Surgical strikes inside Pak. Possibility?

[aliyah]

Terrorism is a policy of weak state, which cannot win in traditional war. India has tactical and numerical superiority over Pak and can hit them hard. Force projection is not such a bad idea.

terrorism is not complete strategy it is just a part of strategy. eg libration of Bangladesh with mukti bahini. within few yrs there will another example....... Baluchistan .......work in progress,wait n watch how to use it effectively

 

[Mad Indian]

The object of giving the Pak generals any negative Payoff, is to stop them from at a minimum supporting terrorist acts, and ideally, the Pak population eventually to take much of the power away from their generals and to start acting like a modern responsible state.

OTher than this part I agree completely. Given that the education given to the Pak, I doubt this is ever real.

Also, people forget that their Army enjoys a very high popularity in its state. Its not like the army is wielding ower without the backing of the Paki populace. This is a mistake which every Indian makes- that somehow Pakis want peace and are rational while only their generals are mad dogs. The truth however is that their leaders are mad dogs only because their society is a mad dog. So the only solution to Paki menace is its demice

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

what about the Oil? .......................

Do you really think they will stop selling oil for some hypthetical situation which can arise and is just leaked out without any source of confirmation?

Also, they cannot lose a big customer like India. So show some spine!

 

[tarunraju]

I think RAW should build links with ISIS and make a way for them to enter pakistan and basically stir a sectarian war.

ISIS can never quantitatively hook up with Pakistan because there's Iran between Pakistan and ISIS hotzones. Pakistan is a nice buffer-state between India and ISIS. Pakis can't provide safe passage for ISIS to India without themselves getting burned. They can't "create" local ISIS cells without getting burned either.

Also, Paki generals don't want to lose their monopoly to another militant-political entity such as itself. So it makes no sense for India to engage the ISIS in any way that hits Pakistan. I imagine that India does engage ISIS for cheap oil, but that's about it.

Whatever "ISIS" activity you see east of Iran is by wannabes and phoneys, who will never be able to do any quantitative damage.

 

[Nicky G]

It is a mistake to think that Paki generals are not rational. They are rational. Hitler, except maybe in the latter years of WW2 was rational. He was evil, but he was rational. Likewise Pak generals from our perspective are evil, but they are rational. it's just that they have different payoffs from us. Their payoffs are credibility and glory to the Islamic 'Ummah'. That is what they crave. They want recognition and glory in being at the forefront of the fight against the idol worshippers. If we understand this, then it means that we can predict their behaviour in certain scenarios, and hence from the point of view of Game theory, they are rational. Our challenge is to manage their payoffs without achieving negative payoffs for ourselves.

I said they are irrational if they ever launch their nukes. Its not a matter of evil, thats just relative and frankly immaterial.

There is nothing to suggest that the Paki elite would care for any religious Umma or whatever, self and national interest comes above all else. Sacrificing self for religion is for foot soldiers, not for elites. They send others to blow themselves, not do it themselves.

The assumption that they are driven by some religious goal is simply flawed in my opinion. Thus, any deterrent based on that flawed assumption would be a disaster.

Second, any posturing, be it real or bluff has to be credible, I.e believable. Attacking and destroying the world is not a believable position that we can take. Even nuclear attacking China, just because of Pakistan, maybe stretching credibility. We can as Tarun says adopt the possibility of being seen as a bit crazy Hindhus, like crazy isrealis and threatening Armageddon on the Ummah, for the actions of the Pak generals. I am not sure I agree with this approach. But I do think it is a credible bluff. It will have the effect of scaring the Ummah, and hence leading to criticism of the Pak generals from those that they most wish to impress.

Footnote added later. 'Rational' is a Game theory concept. you cannot use game theory against an opponent that is completely irrational, without motivations and hence entirely unpredicatibale. Paki generals have set motivations, I.e Payoffs, and so are predictable.

Obviously, we currently wouldn't seem credible if our posture was destruction of the world or those who have helped the retards who actually launch nukes at present. I stated as much. Thus, my line about developing capacity to target anywhere in the world with long range ICBM and SLBM with MIRV.

We have sufficient ability to destroy Pak and China at the least or set the later back irrevocably for their enemies to march in. For the world, we need more, I only hope we are making rapid progress. China comes in to the equation for being Pak's current sugar daddy and using them as a proxy against us. They seem to have the most control and are a nation that we can harm significantly even with our current capability.

The distinction in our approaches - you consider someone who launches nukes first at a nation that can destroy you as rational, thus, you wish to depend on them and some sense of religious glorification for deterrence.

