Repeat of 26/11 will lead to war : experts

Indx TechStyle

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Any war's unlikely to go in favour of Pakistan given growing gaps of power. 10 years later may be, Pakistan will become more submissive. Armed forces are stronger than they we're ever before.

But in case India initiating war, external & internal pressure will bother a lot. Specially external. India's recovering economy will slow down to a great extent again and still Pakistan will be saved by west & communists given that it ensures that India remains busy inside subcontinent only.
 

G10

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All these rumblings have no meaning. Congress was forced to suspend talks with pak even after 26/11. If india really had spine Pakistan would gave been taken down during kargil war itself.
 

abingdonboy

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Yeah no. We all know Indian leadership doesn’t have the b@lls.
 

republic_roi97

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Watch this, don't you guys want us to achieve that ? We will achieve all that much earlier if everything goes as fast as its going.
 

Haldiram

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But in case India initiating war, external & internal pressure will bother a lot. Specially external.
After 26/11, all the Indian industrialists went to the government to warn them of the loss of economic potential if a war takes place. It's always the internal pressure that stops a country from going to war. The politicians have nothing to lose. It's the people who have to make up their mind. If the people themselves are war averse, the politicians aren't going to go against the grain.

We should keep growing the power differential for the next 10 years, then, one fine day, when all the preparations are done, just do a small false flag somewhere and march the army into Pakistan. We need not wait for Pakistan's cue to launch a war. We will launch it when it is convenient to us. If it looks like the global economy and exports are going to be in a slump in the coming years, then we might as well launch the attack tomorrow. If it seems like we could benefit from a decade of prosperity, then we can postpone it.
 

ezsasa

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After 26/11, all the Indian industrialists went to the government to warn them of the loss of economic potential if a war takes place. It's always the internal pressure that stops a country from going to war. The politicians have nothing to lose. It's the people who have to make up their mind. If the people themselves are war averse, the politicians aren't going to go against the grain.

We should keep growing the power differential for the next 10 years, then, one fine day, when all the preparations are done, just do a small false flag somewhere and march the army into Pakistan. We need not wait for Pakistan's cue to launch a war. We will launch it when it is convenient to us. If it looks like the global economy and exports are going to be in a slump in the coming years, then we might as well launch the attack tomorrow. If it seems like we could benefit from a decade of prosperity, then we can postpone it.
Just curious!!!!

Is there proof or press statement or oped that Indian industrialists went to government and told them not to go to war.

These days I am rechecking every information which I had taken for granted, especially past events.

I bet that this time industrialists won’t stop govt this time, now they are more integrated into military industrial complex than before. Now they will gain from war, not loose.
 

Anikastha

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After 26/11, all the Indian industrialists went to the government to warn them of the loss of economic potential if a war takes place. It's always the internal pressure that stops a country from going to war. The politicians have nothing to lose. It's the people who have to make up their mind. If the people themselves are war averse, the politicians aren't going to go against the grain.

We should keep growing the power differential for the next 10 years, then, one fine day, when all the preparations are done, just do a small false flag somewhere and march the army into Pakistan. We need not wait for Pakistan's cue to launch a war. We will launch it when it is convenient to us. If it looks like the global economy and exports are going to be in a slump in the coming years, then we might as well launch the attack tomorrow. If it seems like we could benefit from a decade of prosperity, then we can postpone it.
Today Corporate chaps are not allowing Govt. to declare war because they will lose $$$. How do you think they will let happen after we become economic power.
 

Anikastha

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I bet that this time industrialists won’t stop govt this time, now they are more integrated into military industrial complex than before. Now they will gain from war, not loose.
That may possible if government is buying stuff made in India rather than than importing.
 

Indrajit

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Just curious!!!!

Is there proof or press statement or oped that Indian industrialists went to government and told them not to go to war.
.
True of 2001, not heard of it after 26/11. On the contrary, there was huge anger after 26/11 and that included industrialists too. After all, Mumbai was attacked and two of the targets were Tata and Oberoi.

Also unlike 2001 when the army under Gen.Padmanabhan was straining at their leash to get at Pakistan, all reports after 26/11 point to Gen.Kapoor not being half as gung ho. The UPA government was into their fifth year and had done nothing for the services and were happy to allow American pressure to “stop” them from doing anything, not there was much chance of that.
 

Compersion

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we ought to be careful about our international airports. I feel the pakis are still hurt by their damage to their prestige what happened to their airports and naval bases and they blame us for that. anyway pakis have much more problems they wont know what to do next anyway.
 

Tony HMG

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There will be now war ever with pakistan, no matter worse the terror attack is. They have attacked our airforce bases, military camps, parliament, temples, railway stations, bus stands, residential properties etc etc etc. We have ghuchiya coward leaders, congress or bjp. Our army gave them sweets in diwali, they snipe our soldiers the same day. A coward dog leading a pack of lions will always fail. This is our story.
 

Indx TechStyle

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Today Corporate chaps are not allowing Govt. to declare war because they will lose $$$. How do you think they will let happen after we become economic power.
Because a stage of gap of power will be achieved when result is one sided.
Indian Economy will face little difference if it goes at war with a country like Bangladesh or Nigeria.
 

