Pakistan enhancing its nuclear weapons capabilities
Updated on Tuesday, September 01, 2009, 23:16 IST Tags
akistan, nuke, nuclear, weapons, Report
Zeenews Bureau
Washington: Pakistan is enhancing its atomic weapon capabilities across the board by developing and deploying new nuclear-capable missiles and expanding its capacity to produce fissile material, two US experts have said, estimating Islamabad has an arsenal of 70-90 warheads.
In an article published in the latest issue of "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist," Robert S Norris and Hans Kristensen estimate that Pakistan's nuclear stockpile has jumped to an estimated 70-90 warheads from a previous figure of 60.
"A new nuclear-capable ballistic missile is being readied for deployment, and two nuclear capable cruise missiles are under development. Two new plutonium production reactors and a second chemical separation facility also are under construction," Norris and Kristensen wrote.
However they agree that it is exceedingly difficult to estimate precisely how many nuclear weapons Pakistan has produced, how many are deployed, and of what types.
"It is equally troublesome to guess what its future plans might be," the article says.
Norris is a Senior Research Associate at the Natural Resources Defense Council while Kristensen is Director, Nuclear Information Project at Federation of American Scientists.
The increase in the warhead estimate does not mean Pakistan is thought to be sprinting ahead of India, which is also increasing its stockpile, Kristensen writes in a condensed version of the report.
The two US experts believe that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal might not have crossed the 100 figure mark.
’Building more weapons’
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, ex CIA top official on weapons of mass destruction noted a more accelerated pace by Pakistan: "It took them roughly 10 years to double the number of nuclear weapons from roughly 50 to 100".
Following the example of other nations that have developed nuclear weapons, Pakistan is improving its weapon designs, moving beyond its first-generation nuclear weapons that relied on highly enriched uranium, the article said.
In anticipation of this increased plutonium production capacity, Pakistan also is expanding its capabilities to reprocess it, it added.
Satellite images show a second under-construction separation facility adjacent to the original that could handle the plutonium produced in the two new Khushab reactors.
"Work also may have resumed on a partially built separation plant that dates from the 1970s. This plant is located at Chasma, where Pakistan operates a 300-megawatt commercial reactor (CHASNUPP-1) and plans to build three more, one of which is under construction," it said.
Additionally, Pakistan is expanding its facilities at Dera Ghazi Khan in southern Punjab, where uranium hexafluoride and uranium metal are produced, the article said concluding that all of these efforts suggest that Pakistan is preparing to increase and enhance its nuclear forces.
In particular, the new facilities provide the Pakistani military with several options: fabricating weapons that use plutonium cores, mixing plutonium with HEU to make composite cores and/or using tritium to "boost" warheads' yield, the nuclear experts said.
In the absence of a successful full-scale thermonuclear test, it is premature to suggest that Pakistan is producing two-stage thermonuclear weapons, they said.
’Smaller N-bombs’
At the same time it noted that the types of facilities under construction suggest that Pakistan has decided to supplement and perhaps replace its heavy uranium-based weapons with smaller, lighter plutonium-based designs that could be delivered further by ballistic missiles than its current warheads and that could be used in cruise missiles.
Norris and Kristensen said Pakistani Air Force most likely assigns its US-manufactured F-16s a nuclear mission, though it also could use French-manufactured Mirage Vs.
The weapons storage in Sargodha Air Base, they wrote, has igloos but lacks the extra security features that would suggest that the base stores nuclear weapons.
"The assembled nuclear bombs and/or bomb components assigned to the F-16s stationed at the base may be kept at the large Sargodha Weapons Storage Complex. Another alternative is that, fearing a first strike by India, Pakistan stores its weapons at operational or satellite bases west of Sargodha, where F-16s could disperse to pick up their bombs," it said.
Pakistan has three types of operational ballistic missiles considered capable of delivering a nuclear warhead including the short-range ballistic missiles Ghaznavi (Hatf-3) and Shaheen-1 (Hatf-4) and the medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5).
A fourth missile, the Shaheen-2 (Hatf-6), may soon become operational. Additionally, Pakistan also is developing two cruise missiles that US Air Force intelligence estimates may be nuclear capable.
The two experts added that Pakistan is keeping its missiles with nuclear warheads in a completely assembled form and can launch them at a very short notice.
