PAF suspends Air Force Development Plan 2025 says report

[sayareakd]

In the coming Pakistan want to do many things, specially in Afghanistan, Plus all the aid from Uncle going to dry up, no money for the transit rights, Pak to build and support Talibs to take over Afghanistan. Plus Pak Navy plans for Nuke power sub, but it is very remote chance of them having made one, plus it will further drain on their resources.

PAF in absence of funds may have comfort levels with Junk fighter's existing block, may be few upgrade but nowhere near Block-II which they have planned.
Since non of the other AF has purchased Junk fighter except for PAF, same my result in J10 fighter, therefore China will desperately want PAF to have few J10 on soft loan or may be if Pak is lucky free of cost. Specially when MRCA arrives with IAF.

When IAF will start getting FGFA, PAF will have no choice but to go for J31 fighters.

Now what we should do is two things first to make sure that Pak go bankrupt, second to make sure Pak eco is at it is. How it can be done, lets not discuss that.

 

[p2prada]

Their fleet will whittle down to about 200-250 jets, (150 JF-17s, 63+18 F16s and J-31) post 2020, as per some sources. These numbers, if correct, will give the IAF disproportionate superiority, even in their airspace.

250 jets would be around 12 squadrons. That's similar to what PLAAF can bring to their borders IMO.

By the time the J-31s starts coming in, they will need to start plans for retiring their F-16s (except for 18 B52s). Replacing every one of their F-16s with J-31s will be a huge task in itself. There is also the question of how good the J-31 really is. It could merely be a Rafale/EF with an internal bay rather than an actual low observable aircraft.

Btw, the 63 F-16s include the 18 B52s. That's 40 of the original - 9 losses + 14 EDA + 18 B52s = 63. There is a chance they may receive 14 more EDA. That's around 77. It is possible PAF may opt to fund the upgrade of those 14 aircraft ($150 Million) over 36 new J-10s ($1.5 Billion). However they have only ordered 45 MLU kits for their 45 operational F-16A/Bs. So officially, they will have 45 F-16 MLU apart from 18 B52s = 63 F-16s.

Their post 2015 fleet would be 100 JF-17, 63 F-16 + 50 F-7PG = 213 aircraft. Their post 2018 fleet would possibly be 150 JF-17 + 63 F-16 + 50 F-7PG = 263. By 2025 they will need a replacement plan for 50 F-7PGs and 45 F-16s. That's nearly 100 aircraft. They may either opt for 100 more JF-17s or simply replace 45 F-16s with 36 J-31s.

If those 14 extra F-16s show up, change the F-16 strength to 77. Their best case scenario, they may eventually afford 36 J-10s with soft loans from China.

 

[DivineHeretic]

250 jets would be around 12 squadrons. That's similar to what PLAAF can bring to their borders IMO.

By the time the J-31s starts coming in, they will need to start plans for retiring their F-16s (except for 18 B52s). Replacing every one of their F-16s with J-31s will be a huge task in itself. There is also the question of how good the J-31 really is. It could merely be a Rafale/EF with an internal bay rather than an actual low observable aircraft.

Btw, the 63 F-16s include the 18 B52s. That's 40 of the original - 9 losses + 14 EDA + 18 B52s = 63. There is a chance they may receive 14 more EDA. That's around 77. It is possible PAF may opt to fund the upgrade of those 14 aircraft ($150 Million) over 36 new J-10s ($1.5 Billion). However they have only ordered 45 MLU kits for their 45 operational F-16A/Bs. So officially, they will have 45 F-16 MLU apart from 18 B52s = 63 F-16s.

Their post 2015 fleet would be 100 JF-17, 63 F-16 + 50 F-7PG = 213 aircraft. Their post 2018 fleet would possibly be 150 JF-17 + 63 F-16 + 50 F-7PG = 263. By 2025 they will need a replacement plan for 50 F-7PGs and 45 F-16s. That's nearly 100 aircraft. They may either opt for 100 more JF-17s or simply replace 45 F-16s with 36 J-31s.

If those 14 extra F-16s show up, change the F-16 strength to 77. Their best case scenario, they may eventually afford 36 J-10s with soft loans from China.

The PAF was on the lookout for some second hand F-16s from Norway, Netherlands and a few other Western nations, as well as from Venezuela (provided they still fly and have some life left). This was around 2010-11. Not sure they are in the hunt even now, but if these planes come at dirt cheap rates, they may buy them.

