The Indian Navy Has a Big Problem: The Subsurface Dilemma

Ray

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India's Pearls in the Indian Ocean
Over the last decade or so, India has developed good security relationships with many states throughout the Indian Ocean, with particular focus on the maritime choke points of the Mozambique Channel in the southwest Indian Ocean, the Persian Gulf in the northwest and the Malacca Strait in the northeast. India is also developing a security presence in the central Indian Ocean astride the east-west SLOCs across the Indian Ocean.

SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

The southwestern Indian Ocean forms the gateway between the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. India's security relationships in the region are anchored by its close relationship with Mauritius, the island territory that lies around 900km to the east of Madagascar. India has long-standing and close political, economic and security associations with Mauritius. Some 70% of the Mauritian population is of Indian ethnic origin and for several decades Mauritius has acted as the primary gateway for international investment into India (originating from the United States, Europe and elsewhere), largely due to favourable tax arrangements.24

Former Mauritian Prime Minister Paul Berenger described the bilateral relationship as "umbilical and sacred" and security relations as "intense".25

The current President Anerood Jugnauth describes the connection in terms of "blood relations".26

The Mauritian elite see India in largely benign terms and appear to have accepted India as having a special role in Mauritian security. Cooperation is formalised in a 1974 defence agreement under which India has transferred patrol boats and helicopters to Mauritius (including the supply of a patrol vessel in 2010) and provides training to Mauritian personnel and officers for the Mauritian National Coast Guard and Police Helicopter Squadron (effectively the Mauritian navy and air force). Since 2003, the Indian Navy has also provided maritime security through periodic patrols of Mauritian waters including anti-piracy patrols in 2010.
27

India also backs Mauritius' territorial claims to Diego Garcia which was separated from Mauritian administration in the 1960s.28

Mauritian political leaders have publicly indicated on several occasions that India would be permitted to establish naval facilities on Mauritius if it so wished 29
and there are claims that India already operates a signals intelligence station.30

In 2006 and 2007 there were reports of discussions between the Mauritian and Indian governments over the long term lease to the Indian government of the Agalega islands (which lie between the island of Mauritius and the Seychelles), ostensibly for tourism.31

It has been speculated that India's intention was to upgrade the Agalega airstrip to service Indian manned and unmanned surveillance aircraft.32

Discussions over the proposal reportedly ended due to political sensitivities concerning the local creole population (contemplating, perhaps, the complaints of the Diego Garcians who were dispossessed from their islands following a deal between the British and Mauritian governments). India also has growing security relationships with Madagascar, Mozambique and the Seychelles, littoral states in and around the crucial Mozambique channel, the SLOC used by shipping transiting the Cape of Good Hope. The security of the Seychelles was highly contested during the latter half of the Cold War as the United States and the Soviet Union competed to maintain or establish a security presence there. At the same time, India was seen by the Seychelles as a benign regional protector. In the early 1980s, Seychelles' leftist President Albert Rene sought commitments from Indira Gandhi to intervene in the case of an attempted coup. Although Gandhi declined to provide public commitments, India did contribute two helicopters and training to the Seychelles security forces.33

The Indian Navy has assisted with maritime security in the Seychelles EEZ under a 2003 defence cooperation agreement under which it provided anti-piracy patrols in early 2010.34

In 2005 India gifted a patrol boat to the Seychelles—reportedly in a hurried effort to pre-empt offers of Chinese assistance.35

In July 2007 the Indian Navy opened an electronic monitoring facility in northern Madagascar at the head of the Mozambique Channel36 and reportedly has also been granted "limited" berthing rights in Madagascar for Indian naval vessels.37

The Indian Navy has also acted as a maritime security provider for Mozambique, including taking responsibility for maritime security during the 2003 African Union and 2004 World Economic Forum summits held in Maputo.38

In 2006, India and Mozambique entered a defence cooperation agreement that envisages joint maritime patrols, supply of military equipment, training and technology transfer in repairing and assembling military vehicles, aircraft and ships.39

