Obama's India Visit

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False promise of change​

October 29, 2010 2:47:04 PM

Arindam Chaudhuri

Barack Obama became the President of the US by promising to change American policy for the better, both at home and abroad. He was honoured with the Nobel Prize for Peace in anticipation of keeping his many promises. Two years later, he has failed to keep any of his promises

Praising American Presidents has not been quite my forte. However, I celebrated Mr Barack Obama's presidential victory wholeheartedly because I almost believed that he held a promise that American Presidents in the past have rarely held. He really could have been the change the world was waiting for.

Recession had reared its ugly head once more in the greedy capitalist world and Mr George W Bush had left a dubious legacy behind. There could have been no better a time for Mr Obama to prove his worth. But forget bringing the world out of recession, Mr Obama has not even been able to do anything to bring the US out of recession.

Of course, if we were to believe the Nobel Committee and its choice for the Nobel Prize in Economics this year, then there is nothing wrong with the capitalist system, and nothing much to be done but match the existing unemployment with the existing jobs vacant in various companies. Ludicrous, just like their Peace Prize to Mr Obama was.

Mr Obama's campaign was all about "Yes, we can!" The truth is he hasn't accomplished much of what he had promised during his election campaign. Among his other failures, he has failed to keep one of his key promises — the closure of the Guantanamo Bay prison. And, also on providing relief for illegal immigrants.

Even after two years, Gitmo is still active and no concrete steps have been crafted for illegal migrants. It is now a global joke that his promises of closing Gitmo and solving other human rights issues were part of the parcel that won him the coveted Nobel Prize for Peace.

It was Mr Obama who initiated talks on global warming and announced his plans to organise a series of climate talks. Back in 2008, Mr Obama had projected himself as a "citizen of the world". But then, this same Mr Obama, the perceived harbinger of optimism, now blames developing nations for global warming.

This reminds me of President Bush who, during his tenure, discarded the Kyoto Protocol on similar grounds. In a similar manner, during a State-of-the-Union speech on January 27, 2010, Mr Obama promised something that is quite the opposite of what he had stood for during his campaign days. Instead of talking about green jobs and climate change policy, he discussed his plans on nuclear power, oil, gas, coal and bio-fuels. That's change indeed!

Mr Obama's biggest global failure has perhaps been regarding the Iraq and Afghan issues. He had committed that under a new plan, "the US will remove all combat troops by August 31, 2010". Systematically delaying the troops' withdrawal has been akin to breaking the promise. Mr Obama is still to remove his troops from Afghanistan and is finding all possible excuses to stay back. One wonders whether Mr Obama is actually unable to shift out of Afghanistan due to the $1 trillion worth mineral wealth of the country.

The mother of all disasters, in terms of doing the opposite of peace though, is the Obama Administration waiving sections of a law meant to prevent the recruitment of child soldiers in Africa, thus making it easier for African countries to make use of underage troops. In a memorandum to Ms Hillary Clinton, he wrote, "I hereby determine that it is in the national interest of the US to waive the application to Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Yemen of the prohibition in section 404(a) of the (Child Service Prevention Act)".

Let me now come to Mr Obama's much hyped visit to India. If numbers speak volumes, then Mr Obama's recent approval ratings in India should be enough to gauge his popularity and acceptability. His approval rating has dropped by 13 per cent from 31 per cent in 2008 to 18 per cent in 2010 as per the latest Gallup Poll. Surprisingly, or perhaps not so surprisingly, the approval rating of Mr Obama has improved in Pakistan where the rating has almost doubled from 10 per cent in 2008 to 18 per cent in 2010, all thanks to the $7.5 billion aid package and massive flood relief work.

Mr Obama's current approval rating in India is one of the lowest in the 18 Asian countries, for all predictable reasons. Even the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in a new report said, "Most of what the US Government can do for India lies in the broader global arena, and most of what India needs at home, it must do for itself". The report further argued that "expectations for a partnership between the two countries in the near term are unrealistically high and overlook how their interests, policies, and diplomatic style will often diverge".

Mr Obama recently made his stand very clear on India's outsourcing business and announced that tax breaks should go to companies that create jobs in the US and not overseas. Furthering his anti-India stance, Mr Obama in August this year signed into law a legislation massively hiking work visa fees, ignoring concerns over a discriminatory provision that will largely hit Indian IT firms.

 

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Obama visit gives Left a reason to rally

NEW DELHI: President Barack Obama will not be spared the Left's familiar anti- US slogan-shouting when he arrives in India next month. The four Left parties are planning a countrywide protest on November 8 with a five-point demand which includes that Washington should stop "pressuring" India on foreign and economic policies.

"US president Barack Obama is visiting India. Being the first African American president and coming after the neo-conservative Bush regime, there were expectations of positive changes. These, however, have not materialised," said a joint statement issued by all four Left parties.

Alleging that the US was pressuring India to adopt economic policies which are "detrimental" to people in the name of a strategic alliance, they said it should stop asking India to open up agriculture, retail trade, education and other services to American capital and multinational companies.

Besides this, the Left parties said their protest will highlight justice for victims of the Bhopal gas accident, making Dow Chemicals pay for the damages and for the clean-up of the factory site and extradition of Warren Anderson to India to stand trial.

"Scrap the Indo-US Defence Framework Agreement which seeks to convert India into a military ally of the US. Stop pressurising India to give up liability claims on US nuclear suppliers," the statement said.

The Left is also seeking a political settlement in Afghanistan to establish an 'independent' and 'neutral' state and withdrawal of US-Nato forces immediately.

