Pakistan to lease Gilgit-Baltistan to China & possible Indian response

[Bangalorean]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

^^ Yes, many people are not aware of the distinction between PoK and "Gilgit-Baltistan". Personally, I couldn't care less if the Pakis keep PoK. They have converted PoK into a Jihadi cesspool anyway - it is a snakepit of mad Mullahs out there. But Gilgit-Baltistan is something we really do need. It is our gateway to Central Asia. It is the most strategic piece of land that India can ever gain. PoK is more of a liability than any gain to us. In fact, I would want all these Azaadi-wallahs on the Indian side to cross over to PoK too.

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

^^ Yes, many people are not aware of the distinction between PoK and "Gilgit-Baltistan". Personally, I couldn't care less if the Pakis keep PoK. They have converted PoK into a Jihadi cesspool anyway - it is a snakepit of mad Mullahs out there. But Gilgit-Baltistan is something we really do need. It is our gateway to Central Asia. It is the most strategic piece of land that India can ever gain. PoK is more of a liability than any gain to us. In fact, I would want all these Azaadi-wallahs on the Indian side to cross over to PoK too.

Agreed, except that I would like to have PoK because the lower reaches would help us keep a better connection with GB. If we do not take back PoK, we will have build highways and railways through the treacherous mountains.

Now coming to the snakepit, yes, I agree, but I think we can handle that very well. We may not realize this, but the years of fighting numerous insurgencies and containing them (Kashmir, Khalistan, NE, Naxal), Indian troops (MoD or MoHA) are actually a pretty well trained and battle hardened lot, and in pretty good numbers.

 

[tramp]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

^^ Yes, many people are not aware of the distinction between PoK and "Gilgit-Baltistan". Personally, I couldn't care less if the Pakis keep PoK. They have converted PoK into a Jihadi cesspool anyway - it is a snakepit of mad Mullahs out there. But Gilgit-Baltistan is something we really do need. It is our gateway to Central Asia. It is the most strategic piece of land that India can ever gain. PoK is more of a liability than any gain to us. In fact, I would want all these Azaadi-wallahs on the Indian side to cross over to PoK too.

Post-US Afghanistan is gong to change the geopolitics of the whole region and needs India to rewrite its strategy with more serious intent. That should include throwing a spanner in the works of Gilgit Baltistan surrender to China or even increased Chinese intervention there. India will have to prepare itself for whatever it takes. For eg, we will see increased terror incubation in PoK directly targeting Kashmir Valley and Jammu and India will have to rethink its plans at tactical as well as strategic levels. For eg we may need to shed our inhibitions for hot pursuit.

Hope the armed forces are up to the task and already picking the brains of each other on this angle.

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Post-US Afghanistan is gong to change the geopolitics of the whole region and needs India to rewrite its strategy with more serious intent. That should include throwing a spanner in the works of Gilgit Baltistan surrender to China or even increased Chinese intervention there. India will have to prepare itself for whatever it takes. For eg, we will see increased terror incubation in PoK directly targeting Kashmir Valley and Jammu and India will have to rethink its plans at tactical as well as strategic levels. For eg we may need to shed our inhibitions for hot pursuit.

Hope the armed forces are up to the task and already picking the brains of each other on this angle.

I think India should seriously deploy very long range artillery and keep bombarding PoK and make life hell for the Pakistanis. It is also about time India prepared for a push along the Indus Valley north into GB, and no more pleasing the world please - use all that is needed for a full military victory.

 

[Yusuf]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

The issue of China in Gilgit Baltisthan while a part of the new Great Game is special since it directly affect India.

The real Great Game will start after the US moves out of Afghanistan.

The Pakistan Govt has started sometime back to change the sectarian profile of this area by injecting Sunnis.

The population of the region was approximately 1.5 million, with around 39 per cent Shia, 27 per cent Sunni, 18 per cent Ismaili and 16 per cent Nurbakhshi.2 The district wise breakdown is: Gilgit: 54 per cent Shia, 27 per cent Ismaili and 19 per cent Sunni; Skardu: 87 per cent Shia, 10 per cent Nurbakhshi and 3 per cent Sunni; Diamer: 90 per cent Sunni, 10 per cent Shia; Ghizer: 87 per cent Ismaili, 13 per cent Sunni; and Ghanche: 87 per cent Nurbakhshi, 8 per cent Sunni, 5 per cent Shia. Astore, created as a District in 2005, comprises 70 per cent Sunni and 30 per cent Shia.3.

