed up and buffeted at the whims and fancies of whoever wishes to, as it has been happening so far.

And the Modi Govt is doing just that i.e. ensuring India's place in the sun.

We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

वीर भोग्या वसुंधरा
Sir, I'm really thankful to you & all senior members of DFI for the knowledge I get in this forum.

On this particular topic of subsurface strategy, I was wondering why IN is not considering UUVs in large numbers for ISR activities ?

Just like UCAV, we may go for development of an armed version of UUV. Israel is leader in such technologies & we may have JV with them for mass production & deployment.

I think armed UUVs will deter any adversary from adventures in IOR.
 

Ray

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UAVs and variants have their share of importance.

However, one wonders what will be its efficacy in an environment where its existence is combated.

Currently, the success we see of UAV and variants is in an environment where it is one sided.

The saving grace is that it is cheap.
 

sgarg

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@sgarg sir

Who has told you that the modern Chinese govt wants a peaceful relationship with India? Do you even know who supports Maoists in the jungles of Orissa,WB and Jharkhand. ? Have you ever known about the Chinese aid in the development of Paki nuclear weapons. Also you probably do not know that China is one of the nations that does not want India to have a permanent seat in the UNSC. Here a few links you may go through.

Also China still wants Arunachal Pradesh.
Pakistan has been supported by the West for a long time. Let us not delude ourselves with the the thought that it is only China that supports Pakistan.

Pakistan gets external aid because it occupies a very strategic part of South Asia. However please remember that it was Congress party that accepted the partition of India on the basis of religion. Now the same party talks of being the most secular party.

The congress party cannot solve issues between India/Pakistan or India/China as it is the originator of these issues. Political philosophy is the very basis of long lasting solutions. Opportunism can never define a solution.

The outsiders will take advantage of our problems. China may also take advantage. However let us not fool ourselves that China is the only one that is taking advantage.

The most important thing for India is to develop economically at the same time it reinforces its defences.

China opposing India's seat in UNSC has a basis. We can discuss this in another thread.

China's claim on Arunachal Pradesh is spurious and this problem can be solved.
 
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