Sukhoi PAK FA

[IndianHawk]

Su-57 doesn't have the recessed missile compartments so if it is carrying two bombs it can only carry A2A missiles externally. Every mission it would be performing would require it to have something mounted externally whether it be pods, tanks or extra weapons to complete the mission. The internal configuration isn't enough to finish any of the missions accept a short CAP that didn't need the extra missiles.

You are repeating same argument.
The fundamental mistake you are making is thinking rafale is stealth alternative for IAF which is simply untrue.
Remember mmrca program and fgfa program both were going on in parallel. Mmrca and therefore rafale is not the replacement of fgfa.

Rafale simply fills the void of medium category in IAF and mwf will compliment it. That's it.

Stealth fighter is different and separate requirement. That is why India funded fgfa preliminary design and is embarking on amca.
Now it seems it will go all in with AMCA but if amca is delayed or technology is not mature enough ( uprated engine for amca by2030)then India might go for su57mki. Or alternatively India might go for 2 5thgen fighters with su57 and amca as it will need almost 400 5th gen birds by 2040.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Defcon 1]

You didn't read my post . I said we will only consider su57 when item 30 engine is operational by 2025 likely.

Amca will only come by 2030 if everything goes right. So IAF will go without a stealth bird for an entire decade while Chinese will field 100+ j20 by then. ( They already have 20? Even before 2020) .

And if amca is delayed or amca new engine comes later what does IAF do then?

Saying rafale is sufficient for j20 is one thing but that doesn't negate having a stealth bird ourselves which can penetrate deep into Chinese airspace undetected.

IAF also said that su30 MKI can spot j20.
We know iaf have better bvr than Chinese so
What is the need for rafale? Su30mki itself can shoot down j20 by that reasoning!

I am not advocating for su57 . Simply looking at possiblity without bias. India will need to upgrade it's entire fleet gradually to 5th gen birds so there is plenty of numbers to be filled in the long run.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

I am also looking at the situation without bias. The facts we know are:
1. IAF has a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons, i.e. 840 fighters.
2. LCA MK2 is expected to replace mirage 2000, mig 29 and jaguars
3. AMCA is expected to enter production by 2032.
4. Sukhoi 30 are not going anywhere before 2040

Considering all of the above l, in 2040, the IAF looks as follows. 272 sukhoi 30s+ 123 lca mk1 + 201 lca mk2 + 150 Rafale + 100 odd AMCA. This is 840 fighters, i.e. the sanctioned squadron strength for IAF. Clearly, there is no space for Su57 regardless of item 30 engine unless something goes wrong with lca mk2 or AMCA, or the sanctioned strength changes.

I would have preferred more stealth fighters myself, but it is unlikely to happen before 2040, when the sukhois begin to retire. Looks like IAF doesn't place as much importance on stealth as USAF.

 

[IndianHawk]

I am also looking at the situation without bias. The facts we know are:
1. IAF has a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons, i.e. 840 fighters.
2. LCA MK2 is expected to replace mirage 2000, mig 29 and jaguars
3. AMCA is expected to enter production by 2032.
4. Sukhoi 30 are not going anywhere before 2040

Considering all of the above l, in 2040, the IAF looks as follows. 272 sukhoi 30s+ 123 lca mk1 + 201 lca mk2 + 150 Rafale + 100 odd AMCA. This is 840 fighters, i.e. the sanctioned squadron strength for IAF. Clearly, there is no space for Su57 regardless of item 30 engine unless something goes wrong with lca mk2 or AMCA, or the sanctioned strength changes.

I would have preferred more stealth fighters myself, but it is unlikely to happen before 2040, when the sukhois begin to retire. Looks like IAF doesn't place as much importance on stealth as USAF.

Good post.
Here is my argument.
Mmrca was originally supposed to replace mig29 , mirage etc. But now we have mwf for that . So I think mwf and rafale both together will replace them and hence 150 rafale won't come.
It may be 72 rafale ( 36 more)and then 200 mwf.

Even amca was initially supposed to replace jaguar and mig27 .

Su30 MKI will start retiring from 2040. Then we will need 300 5th gen birds so are all of them going to be amca?