India's maritime security relationships in the southwestern Indian Ocean are also buttressed by growing maritime security relations with France and South Africa. Since 2001 the Indian Navy has conducted annual exercises with the French navy, which operates out of Reunion and Djibouti. India has also sponsored the "IBSA" trilateral security dialogue among India, Brazil and South Africa, pursuant to which trilateral naval exercises have been held in 2008 and 2010 off the Cape of Good Hope. Further south, India also has a growing presence in Antarctica, with one active research station and a second due to open in 2012. While some might see India as holding a strong security role in the southwest Indian Ocean, there are fears in New Delhi that China might undermine or pre-empt Indian's relationships. According to the former Indian Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Prakash, India "cannot afford to have any hostile or inimical power threatening the island states in this region".40

Political and economic relations between China and Mauritius and Seychelles are closely watched by New Delhi41 and it has been claimed that a so-called Chinese "thrust" towards these states presages Sino-naval rivalry in the western Indian Ocean.42

While China may develop better economic and political interests in the area, it seems unlikely that it would be able to dislodge India as the dominant security provider to Mauritius and there are no indications at present that it would be able to seriously challenge India's maritime security role elsewhere in the southwest Indian Ocean.
 

sgarg

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@Ray, It is true that India can achieve a lot in IOR but only if the political and economic systems are optimized for it.
India, importing 80% of its defence needs, struggles to achieve a level of defence needed against immediate neighbours.
Meeting other countries defence needs is something that is unthinkable at present.

The influence and force projection will come when India can guarantee trade and security of other countries. However India has to achieve a level of self-sufficiency in arms before India can make any credible move in this direction.
 
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Ray

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@Ray, It is true that India can achieve a lot in IOR but only if the political and economic systems are optimized for it.
India, importing 80% of its defence needs, struggles to achieve a level of defence needed against immediate neighbours.
Meeting other countries defence needs is something that is unthinkable at present.

The influence and force projection will come when India can guarantee trade and security of other countries. However India has to achieve a level of self-sufficiency in arms before India can make any credible move in this direction.
While what you write is correct, but then if one has the capability (which India has) to block the chokepoints, especially the Malacca Straits, then the aim would be achieved to a great degree.

Further, whether India allies with the US or not, the chokepoint blockade is what worries the Chinese.

That is why they are opening up land and rail routes to China through Pakistan and Myanmar.

They are wary about such naval blockades choking and strangulating China from entering the Indian Ocean to safeguard her interests.

I might add China is also looking at the making a canal in the Isthmus of Kra in Thailand and the extensive use of the Lombok Straits of Indonesia.

Therefore, it is essential that India shore up their relations with Thailand and Indonesia so as to counter the Chinese from access to the Indian Ocean.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, the choke-point blockade a theoretical possibility. In reality, it will be very hard to achieve.
China is a continental power, and with Russia knocking at its door with its oil and gas, China is practically unstoppable.

India must be realistic. The events in Ukraine may look distant but a war like situation between NATO and Russia is a serious problem for India too.

International relations are basically give-and-take. I appreciate your point about Thailand and Indonesia, but again, what is in it for these countries to help India against China??
 
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sgarg

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Realistically, I do not see a war between China and India. There is a good reason for it. Both countries have far more to gain by way of trade and "peace" compared to small piece of land won in a war.

The fact that India possesses nukes increases risk for China; and vice-versa. So until the situation is absolutely out of control, the overt warfare is highly unlikely.

China is an aggressive BUT rational player.

Pakistan is a hideous and irrational player. The chances of war with Pakistan (nuclear also) are an order of magnitude higher compared to China.
 
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archie

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time to build our own Sousus system streaching from Andaman Nicobar
 

Ray

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@Ray, the choke-point blockade a theoretical possibility. In reality, it will be very hard to achieve.
China is a continental power, and with Russia knocking at its door with its oil and gas, China is practically unstoppable.

India must be realistic. The events in Ukraine may look distant but a war like situation between NATO and Russia is a serious problem for India too.

International relations are basically give-and-take. I appreciate your point about Thailand and Indonesia, but again, what is in it for these countries to help India against China??
At Phillips Channel close to the south of Singapore, the Strait of Malacca narrows to 2.8 km (1.5 nautical miles) wide, creating one of the world's most significant traffic choke points.