Islamabad's deliberate policy, since the Zia era, of altering the demographic balance of Shia-dominated Gilgit-Baltistan by settling outsiders in the area, has exacerbated tensions. This part of Kashmir was historically known for its demographic sanctity, since outsiders were not allowed to settle down in the area under the old order. The region has, however, paid a heavy price under Pakistani occupation. It is reported that, as of January 2001, the old population ratio of 1:4 (non-locals to locals) has now changed to 3:4 (non-locals to locals).8 The Shia pockets of Skardu and Gilgit are witnessing a constant increase in the population of non-Shias. Abdul Hamid Khan, Chairman of the Balawaristan National Front (BNF) argues,

Good insight sir. Now please answer the question posed.

 

[Ray]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Agreed, except that I would like to have PoK because the lower reaches would help us keep a better connection with GB. If we do not take back PoK, we will have build highways and railways through the treacherous mountains.

Now coming to the snakepit, yes, I agree, but I think we can handle that very well. We may not realize this, but the years of fighting numerous insurgencies and containing them (Kashmir, Khalistan, NE, Naxal), Indian troops (MoD or MoHA) are actually a pretty well trained and battle hardened lot, and in pretty good numbers.

While the POK along the Neelum (Kishenganga) would be good, yet one cannot rule out the Gurez valley either!

Then there are entries through Turtuk, Batalik along the Indus, Dalunang and ever so many options!

 

[aerokan]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

I think India should seriously deploy very long range artillery and keep bombarding PoK and make life hell for the Pakistanis. It is also about time India prepared for a push along the Indus Valley north into GB, and no more pleasing the world please - use all that is needed for a full military victory.

The range of entire GB from the border of India is a bit around 300 kms. We can always use bigger missiles but the cost will be prohibitive to bomb out entire area if needed and counter productive to win the support of local people without using high precision Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) type weapons. But POK should be a piece of cake to take care of.

I wouls say get 10's of thousands of M82 series dumb bombs for 300$ a piece or M83 series (if increased weight justifies range) . Attach a Smart Wing Adapter Kit - SWAK (marketed by basant aerospace) to it and convert it a glide bomb with a range of around 75km and CEP of around 60 m with regular GPS signal. And we can bomb the hell out of POK at least cost possible with maximum damage. The CEP can be reduced to 15m if military grade signal is available through GLONASS or atleast IRNSS that is going to be launched. Though the CEP is a bit high enough for non-military grade signal, the super cheap cost of the entire assembly and the ability to launch without getting into POK airspace along with being able to cover entire POK is an excellent proposition for me :thumb:

 

[tramp]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

india will not react till they capture Delhi forget rest thing . O ur officer think govt will do some thing and govt think force will do some thing .

Do you mean a "localized" problem? A little territorial acne to be teased out using a pair of diplomatic tweezers?

 

[Ray]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Good insight sir. Now please answer the question posed.

I answered.

China in GB is an unique and singular situation for Indian interest.

The Great Game is about to start.

Russia, China are gearing up to rush into the void created by the US withdrawal, not that the US will withdraw totally, given that the money and human sacrifices made.

Russia, though will be cautious, will still play ball with the US since they are wary of China's growing influence in Russia soft southern underbelly in the CAR. And notwithstanding what maybe said, Russia does not trust China. Nor does Russia trust the US, but the US is oceans away.China is next door and capable of real mischief and low level mischief and not nuclear. The US will not resort to low level mischief since it is far away!

Pakistan, on the other hand, has no options but to kowtow to the Chinese since neither Russia nor the US are keen to be her bedfellows. At least, no warm advances to this effect has been seen so far.

So, Pakistan is trying to change the demographics in GB with the large scale Sunni influx and resettlement since Shias are not too enamoured with the Chinese presence in their homeland. They could become insurgents and so Sunnis will balance this.

So, the this would be the real Great Game and Chinese presence in GB will be of special interest to India and one of the important, even if, only a side show at the present!

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

The range of entire GB from the border of India is a bit around 300 kms. We can always use bigger missiles but the cost will be prohibitive to bomb out entire area if needed and counter productive to win the support of local people without using high precision Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) type weapons. But POK should be a piece of cake to take care of.

