The destabilisation of the Mideast in 2011

Ray

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[h=1]How the U.S. helped destabilize the Mideast in 2011[/h]
Iraq is facing a very uncertain future now that the Americans, worn down by the military (4,500 dead) and financial costs (over $1 trillion) have withdrawn their military forces.


The tide of sectarian conflict is rising, driven in part by Iranian ambition and Saudi Arabian fears. The Shi'ite majority sponsored by the Iranian government would seem to be making a concerted effort to dominate Iraq, while the Sunni minority, supported by Saudi Arabia, is becoming evermore resentful at the perceived persecution it suffers.

Moreover the Kurds have grown stronger and see more realistic chances to form an independent state which has control over the vital Kirkuk oil fields.


Iran has cemented its influence by backing various proxy groups of special forces such as the "Kataeb Hizballah" or party of God; Asaib Al Haq or League of the Righteous. Some of these militias originated as factions of the now thought to be disbanded Mahdi Army militia led by the radical cleric Moqtada Al Sadr. There is a close relationship between these groups and Iran's own security forces and this enables Iran to employ the militia to exert influence whenever it sees fit. This is especially true if the Sunni minority is seen to become too vocal or if the Iraqi government's policies move too strongly against Iranian interests.


Within the Iranian forces the most important figure to emerge since the departure of American forces is Maj. Gen. Qassem Suleimani. He took command of the Al-Quds forces in 2000 and has turned it into a key instrument of Iranian security policy.


The Al-Quds force has been highly active in covert action within Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip. Although the widely feared Suleimani presents a shadowy figure he is a major player in shaping Iranian foreign and security policy. He was instrumental in setting up the Shi'ite "Special Groups" that once reactivated in the last few months have been behind the killing of the U.S. troops in the lead up to the American withdrawal. In fact the Americans describe him as a terrorist.


For the Arabs in general, the U.S. pullout from Iraq has simply delivered Iraq into Iranian hands.

In response Saudi Arabia and to some extent Turkey, has been funding Sunni insurgents. Since the U.S. withdrawal the Saudi government has become more active in supporting clandestine operations in retaliation to the Shi'ite dominance. It is not clear, however, how long the Saudis can sustain this secret support without outside help.


Emboldened by Iranian support, the Shi'ite government led by Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has attempt to purge its strongest Sunni opponents. 600 high-ranking figures in Iraq's minority Sunni community were recently arrested.

Saudi Arabia is sure that this action was ordered by the clerics in Teheran and would seem to indicate Iran is willing to accept a certain degree of political turmoil, including terrorist activity against the Shiites, in return for overall political control.


This open campaign of the Iraqi government against its Sunni opponents may be a reaction to the spread of separatist ideas in the largely Sunni province of Salahuddin, where the exit of the Americans has left the population feeling vulnerable.


However, separatist discontent has also affected the Shi'ite South, where there is major resentment that the oil revenues mostly end up in Baghdad rather than staying in Basra. The reserves in the South represent two thirds of Iraq's oil reserves of 143 billion barrels.


All of these tensions simply fuel the concern felt in Saudi Arabia and among the Arab monarchies that the Americans have abandoned Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and will do likewise in Iraq and Afghanistan, thus further destabilizing the area.

How the U.S. helped destabilize the Mideast in 2011 | World Tribune
The headline appears to be misplaced unless of course, it is felt that the US should have hung around so that all these issues mentioned would not have happened.

The author, Dr. Fariborz Saremi is a commentator on TV and radio (German ARD/NDR TV,SAT 1,N24, Voice of America and Radio Israel) on Middle East issues, misses out the fact that the US has merely withdrawn from Iraq, but are very much in the vicinity and have based themselves in Kuwait, which is a safer place than Iraq and hence will not draw adverse reaction from the world as it was drawing owing to the Shia Sunni internecine seesaw and bombing that is raging in Iraq and which could put the US soldiers in harm's way warranting military strong reaction.

