They have a decent option of working with Turkey on a real 5th gen design and replace their Gripen Cs with the new aircraft around the same time period as 2023. Turkey has plans to induct a Gripen class 5th gen fighter after 2020. Japan has the ATD-X program for a Gripen weight class tech demonstrator and will develop a full fledged aircraft called F-3, F-16 B60 class fighter, by 2027. Korea's program is less ambitious, and it should be in the Gripen NG weight class. But Korea wants to be the main development partner. So, no good for Saab. According to Sweden, Gripen C is obsolete and will be entirely useless in combat by 2020. NG will have a chance to survive, but even that is up to debate. "Gripen måste moderniseras för att klara flygstrider" - NyTeknik Gripen C, currently, is very advanced in terms of maturity of systems and sensor fusion. Gripen has a clear air picture while it is still on the tarmac. No other fighter has this capability. NG will far exceed it, but unfortunately, not up to the level of EF/Rafale. Too bad, but the only consolation is that the NG will be much cheaper apart from being a newer design. The Chinese will be their biggest competitors though, with J-10B (maybe even C) and JF-17 Block 3. Maybe even we can pitch in with a LCA Mk3. So, they will be better off competing with something like the J-31 instead and still keep their air force relevant after 2020. Their expertise in networking and sensor fusion is top notch. If they become a development partner with either the Japanese or the Turks, the aircraft delivered will be one of the best there is.
Every country needs a minimum capability to deter their neighbors and in Sweden's case, the big bear, their primary military rival.