I see that as a mistake compounded by an even worse one.

Again, I don't see any of this as really enough to deter Paki retards, only their balkanization ever would.

 

[Screambowl]

Do you really think they will stop selling oil for some hypthetical situation which can arise and is just leaked out without any source of confirmation?

Also, they cannot lose a big customer like India. So show some spine!

That far we will not go that we will have to threat Saudi with nuclear weapon due to Pakistan right now. Slow and stead weaken the Pakistan and when there is enough division, due to political parties, or sectarian violence or economic crisis, play the card to support leaders province wise. Once for all balkanize it and threat will reduce. But it will take time. Bombing them via surgical strike is not going to help us anyhow. They want us to bomb them and deviate us from our development and indulge in some war.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

That far we will not go that we will have to threat Saudi with nuclear weapon due to Pakistan right now. Slow and stead weaken the Pakistan and when there is enough division, due to political parties, or sectarian violence or economic crisis, play the card to support leaders province wise. Once for all balkanize it and threat will reduce. But it will take time. Bombing them via surgical strike is not going to help us anyhow. They want us to bomb them and deviate us from our development and indulge in some war.

Bhai, balkanization is a separate strategy we should work on.

The above surgical strike doctrine is different and can be used at same time and is just a disinformation tool to blunt the Paki nuclear threat in case we decide to send some Su-30MKI there for fun.

 

[Compersion]

The fact is that the USA senators asked the wrong guy . Obviously this is assuming what khurshid say is true (history of pakis that exaggerated and lie not a good track record).

According the excerpt and what heard the USA chaps wanted a "civilian" opinion.

This guy represents the paki community where it is their duty to see they survive by hook and crook. The paki civilian population has a more different level of intellect (many will say lower quality) ... It might be of survival but of a different kind. That means that when a paki representative from civilian and civil society ask what happen if India makes a surgical strike the answer will NOT be that they will respond in 5 minutes.

This khurshid guy deserved to be slapped trying to earn money from India ... And pretending to be friendly. But he knows why he needs to say what he said.

But it won't be understood by who needs to in Pakistan ... Because the opinons of pakistan is not who he represents ...

 

[roma]

I will still say if we have to do something in public, Airstrike is the best possible option we have and if we have to make more damage to Porkistan then best option is terrorism now. But in Any case WAR is not an option.

I don't understand a simple thing, maybe someone here can guide me.

We all accept that cross border terrorism is a State sponsored terrorism. So they have active backing of state and it's apparatus .

So when you have to deal with a problem, do we target the final output , in this case terrorist themselves , or the root , i.e state and their sponsors.

Secondly, do we seriously believe that this kind of ideological warfare can be dealt using method of conventional warfare alone ?

i agree that guerilla warfare that packland is engaging in via terrorism cannot or rather, preferably should not be dealt with via conventional methods

someone above mentioned game theory - which forces your opponent to look at alternative behaviours ....in that case i would recommend Reverse or Reciprocal Game Theory which forces us to use modelling whether computer or real simulated scenarios and which forces us to come up with alternative strategies

you see to retaliate openly to terrorist guerilla -type war is opening oneself to a lot of Geneva convention -type responsibilities and accountabilities from the international community while packland will just pretend that it is non state actors as before and let the bickering continue between India which has to answer the hypocritical international organisations such as the lame duck UN and other international NGO's while pack sits cool and pretends they did nothing .

preferably instead we play the same game ....we have to develop and give arms to shias in GB, Balouchis and Sindhi nationalists saraiki , pathans etc etc who are totally fed up with pakjabis jabbing them in the back all the time.

hope doval, parricker and company are thinking along these lines - otherwise back to kindergarten for all of us ....i believe they are smarter than the predecessors ....btw i dont think highly of vajpayee who when parliament was attacked , basically he did nothing more than talk big

Modi has to show he is different

i feel he will have a chance to prove himself, as i believe it is only a matter of time before packland puts him to the test .....it's only a matter of time before isi-packland conducts the next large-scale terrorist operation in India , and doval, parricker, modi have to be prepared for this, ........ now is the time to have a strategy for retaliation in a covert way so that we dont have to answer the international hypocrites.

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[Abhijat]

@roma ji , an apt idiom may be : "Hathi ke dant dekhane ke aur khane ke aur"

 

[LalTopi]

.it's only a matter of time before isi-packland conducts the next large-scale terrorist operation in India , and doval, parricker, modi have to be prepared for this, ........ now is the time to have a strategy for retaliation in a covert way so that we dont have to answer the international hypocrites.

