Role of Bangladesh in any future Sino Indian War

[Yusuf]

While i the other thread is running and things are being discussed there, i was thinking what role would Bangladesh play in a future Sino Indian war.

Points to think about are:

1) Will it serve or will india use it as strategic depth in the event of a massive chinese invasion that forces us to retreat? Will BD allow that?

2) Even if there is no massive invasion that forces us to retreat but China does manage to choke us at chickens neck and cutting off NE from rest of India, will BD allow its territory to be used for logistics?

3) In the event of BD deciding to stay "neutral" and not allowing India space in the above two scenarios. will India violate BD airspace to supply NE or actually invade BD to "buy" space?

4) Will China use its increasing cozyness with BD to pre supply front organizations with war supply close to Indian border esp Assam which could be used if they mount an airborne assault.

I think if there is any major hostilities between India and China, the role of BD could be pretty crucial.

 

[pmaitra]

BD has in its best interests to be neutral. I don't blame them for that.

If Sheikh Hasina is at helm, they will at least verbally or diplomatically support our territorial integrity. If Khaleda Zia is at helm, they will definitely tow the PRC line.

While i the other thread is running and things are being discussed there, i was thinking what role would Bangladesh play in a future Sino Indian war.

Points to think about are:

1) Will it serve or will india use it as strategic depth in the event of a massive chinese invasion that forces us to retreat? Will BD allow that?

I wonder how much of a strategic depth India has. Unless BD itself is threatened, this is unlikely.

2) Even if there is no massive invasion that forces us to retreat but China does manage to choke us at chickens neck and cutting off NE from rest of India, will BD allow its territory to be used for logistics?

A Sheikh Hasina government might, but definitely not Khaleda Zia government.

3) In the event of BD deciding to stay "neutral" and not allowing India space in the above two scenarios. will India violate BD airspace to supply NE or actually invade BD to "buy" space?

Of course. There will be a tacit understanding and flow of money to BD where India will violate thier airspace and BD will publicly complain but things might work out.

4) Will China use its increasing cozyness with BD to pre supply front organizations with war supply close to Indian border esp Assam which could be used if they mount an airborne assault.

I don't think PRC will risk doing that. Also, it is a logistical pain for them.

I think if there is any major hostilities between India and China, the role of BD could be pretty crucial.

Not much really.

 

[Ray]

While i the other thread is running and things are being discussed there, i was thinking what role would Bangladesh play in a future Sino Indian war.

Points to think about are:

1) Will it serve or will india use it as strategic depth in the event of a massive chinese invasion that forces us to retreat? Will BD allow that?

2) Even if there is no massive invasion that forces us to retreat but China does manage to choke us at chickens neck and cutting off NE from rest of India, will BD allow its territory to be used for logistics?

3) In the event of BD deciding to stay "neutral" and not allowing India space in the above two scenarios. will India violate BD airspace to supply NE or actually invade BD to "buy" space?

4) Will China use its increasing cozyness with BD to pre supply front organizations with war supply close to Indian border esp Assam which could be used if they mount an airborne assault.

I think if there is any major hostilities between India and China, the role of BD could be pretty crucial.

There are three/ four scenarios.

1. Bangladesh is totally neutral.
2. Bangladesh pro India.
3. Bangladesh remains neutral but is pro China.
4. Bangladesh actively assists China.

If Bangladesh is totally neutral, then there is no cause for concern.

Bangladesh cannot remain neutral and yet be pro India, and so, that scenario is not being considered.

If Bangladesh is pro India (rather remote given the fear psychosis they are gripped with), then the advantage is that the movement of war matériels to include troops will be faster and operational flexibility in switching forces in realtime very conducive.

If Bangladesh is neutral and is pro China, and if Chinese are allowed to operate through Bangladesh, then there is a problem as it will threaten the Siliguri Corridor as also open up a front to the rear of the NE forces. However, while one cannot crystal ball gaze, such a scenario will bring in Western Powers, initially to warn China as also Bangladesh since it will be catastrophic for the West (economically and strategically) to allow any area of India to fall into enemy hands.

However, the movement of Chinese forces into Bangladesh will have to be through the raillink they are aiming to build through Myanmar to Bangladesh or through the sea link from the port in Myanmar. Sea link through the Malacca straits will be effectively blocked by India off Anadamans. Using of Myanmar's facilities for Chinese troop movement is also a moot point. Add Pakistan to the fray and it will be a very interesting scenario inviting a war with many countries involved on both sides and so, the chance of such a 'ganging up' against India will be a rare thing. Why so is because the western countries would not find it comfortable for India to be nibbled at in a cognisable manner since it would not be in their strategic interest. Further, India has its own 'strategic' options, if the situation comes from push to shove.

Bangladesh actively assisting China will have the same situation as above.

Given the Indian deployment, it is not feasible for China to capture territory on its own to threaten the Siliguri Corridor.

Chinese deploying AB troops or any troops in Bangladesh will have alarm bells ringing and Bangladesh's neck will also be wringing!