Therefore, would it really be a problem to choke?

How would the issues of NATO and Russia affect India? I have not understood that.
 
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sgarg

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At Phillips Channel close to the south of Singapore, the Strait of Malacca narrows to 2.8 km (1.5 nautical miles) wide, creating one of the world's most significant traffic choke points.

Therefore, would it really be a problem to choke?

How would the issues of NATO and Russia affect India? I have not understood that.
India is NOT in control of area around Phillips channel.

The Chinese have far more influence on nations of this region compared to India. I caution you about Singapore also. Singapore is more likely to be favorable to China rather than India.

It will take decades for India to increase it influence in this region to a level where India is seen as a protector, after India makes a concerted and determined effort.

The Russia/NATO conflict affects India in multiple ways:

1. It dramatically increases the influence of China and options available to China. The Russia has started leaning on China for raw material export and source of capital. This will grow to capital goods as Russians find it hard to import from Western sources.

2. It will impact Europe's behavior towards India as Russians have many projects in India so have good access to Indian facilities. India will not be trusted as much as would be in the absence of the conflict.

3. India's own problems with Pakistan can increase due to perception in Pakistan of China being its protector and China's growing might.
 

Ray

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India is NOT in control of area around Phillips channel.

The Chinese have far more influence on nations of this region compared to India. I caution you about Singapore also. Singapore is more likely to be favorable to China rather than India.

It will take decades for India to increase it influence in this region to a level where India is seen as a protector, after India makes a concerted and determined effort.

The Russia/NATO conflict affects India in multiple ways:

1. It dramatically increases the influence of China and options available to China. The Russia has started leaning on China for raw material export and source of capital. This will grow to capital goods as Russians find it hard to import from Western sources.

2. It will impact Europe's behavior towards India as Russians have many projects in India so have good access to Indian facilities. India will not be trusted as much as would be in the absence of the conflict.

3. India's own problems with Pakistan can increase due to perception in Pakistan of China being its protector and China's growing might.
The reference to the Philip Channel was illustrative to indicate the narrowness of the Strait and the feasibility to choke the Strait.

Due to its geographical location, the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago is ideal for surveilling shipping along the Straits of Malacca. Thus, a lot of emphasis is placed on the extension and modernization of the observation infrastructure located on these islands. Numerous strategic points, listening stations, supplemented by air surveillance units and soundproof submarines, has already allowed the India to monitor most if not all the maritime traffic in the region.

This surveillance of maritime traffic includes the Chinese naval components as well. It allows New Delhi not only to analyse its China's movements, but also complicates Beijing's attempts to enter the IO waters unnoticed with a larger number of combat units. The expansion of ANC's operational capability is also linked with other, lesser-known obstacles in the future.

Resources in Shipur and Camp Bell are undergoing advanced renovations as well, including the extension of runways. In addition, the landing sites for helicopters, radar stations and facilities for landing and taking off at night are also being modernized. This will complement the operational facilities in Port Blair and Car Nicobar as well as the ones planned to be built in Katchul and Hut Bay.

The commissioning of INS Baaz, the India's southernmost and easternmost naval air station, allows India to keep a hawk-like eye on the strategically important Malacca Strait. It is is about 90 nautical miles from Indonesia's Banda Aceh. Baaz will improve India's capacity to monitor security of waters running into the Malacca Strait.

Indian submarines would block the People's Liberation Army (Navy) from the Indian Ocean, at the straits of Malacca, Sunda, Lombok and Ombai Wetar. With 77 major surface warships, 60 submarines, 55 amphibious ships, and 85 missile boats, Indian can hold the PLA(N) at bay.

You may also peruse
Indian Defence Review - Google Books

In so far as Singapore is concerned, it would be fair to inform that modest presence of less than 200 US military personnel based permanently in Singapore and that the the US Navy announced plans to station several of its new Littoral combat ships in Singapore permanently. However, owing to the duplicitous manner in which such deployment occurs, it is being called 'forward stationing'. It would be pertinent to note that US Ambassador David Adelman said the deployment is part of the US plan to rebalance its Navy assets to the Asia Pacific as announced by former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who had said that about 60 percent of US war ships will be deployed to the Asia Pacific region.
(First US littoral combat ship arrives in Singapore on deployment - Global Times)

The Russia/NATO conflict affects India in multiple ways:

1. It dramatically increases the influence of China and options available to China. The Russia has started leaning on China for raw material export and source of capital. This will grow to capital goods as Russians find it hard to import from Western sources.