In response to a high profile terrorist attack on India, our response must be overt and in Paks face. I have already explained why. We don't have to worry too much about obtaining proof of guilt before striking. Our response does not have to be particularly accurate nor targeted, as long as it makes the Pak military look impotant. Our answer to the international hypocrites is one and the same and to be repeated over and over: 'we are answerable to no other nation in the defence of our nation, and we will always strike back if attacked. We have all the proof of guilt that we need and are answerable to no one '.

Thank you Isreal for the lesson in terrorist management and International diplomacy.

 

[aliyah]

ppl in india who never been to south Asian countries only think wat they r shown......we show to world that we r soft power sufferer of all evil forces around us.......this is the best strategy anyone can think of.......why?? look at china . As china start showing its muscles every country in asia- Pacific region started uniting against china. but china has huge economy they will be bigger then US in some time so it suits them. we dont have that big economy we still needs to do lot lot more. we r 3rd largest army in world and if we start showing our muscles it will be disaster for india. so a soft power is best thinking.
so does it meen india sitting silent everytime ?? nop we were never silent.... u know which is the deadliest organization in South aisa?? nop its not some terrorist organization its govt org called R&AW. who created mukti bahini in Bangladesh, who created ltte in srilanka etc etc,there r on average 1500 terrorist attack happening in Pakistan every year.100 times more then india.
so in reality we r bigger,smarter,deadlier.......but still a soft power.
Ahinsa hi param dharma..........

 

[I_PLAY_BAD]

India must arm Blochis, Mojahirs, Shias and PoK residents.
Only way to make Pakis lose steam.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

ppl in india who never been to south Asian countries only think wat they r shown......we show to world that we r soft power sufferer of all evil forces around us.......this is the best strategy anyone can think of.......why?? look at china . As china start showing its muscles every country in asia- Pacific region started uniting against china. but china has huge economy they will be bigger then US in some time so it suits them. we dont have that big economy we still needs to do lot lot more. we r 3rd largest army in world and if we start showing our muscles it will be disaster for india. so a soft power is best thinking.
so does it meen india sitting silent everytime ?? nop we were never silent.... u know which is the deadliest organization in South aisa?? nop its not some terrorist organization its govt org called R&AW. who created mukti bahini in Bangladesh, who created ltte in srilanka etc etc,there r on average 1500 terrorist attack happening in Pakistan every year.100 times more then india.
so in reality we r bigger,smarter,deadlier.......but still a soft power.
Ahinsa hi param dharma..........

Really. After a Mumbai style attack if India goes and hunts down few Paki buggers, the world would be worried about India!!

Soft and hard power go hand in hand. Russia and India are similar size but Russia doesn't give a damn about world opinion.

 

[aliyah]

Really. After a Mumbai style attack if India goes and hunts down few Paki buggers, the world would be worried about India!!

Soft and hard power go hand in hand. Russia and India are similar size but Russia doesn't give a damn about world opinion.

yes Russian dont give a damn about world opinion result with all those sanctions Russian economy bleeding like hell .5 more yrs if crude price are below 50$.....bye bye russia.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

yes Russian dont give a damn about world opinion result with all those sanctions Russian economy bleeding like hell .5 more yrs if crude price are below 50$.....bye bye russia.

India is not so export dependent. And btw no one here is suggesting to go for war- CSD means war while bombing few targets is not war. You missed whole point of this thread.

 

[Screambowl]

Bhai, balkanization is a separate strategy we should work on.

The above surgical strike doctrine is different and can be used at same time and is just a disinformation tool to blunt the Paki nuclear threat in case we decide to send some Su-30MKI there for fun.

If we do surgical strikes, this will unite Pakistanis and long agenda of dividing them will be a flop. Pakistan requires a war with India, that's their strategy to unite their breaking society. And this is why India is not willing to go for such strikes 'OVERTLY' but yes to Covert Strikes.

Sukhoi 30 is in the case, to help Balochis and Baltistanis, if war breaks out so that they get a new Identity. But they should first be ready to take our help directly.