I wouls say get 10's of thousands of M82 series dumb bombs for 300$ a piece or M83 series (if increased weight justifies range) . Attach a Smart Wing Adapter Kit - SWAK (marketed by basant aerospace) to it and convert it a glide bomb with a range of around 75km and CEP of around 60 m with regular GPS signal. And we can bomb the hell out of POK at least cost possible with maximum damage. The CEP can be reduced to 15m if military grade signal is available through GLONASS or atleast IRNSS that is going to be launched. Though the CEP is a bit high enough for non-military grade signal, the super cheap cost of the entire assembly and the ability to launch without getting into POK airspace along with being able to cover entire POK is an excellent proposition for me :thumb:

Of course, our artillery won't reach Wakhan Valley, but we can deploy long range artillery and keep 10-15 km under constant bombardment. The focus should be to take control of vantage points and secure supply routes. It's about time we threw the 'sanctity' of the LoC out the window. Once PoK is in our control, we can focus on GB, and then the final preparation for the big event, taking Aksai Chin back.

I hope it happens in my lifetime.

 

[Decklander]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Our domination of Saltoro ridge is very very significant w.r.t Gilgit and Baltistan as this ridge and its spurs butt into Gilgit Baltistan region and anyone who dominates them can completely severe the control of PA over these areas. This region allows us a swift strike across hill tops to cut off all supply routes of PA in a future war. This region is our land route to CIS and for some reason GOI has done nothing to recover it ever from Pak. If this area is ceded to China by Pak, it will become impossible to get it back from china even if in any future war with Pak, we are able to leverage the land in Pakistan for vacating these areas. It also effectively cuts the land route to Gwader for china which will bottle it up in SCS beyound Malacca st.
Why should India keep holding the Saltoro Ridge? | Sand Prints

 

[Yusuf]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

I answered.

China in GB is an unique and singular situation for Indian interest.

The Great Game is about to start.

Russia, China are gearing up to rush into the void created by the US withdrawal, not that the US will withdraw totally, given that the money and human sacrifices made.

Russia, though will be cautious, will still play ball with the US since they are wary of China's growing influence in Russia soft southern underbelly in the CAR. And notwithstanding what maybe said, Russia does not trust China. Nor does Russia trust the US, but the US is oceans away.China is next door and capable of real mischief and low level mischief and not nuclear. The US will not resort to low level mischief since it is far away!

Pakistan, on the other hand, has no options but to kowtow to the Chinese since neither Russia nor the US are keen to be her bedfellows. At least, no warm advances to this effect has been seen so far.

So, Pakistan is trying to change the demographics in GB with the large scale Sunni influx and resettlement since Shias are not too enamoured with the Chinese presence in their homeland. They could become insurgents and so Sunnis will balance this.

So, the this would be the real Great Game and Chinese presence in GB will be of special interest to India and one of the important, even if, only a side show at the present!

Not good enough Sir. You are beating around the bush.

 

[Ray]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

What exactly are your searching for?

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

What exactly are your searching for?

A direct answer to the question: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China?

 

[TrueSpirit]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@TrueSpirit,

Good post.

I hope Nag gets off the dev-table quickly.

Regarding calling Pakistan's N-bluff, I would do it anytime. Just invade and pretend they don't have nukes. You need to be a bit of a nutter to actually win a war. India was strung up with political stuck-stirrups during 1999 Kargil War, just like it was in 1962. We only won in 1999 due to the sheer sacrifice, bravery, and overwhelming use of force. Military logic says surround the enemy and cut off their supplies and keep casualties low. We didn't do that to please the international community.

We have to find a solution to this cold-feet problem that we so often get.

Sounds tempting, but I have some reservations & majority of Indians would share this apprehension of mine.

In 1971, we won a comprehensive victory. No questions asked. Now, everyone must have seen the Shimla agreement clauses (on-a-high-level). Does the agreement from any angle, appear to have been done between a "victor" & a "defeated party"?

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto managed to summarily out-maneuver Indira & her negotiators, in one masterstroke. Majority of the gains we achieved in war were sacrificed for some imaginary brownie-points from **** . All thorny issues could have been settled during those discussions, for eternity. But, nothing of that sort happened. Bhutto returned to Pak like a victor having secured all the objectives he set out with. Scholars resort to many excuses today about our fragile economic & fiscal situation in '71, droughts & famine, the colossal human tragedy (massacres, refugee situation etc.) in W.Bengal, Tripura & adjoining areas etc. but none of that could absolve our leadership of the ultimate folly they committed in aftermath of war, in negotiations with the leaders of dismembered Pak.

We, despite all the good work (exemplary leadership by both civil & military leaders, huge sacrifices etc.) during the war, squandered the gains at the diplomatic table.
How do we know that history wouldn't repeat itself? When a hawk like "Iron-lady" could not do the needful when it was needed most, how can trust on today's coterie of politicians?