Nonetheless, the issues that are mentioned are pertinent to indicate how the Middle East is gearing up for disaster.

The age old historical religious or sectarian divide between the Muslims i.e. Shia Sunni is once again ready to be unleashed to the detriment of the people of the region and the stability of the world.

It is believed that the Saudis are also embarking on a nuclear quest to balance Iran.

Therefore, is it necessary for the US to be around the area to maintain harmony amongst the near belligerents?

What is the guarantee that other superpowers (nearly) will not muck in to queer the pitch further?

It is believed that a Russian carrier has entered Syria and Assad has refused to step down while the US, French and the British military assets are home into this area.
 

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Russian carrier arrives in Syria


January 9th, 2012

NICOSIA — The Russian Navy has sent warships to Syria.


The Russian Navy has sent at least three ships led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to the Syrian port of Tartous.


The naval delegation was led by Cmdr. Yakushin Vladimir Anatolievich in what was reported to have been a non-combat mission in the eastern Mediterranean.


"The arrival of the Russian vessels to Syria is to shorten the distance between the two countries and enhance the friendship between them," the official Syrian Arab News Agency said on Jan. 8.


The Syrian news agency did not report the number of Russian ships that anchored off Tartous, the only full-time Russian naval port outside Russia.


Anatolievich is said to have met Syrian officials, including Tartous Gov. Atef Al Nadaf, during the six-day visit.

This marked the first Russian Navy visit to Syria since the revolt against President Bashar Assad in March 2011.

In November, Moscow delivered coastal defense systems as well as long-range surface-to-surface rockets to the Syrian military.

http://www.worldnewstribune.com/2012/01/09/russian-carrier-arrives-in-syria/
 

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Syria's President Says He Won't Give Up Power


BEIRUT – Syrian President Bashar Assad vowed Tuesday to respond to threats against him with an "iron hand" and refused to step down, insisting he still has his people's support despite the 10-month-old uprising against him.

In his fourth speech since the revolt began in March, Assad repeated claims that a foreign conspiracy and terrorists are behind the unrest -- not true reform-seekers.

"Our priority now is to regain security which we basked in for decades, and this can only be achieved by hitting the terrorists with an iron hand," Assad said in the speech at Damascus University, where he stood at a podium flanked by Syrian flags. "We will not be lenient with those who work with outsiders against the country."

Assad also lashed out at the Arab League, saying the Cairo-based bloc failed to protect Arab interests. The League has suspended Syria and sent a team of monitors to assess whether the regime is abiding by an Arab-brokered peace plan that Assad agreed to on Dec. 19. The moves were humiliating for Syria, which considers itself a powerhouse of Arab nationalism.

"The Arab League failed for six decades to protect Arab interests," Assad said. "We shouldn't be surprised it's failed today."

The president has made few public appearances since the anti-government uprising began in March, inspired by the revolutions sweeping the Arab world. The regime's crackdown on dissent has killed thousands and led to international isolation and sanctions.

Tuesday's speech differed little from his previous appearances, in that Assad struck a defiant tone and reiterated claims of conspiracy.

Assad, 46, inherited power 11 years ago from his father and has largely followed the playbook of other autocratic leaders in the region who scrambled to put down popular uprisings by offering similar claims of conspiracy while unleashing a relentless crackdown on their people.

The formula failed in Tunisia and Egypt, where popular demands increased almost daily -- until people accepted nothing less than the ouster of the regime. But Syria's conflict has gone on far longer, and the death toll is mounting daily.

"We will declare victory soon," Assad said. "When I leave this post, it will be also based upon the people's wishes," he added.

Also Tuesday, Assad also accused hundreds of media outlets of working against Syria to "push us toward ... collapse."

"They failed, but they have not given up," he said in the speech, which was broadcast live on state television.

Since the start of the uprising, Assad has blamed a foreign conspiracy and media fabrications for the unrest -- allegations that the opposition and most observers dismiss. The regime has banned most foreign news outlets and prevented independent reporting.

