Something else made in China – Chinese GDP

[Iamanidiot]

FT.com Clippings - clip thisEmailDiggRedditLinkedInFacebookdeliciousMixxPropellerYahoo! BuzzstumbleupontwitterSharePrint
Something else made in China – Chinese GDP
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Dec 06 13:57.

Uh oh.

Wikileaks, fresh from angering US authorities, might be about to incur the wrath of China's economic establishment. The controversial site has published a US embassy cable containing comments made in 2007 by Li Keqiang — then head of the Communist Party in Liaoning and now the man some tip to become the PRC's next head of government.

The cable was published as part of last week's massive release of American diplomatic transcripts — and was just spotted by Malcolm Moore at the Telegraph.

The relevant bit of the cable, below:

Describing some of the challenges he faces as Party Secretary, Li related that despite brisk economic growth of SIPDIS 12.8 percent in 2006, Liaoning's income gaps remain severe. Liaoning ranks among the top 10 Chinese provinces in terms of per capita GDP, yet the number of its urban residents on welfare is among the highest in the country and average urban disposable income is below the national average. By contrast, rural disposable incomes are above the national average. Even so, incomes for Liaoning farmers are only half that of urban residents.

¶4. (C) GDP figures are "man-made" and therefore unreliable, Li said. When evaluating Liaoning's economy, he focuses on three figures: 1) electricity consumption, which was up 10 percent in Liaoning last year; 2) volume of rail cargo, which is fairly accurate because fees are charged for each unit of weight; and 3) amount of loans disbursed, which also tends to be accurate given the interest fees charged. By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth. All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are "for reference only," he said smiling.

Sheesh. All that's missing is a wink, wink, nudge, nudge.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/12/06/428061/something-else-made-in-china-chinese-gdp/


intresting leak

 

[Yusuf]

Nothing new for us isnt it. Thay have been cooking books and we all know that. Obviously paid chinese posters here will have another take on it as usual.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Yusuf we know they are being cooked.But we should exactly know how the cooking of books is done.Badguys parents home is a prime example .They are in a continuous exercise of building and rebuilding to sustain growth rates and most of the chinese growth is infrastructure derived

 

[Iamanidiot]

Hindustan times China's Correspondent blogs

HT Home / Blogs Home > Middle Order / China, Rest of Asia / Cost check
Cost check


0Share

2 Comments

Inflation in India is twice as high as the rate in China, but Beijing is more worried that the rising cost of food will threaten social stability. On the surface, China is making a more public display of seriousness in containing prices.

Have you seen a top Indian leader visit a Big Bazaar vegetable counter? We recently saw Premier Wen Jiabao, the face of Beijing's crisis management, discussing prices in a supermarket with the style of a leader talking to his mass base.

According to Reuters on Sunday, Wen checks the cost of rice, flour, pork and vegetables every morning.

"I've grasped from all my years of political life that there are two problems which can threaten social stability and even the steadiness of government. One is corruption, and the other is prices," Reuters reported his quotes from an online discussion in February.

The Chinese inflation rate of 4.4% is the highest in two years but half the rate in India. When I visit India every six months, I am struck by the weakening purchasing power of the rupee after paying for a restaurant meal or movie. But in China I am never weighed down with the overloaded shopping bags I carried after weekend grocery shopping in Mumbai.

Food prices in China, rising 60-70% according to some estimates, are way higher than in India and restaurants revise prices more frequently. My takeaway grilled vegetable sandwich just got costlier by four yuan (Rs 28). Recent visitors from India have expressed surprise that China is 'not cheap'.

I am not keeping close track of how India is managing inflation, but Beijing's flurry of control measures announced this month — release of food reserves, subsidies for low-income groups, cancelling highway tolls for food transport, monetary tightening — seem like more mass based responses. At least the incessant official media coverage of these measures makes it seem like a lot of action. Consumers are still discontented, cutting back, and even planting their own vegetables.

This week in one of China's poorest southwest province, days after the first cabinet price stabilisation orders rolled out, high school students shattered windows and overturned tables in a 20-minute protest against a price hike of about 0.5 yuan (Rs 3.50) in food and bottled water served at the boarding school canteen.

Principal Fan Guoqing told AFP that 10 to 20 students rampaged while many cheered them on. The public security officials were called in and the prices were reverted to the original.

"The students are mostly from poor families and will be not be held legally responsible," an official told the Global Times. The protest photographs swept the Internet and left officials worried about copycat unrest.

"Through this incident, I hope the country/government can reflect on itself," said an online comment from a student of the school.

In India, it is usually the opposition political parties that galvanise street marches over rising food prices. Inflation is a historic factor in sparking unrest in China. Today, most reported protests tend to be spontaneous, localised and small-scale. But the canteen rampage has caught the attention of officials and analysts. Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management with Renmin University, told the Global Times of a risk of imitation protests.

"Price inflation is not merely an economic matter. It is also political and social," Ma said. Beijing campuses have been reportedly ordered not to hike food prices.

http://blogs.hindustantimes.com/middle-order/2010/11/28/cost-check/#more-357


This shows that their inflation calculation index has a quite different basket of goods with consumer goods having minor weightage i think

 

[Ray]

I would like to believe that quite a few of the Chinese posters are not 'paid up' to spread disinformation and propaganda.