2. It will impact Europe's behavior towards India as Russians have many projects in India so have good access to Indian facilities. India will not be trusted as much as would be in the absence of the conflict.

3. India's own problems with Pakistan can increase due to perception in Pakistan of China being its protector and China's growing might.
Russia may get involved with China and it is already doing so, but then you are overlooking Russia apprehensions of the Chinese influence increasing in Russia's East. Therefore, to believe that Russia will not nuance its interactivity without caring for its strategic interest would be misplaced.

Europe's behaviour is of least concern to India. Their economy is dwindling fast and the Indian market is what they are eyeing, to include the defence requirement aspect. They require India more than India requires them.

Further, it is the US that will be of concern to India. Here too the US has to balance its strategic interest in favour of the US and China is the common focus. India is playing an important role to include the success that is accruing from its 'Look East' Policy. Vietnam is already a close partner and Myanmar is most favourably disposed. The Indian President's and Modi's upcoming visits to the East has immense potential. I might add that India played a role in easing of the US Iran thaw. Therefore, India is going places and others require India as much as India requires them.

China maybe Pakistan's guardian angel, but then India is also no push over and China knows that.

Therefore, it is going all well for India and apprehensions do not require to hinder us in seeking our legitimate place in the sun.
 

sgarg

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@Ray, surveillance and sea denial are two different things.

The air bases and naval resources in A&N (as it stands today) are not sufficient for a naval blockade.

You can not mix USA deployments with India's deployments. USA has its own planning and priorities. India is NOT in USA camp.

If the fight is between USA and China, then USA resources come into play.

While I concur with India's growing assets, the current force levels or planned force levels in the next 10 years are not sufficient to make India a dominant player in IOR.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, military alone cannot make India an acceptable superpower. The soft power - ideology, culture, language has to precede the hard power.

The Chinese naval presence in IOR can have reasons other than something that involves India. China is a major trading nation and it is concerned with the security of its trade.
 
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Ray

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@Ray, surveillance and sea denial are two different things.

The air bases and naval resources in A&N (as it stands today) are not sufficient for a naval blockade.

You can not mix USA deployments with India's deployments. USA has its own planning and priorities. India is NOT in USA camp.

If the fight is between USA and China, then USA resources come into play.

While I concur with India's growing assets, the current force levels or planned force levels in the next 10 years are not sufficient to make India a dominant player in IOR.
Surveillance in peace time and sea denial in war time. But that is besides the point when it comes to the control of the Strait.

How many ships to do think is required for control of a small exit of a Strait?

Check the naval assets and the size of the sea exist in the various choke point.

Let me give you a land warfare example for easy understanding.

How many units or troops do you required to man a Mountain Pass to stop the enemy ingress?

And how many troops do you require to remove the troops manning the Pass? It is 11:1 by conservative calculations.



@Ray, military alone cannot make India an acceptable superpower. The soft power - ideology, culture, language has to precede the hard power.

The Chinese naval presence in IOR can have reasons other than something that involves India. China is a major trading nation and it is concerned with the security of its trade.
You can have any inputs of soft power to become a superpower, but you cannot do it with the military might to become one genuine superpower.

Power grows from the Barrel of a Gun, so said Mao.

Of course China is concerned about her oil supplies and trade through the various Straits and that is why they are concerned about the Straits of Malacca.

That is why they are having the 'String of Pearls' Policy.

That is why they are having the land links to China from Pakistan and Myanmar.

They are clear that in the event of any conflict the Straits of Malacca and Hormiz can be successfully blocked to choke China.

That is why they are aggressively searching for oil in the South China Seas and with disdain poaching on other Nation's territorial waters and causing a security problem by disregarding the UN Law of the Sea also.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, I think it is USA, not India that China is planning against. The game is much bigger than it seems.