 

[ejazr]

BD is not important only in terms of a Sino-Indian conflict but as a major building bloc in an overall success of the South East Asian India policy.

Given the present cordial relations between India and BD, I think the role Myanmar will play and is playing is of more concern in the eastern sector. While BD is clearing its territory of anti-Indian insurgents, Myanmar has been slow in responding. But again, India needs to engage Myanmar and this will require BD to be a building bloc here. Eventually forming some sort of Bay of Bengal security initiative using say BIMSTEC as a platform to deter any mischief in this region by external power including China.

Hence, the need to sort out things like the transit issues and Teesta water treaty to make the cost of taking an anti-Indian stance unacceptable to BD and to interlock BD in economic and regional integration with India that both BD and Indian security becomes indistinguishable for BD.

 

[Adux]

"The last time the Chinese came, they stayed a thousand years. The French are foreigners. They are weak. Colonialism is dying. The white man is finished in Asia. But if the Chinese stay now, they will never go. As for me, I prefer to sniff French shit for five years than to eat Chinese shit for the rest of my life."—Hồ Chí Minh, 1946

I think the Bangladeshi's are quite aware of this.

 

[Poseidon]

Bangladesh will most likely remain neutral.Please don't go by bangladeshi posters in other forums.
The real concern that China may use Nepal or Bhutan as gateways to attack us, the terrain may not be very favorable.

 

[The Messiah]

It would be blessing in disguise if they are pro china because then we can snatch away there land in the end and bomb them to shit. What defenses to they have ?

 

[Bangalorean]

They will not be pro-China for sure, but I don't see them allowing India to make use of BD territory for military ops. That is not going to happen.

 

[agentperry]

it depends on the govt in dhaka. worse part is that they can just create some panic by mobilizing forces along the border. and best situation canbe that they talk on India's behalf in international forum.

nothing more or less can be expected from BD

 

[Yusuf]

Will india violate BD airspace then?

The scenario is that India is desperate to send supplies to NE and chickens neck has fallen. We have to reinforce at all cost.
Neutral, pro or anti, will India send supplies overflying BD with may be fighter escort if necessary with a mandate to take action if threatened?

 

[agentperry]

Will india violate BD airspace then?

The scenario is that India is desperate to send supplies to NE and chickens neck has fallen. We have to reinforce at all cost.
Neutral, pro or anti, will India send supplies overflying BD with may be fighter escort if necessary with a mandate to take action if threatened?

the terms with myanmar are very good. the multi modal inland waterway India is making in myanmar is in progress and in future the dependency on chicken neck and BD will wither away.

 

[Dovah]

Well, Bangladesh shares no border with China but they do share border with Myanmar, we'd be better off courting Myanmar and take Bangladesh out of the equation all together.

 

[Param]

Will india violate BD airspace then?

The scenario is that India is desperate to send supplies to NE and chickens neck has fallen. We have to reinforce at all cost.
Neutral, pro or anti, will India send supplies overflying BD with may be fighter escort if necessary with a mandate to take action if threatened?

Ofcourse. Who gives a Damn about BD when we are on the verge of losing the NE?

 

[Ray]

BD is not important only in terms of a Sino-Indian conflict but as a major building bloc in an overall success of the South East Asian India policy.

Given the present cordial relations between India and BD, I think the role Myanmar will play and is playing is of more concern in the eastern sector. While BD is clearing its territory of anti-Indian insurgents, Myanmar has been slow in responding. But again, India needs to engage Myanmar and this will require BD to be a building bloc here. Eventually forming some sort of Bay of Bengal security initiative using say BIMSTEC as a platform to deter any mischief in this region by external power including China.

Hence, the need to sort out things like the transit issues and Teesta water treaty to make the cost of taking an anti-Indian stance unacceptable to BD and to interlock BD in economic and regional integration with India that both BD and Indian security becomes indistinguishable for BD.

Myanmar's Head of State, Senior General Than Shwe visited India from 25 to 29 July 2010. This was a religious cum official visit. He came with a big entourage of ministers, officials and family members. This was his second visit to India – the first one was in October 2004........

The highlights of the Joint Statement issued by the Ministry of External affairs on 27 July which summarises the issues discussed, agreements made and the concessions extended to Myanmar are:

The Indian side agreed to consider Myanmar's request for assistance in the three areas namely: IT development, Industrial development and Infrastructure development in Myanmar.
Construction and revamping of the Rhi-Tiddim road at a cost of more than US$ 60 million.
Grant of US$ 10 million for procurement of agricultural machinery from India.
The two leaders agreed to cooperate in the implementation of the Tamanthi and Shwezaye projects on the Chindwin River Basin in Myanmar.
The Myanmar side conveyed their gratitude for India's line of credit of US$ 64 million in the transmission lines sector to be executed through M/s. PGCIL.
The two leaders agreed to upgrade the microwave link between Moreh to Mandalay under a line of credit of US$ 6 million from India.
The restoration of the historic Ananda temple in Bagan to be undertaken with the assistance of the Archaeological Survey of India, with the involvement of the Ministry of Culture of Myanmar.