In recent months, Syria's conflict has turned increasingly violent as army defectors turn their weapons on the regime and some protesters take up arms to protect themselves.

Syria agreed in December to an Arab League-brokered plan that calls for an end to the military crackdown on protesters, but killings have continued.

About 165 Arab League monitors are in Syria to determine whether the regime is abiding by the plan to stop violence and pull heavy weapons out of the cities.

The U.N. estimated several weeks ago that more than 5,000 people have been killed since March. Since that report, opposition activists say hundreds more have died.

Adnan al-Khudeir, head of the Cairo operations room that the monitors report to, said more observers will head to Syria in the coming days and the delegation should reach 200. He said the mission then will expand its work in Syria to reach the eastern province of Deir el-Zour and predominantly Kurdish areas to the northeast.

Assad also said he was implementing reforms -- but he emphasized the measures were not because of pressure from the crisis.

"If reform is forced, it will fail," he said. "Reform for us is the natural path."
 

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Russian, French warships off Syria, Iran, US drones over Iranian coast

British air and naval forces streamed to the Syrian and Iranian coasts over the weekend on guard for fresh developments at the two Middle East flashpoints.

The Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov anchored earlier than planned at Syria's Tartus port on the Mediterranean Sunday, Jan. 8, arriving together with the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry.

To counter this movement, France consigned an air defense destroyer Forbin to the waters off Tartus.

debkafile's military sources report a buildup in the last 48 hours of western naval forces opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in readiness for Tehran to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Britain has dispatched the HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer armed with new technology for shooting down missiles, to the Sea of Oman, due to arrive at the same time as the French Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier.

Our sources report too that Saturday, the giant RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV, took off from the USS Stenning aircraft carrier for surveillance over the coasts of Iran. The Stennis and its strike group are cruising in the Sea of Oman at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran announced it would not be allowed to cross through.

This was the first time the US has deployed unmanned aerial vehicles over Iran since its RQ-170 stealth drone was shot down by Iran on Dec. 4. It was also the first time the huge drone was ordered to take off from an aircraft carrier for a Broad Aerial Maritime Surveillance Mission (BAMS).

US military sources reported Monday, Jan. 9 that the Global Hawk's mission is "to monitor sea traffic off the Iranian coast and the Straits of Hormuz." The US Navy was ordered to maintain a watch on this traffic, another first, after Iranian Navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari said in a televised broadcast Sunday night that the Strait of Hormuz was under full Iranian control and had been for years.

Also Sunday, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff, warned in no uncertain terms that Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz "for a period of time." He added in a CBS interview: "We've invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that." Gen. Dempsey went on to emphasize: "Yes, they can block it. We've described that as an intolerable act and it's not just intolerable for us, it's intolerable to the world. But we would take action and reopen the straits."

Appearing on the same program, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned of a quick, decisive and very tough American response to any Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.

They both spoke a few hours after a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards said the supreme Iranian leadership had ruled the Strait must be closed in the event of an oil embargo imposed on Iran by the European Union.

debkafile's military sources report the constant escalation of military tension around Iran and Syria in recent days as not just stemming from the rapid advances Iran is making toward production of a nuclear weapon, but from fears in the West and Israel that Tehran and Damascus are in step over their military plans for the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean sectors.

After the Admiral Kuznetsov docked in Tartus Sunday with much fanfare, the Syrian Navy commander Dawoud Rajha was received on the deck by a guard of honor of marines under a flyover of Russian Su-33 and Su-25 fighter-bombers. This was taken as a signal of Moscow's willingness to back the Assad regime up against any Western military intervention as well as a gesture of support for cooperation between Syria and Iran in their operational plans.

Sunday, the Iranian media issued divergent statements about the situation at Iran's underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordo, near Qom: In English, the site as described as going on stream soon, while the Farsi media reported it was already operational.