India is not yet there. I shall accept your hypothesis when India's GDP is roughly equal to 10T.

India's small force in A&N is not adequate for any sea denial role.

It is not the question of choke point. All your resources will be under attack in case of a conflict.
 
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Ray

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@Ray, I think it is USA, not India that China is planning against. The game is much bigger than it seems.

India is not yet there. I shall accept your hypothesis when India's GDP is roughly equal to 10T.

India's small force in A&N is not adequate for any sea denial role.

It is not the question of choke point. All your resources will be under attack in case of a conflict.
I am afraid that you do not understand China.

She is planning against all adversaries, big or small to further their national and strategic interest.

Let us get some of the lexicon that are being bandied about with a little bit of understanding.

SEA SEA DENIAL AND CONTROL - The military doctrine defines the operations of sea denial as those organized to prevent the use of the sea by an opposing force.

In other words, it comes to operations that tend to deny the use of a sea area for a certain period of time.

The sea denial usually occurs in cases of asymmetric warfare and provides a defensive posture , leaving the initiative leading to the actor who leads an attack, with some exceptions. The means used to implement the sea denial are small high-speed missile ( fast-attack craft ), anti-ship shore batteries, mines and especially submarines . The sea denial is often defined through what differentiates it from the sea control . The latter, instead, describes a situation in which a power has freedom of use to a maritime for its objectives and is able to prevent the use of an opponent . The concept of sea control was generally associated with situations of conflict symmetrical.

The projection of power (power projection) refers to the possibility that naval forces can help combat forces on the ground or attack ground targets. Between sea control and power projection there is some overlap as the sea control may be necessary to carry out military operations during a conflict, including those which require power projection. The sea denial strategy is a less all-encompassing (and ambitious) of sea control : While seeking to deny the use of a certain stretch of sea to an opponent, the sea denial does not imply that those who practice it also points to sea control for his own use. This is not a new strategy, but also applicable to maritime actors have reduced capacity by exploiting the continuous technological upgrading of naval weapons.

India and the ANC has the capability of sea denial

And sea denial is what has to be undertaken at the Straits of Malacca.

You do not require an armada to do so.

Your contention that all resources are not under attack is not valid in sea denial.

One has to understand naval strategy and tactics to understand the nuances of the terms and the application.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, I understand "sea denial". My view is IN is not in a position to blockade Malacca Straits. Thats all.
 
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Ray

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@Ray, I understand "sea denial". My view is IN is not in a position to blockade Malacca Straits. Thats all.
If you did, you would not have prolonged this debate.

And state
surveillance and sea denial are two different things
It appeared that you were subconsciously thinking of 'sea control' and 'projection of power'.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, India has a lot of options theoretically, but each option comes with a cost.

I agree that India can hit shipping in Malacca Straits if it has sound infrastructure on A&N islands. This would require a significant presence - may be couple of fighter squadrons and several ASW planes based at Campbell Bay.

However Chinese also have options. The Chinese can make use of Burmese Airports to hit at us. The Chinese will definitely make a missile attack on our air bases. The Chinese can also hit our ports and shipping.

There is no point in sea denial if we cannot protect our assets.
 
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Ray

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@Ray, India has a lot of options theoretically, but each option comes with a cost.

I agree that India can hit shipping in Malacca Straits if it has sound infrastructure on A&N islands. This would require a significant presence - may be couple of fighter squadrons and several ASW planes based at Campbell Bay.

However Chinese also have options. The Chinese can make use of Burmese Airports to hit at us. The Chinese will definitely make a missile attack on our air bases. The Chinese can also hit our ports and shipping.

There is no point in sea denial if we cannot protect our assets.
That is assuming Mynamar will allow the use of her airfields.

True, if they, the Chinese use their missiles, so can we.

You are delving in assumptions.

For all you know they can nuke A&N and whole of India.

End of story, right?

I go by reality and ground position.
 
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sgarg

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@Ray, I am not talking about nukes.

China has significant influence over Myanmar. China will be able to use both ports and airports of Myanmar.
 
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