The following agreements signed between India and Myanmar by different ministers/officials of the two sides were also witnessed by Chairman, State Peace and Development Council of Myanmar, Senior General Than Shwe and Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.

Treaty on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters
Memorandum of Understanding regarding Indian Grant Assistance for Implementation of Small Development Projects
Agreement on Cooperation in the fields of Science and Technology
Memorandum of understanding on Information Cooperation
Memorandum of understanding for the Conservation and Restoration of the Ananda Temple in Bagan

Myanmar: Than Shwe's Visit To India

 

[Ray]

Bangladesh will most likely remain neutral.Please don't go by bangladeshi posters in other forums.
The real concern that China may use Nepal or Bhutan as gateways to attack us, the terrain may not be very favorable.

Nepal won't allow willingly since it is totally dependant on India for its economic survival as also employment to a great degree.

Bhutan has a mutual defence agreement with India.

 

[Tshering22]

While i the other thread is running and things are being discussed there, i was thinking what role would Bangladesh play in a future Sino Indian war.


Points to think about are:

1) Will it serve or will india use it as strategic depth in the event of a massive chinese invasion that forces us to retreat? Will BD allow that?

First of all, there won't be a "massive Chinese invasion". More than 75% of their military is focused on their eastern sector including infrastructure since they're shyte scared of a NATO attack from the east using South Korea and Japan as a launch pad, despite having such an economic binding with the West. Very limited of their military is stationed here. The reason why 62 was different was because US and Japanese were focused on a simmering Korea that had just calmed down and Chinese had ample time. This time it is not so. Not that US will attack for any crazy reason but that's what makes tyrannical Communist dictators a laughing stock; endless paranoia.

This "massive invasion" would become their stepping on land mine because being almost zero-equipped last time and more than halfway through this time would change the whole game.

Regarding BD, it really depends on their wobbly politics really if you ask me. Awami League can be secretively supportive to us allowing our military to build secondary bases in their north and northeastern country alongside Meghalaya to acquire readiness to fight off. If BNP & Jamaatis come to power, they will provide shelter to our terrorists and unleash them as a distraction for our military. Since their military is only for fancy and not for action that would not be used.

2) Even if there is no massive invasion that forces us to retreat but China does manage to choke us at chickens neck and cutting off NE from rest of India, will BD allow its territory to be used for logistics?

Can't. The chicken's neck is the area that is heavily militarized away from the eyes of people. It doesn't seem to open but there is more military presence than the deceptive appearance of that region on India's map. Add to the fact that the PLA troops will be walking straight into an ambush trap as soldiers posted here in NE will surround them using Bhutan's and Nepal's impossible geographical terrain and it will be a bloodbath for any Red regiment that attempts such a disaster. It might sound surprising but this is an unsaid political secret; we DO have such pacts with Nepal and Bhutan. It is a part of the OPEN BORDERS agreement in exchange of strategic favors. Any problem to our east means Bhutan will automatically be threatened, which means additional military activity and depth. Consider this to the unfriendly, disgruntled and pissed off local population in Tibet from where most Chinese will be operating.

3) In the event of BD deciding to stay "neutral" and not allowing India space in the above two scenarios. will India violate BD airspace to supply NE or actually invade BD to "buy" space?

It will be a political threat mate. If they refuse our jets from overpassing them, we will shut down their access to the entire world. WE happen to be surrounding them. All ports, air routes, rail networks to rest of the world from Bangladesh will be blocked. That threat itself would make them realize where they stand.

4) Will China use its increasing cozyness with BD to pre supply front organizations with war supply close to Indian border esp Assam which could be used if they mount an airborne assault.

Possible for Reds to try that but Assam is heavily militarized today. It will be terrible if BD tries something foolish to curry favor from the Coms, as Coms might move away forgetting them but BD will deal with our displeasure.

Let me clear something bhai; airborne operations are very very difficult in this region. That's why Himalayas has such an important role as a natural shield for us. AB ops by EITHER side on the other sides of Himalayas would be very very difficult. Infrastructure is fine upto northern Arunachal and north Sikkim, but the airspace between that and China is SO hostile that it would create havoc for transport aircraft on both sides. Half the PLA troops would snuff it just on failed airborne ops.

I think if there is any major hostilities between India and China, the role of BD could be pretty crucial.

Possible. But apart from Bhutan and Nepal who cannot avoid the situation because of their location, other countries in the region will try to escape as much as possible from the scenario at least in the open.

A battle between the Tiger and the Dragon would be too nasty for any tiny entity to intervene.

 

[Sabir]

Problem is not what government of BD will do. Danger is from the Islamic groups there which have close tie with ISI. Surely they will be funded beforehand to infiltrate in strategic areas in Indian territory to sabotage our deployment. We need to concentrate on them, if possible eliminate them before a Kargil like situation arrives. Remember, China will not be that easy customer to go back after a warning from America.