Even if they were, they would at least let us know the 'official view' of China.

That, too, would be education!

 

[tony4562]

18 million cars are projected to be sold in China this year, can you cook this? 2000 jetliners are flying in China, can you cook this? More than 50 million PC were sold in China last year alone, can you cook this?

Then how much truth there is to India's numbers. Wasn't just couple months ago there was a huge controversy regarding India's GDP figures?

Don't you think any statistical numbers from a country where election votes take 2 months to count, should automatically be taken with a grain of salt?

 

[Ray]

Don't you think any statistical numbers from a country where election votes take 2 months to count, should automatically be taken with a grain of salt?

Indeed it does.

It is not a totalitarian regime, where the Boss' word is all empowering and there can be no dispute.

The election has to be done in phases.

Counting and recounting is done.

In case of those standing for election wanting a recount, it means more delay.

And the phases of elections are not done in one go, or in successive go's. Huge administrative moves of security forces, administrative staff etc have to take place. Therefore, there is a cognizable gap between the phases,

Hence, two months itself is too quick!

 

[Ray]

18 million cars are projected to be sold in China this year, can you cook this? 2000 jetliners are flying in China, can you cook this? More than 50 million PC were sold in China last year alone, can you cook this?

Is that very difficult in China?

Now, did these chaps not cook the books in China?

Two Chinese executed for fraud

If Yan can cook, so can you!

 

[tony4562]

40% of Mumbai's population live in slums (not I want to bring this up, just to make a point), most of them wandering around in the streets just trying to secure the next meal, for me any economic figures about them are pretty much meaningless. And Mumbai is the face of India, so you figure how much worth are the stats about India's economy.

 

[tony4562]

Indians often accuse China playing the number game and cooking up stats, but in truth is no one cares more about GDP figure than the indians themselves. When sales of cars, computers, houses and everything else including food items only linger at a fraction of China's, its doesn't matter whether you have a trillion dollar GDP or a 10 trillion dollar GDP.

 

[Yusuf]

40% of Mumbai's population live in slums (not I want to bring this up, just to make a point), most of them wandering around in the streets just trying to secure the next meal, for me any economic figures about them are pretty much meaningless. And Mumbai is the face of India, so you figure how much worth are the stats about India's economy.

Dharavi the largest slum in the world has a thriving billion dollar economy. In India things dont get reported. If you actually count everything, Indias GDP might just double. Tax evasion is rampant in our country. People cook their books to under report.

 

[anoop_mig25]

18 million cars are projected to be sold in China this year, can you cook this? 2000 jetliners are flying in China, can you cook this? More than 50 million PC were sold in China last year alone, can you cook this?

yes most of this stuff are bought by government of china so thats its machineary keep working. government money remains with itself only

its same way as DLF developers sold their fully prepared buldings/various projects to DLF assets (of -course that happened durning slowdown of world economy)

 

[badguy2000]

well,of course there is something strange with Chinese caculation of GDP . it has been discussed many times long ago.

During cold war,west countries(capitalst bloc) used SNA to measure economy scale with "GDP";
however, east countries(communist bloc) used MPS to measue economy scale with "Gross output vlaue of industry and agricuture",because Karl Marx didn't acknowlege that sevice section could create wealth.

As one member of east block,the caculation of Chinese GDP once used MPS too,but after 1980, CHina gradually converted to SNA.
However, due to the tradition and some reason, the convertion is not so complete.in fact, today, the caculation of CHinese GDP is a mixture of MPS and SNA.

Thus, the caculation of Chinese GDP is quite unique ,which quite different from west's and India's. It causes that CHinese service section is seriously underestimated. the total Chinese GDP is also underesitmated.

so, case is that GDP itself is not a good indication to measure economy!

 

[badguy2000]

Is that very difficult in China?

Now, did these chaps not cook the books in China?

Two Chinese executed for fraud

If Yan can cook, so can you!

guy, really life quality talks louder than anything economy indication.渗透率

penetrating rate of the household appliances such as AC .TV sets, washing machines,houses and cars can be a better indication to measure real life quality than per capital GDP.

Yankees commons can afford cars more easily than CHinese common, almost every Yankee family own 2 cars or more while maybe only 2/10 of Chinese families own cars.so yankees are richer than CHinese.

so is the comparation of Chinese and Indians..

 

[Yusuf]

guy, really life quality talks louder than anything economy indication.渗透率

penetrating rate of the household appliances such as AC .TV sets, washing machines,houses and cars can be a better indication to measure real life quality than per capital GDP.

Yankees commons can afford cars more easily than CHinese common, almost every Yankee family own 2 cars or more while maybe only 2/10 of Chinese families own cars.so yankees are richer than CHinese.

so is the comparation of Chinese and Indians..

I dont think the topic is about comparing anyone US with China or China with India. Its about cooking books. So dont derail the thread with your usual rants. It may be true that China is progressing rapidly, but it may be not be as rapid as it is shown.

 

[Daredevil]

And what does ghost cities and ghost malls in China talk about??