Also more importantly is IAF willing to remain without a stealth fighter for an entire decade as amca won't come before 2030. And even then AMCA prototype will fly with current f414 but production series will require an uprated engine of 110kn class so it might delay the program.




Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Armand2REP]

You are repeating same argument.
The fundamental mistake you are making is thinking rafale is stealth alternative for IAF which is simply untrue.
Remember mmrca program and fgfa program both were going on in parallel. Mmrca and therefore rafale is not the replacement of fgfa.

Rafale simply fills the void of medium category in IAF and mwf will compliment it. That's it.

Stealth fighter is different and separate requirement. That is why India funded fgfa preliminary design and is embarking on amca.
Now it seems it will go all in with AMCA but if amca is delayed or technology is not mature enough ( uprated engine for amca by2030)then India might go for su57mki. Or alternatively India might go for 2 5thgen fighters with su57 and amca as it will need almost 400 5th gen birds by 2040.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

Why do you make me keep repeating myself? You do not deny that the Su-57 isn't stealth but still insist it should fill a stealth requirement. IAF has three categories of fighters, Heavy/Medium/Light... stealth is not one of the categories. If they had bought FGFA they would have cut orders for MKI as it fills the Heavy fighter role. IAF knows they are not going to get AMCA for a very long time. The purchase of Rafale will be done in batches until AMCA can be acquired. Rafale is the current Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft of the IAF and will be purchased several more times. The first batch sets up the infrastructure, the next batch will set up assembly. That is how Modi operates to spread adequate funding over enough fiscal years to pay for it. He isn't a broke ass debtor like Pakistan that has to beg for weapons on the promise they will find oil and gas. Now that the M88 is getting an uprated core, it clears several reservations about using M88 as the core of Kaveri. The old core wasn't powerful enough.

 

[IndianHawk]

Why do you make me keep repeating myself? You do not deny that the Su-57 isn't stealth but still insist it should fill a stealth requirement. IAF has three categories of fighters, Heavy/Medium/Light... stealth is not one of the categories. If they had bought FGFA they would have cut orders for MKI as it fills the Heavy fighter role. IAF knows they are not going to get AMCA for a very long time. The purchase of Rafale will be done in batches until AMCA can be acquired. Rafale is the current Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft of the IAF and will be purchased several more times. The first batch sets up the infrastructure, the next batch will set up assembly. That is how Modi operates to spread adequate funding over enough fiscal years to pay for it. He isn't a broke ass debtor like Pakistan that has to beg for weapons on the promise they will find oil and gas. Now that the M88 is getting an uprated core, it clears several reservations about using M88 as the core of Kaveri. The old core wasn't powerful enough.

You again didn't read.
Rafale is mmrca outcome. It was required since 2004 . It has nothing to do with either fgfa or amca or stealth.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[IndianHawk]

Btw about numbers. Pwc and imf numbers suggest that India will be 10 trillion economy by 2030 and atleast 16 trillion nominal by 2040.

For a 16-20 trillion economy to maintain a measly 800 fighter doesn't make sense.

Our defense budget could be 16*2/100=300 billion+ .
Logic dictates that IAF size should atleast double to 1500 fighters!!

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Armand2REP]

You again didn't read.
Rafale is mmrca outcome. It was required since 2004 . It has nothing to do with either fgfa or amca or stealth.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

You go ahead and show me where IAF issued an RFI for "stealth" aircraft... waiting.

 

[IndianHawk]

You go ahead and show me where IAF issued an RFI for "stealth" aircraft... waiting.

Are you kidding? IAF funded fgfa with Russia .
Provided 250 million $ for development of a stealth bird. Amca project is in detailed design phase for a stealth fighter!!

You are not getting the point are you?
Let me simplify. Even if India had bought 126 mirages back in 2004 it still would have gone ahead with fgfa in 2007 as it eventually did.
Amca would still be approved.

Now India chose rafale as mirage was out of production. So even if India had bought 126 rafale in 2008 itself or 2010 it would still continue with fgfa and amca projects.

Indian withdrawal from fgfa was based on lack of maturity of fgfa and lack of Indian work share.
It had nothing to do with rafale procurement.


Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Armand2REP]

Are you kidding? IAF funded fgfa with Russia .
Provided 250 million $ for development of a stealth bird. Amca project is in detailed design phase for a stealth fighter!!

You are not getting the point are you?
Let me simplify. Even if India had bought 126 mirages back in 2004 it still would have gone ahead with fgfa in 2007 as it eventually did.
Amca would still be approved.

Now India chose rafale as mirage was out of production. So even if India had bought 126 rafale in 2008 itself or 2010 it would still continue with fgfa and amca projects.

Indian withdrawal from fgfa was based on lack of maturity of fgfa and lack of Indian work share.
It had nothing to do with rafale procurement.


Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

You keep talking but there is still no RFI issued by the IAF that speaks of a "stealth" requirement. The only stealth aircraft they will buy is the AMCA because as we all know, the Su-57 isn't stealth.

 

[Longewala]

Btw about numbers. Pwc and imf numbers suggest that India will be 10 trillion economy by 2030 and atleast 16 trillion nominal by 2040.

For a 16-20 trillion economy to maintain a measly 800 fighter doesn't make sense.

Our defense budget could be 16*2/100=300 billion+ .
Logic dictates that IAF size should atleast double to 1500 fighters!!

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

Sir, looking at past trends by that time aircraft costs would have increased so much every major air force would only be able to afford one plane each.

 

[IndianHawk]

Sir, looking at past trends by that time aircraft costs would have increased so much every major air force would only be able to afford one plane each.

Yes military inflation grows rapidly. But we will be building 90% equipment indegeniosly and then there will be economy of scale production.

By 6th gen probably there will be less costly manned jets but more and more cheap drones connected to 6th gen birds .

By mass production a 5th gen f35 today costs less than an f15 today. So that may also happen.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[IndianHawk]

You keep talking but there is still no RFI issued by the IAF that speaks of a "stealth" requirement. The only stealth aircraft they will buy is the AMCA because as we all know, the Su-57 isn't stealth.

Are Bhai. If fgfa continued they'd issue RFI when the bird was to be mature for induction. It was joint project not a rafale like procurement.

Same for amca no need for RFI until the bird is ready it's a home production.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Defcon 1]

Good post.
Here is my argument.
Mmrca was originally supposed to replace mig29 , mirage etc. But now we have mwf for that . So I think mwf and rafale both together will replace them and hence 150 rafale won't come.
It may be 72 rafale ( 36 more)and then 200 mwf.

Even amca was initially supposed to replace jaguar and mig27 .

Su30 MKI will start retiring from 2040. Then we will need 300 5th gen birds so are all of them going to be amca?

Also more importantly is IAF willing to remain without a stealth fighter for an entire decade as amca won't come before 2030. And even then AMCA prototype will fly with current f414 but production series will require an uprated engine of 110kn class so it might delay the program.




Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

MMRCA was always a Mig27 replacement. We needed good ground strike aircraft and that is why went with Rafale. Mig29 and Mirages were expected to be replaced by AMCA and FGFA. MMRCA could not and still cannot replace Mig 29 because it is being procured much before Mig 29 retirement.

We already have orders for 36 Rafales and MMRCA 2.0 tender for 114 aircraft which Rafale is most likely to win, considering the exit polls that came in yesterday. Therefore I am seeing 150 Rafale in future unless something unexpected happens.

It is very difficult for me to speculate what happens after 2040 since there are zero facts to go on. However, if you ask my personal opinion, I see it very unlikely that we will be inducting Su57 post 2040 simply because there is nothing to be gained from it. Su57 is still not a proper stealth aircraft. It has exposed engine blades, protuding IRST, etc. India doesn't likes Russian electronics, we started using western electronics even on Russian aircraft. We already have offers for TOT and indigenous manufacturing from every weapons seller around the world. AMCA is expected to be better than Su57, so no point buying a inferior fighter.

In my opinion, if we import fighters after 2040, it could be in small number, primarily for high tech heavy aircraft requirement, similar to China's purchase of Su 35. If that happens, 6th gen aircraft will be the way to go.