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Securing India
A decade after 26/11, terrorist methodology has changed, state response remains woefully same.​
26/11 should never have happened. Enough indications were coming from 2006 that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) was preparing to strike Mumbai, most probably through the sea, that they were training a team for ocean crossing operations, and that it would be a commando-style attack against multiple targets. Only the date and time were not clear. A TV channel survey on July 30, 2006, after a published threat to our West Coast nuclear installations, had indicated that Mumbai was not ready to face an armed sea infiltration. On June 16, 2007, the same TV channel quoted Director General of Police, Jammu and Kashmir, that eight LeT militants had infiltrated through the Mumbai sea coast. Three of them were arrested in Rajouri in March 2007. Strangely, they had adopted the same modus operandi as 26/11 terrorists with Hindu ID cards and transferred to an Indian boat after reaching Indian waters.
All these could have been useful inputs as “open source intelligence” for security planning to strengthen our coastal security had we possessed a “bottom up” security architecture, where such trends are fed into the drafting boards. But we did not have that culture in 2008, nor do we have it today. As against this, the American Department of Home Land Security (DHS) had studied extensive ground reports and flagged threats from 17 million small vessels around their 95,000-mile coastline and prepared a protection plan (“Small Vessel Strategy”) in April 2008.
The least the Maharashtra home department could have done prior to 26/11 was to summon all the coastal security implementers for drawing up a protective plan as Section 4 of the Bombay Police Act had given them the responsibility of “superintendence of the police force”. Tragically, they were totally oblivious of the threat alerts flowing in from 2006. I am not too sanguine whether things have improved even today.
In 2018, we should take into account the vast improvements in terrorist methodology during the last decade when we enquire whether India is better protected now. India should not just analyse the features of Mumbai 26/11. Terrorists seldom repeat their techniques in big attacks except in insurgency-affected areas. “Surprise” is the key element in terrorist methodology, which allows them an edge over security forces in selecting targets, time and methods. The Irish Republican Army had famously told the British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, after the Brighton Hotel attack (October 12, 1984), which blew up her bedroom: “Today we were unlucky. But remember, we have only to be lucky once. You have to be lucky always.”
We had the same experience in Maharashtra. After 26/11, our resistance methodology was to cater to frontal attacks by equipping our force with better weapons and bullet-proof vests. Two years later, terrorists surprised us by coming through the flanks, reverting to timed bomb attacks in the 2010 Pune German Bakery and the 2011 Mumbai triple attacks.
“Surprise” was the most effective weapon even in the 19th century. The first suicide explosives attack occured in Imperial Russia. After six failed attempts through conventional methods, King Alexander II was assassinated in 1881 by Ignati Grinevitsky’s suicide bombing. This methodology travelled to Imperial Japan as a war weapon, preparing 3,000 Tokkotai in planes against American naval forces during the Second World War. The first major suicide truck bombing, which evicted super powers from Lebanon, was the 1983 killing of 300 American and French peace keepers. While al Qaeda used passenger planes as murder weapons, Islamic State (IS) perfected vehicle mowing. Long distance indoctrination conceived by Osama bin Laden was accomplished by IS with persuasive online brain-washing.
Thus the stakes of protecting our country are far more complex in 2018 than in 2008 when we could have intercepted the 10 Pakistani attackers through better coastal security. Now we have to detect hidden online indoctrination and stealth funding to dormant modules. Our counter-terrorism (CT) machinery and disorganised banking system are unable to detect this. In December 2017, Zoobia Shahnaz, born in Pakistan, was arrested in New York for sending $85,000-worth crypto currency to IS under the cover of charity. Although the might of IS has degraded considerably, it is still trying to procure drones which it had used earlier with explosives. On September 26, 2018, two persons were arrested in Denmark, trying to procure drones for IS.
The common bureaucratic response to such “surprises” is to add more intelligence teams, CT forces, better equipment and technology. But a 2008 paper by Belfer Center (Harvard Kennedy School) questions the efficacy of these hackneyed steps. They examined three foiled unreported attempts (1993 “New York City day of terror plot”, 2001 “Lackawanna Six” plot and 2007 “Fort Dix plot”) to conclude that only more efficient ground intelligence could prevent such plots. In India, the state-level intelligence collection has completely degraded since the last many years as ambitious police officers try to get transfers to uniformed wings. No doubt some Anti-Terrorist Squads (ATS) have done good work, but they are all subject to rotational tenure rules.
In some cases, intelligence agencies which were once able to operate beyond their borders are finding it difficult to detect transnational tentacles, even within their country, of al Qaeda or IS. The French, while quite successful in detecting traditional terror outfits like GIA, were unable to follow the kaleidoscopic methodology of al Qaeda or IS. They could foil the “Millennium Plot” of the Los Angeles Airport bombing on December 14, 1999 by alerting American and Canadian agencies on Algerian terrorist Ahmed Ressam. But they could not track the movements of criminal gangs already on their watch-list, like Kouachi brothers of the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January 2015 or the Abdeslam gang of the Paris November 2015 attacks. J&K police may be able to detect different strands of traditional Kashmiri terrorists, but not the new faces of Afghan or Kerala terrorists leaning towards al Qaeda or IS.
All these could be remedied to some extent by a centrally ordained terrorism watch centre, which could also operate as a think tank with sufficient inputs from academics and private experts. The UPA government had conceived a National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) to centrally focus on myriad developments in terrorism, but they were too ambitious with its charter. This was opposed by some chief ministers including Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was then Gujarat chief minister. It is for this reason that the NDA government has not created any centralised CT structure despite their loud proclamations of a muscular response to terrorism. Thus instead of waging war on terrorism under one general, we are left with 29 generals and their state ATS squads.
 

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