Forget Empty Housing Developments, Check Out The Massively Empty Cities Of China

The Other Side Of China's 8% GDP "Growth": Ghost Cities


China's Empty Cities http://www.buyric.com/news/china/china-massive-government-stimulus-equals-empty-cities-027/

 

[badguy2000]

I dont think the topic is about comparing anyone US with China or China with India. Its about cooking books. So dont derail the thread with your usual rants. It may be true that China is progressing rapidly, but it may be not be as rapid as it is shown.

well, it is arguable if Chinese GDP can reflect how Chinese economy go,just as I posted long ago.

But it is not even worth refuing to argue if Chinese fast economy growth is cooked,because Chinese economy miracle is not only on books ,but aso in our daily life.


"made in CHina" in Your daily life talk louder than any economy theory.

well, all I want to say is that :

In one decade or so, CHina will be a complete industrialized country,with a mature urbanized society.

Every common Chinese family will also own their cars and moder houses ,as common families in EU and North America.
Furthermore, China common will have chance to enjoy some more advanced infrastructure than people in EU and North America,such as highspeed railway.

At that time,nobody will care GDP.

 

[Yusuf]

well, it is arguable if Chinese GDP can reflect how Chinese economy go,just as I posted long ago.

But it is not even worth refuing to argue if Chinese fast economy growth is cooked,because Chinese economy miracle is not only on books ,but aso in our daily life.


"made in CHina" in Your daily life talk louder than any economy theory.

Right then why cook the books? For some false pride? Gives a kick eh?

Made in china means cheap stuff in India and thats why lots of smart people print made in Japan or Germany even when they import from China.

 

[badguy2000]

Right then why cook the books? For some false pride? Gives a kick eh?

Made in china means cheap stuff in India and thats why lots of smart people print made in Japan or Germany even when they import from China.

guy. it is hard to tell whether Chinese GDP is overesitmated or underesimated.

some guys tend to cook GDP ,such as local government officials, because higher growth can bring more chance of promotion for them.

however, some guys tend to "hide revenues" ,such as private enterprises,because it can bring down tax for them.

Besides, the caculation of Chinese GDP is a unique mixture of MPS and SNA,and naturelly tend to ignore service section.

So, Chinese GDP is the balance of above factors.

BTW,judging from what I can feel myself, I tend to think that Chinese GDP in fact is serious underestimated.especially service section in China are seriously ignored. that is why service section is only less 40% of Chinese GDP,according to Chinese official data.

 

[Ray]

40% of Mumbai's population live in slums (not I want to bring this up, just to make a point), most of them wandering around in the streets just trying to secure the next meal, for me any economic figures about them are pretty much meaningless. And Mumbai is the face of India, so you figure how much worth are the stats about India's economy.

It is true that people live in slums.

However, to feel that they are roaming around trying to secure a meal indicates that you do not know Mumbai.

Mumbai is not the face of India. Rural India is!

The other thing that you will not understand is the power of religion.Spiritual happiness is more sought after in India than mere creature comforts and money.

Here is what you describe the slum of Mumbai:

Dharavi stretched before us like a vast junkyard, a hodgepodge of brick and concrete tenements roofed with corrugated metal sheets that gleamed dully in the sunshine. Poojari gave us a moment to take it all in. "We'll show you the positive side of a slum," he declared.

In the face of such squalor, his words seemed jarring. But Dharavi's industriousness is well documented. Its businesses manufacture a variety of products—plastics, pottery, bluejeans, leather goods—and generate an estimated $665 million in annual revenue. In other words, Dharavi is not just a slum, it is also a node on the global economy.

Dharavi's industries are arranged geographically, like medieval guilds, and the first alley we visited belonged to recyclers. In one small "godown" (as warehouses are known on the subcontinent), men were disassembling old computer keyboards. In another, men smeared from head to toe in blue ink stripped the casings from used ballpoint pens so they could be melted down and recycled. A few doors down, workers used heavy chains to knock the residue from steel drums that had once contained polyester resin. Poojari told us that some of Dharavi's empty plastic bottles come from as far away as the United Kingdom. "People from a rich family, when they drink from a plastic bottle, they don't know what happens to it afterwards," he said. "Here, you see." (link)

And it continues in that vein: Dharavi as a hive of light industrial activity. He acknowledges the smell, the open sewage, and the crampedness, but he doesn't dwell on those things so much. And he ends with a telling reflection:

No one gave us a second glance, and I had to wonder about the motives of those in the Indian media and elsewhere who claimed on behalf of the Dharavi residents to be offended by the tours. Surely their ire could have been better targeted at the municipal authorities who had failed to provide the community with basic sanitation. I wondered whether the critics weren't simply embarrassed by the slum's glaring poverty—an image at odds with the country's efforts to rebrand itself as a big software park. In any case, it seemed to me that the purpose of the tour was not to generate pity, but understanding. That's not to say that it made me an expert—I was only there a few hours, after all. Were the people I saw in Dharavi the victims of globalization, or its beneficiaries? I still don't know. But at least the question had been raised in my mind.(link)
Smithsonian Magazine

Jai Ho!