The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Fereydoun Abbasi Davani declared furthermore," "¦the Islamic Republic is capable of exporting services related to nuclear energy to other countries."

This statement showed that Tehran has no fear of raising the level of its threats to the West up to the point of offering to hand out its nuclear technology to other countries in a gesture of uncontrolled proliferation.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security
 

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In this highly charged arena, India has sent its weapon of mass instruction - SM Krishna!

If Winter comes, can Spring be far behind?
 

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Given the reports above and the political upheavals, what will be the outcome?

Is the Middle East getting ready to implode?

Is there no way to clam the historical animosity between the Shias and Sunnis, which is the bedrock of most of the instability that is foreseen, wherein international powers that be are lining up behind their protégés!

Are we returning to the Cold War days?
 

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Nobody should fart in that region least everybody will be sorry... :scared2:
 

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It's all about oils, every country will join in if it serve their intrest. But Syria will explode sooner rather than later,i don't think Russia is gonna do anything. It's there to show NATO,US we're BACK!!!!!!!
 

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The presence of Russia will act as a deterrent to unilateral action by any other nation.

Russia still has a large military and sophisticated weaponry.
 

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Its a cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Middle East.. In Iraq as long as Americans were there the extremist elements had a common foe, the Great Satan. But after their withdrawal, the Shias, Sunnis and Kurds will be fighting among themselves.. The attacks are only going to worsen considering that 3 neighbouring countries Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are actively involved in promoting their interests.. A breakup of Iraq along sectarian lines wont be surprising..
 

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The presence of Russia will act as a deterrent to unilateral action by any other nation.

Russia still has a large military and sophisticated weaponry.

Russia as a deterrence? You're giving them too much credit...
 

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Iranian regime led by crazy Ahmedinejad is senselessly provoking the americans with their laughable military power and Uranium enrichment.. Americans fresh from a pullout in Iraq will only be too happy to oblige Iran.. It must be remembered that Iran doesnt have any friends in the region where Saudi Arabia and Israel are fiercely determined to topple the regime togethor with Americans.. Also Iraq and Afghan have also american military bases. So Iran is basically surrounded without any allies, whole world condemning its nuclear program and oil market sent into tizzy over its Straits of Hormuz exercises..
I think an Iran invasion will be highlight of year 2012
 

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Russia as a deterrence? You're giving them too much credit...
If the Russians had not intervened with their show of force and maybe backdoor dialogue, Assad would have been history.

The era of Gorbachev is over.

Putin has to show machismo if he is to survive and that is what is making him survive.

At one time, the CAR was slowly getting under the influence of the US. But now, they are edging towards Russia!

Subtle, but discernible!
 

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Imho, Russians are merely posturing in Syria.. There isn't going to be any unilateral action by any country.. However Arab League might sent its forces in case civilian genocide continues..
 

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Throughout the Cold war, including the Cuban crisis, the superpowers only undertook posturing.

Anything more would have been disaster.

MAD!
 

Arunpillai

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Throughout the Cold war, including the Cuban crisis, the superpowers only undertook posturing.

Anything more would have been disaster.

MAD!
this is the middle east.. Noone with nuclear weapons to threaten anyone.. So war is a reality here. It would be naive to expect Russia to militarily support an unpopular dictatorship for no tangible benefits whatsoever.. Remember NATO attacked Serbia in 90s yet Russia did not do anything. And Serbs were considered Southern Slavic Brothers of russians..
 

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this is the middle east.. Noone with nuclear weapons to threaten anyone.. So war is a reality here. It would be naive to expect Russia to militarily support an unpopular dictatorship for no tangible benefits whatsoever.. Remember NATO attacked Serbia in 90s yet Russia did not do anything. And Serbs were considered Southern Slavic Brothers of russians..
Whether it is ME or anywhere, when two powers that be confront each other, there is an armed peace. Georgia is an example when the US told that enough is enough and Russia supported Abkhazia. The Russia troops withdrew into Abkhazia.