 

[Mad Indian]

ppl in india who never been to south Asian countries only think wat they r shown......we show to world that we r soft power sufferer of all evil forces around us.......this is the best strategy anyone can think of.......why?? look at china . As china start showing its muscles every country in asia- Pacific region started uniting against china. but china has huge economy they will be bigger then US in some time so it suits them. we dont have that big economy we still needs to do lot lot more. we r 3rd largest army in world and if we start showing our muscles it will be disaster for india. so a soft power is best thinking.
so does it meen india sitting silent everytime ?? nop we were never silent.... u know which is the deadliest organization in South aisa?? nop its not some terrorist organization its govt org called R&AW. who created mukti bahini in Bangladesh, who created ltte in srilanka etc etc,there r on average 1500 terrorist attack happening in Pakistan every year.100 times more then india.
so in reality we r bigger,smarter,deadlier.......but still a soft power.
Ahinsa hi param dharma..........

False equivalence is false. Seriously when are we Indians ever going to stop being pathetic I don't know. How many countries have united against USA today, considering the no. of countries USA has bombed in the last decade alone, let alone the previous wars. Why?


China is not being ganged up on because they are flexing muscles. They are being ganged up on because they are claiming land on everyone. That is not the case with India .

In fact, showing muscle is exactly how you get respect and influence against the enemies of China, showing that we have the balls to take on and defend our interests and hence it is worthwhile for them to ally with us.


And no country in the world gives a jack shit about what we do to other countries so long as it does not affect them. That is, unless the countries in question host terrorism against India, those countries won't give a damn if India takes out terrorist nations like Pak.


You people have bought this soft power and "let others to fuck you to increase your social respect in the world" crap of the self respect lacking socialist dogs who ruled us for so long too seriously

 

[roma]

ppl in india who never been to south Asian countries only think wat they r shown......we show to world that we r soft power sufferer of all evil forces around us.......this is the best strategy anyone can think of.......why?? look at china . As china start showing its muscles every country in asia- Pacific region started uniting against china. but china has huge economy they will be bigger then US in some time so it suits them. we dont have that big economy we still needs to do lot lot more. we r 3rd largest army in world and if we start showing our muscles it will be disaster for india. so a soft power is best thinking.
so does it meen india sitting silent everytime ?? nop we were never silent.... u know which is the deadliest organization in South aisa?? nop its not some terrorist organization its govt org called R&AW. who created mukti bahini in Bangladesh, who created ltte in srilanka etc etc,there r on average 1500 terrorist attack happening in Pakistan every year.100 times more then india.
so in reality we r bigger,smarter,deadlier.......but still a soft power.
Ahinsa hi param dharma..........

Really. After a Mumbai style attack if India goes and hunts down few Paki buggers, the world would be worried about India!!

Soft and hard power go hand in hand. Russia and India are similar size but Russia doesn't give a damn about world opinion.

Many of the above post before mine now, have made great points .... in the face of another major terrorist attach on india, in india , we have basically 4 alternatives :- (a) as in the past talk tough but in the end do nothing ....which isi-packland has gotten used to by now, which is why they keep at it (b) overt action like israel and (c) covert action (d) combination of these ...

I basically would go along with those who prefer covert action , but not for the same reasons that member @aliyah has stated in the quote ....not "because india is unable" ( or words to that effect ) .

Even if india was "as strong as China" i would still prefer covert action because....(a) we can play the same hypocritical game the west and others are playing ....we can show them 2 can play the same game .. (b) for obvious reasons we are protected name wise (c) just as we see prcchina being dislike by almost all asean countries we can avoid any possibility of that happening to us and more importantly (d) we will have organizations or people whom we can use repeatedly INSIDE their systems , which we would not have if we did a military style open attack or even surgical strike.....

i would still stick with the preference of totally covert operations, as in my earlier post slightly above ths one , rather than overt operations or surgical strike ...concentrate more on balouchistan because they are in the gravest danger of being totally wiped out via ethnic genocides which i believe the isipackland army is doing at alarmingly high rates

the only overt campaigns would be to take up their case and those of the sindhis and saraikis to international forums like UN and other talking shops and diplomatically be much more aggressive than we are at the moment

heck, nawaz shariff is carrying the kashmir football with him wherever he goes and is now cry-babying to the usa

we can do a much better job about taking the cases of balouchis and Sindhis to the international forums especially as we dont have the aggressive image that isipakcland has in the world view and this advantage we now have will be preserved if we do covert rather than overt operations

the disadvantage of covert is of course that it will take longer - but i feel the advantages outweigh the disadvantages and so i feel that is preferably the way to go .

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[Dovahkiin]

in case of any escalation, both Indian and porki economy could face serious decline in FDI and International boycott which obviously would hurt us more. very competent people are leading the nation and our generation is lucky to have NSA's Doval sir and Modiji at the helm. imho pak will balkanize itself, uproar of anti-pak voices already raised in pok.