The number of F-16s could rise to 100 or even higher even, if such a deal is made. But that still would leave them with a huge number of fighters to replace post 2020. Btw, they are saying that since the Mirages went through some heavy upgrades not so long back, they will still be in play at the end of this decade. The F7PG, on the other hand, no more use than a point defence AC.

Also bear in mind that the SAAB AWE&Cs still need to be fixed/replaced. These will cut further into the costs.

 

[natarajan]

Pakistan have just india to take care but it has chincoms help but india has huge task before it as it has to face china monster along with rabid dog pakistan,and small irritations like bangladesh,myanmar and sl.We should have such a force to face all these nations along with chinese

 

[p2prada]

The PAF was on the lookout for some second hand F-16s from Norway, Netherlands and a few other Western nations, as well as from Venezuela (provided they still fly and have some life left). This was around 2010-11. Not sure they are in the hunt even now, but if these planes come at dirt cheap rates, they may buy them.

The number of F-16s could rise to 100 or even higher even, if such a deal is made. But that still would leave them with a huge number of fighters to replace post 2020. Btw, they are saying that since the Mirages went through some heavy upgrades not so long back, they will still be in play at the end of this decade. The F7PG, on the other hand, no more use than a point defence AC.

Also bear in mind that the SAAB AWE&Cs still need to be fixed/replaced. These will cut further into the costs.

NATO flies a lot. Much more than PAF can, I dare say. PAF will only get scraps if they go for second hand European jets. Their only hope is American EDA.

 

[Illusive]

Will KSA come to pakis rescue has to be seen.

 

[datguy79]

@p2prada What is your estimation of the annual fuel expenses of the PAF. Flying a jet isn't cheap, and specially if they have around ~350-400 of them.

 

[p2prada]

@p2prada What is your estimation of the annual fuel expenses of the PAF. Flying a jet isn't cheap, and specially if they have around ~350-400 of them.

Fuel isn't a major cost factor in comparison to the budgets air forces work with. Even with such a humongous air force, the USAF spends around $10 Billion on fuel every year, including their transports and helicopters.

Total cost for keeping the PAF aircraft flying is within a few hundred million dollars.

 

[Vishwarupa]

PAF suspends "Air Force Development Plan 2025," says report

Is this a message by pakis to their fathers - US, china & KSA that the kid is not getting enough pocket monies.

 

[The Last Stand]

Total cost for keeping the PAF aircraft flying is within a few hundred million dollars.

I'd put it at 1/25th of USAF costs. Not more but it could even be less.

Of course, I am just a newbie in this stuff.

 

[ladder]

This effects of this putting on hold the modernization will also affect the modernization,upgrade and new procurement of SAMs, radars, missiles and munitions for PAF
These things tend to get outdated faster than air-frames and the missiles and munitions have a certain self-life after which it needs upgrade for extension for the same or needs replacement.

so, this is also a aspect that needs to be looked at. Some of the platforms which are defensive in nature and are vital for keeping their air-space secure takes preference for modernization and will eat up resources.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Fuel isn't a major cost factor in comparison to the budgets air forces work with. Even with such a humongous air force, the USAF spends around $10 Billion on fuel every year, including their transports and helicopters.

Total cost for keeping the PAF aircraft flying is within a few hundred million dollars.

Its not really a huge cost, the fuel I mean.

But a few hundred million is still a significant amount for a cash stripped AF. When they are being forced to cut down on simple upgrades to their fleet, it is quite logical that flying hours will be reduced to reduce expenses as much as possible without significantly reducing combat capability.

Then there is also the issue of maintainance of the ACs, the ammunition, the engine overhauls etc. These too add a significant amount to the expenses.

 

[p2prada]

Its not really a huge cost, the fuel I mean.

But a few hundred million is still a significant amount for a cash stripped AF. When they are being forced to cut down on simple upgrades to their fleet, it is quite logical that flying hours will be reduced to reduce expenses as much as possible without significantly reducing combat capability.

Then there is also the issue of maintainance of the ACs, the ammunition, the engine overhauls etc. These too add a significant amount to the expenses.

Of course, a 40% cut is massive. Something that cannot be overlooked even one bit. Note that the 40% cut will directly translate to reduction in operation and capital acquisition.

 

[Decklander]

Considering the finacial health of Pak economy, I really doubt if it can sustein itself by supporting Taliban in Afgan against the combined financial power of US+India+Russia. War is not a small game, its a big biz and needs tons of money. Mujahids cud do it based on US+Saudi money against USSR but now US + Russia will together pump in the money for ANA. Can Pak succeed now? Will it barter away its own people and industry to control Afgan? They need money within Pakistan for Pakistanis and not to wage a war in Afgan to control it.