According to them, a satellite picture shows that the Masroor Air Base near Karachi is where missiles like the medium range Shaheen maybe stored.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is a non-technical online magazine that focuses on global security and public policy issues, especially related to the dangers posed by nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. It has been published continuously since 1945, when it was founded by former Manhattan Project physicists after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Bureau Report with IANS inputs
Zeenews Bureau
Washington: Pakistan is enhancing its atomic weapon capabilities across the board by developing and deploying new nuclear-capable missiles and expanding its capacity to produce fissile material, two US experts have said, estimating Islamabad has an arsenal of 70-90 warheads.
In an article published in the latest issue of "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist," Robert S Norris and Hans Kristensen estimate that Pakistan's nuclear stockpile has jumped to an estimated 70-90 warheads from a previous figure of 60.
"A new nuclear-capable ballistic missile is being readied for deployment, and two nuclear capable cruise missiles are under development. Two new plutonium production reactors and a second chemical separation facility also are under construction," Norris and Kristensen wrote.
However they agree that it is exceedingly difficult to estimate precisely how many nuclear weapons Pakistan has produced, how many are deployed, and of what types.
"It is equally troublesome to guess what its future plans might be," the article says.
Norris is a Senior Research Associate at the Natural Resources Defense Council while Kristensen is Director, Nuclear Information Project at Federation of American Scientists.
The increase in the warhead estimate does not mean Pakistan is thought to be sprinting ahead of India, which is also increasing its stockpile, Kristensen writes in a condensed version of the report.
The two US experts believe that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal might not have crossed the 100 figure mark.
’Building more weapons’
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, ex CIA top official on weapons of mass destruction noted a more accelerated pace by Pakistan: "It took them roughly 10 years to double the number of nuclear weapons from roughly 50 to 100".
Following the example of other nations that have developed nuclear weapons, Pakistan is improving its weapon designs, moving beyond its first-generation nuclear weapons that relied on highly enriched uranium, the article said.
In anticipation of this increased plutonium production capacity, Pakistan also is expanding its capabilities to reprocess it, it added.
Satellite images show a second under-construction separation facility adjacent to the original that could handle the plutonium produced in the two new Khushab reactors.
"Work also may have resumed on a partially built separation plant that dates from the 1970s. This plant is located at Chasma, where Pakistan operates a 300-megawatt commercial reactor (CHASNUPP-1) and plans to build three more, one of which is under construction," it said.
Additionally, Pakistan is expanding its facilities at Dera Ghazi Khan in southern Punjab, where uranium hexafluoride and uranium metal are produced, the article said concluding that all of these efforts suggest that Pakistan is preparing to increase and enhance its nuclear forces.
In particular, the new facilities provide the Pakistani military with several options: fabricating weapons that use plutonium cores, mixing plutonium with HEU to make composite cores and/or using tritium to "boost" warheads' yield, the nuclear experts said.
In the absence of a successful full-scale thermonuclear test, it is premature to suggest that Pakistan is producing two-stage thermonuclear weapons, they said.
’Smaller N-bombs’
At the same time it noted that the types of facilities under construction suggest that Pakistan has decided to supplement and perhaps replace its heavy uranium-based weapons with smaller, lighter plutonium-based designs that could be delivered further by ballistic missiles than its current warheads and that could be used in cruise missiles.
Norris and Kristensen said Pakistani Air Force most likely assigns its US-manufactured F-16s a nuclear mission, though it also could use French-manufactured Mirage Vs.
The weapons storage in Sargodha Air Base, they wrote, has igloos but lacks the extra security features that would suggest that the base stores nuclear weapons.
"The assembled nuclear bombs and/or bomb components assigned to the F-16s stationed at the base may be kept at the large Sargodha Weapons Storage Complex. Another alternative is that, fearing a first strike by India, Pakistan stores its weapons at operational or satellite bases west of Sargodha, where F-16s could disperse to pick up their bombs," it said.
Pakistan has three types of operational ballistic missiles considered capable of delivering a nuclear warhead including the short-range ballistic missiles Ghaznavi (Hatf-3) and Shaheen-1 (Hatf-4) and the medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5).
A fourth missile, the Shaheen-2 (Hatf-6), may soon become operational. Additionally, Pakistan also is developing two cruise missiles that US Air Force intelligence estimates may be nuclear capable.
The two experts added that Pakistan is keeping its missiles with nuclear warheads in a completely assembled form and can launch them at a very short notice.
According to them, a satellite picture shows that the Masroor Air Base near Karachi is where missiles like the medium range Shaheen maybe stored.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is a non-technical online magazine that focuses on global security and public policy issues, especially related to the dangers posed by nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. It has been published continuously since 1945, when it was founded by former Manhattan Project physicists after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Bureau Report with IANS inputs
Pakistan building new nuke weapons: Report