Nato is still holding back from offering Georgia a Membership Action Plan.

In so far as Serbia:

"Russia and Yugoslavia signed the protocol on military cooperation in December 1998. However, Russia could not provide any military assistance to the country over the UN Security Council resolution, which banned any kinds of arms shipments to Yugoslavia. Russia upheld the resolution too," historian Vladimir Putyatin told Pravda.ru.


"Technically, Russia was supposed to send its military specialists to Yugoslavia if it was ever going to ship military hardware, presumably air defense systems, to the country. The nation did not have such missile complexes. If Russia had made such a delivery, Yugoslavia would have been able to show resistance to NATO's attacks," the scientist said.


Anatoly Tsyganok, an expert with the Institute for Political and Defense Analysis, believes that Russia had missed its chances to exert influence on the situation in Yugoslavia. "We should have stayed in Pristina to have an opportunity to dictate our conditions from there," he said.


Konstantin Sivkov, the first vice president of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, told Pravda.ru that Russia did have a chance to help Yugoslavia, if Russia had the sufficient number of S-300 systems and personnel. The Yugoslavian Army was not defeated in the conflict. NATO's Air Force destroyed less than one percent of Serbian troops.


One has to acknowledge that Russia was guilty of Yugoslavia's collapse. Moscow put pressure on Milosevic and pushed him towards capitulation. It is worthy of note that NATO was about to end the military operations over the pressure from the general public.

The Parliament of Yugoslavia voted for the nation's annexation to Russia and Belarus. Russia's State Duma recommended then-President Boris Yeltsin to take those wishes into consideration, although Yeltsin did not agree to cooperate.


Alexander Khramchikhin, an expert with the Institute for Political and Defense Analysis, believes that Russia did not have an opportunity to defend Yugoslavia. "There was a threat to start a nuclear war with the USA. Russia has made such a mistake before, in 1914, when we became involved in WWI because of the Serbs. However, the Serbs have never helped Russia for some reason. Milosevic had a chance to avoid the war. The West did not consider him a bloody dictator prior to the events in Kosovo. He lost his chances to solve everything peacefully. He betrayed his nation with his capitulation. When it happened, NATO was considering the beginning of the land operation. If the Yugoslavian leader had decided to fight back, he should have done it to the bitter end. Otherwise he should have surrendered in the very beginning not to make his nation suffer. I do not understand why some of our patriots praise Milosevic as if he is a national hero," the specialist said.


It is worthy of note that Russian and Yugoslavian officials were negotiating the issue of Russia's debt to Yugoslavia in 1996-1997. The latter had a chance to receive S-300 complexes as debt payment. The Serbs declined the offer. The rest is history.

Russia's efforts to save Yugoslavia from NATO could have led to nuclear war - English pravda.ru
 

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If the Russians had not intervened with their show of force and maybe backdoor dialogue, Assad would have been history.

The era of Gorbachev is over.

Putin has to show machismo if he is to survive and that is what is making him survive.

At one time, the CAR was slowly getting under the influence of the US. But now, they are edging towards Russia!

Subtle, but discernible!

It's not Russia that's preventing West from intervening there, it's the Syrian opposition who can't seem to agree among themselves on a strategy. The West definitely will not intervene by sending troops on the ground. This part has to be done by the Syrians.
 

Arunpillai

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@ray.
I dont understand the Georgian context. As far as i know, Georgia which had significant American support, attacked autonomous pro russian provinces of south ossetia and abkhazan.. Following Russian reprisals, georgian troops were pushed back into mainland Georgia. Following international condemnation Russian troops withdraw back into pre war position..
As for Serbia, remember there was no security council resolution asking for war on Serbia.. NATO justified its attack based on articles on its Charter 4.. Yet Russia did nothing.. Serbia to Russia is like Britain to America.. Russia could have done more than planning to send anti aircraft gunnery specialists...
 

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