Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by t_co, May 6, 2014.
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What you might find interesting is that China's massive infrastructure investment package was first floated through a backchannel to Modi, and not to the Indian government. A few weeks ago, a Singaporean diplomat (who I will not name) disclosed that the backchannel was none other than Gautam Adani.
Modi's policies are unlikely to be China centric. Unless of course Modi decides to sell India Treasury bonds on the lines of US Treasury bonds, and China buys them with same enthusiasm as they have been buying US bonds for the last twelve years. Then India has the money and Chinese have India's pledge to return money in one form or other (same pledge as US has given to China).
My China friend above should run this proposal by Singapore diplomat and watch what comes out of his thinking.
Then again today's China is built by US with FDI, investments, better currency exchange rate etc. India is not going to be that lucky. As an alternative India bond sale is a better idea and China is familiar with it.
To me, it will never be a surprise, typical of a Gujju, he is diehard pro-business. If he gets to be the PM, businesses in India, and foreign investments into the country will grow at significantly higher pace than have so far.
The other, that I am pretty certain of, India will end up having way better relations with both the US, and China over the next 5 years. Modi is a very pragmatic person, he realises well where the goodies for the country lie, and he would chase them.
The good thing about a hardened exterior is that people and countries do not take you for granted, which is what was happening with the successive Congress governments. They were always perceived as weak, and government most of the time internationally ended up getting side kicks. We had a PM, who let alone making a speech in Arunachal, would end-up cancelling his programs to the state because that might upset the government of China.
I would love to see the military take over in Pakistan, a civilian government there, and Modi in India is not a good news. Civilian government will always be undermined in Pakistan on their initiatives towards India, so it was better India gets to deal with the military directly.
Economics and economic cooperation will undoubtedly be the linchpin of BJP's foreign policy strategy.They showed it with their last tenure that they don't carry the historical baggage in the same manner a Congress led would. As such I do expect China-India economic relationships to improve on the economic front.
But depending on the situation, that is both a good and an extremely bad. The BJP doesn't carry the dead weight of 1962 defeat. It is that fear that has prevented India from reacting aggressively to perceived Chinese hostile actions.
As such if any such incident does erupt after their ascendancy to power, The Indian response will be quite vigorous. I do hope that CCP recalculates their strategy. There won't be much of a tolerance for Chinese belligerence
Modi wants to avenge US snub with greater ties with China and Russia. What you could expect if Modi comes to power:
Russia-China-India energy corridor: An oil and gas pipeline network between the three countries
China-India railway: A railway line between China and India, with a gauge interchange hub on the border (since China and India have different railway gauges).
China-India-West Coast transit: Transit of shipping containers over railway from China to India's western ports (JNPT and Kochi), and onwards to middle east and Europe, reducing transit over the Malay peninsula.
Electricity trade between China and India (purchase of surplus electricity from Chinese grid)
Chinese white-box foundries setting up facilities in India
Sensible dialog over disputed borders without 1961 baggage and pointless jingoism
Deeming Kailash Mansarovar shrine in Tibet as an SAR, with easy visa regime for Indian pilgrims, and increased facilities for tourists (hotels, hospitals, shopping, etc.)
Reduction of Chinese affinity for Pakistan
Indian permanent membership of SCO
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