 

[ladder]

The future of "Saffron Bandit" exercise seems bleak

 

[JBH22]

Considering the finacial health of Pak economy, I really doubt if it can sustein itself by supporting Taliban in Afgan against the combined financial power of US+India+Russia. War is not a small game, its a big biz and needs tons of money. Mujahids cud do it based on US+Saudi money against USSR but now US + Russia will together pump in the money for ANA. Can Pak succeed now? Will it barter away its own people and industry to control Afgan? They need money within Pakistan for Pakistanis and not to wage a war in Afgan to control it.

They will eat more grass in that case as they like to bark they will never compromise on honour.

 

[sayareakd]

They will eat more grass in that case as they like to bark they will never compromise on honour.

they will eat each other like they are doing with suicide bombers.........................

 

[DivineHeretic]

Of course, a 40% cut is massive. Something that cannot be overlooked even one bit. Note that the 40% cut will directly translate to reduction in operation and capital acquisition.

Absolutely, and also to be noted is that the PAF is conducting air strikes (albeit on their own population) with PGMs, using both the F-16s and the JF-17s. And each bombing is preceeded by air-reconaissance. That means atleast a certain number of ACs and airbases on war footing. Thats extra consumption of fuel, extra maintainance costs and not to forget ammunition costs. Those PGMs could be upto $250,000.

News has it that some of the JF-17 ( the entire first batch) are optimised for A2G role, and have very limited A2A capability as PAF were in a hurry to get the JF-17s to conduct air strikes. The scarce information of ECM pods for the JF-17 seem to infer that as well. The plan was to get them A2A later, which now is screwed, courtesy the blown economy.

 

[DivineHeretic]

They will eat more grass in that case as they like to bark they will never compromise on honour.

Well, I was under the impression that they ran out of grass when they created the nukes. The remaining grass is reserved for the cattle, if I remember correctly.

In any case, the whatever national honour remained after Kargil fiasco was shreded the moment the new national bird of Pakistan (read the Predator and Reaper) began a deeply prejudiced depopulation campaign against the national animals of Pak (read the Taliban, the AQ, the mullah brigade), that too in full view of the "Second to None" Baniya destroyer PAF.

On topic, as far as Afg is concerned, one player everyone seems to underestimate is Iran. It has a deep hatred of the Taliban (sectarian reasons?). The hatred is so deep that despite all the rhetoric the Iranians have spit at the US, it has not interferred or hampered NATO ops in Afganistan. Compare this to the massive supply of men and materials the Iranians have given to the hostiles in Iraq. The Iranians hate the Talibs even more than the US

When US winds down its campaign in Afg. , Iran will move to secure political gains, possibly with Russia & CAR nations.

 

[JBH22]

Well, I was under the impression that they ran out of grass when they created the nukes. The remaining grass is reserved for the cattle, if I remember correctly.

In any case, the whatever national honour remained after Kargil fiasco was shreded the moment the new national bird of Pakistan (read the Predator and Reaper) began a deeply prejudiced depopulation campaign against the national animals of Pak (read the Taliban, the AQ, the mullah brigade), that too in full view of the "Second to None" Baniya destroyer PAF.

On topic, as far as Afg is concerned, one player everyone seems to underestimate is Iran. It has a deep hatred of the Taliban (sectarian reasons?). The hatred is so deep that despite all the rhetoric the Iranians have spit at the US, it has not interferred or hampered NATO ops in Afganistan. Compare this to the massive supply of men and materials the Iranians have given to the hostiles in Iraq. The Iranians hate the Talibs even more than the US

When US winds down its campaign in Afg. , Iran will move to secure political gains, possibly with Russia & CAR nations.

You forgot Bakistanis live in self denial mode, despite having lost all wars they still do this chest thumping of war mongers.

At best Bakistan air force can expect some chinese planes at discounted rates and more begging at US for second hand F-16.

The greatest Insurance of India against Bakistan is the Navy they cannot match it, airforce has dwindling squadrons and army modernisation still lagging.
The Navy has the possibility to choke them economically during war.total naval blockade though cruise missile from enemy may be a game changer

they will eat each other like they are doing with suicide bombers.........................

ameen, words of wisdom

Hopefully when they initiate this they don't flock to our border.