Pak Risk Surges as $50 Billion Debt Bill Coming Due

[garg_bharat]

Pakistan

> Moody's credit rating: Caa1
> Moody's outlook: Stable
> 2014 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 63.7%
> 2014 GDP per capita (PPP): $3,231

This April, Pakistan issued its first bond in seven years, raising roughly $2 billion in dollar-denominated debt. Pakistan has a multi-billion dollar line of credit with the IMF, but loans are conditional on the country enacting structural reforms to its economy. Pakistan was at risk of default last year until the IMF agreed to lend it money. Tax collection remains a major problem in the country. According to The Express Tribune, only roughly one in 200 citizens even files an income tax return. The country's total debt amounts to roughly 64% of its annual GDP, even as government spending for 2014 is estimated to be among the world's lowest, at roughly 20% of GDP.

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/07/31/countries-near-bankruptcy/13435097/

 

[garg_bharat]

"The Washington based National Intelligence Council (NIC) in its Global Trends report (December 2012) “predicts” that 15 countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East will become “failed states” by 2030, due to their “potential for conflict and environmental ills”.

The list of countries in the 2012 NIC report includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, DR Congo, Malawi, Haiti, Yemen. (see p 39)"

 

[garg_bharat]

In its previous 2005 report, published at the outset of Bush’s second term, the National Intelligence Council had predicted that Pakistan would become a “failed’ state” by 2015 “as it will be affected by civil war, complete Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons”.

Pakistan was compared to Yugoslavia which was carved up into seven proxy states after a decade of US-NATO sponsored “civil wars”.

The NIC forecast for Pakistan was a “Yugoslav-like fate” in a “country riven by civil war, bloodshed and inter-provincial rivalries” (Energy Compass, 2 March 2005).

 

[garg_bharat]

The above posts shows assessment of Pakistan's very close ally, USA, who has considerable sources (intelligence gathering) in Pakistan.

The timeline is hard to predict but both US and European assessment of Pakistan is a SOCIETY IN DISTRESS, and public finances in bad shape. Any external stress in such condition will collapse the State. This external stress can come from bad international economy, war in middle east, and similar conditions.

 

[rockey 71]

How do you know?
Respected institutions are projecting a bleak future for Pakistan. Prove to me otherwise if you are so smart!

1.I am a regular visitor to Pakistan as well as India. Beside what the Zionist media paints, Pakistan is less "terrorist" infested than India with insurgencies raising in more than half the land space. 50Blln debt is no big deal for a nation like Pakistan. Look at the link:
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/774/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/

Pakistan (54.6) and India (52.8) have similar debt level. We (30.9) are far better.

2. See also the external debt link:
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2996/economics/list-of-gross-external-debt-by-country/

 

[garg_bharat]

1.I am a regular visitor to Pakistan as well as India. Beside what the Zionist media paints, Pakistan is less "terrorist" infested than India with insurgencies raising in more than half the land space. 50Blln debt is no big deal for a nation like Pakistan. Look at the link:
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/774/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country/

Pakistan (54.6) and India (52.8) have similar debt level. We (30.9) are far better.

2. See also the external debt link:
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2996/economics/list-of-gross-external-debt-by-country/

Your being a visitor to Pakistan does not make you smart.

Let us look at World Bank figures and compare (for 2014)

External Debt
Bangladesh: 34.9 B
India: 463.2 B
Pakistan: 62.8 B

Let us forget domestic debt for the time being.

Looking at raw figures, India's and Pakistan's debt look comparable (as % of GDP). However problem here is composition of debt.

Pakistan's debt is mostly sovereign debt, while India's debt is mostly commercial debt.

Also India has fx reserves and investments (by private parties) that more than cover external debt.

 

[garg_bharat]

The fiscal situation of Pakistan is reflected in currency rates.

INR: 67 to USD
PKR: 104.6 to USD
Taka: 78.3 to USD

 

[garg_bharat]

Let us talk insurgency

Deaths due to terrorism (2014)

Pakistan: 1757
India: 426

Source: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/239416.htm

The worldwide fatalities were 32727.

As 1/6th of world population lives in India, 426 fatalities hardly makes India a "terrorist infested" country.

 

[rockey 71]

Let us talk insurgency

Deaths due to terrorism (2014)

Pakistan: 1757
India: 426

Source: http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/239416.htm

The worldwide fatalities were 32727.

As 1/6th of world population lives in India, 426 fatalities hardly makes India a "terrorist infested" country.

That's a bogus stat. India is definitely more unsafe than Pakistan. Why don't you visit and find out yourself?

 

[rockey 71]

Your being a visitor to Pakistan does not make you smart.

Let us look at World Bank figures and compare (for 2014)

External Debt
Bangladesh: 34.9 B
India: 463.2 B
Pakistan: 62.8 B

Let us forget domestic debt for the time being.

Looking at raw figures, India's and Pakistan's debt look comparable (as % of GDP). However problem here is composition of debt.

Pakistan's debt is mostly sovereign debt, while India's debt is mostly commercial debt.

Also India has fx reserves and investments (by private parties) that more than cover external debt.

And what makes you imagine that you have become a smart Alec? That sort of debt does not make Pakistanis or Bangladeshis loose sleep.

 

[garg_bharat]

That's a bogus stat. India is definitely more unsafe than Pakistan. Why don't you visit and find out yourself?

How do you know it is bogus stats??

 

[garg_bharat]

And what makes you imagine that you have become a smart Alec? That sort of debt does not make Pakistanis or Bangladeshis loose sleep.

Wow a Bangladeshi speaking for Pakistan?

Losing sleep? People who cann't sleep will lose no sleep.

Debt is just one of the indicators. There are many. I have given several pointers. You should read. Hope your Madarsa education does not come in the way.

This will also help you:
http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/bangladesh-on-the-brink-between-terrorism-and-democracy/