Storm warning: China is headed for an epic hard landing

Galaxy

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Talk to LETHALFORCE please. He was saying, China had a stock index drop so the 9% growth is fake.
I appreciate your elaboration. As I said, I am on your side. XD
He said because most of the internal economical data of China is hidden. So, Generally people do compare with Index to verify it. He is basically giving general perception.

But I do know about Chinese stock market. I gave reason also why it didn't performed well. Also, I am pessimist in very long term.
 
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CherrywoodHunter

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Stock market is usually a leading indicator of the economy looking 6-12 months down the road.
Again, you made an assumption that may not hold true. You assumed stock market index means the same in different countries. However, annual GDP vs stock market total value of USA is about 6:1, while that of China is only 1:2. The correlation between index number and economy of countries like USA is much stronger than that of China.
 

trackwhack

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1. SSE chart Jan 2011 - Jan 2012:

來個 PPT 短網址 :: on 縮圖剪剪樂!

2. Why should SSE behave in concert with other indices? SSE doubled in 2007 while the rest of the world didn't have major change.

1. You data is wrong. The first trading day of 2011 was Jan 4th. SSE closed at 2852. On Dec 30th it closed at 2199. Thats 23% drop as per the mathematics that I studied.

2. True about 2007, the question is why such a strong market has not recovered since 2008. Since it was leaving all other markets in the dust, I would assume it would have gone back to retain its preeminent position. Or was 2007 driven through more cooked numbers?

COOL STORY BRO

Here is a look at the 10 year Chart.

 
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CherrywoodHunter

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He said because most of the internal economical data of China is hidden. So, Generally people do compare with Index to verify it. He is basically giving general perception.

But I do know about Chinese stock market. I gave reason also why it didn't performed well. Also, I am pessimist in very long term.
That is not the case for China TBH. Stock market is not the central piece of Chinese economy. Stock market total value is trivial compared to the size of China economy. And many top companies, like China Mobile, are not listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen but in Hong Kong. Huawei is even not listed. Actually people usually use numbers like energy consumption and steel production for sanitary check of GDP data.
 

Galaxy

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That is not the case for China TBH. Stock market is not the central piece of Chinese economy. Stock market total value is trivial compared to the size of China economy. And many top companies, like China Mobile, are not listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen but in Hong Kong. Huawei is even not listed. Actually people usually use numbers like energy consumption and steel production for sanitary check of GDP data.
I never said, Stock market has any relation with economy on yoy basis. I'm aware of Shanghai comp. as well as HS. There were many reasons why it didn't performed.

Actually, Shanghai index is local index with many restriction and no one tracks it.

For China economy, Few things are known and few things are not unknown (Hidden). That is also one of the main reason why major foreign investors don't invest in Shanghai comp. HS is free market with transparency as well as different companies too, So FII's invest and market moves.
 
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CherrywoodHunter

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1. You data is wrong. The first trading day of 2011 was Jan 4th. SSE closed at 2852. On Dec 30th it closed at 2199. Thats 23% drop as per the mathematics that I studied.

2. True about 2007, the question is why such a strong market has not recovered since 2008. Since it was leaving all other markets in the dust, I would assume it would have gone back to retain its preeminent position. Or was 2007 driven through more cooked numbers?

COOL STORY BRO

Here is a look at the 10 year Chart.

1. As I indicated in my post, that's the newest data as of today (Jan 17, 2012), not the end of 2011.

2. 2007 GDP growth or any other major data didn't distinguish significantly. So your logic is flawed. If 2007 data could have driven an increase, why didn't we see similar increasing spikes before or after 2007?
 

trackwhack

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1. As I indicated in my post, that's the newest data as of today (Jan 17, 2012), not the end of 2011.

2. 2007 GDP growth or any other major data didn't distinguish significantly. So your logic is flawed. If 2007 data could have driven an increase, why didn't we see similar increasing spikes before or after 2007?
1. You first quoted your 16% number when talking about China 2011 GDP. You cannot use two different time frames when comparing data. And the newest data spikes it up because the SSE jumped 4.5% yesterday. Stop playing chicken with me, I follow the markets like a hawk.

2. I've not made any intepretations anywhere. So stop commenting on my logic. Maths says that at 8% growth, wealth should double in about 8 years. So the 200% rise in the Indian stock market is absolutely spot on in terms of reported GDP growth as shown in the above chart. Now compare that to the SSE performance. I know these are Index numbers, but the data is a mirror image of the larger market too. Chinese stock market capitalization is only being driven through IPO's and new money. There is absolutely no long term value creation if the entire market is taken. In the last decade, value has grown by about 60%.

Its another fact altogether that cheap money available in 2007 drove P/E ratio's on SSE to 30+ and then boom. Now watch out for the same story in other sectors. :)
 

CherrywoodHunter

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1. You first quoted your 16% number when talking about China 2011 GDP. You cannot use two different time frames when comparing data. And the newest data spikes it up because the SSE jumped 4.5% yesterday. Stop playing chicken with me, I follow the markets like a hawk.