 

[IndianHawk]

MMRCA was always a Mig27 replacement. We needed good ground strike aircraft and that is why went with Rafale. Mig29 and Mirages were expected to be replaced by AMCA and FGFA. MMRCA could not and still cannot replace Mig 29 because it is being procured much before Mig 29 retirement.

We already have orders for 36 Rafales and MMRCA 2.0 tender for 114 aircraft which Rafale is most likely to win, considering the exit polls that came in yesterday. Therefore I am seeing 150 Rafale in future unless something unexpected happens.

It is very difficult for me to speculate what happens after 2040 since there are zero facts to go on. However, if you ask my personal opinion, I see it very unlikely that we will be inducting Su57 post 2040 simply because there is nothing to be gained from it. Su57 is still not a proper stealth aircraft. It has exposed engine blades, protuding IRST, etc. India doesn't likes Russian electronics, we started using western electronics even on Russian aircraft. We already have offers for TOT and indigenous manufacturing from every weapons seller around the world. AMCA is expected to be better than Su57, so no point buying a inferior fighter.

In my opinion, if we import fighters after 2040, it could be in small number, primarily for high tech heavy aircraft requirement, similar to China's purchase of Su 35. If that happens, 6th gen aircraft will be the way to go.

I'm not arguing for su57 after 2040. More like by 2025 as a hedge for amca program.
It may also be true that IAF decided to hedge with rafale and go AMCA will be the only stealth bird.

I'm doubtful about 114 rafale as mwf has also ascended to medium weight category.

Even if contract for 114 rafale is signed in 2020 it will still take 3-4 years to set up manufacturing in India and produce the bird.
So any indian manufactured rafale will only come by 2024. On the other hand mwf is now also medium weight fighter which will provide 80% of rafale capabilities at much lesser pricing.

Mwf will be available by 2027-28 at the rate of 24/ year. If will have Indian ew sensor fusion , sfdr missile etc.

So I suspect iaf is going to replace all medium category birds with combination of rafale and mwf.
Mig 27 80 + jaguar 80+ mirage 50+ mig29 66= 300 birds that will be replaced by 36+36 rafale and 200+ mwf.

So more likely and financially viable scenario is ordering 36 more rafale to come between 2023-2026 and then moving on with mwf .

Govt went for 114 single engine tendor( Modi govt) because it didn't wanted to spend 30 billion on 126 rafale. I don't see that calculation Changing.
So it may be 72 rafale for 16 billion and then 200 mwf .

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[bhramos]

The test pilot called the main advantages of the Su-57.

Honored Test Pilot, Reserve Colonel Sergei Bogdan, who mastered 57 different types of aircraft, admitted that the Su-57 is the best machine in its practice. About it reports "Star".

 

[bhramos]

Assembly line of the first serial Su-57 to enter service in 2019 into #Russian Aerospace Forces

 

[bhramos]

KnAAZ is ready to begin mass production of the fifth generation fighter Su-57 May 29 #KnAAZ is fully prepared for start of serial production of 5th-gen fighter Su-57 - the first production vehicle will be transferred #Russian Air Force at end of 2019,

 

[Kumata]

Are you kidding? IAF funded fgfa with Russia .
Provided 250 million $ for development of a stealth bird. Amca project is in detailed design phase for a stealth fighter!!

Noob;s question - that we have paid 250 M $ to russians, what happens to this money post option out.. do we get back anything or it's all down the drain...

 

[IndianHawk]

Noob;s question - that we have paid 250 M $ to russians, what happens to this money post option out.. do we get back anything or it's all down the drain...

I don't think we directly paid to Russia. We might have funded laboratories in both Russia and India ( mostly in India) to work on various components of fgfa program.

So I guess most of the money would have been spent in India anyway which will help in amca project as same labs will deliver products/ research for amca.

What has gone in Russia we might research data worth that much. Some money could be re routed to other joint projects such as hypersonic bramhos and sfdr missile program.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[bhramos]

So no new orders till 2028!!!

Planes will be delivered until 2028.

The #Russian Defense Ministry will receive 76 multi-role fighters Su-57 as part of a contract with #Sukhoi company, Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov told reporters on Friday at #Army-2019 forum.