Today, as things stand, our polity is more stench-ful than ever before & foreign office mandarins hardly inspire confidence. Entire "governing class" is already so deep in "sh**" that they simply cannot focus on anything other than protecting themselves, their turf & their cliques.

In such a situation, does it make any sense for us to sacrifice precious lives of soldiers, only to display our traditional magnanimity towards fallen foes, later & return to the pre-war positions (military & strategically) ?

Now, I am not saying that we sit & do nothing. I'm all for proxy war, that employs all means at our disposal, especially targeted assignations. & This can be done without UCAV's as well. We have already demonstrated this capability in late '80's. Rumors have it that we still have this capability w.r.t Pak & a few neighboring nations.

But, a full-fledged war, where the costs are going to be huge (lives & limbs of brave men), & gains minimal (since our conventional superiority is just not enough, no matter what we would like to portray/believe), is quite uncalled for, if I dare say it.

Unless we accelerate reforms & achieve modernization at multiple levels (economic, bureaucratic, & military) & hone our black-ops capability, "Aman ki Asha" peaceniks would continue to rule the roost.

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@TrueSpirit,

It is true that India could have pressed for negotiations on the return of PoK and GB, but this is a big debate, best left for another thread.

 

[TrueSpirit]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

@TrueSpirit,

It is true that India could have pressed for negotiations on the return of PoK and GB, but this is a big debate, best left for another thread.

Yes, that's right. My simple point is: In the present environment, does an Indian invasion serves much purpose, given the costs involved & the fact that nothing is going to come out of it?

 

[pmaitra]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Yes, that's right. My simple point is: In the present environment, does an Indian invasion serves much purpose, given the costs involved & the fact that nothing is going to come out of it?

PoK and GB gives us access to Central Asia, and is more beneficial than Aksai Chin. Also, it is easy to defeat Pakistan than PRC. Eventually we have to recover both the territories, and I am not saying do it tomorrow, but one day we will have to; just because those are our territories.

 

[TrueSpirit]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

PoK and GB gives us access to Central Asia, and is more beneficial than Aksai Chin.

100% true

Also, it is easy to defeat Pakistan than PRC.

True, but our conventional superiority even w.r.t Pak is not as decisive, as it should be. A decade or so, later....yes, maybe. But as of today, no. We are just not there.
@Ray Sir, @Decklander can provide the right perspective to this angle.

Eventually we have to recover both the territories, and I am not saying do it tomorrow, but one day we will have to; just because those are our territories

Well, going by the conventional wisdom, this sounds right.

However, we need to clearly understand & weight all the motivations behind such an effort (for why we want to it) vs.

Risks involved: hostile population (follow-up insurgency & challenges to area/theater domination) & terrain in those geographies, human cost involved, the perpetual escalation factor, how our neighbors & powers present in the region might view our action (& prepare for all contingencies), etc.

vs.

Rewards coveted: Territory expansion, assertion of our historical claims, shorter & secure link to energy-rich Caspian region, establishing a foothold near "roof-of-the-world" for containing factors detrimental to Indian interest like extremism & fundamentalist havens, free access to fresh water sources, so on & so forth.

The "geo-political calculus" in this region is too intricate & meshed to ignore even a single factor mentioned above. We need to have a well thought out & well-calibrated Central Asian strategy in place at all levels. I doubt we really have it in our leadership to embark upon such a grand adventure. Our presence in that region so far has been nominal. We could be considered a new player in the "Great Game" pushing its weight around & welcomed accordingly (need to prepare for this contigency, as well)

On a parting note, if is "Ënergy Security" that we are after, prioritize "thorium enrichment, "controlled fusion experiments", offshore exploration on high seas, hydrogen fuel cells, solar & similar non-conventional energy sources. These areas hold literally infinite potential & would actually make of energy self-sufficient & a net exporter of the same.

My point is, without a comprehensive "cost-benefit" analysis done, it would be naive to simply rush into that region, under whatever circumstances.

Till we have done that, IMO, we should prime our focus on betterment of infrastructure (cities, power, port, rural connectivity, etc.), ridding our hinterland of Mao-Naxal violence & expansion of our development efforts to those areas.

 

[SLASH]

Re: Will India react militarily if Pak cedes Gilgit Baltistan to China

Can there be trade-off between India and Pakistan. Kashmir valley for a passage to CAR? Is that something both governments would be looking into?