2. I've not made any intepretations anywhere. So stop commenting on my logic. Maths says that at 8% growth, wealth should double in about 8 years. So the 200% rise in the Indian stock market is absolutely spot on in terms of reported GDP growth as shown in the above chart. Now compare that to the SSE performance. I know these are Index numbers, but the data is a mirror image of the larger market too. Chinese stock market capitalization is only being driven through IPO's and new money. There is absolutely no long term value creation if the entire market is taken. In the last decade, value has grown by about 60%.

Its another fact altogether that cheap money available in 2007 drove P/E ratio's on SSE to 30+ and then boom. Now watch out for the same story in other sectors. :)
1. Didn't I explicitly say that was Jan 2011 - Jan 2012? Many Indian posters here featured with wishful thinking augmented with data mining or manipulation on China-related topics, not Chinese posters.

2. "data is a mirror image of the larger market too", true, but don't forget size of sample data decides how reliable your statistics or your mirror is. As for small stock market of China, you can hardly find strong statistical correlation between stock index and economy.But you guys claim, or hint, that the GDP data of China is fake because China stock market, the mirror, didn't "perform well". Your logic IS FLAWED.

As another Chinese poster told you, why not just short China now? If you are confident that a hard landing is incoming, go ahead to short China. Money speaks louder than internet spamming.
 

trackwhack

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1. Didn't I explicitly say that was Jan 2011 - Jan 2012? Many Indian posters here featured with wishful thinking augmented with data mining or manipulation on China-related topics, not Chinese posters.

2. "data is a mirror image of the larger market too", true, but don't forget size of sample data decides how reliable your statistics or your mirror is. As for small stock market of China, you can hardly find strong statistical correlation between stock index and economy.But you guys claim, or hint, that the GDP data of China is fake because China stock market, the mirror, didn't "perform well". Your logic IS FLAWED.

As another Chinese poster told you, why not just short China now? If you are confident that a hard landing is incoming, go ahead to short China. Money speaks louder than internet spamming.
1. No, you did not. Refer post #60, you said. China 2011: 9.1% GDP growth, SSE 16% loss.

2. What nonsense are you talking about man. If you have the time, then extract data for all listed stocks in 2000 on the SSE and plot their performance. You will see returns below 60%. I did not make any such claim like you state. I said all markets more or less reflect their growth story as can be evidenced from data. EXCEPTION : CHINA

Enjoy your stay in Cukooland and keep playing with CCP datasheets. We will see who is left standing in the room when the shit hits the fan. And yes, it will. Adios.
 

no smoking

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1. No, you did not. Refer post #60, you said. China 2011: 9.1% GDP growth, SSE 16% loss.

2. What nonsense are you talking about man. If you have the time, then extract data for all listed stocks in 2000 on the SSE and plot their performance. You will see returns below 60%. I did not make any such claim like you state. I said all markets more or less reflect their growth story as can be evidenced from data. EXCEPTION : CHINA

Enjoy your stay in Cukooland and keep playing with CCP datasheets. We will see who is left standing in the room when the shit hits the fan. And yes, it will. Adios.
No, you don't have any idea of Chinese stock market.
It is not a market, it is a casino owned by CCP. Most of big fishs in that pool are state-own funds. So, CCP can make it up or down as it wishes.

You may ask if chinese public knows? Yes, we know for all the time. But we still come as everyone believe he or she is smarter than others.
Just as most of people loss to casino in most of time, but they still come back.

Before you understand this difference, whatever you talk about is just nonesense.
 

The Messiah

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I think greed is universal. But maybe you are an "exception". :confused:
Everyone has needs but when person gets excessive with his "needs" then it is called as greed. I have need for materials and money and i will work for it but i wont stop everything and only want materials and more money in my life. So no i wont be greedy.

In India there are many people who have left all worldly pleasures in spiritual pursuit.

You yourself are implying that chinese are more greedy.
 

mylegend

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70% of China's economy is dependent on USA. USA now wants to bring jobs back to US that is the theme of reelection by Obama let's see how things workout.
In fact, European Union is the biggest Chinese trading partner, your statement is not true.
 

mylegend

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look at your dollar and US treasury holding to get the real picture.
Remember that China does not hold much Euro, man, you are losing your mind. Dollar is the median of most international transaction...Research the data yourself to find out. European is indeed the biggest trading partner of China.
 
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Remember that China does not hold much Euro, man, you are losing your mind. Dollar is the median of most international transaction...Research the data yourself to find out. European is indeed the biggest trading partner of China.
That is not the point. Even if Europe is your biggest trade partner USA still pulls the strings.
 

mylegend

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That is not the point. Even if Europe is your biggest trade partner USA still pulls the strings.
Yes, US as a country is the biggest trading partner of China, of course it can influence China easily. However, keep in mind the number of Republican in the House, China is not in big trouble. I mean Romney, the Republican Presidential Candidate likely, onces works for Bain Capital, a Private Equity also have much investment in China... I believe both Romney and Obama are centrist that unlikely to counter China with strong action.
 
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