Say no to nuclear arms race : Pakistani Defence Analyst | idrw.org
SOURCE: THE NATION PK
The annual Strategic Survey of IISS, released few weeks ago speculated increased risk of a nuclear exchange between Indian and Pakistan, in case a conflict escalates into a war between these states. The report cites Pakistani low yield short range nuclear warheads (also called as Tactical Nuclear Weapons) as the main cause of instability in the region. Interestingly the report stops short of elaborating on other causes of growing instability and arms race in South Asia which can be enumerated as Indian hegemonic designs, its obstinate attitude over Kashmir and an obsession for increasing its nuclear and missile arsenals.
The South Asian nuclear rivals have fought three major wars before acquiring the nuclear capability, and since 1998, both had narrowly averted war at least on two occasions while sitting eyeball to eyeball along the international border and LOC. Not only Kashmir issue along with numerous other controversial matters had made peace hostage in the region but the persistent Indian stubbornness and refusal to address these problems prescribe a dim prognosis for the future as well. Worst still is the Indian obsession of acquiring high-tech military hardware which could profoundly upset the strategic equilibrium in the region as recently been noticed by Hans M. Kristensen in a blog maintained by Federation of American Scientists.
According to Kristensen, development of new multiple deliverable warheads through Agni V advanced version by India (also named as Agni VI or Agni V-Plus by some Indian scientists) is a departure from the "so-called minimum credible deterrence doctrine which would almost certainly trigger counter-steps in Pakistan and China."
According to Indian sources, Agni V is capable of delivering multiple (4 to 6 depending on the yield and size) warheads. Such a capability would drastically impinge upon the already delicate nuclear balance between South Asian neighbours. South Asian regional balance pivots around the nuclear parity between India and Pakistan as the later is unable to match former's conventional superiority. Consequently, Pakistani reliance on nuclear deterrence even against Indian conventional proactive cold start doctrine although looks disquieting but explicable.
The prevalent balance of terror between the South Asian nuclear rivals however, doesn't rule out escalation of a crisis which apparently seems to be a plausible outcome due to prolonged unsettled disputes. A successful militant operation against any strategic Indian installation or a major terrorist act on Indian soil runs risk of escalating into a conventional war. With ready to launch nuclear capable missiles at a short notice on both sides, the conflict pattern may not follow the escalatory ladder of 16 rungs as described by Herman Khan, thus may transform into a full scale war in a one rung escalation plausibly involving nuclear weapons.
It is also possible that the Indian military planners, with or without the consent of Indian political leadership, might be postulating to test their nascent proactive cold start doctrine under a nuclear hangover. Resultantly, the continuous Indian provocations across the LOC need to be taken seriously by the international community which could result into unintended consequences. Such dangerous manoeuvres could again be a recipe for a nuclear disaster in South Asia which the Indian military and political leaders need to understand.
While continuing with the human rights violations in Kashmir, diverting water resources of Pakistan and allegedly supporting terrorist outfits in Pakistan doesn't hold any chance of bringing peace and stability in the region, but rather would fuel more rage and anger providing additional motivational factors for external and internal militant groups and organizations to avenge the grievances through undesirable acts. The world community needs to persuade the Indian policymakers to review such dangerous and uncanny policy parameters which could have disastrous consequences for the whole region and might ignite a new nuclear arms race in South Asia.
The writer holds M.Phil degree in Strategic and Nuclear Studies from NDU, Islamabad.