Besides these, it will demand ending the US embargo on Cuba and stopping all assistance to Israel till it vacates the occupied Palestinian and Arab territories.

The statement was signed by Prakash Karat, A B Bardhan, Debabrata Biwas and Abani Roy. However, the Left, for the first time, has decided against boycotting the address of an American president to both houses of Parliament. While the Left protests outside, several of its MPs will be present in the central hall during Mr Obama's address.
Similar protests were held during the visits of US presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush.

During Mr Clinton's visit, Left MPs boycotted his address to Parliament. As outside supporters of the UPA government, Left parties vetoed its attempts to allow Mr Bush to have a similar honour.

 

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India to discuss outsourcing curbs with Obama

BANGALORE: The Indian government will discuss a host of issues, including the outsourcing curbs, with US President Barack Obama during his visit to India November 6-9, Union Minister of State for Communications and Information Tachnology T Sachin Pilot said on Thursday.

"We will be discussing a host of issues with Obama during his visit to India November 6-8. Issues related to the IT industry, including hike in US visa fee and outsourcing curbs will also be taken up with him by our government," Pilot told reporters on the margins of Bangalore IT.Biz 2010 here here.

Noting that concerns of the IT industry have already been conveyed to the highest levels in the US administration, Pilot said that the government would adequately address issues pertaining to the growth of the industry.

"The Indian IT sector is a very strong and resilient industry. No matter what strategies or challenges it faces from others, it will overcome all of them, as it has young, energetic and talented people, who understand the needs of the country and the world better," Pilot said after unveiling the three-day premier event.

Asserting that the Indian IT industry was matured and strong enough to deal with any challenge that may come up, he said that information and communication technologies (ICT) have to reach out to the farthest parts of the country.

"The IT industry and other stakeholders have to focus on the farthest, remote and rural areas. I believe that computer penetration, internet broadband services and e-governance must be implemented in rural areas expeditiously," Pilot said.

Referring to the launch of electronic public call offices (ePCOs) in Karnataka, Pilot said the ePCOs would ensure and enable the people in rural areas access government services at reasonable rates.

"It will also create much more transparency and ensure delivery of services at the last mile. We feel that e-governance has to be a reality and that can be possible when we target the 600,000-odd villages across the country," Pilot pointed out.

Promoted by the state-run Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and Karnataka State Electronics Development Corporation Ltd (Keonics) with global chip maker Intel and Suvidha Group, the ePCOs will be set up across the state to ensure employment to those who were operating PCOs before the mobile revolution rendered landline phones redundant.

"About 5,000 e-PCOs will be set up across the state this fiscal year (2010-11) with a computer and high speed broadband connectivity for internet facility to offer a range of e-services, including utility payments, booking of air, train and bus tickets and e-mail for citizens in urban and rural areas," state Indormation Technology Minister Katta Subramanya Naidu said on the occasion.

The Karnataka government has taken the initiative to bailout about 200,000 PCOs across the state affected by the mobile revolution, by equipping them with a computer and internet for providing a range of e-services to citizens and ensure steady income for self-employed operators.

 

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From Ike to Obama: K Natwar Singh

The PM should read Ramachandra Guha's The Makers of Modern India and give a copy to Mr Obama

Great Expectations. Hard Times. These are the titles of two well-known novels by Charles ****ens. This is how I look at the forthcoming state visit of President Barack Obama early next month. He is the sixth US president to do us the honour. The other five are: President Dwight D Eisenhower, 1959, Richard Nixon, 1969 (not a state visit), Jimmy Carter, 1978, Bill Clinton, 2000, George W Bush, 2006.

Indo-US relations have resembled the game known as Snakes and Ladders. For the past decade the ladders have left the snakes behind. This, all responsible, thinking Indians have welcomed. George W Bush fell in love with India. President Obama, being cerebral, has acted with restraint. I hope our distinguished members of Parliament will not repeat the 2000 performance at the end of the Clinton speech and show similar restraint.

America needs India as much as India needs America. I am all for a relationship which is not run on the basis of senior and junior partner. Strategic partners, yes. Strategic allies, no. As external affairs minister, I had made it known to our American friends that India followed an independent non-aligned foreign policy. We could not ally ourselves with countries which are members and sponsors of military pacts. That policy, I am glad to note, continues.

Mr Obama is assured of a specially warm public and official welcome. He is the president of the United States. He is also the first non-white to occupy the White House. His place in history is assured for that reason alone, if for no other.

America and India have many commonalities. We also have differences. The bedrock of democratic diplomacy is to respect and understand those differences and, if possible, to minimise them. Our economy is doing well. His is not. Here, Guru Manmohan Singh could offer him a tip or two. His ratings have gone down dramatically. If he does badly in next week's elections — that cannot be ruled out — he will have another minus on the political scoreboard. Our priority is to eradicate poverty. Here America can help. We can assuage his anxieties about outsourcing. On Kashmir, I am confident he will be cautious. We have no need for third-party good offices on Kashmir. It is strictly a bilateral matter between India and Pakistan.

Mr Obama's $2.9-billion aid to Pakistan could not have come at a worse time — on the eve of his maiden trip to India. In diplomacy, timing is important.

Eighty to 90 per cent work on the visit would already have been done. Even the text of the joint statement would have reached final stage by now. The positives outnumber the negatives. The nuclear deal, strong commercial links, new initiatives in energy, climate change, science and technology, higher education, and cooperation in HIV-AIDS are few of them.

The media on both sides has a very important function to perform. Our media goes overboard. The Americans play the spin game (I am not talking about cricket). According to media reports, with Mr Obama are coming 250 CEOs. Most welcome. It will be good education plus good business for them. Ramachandra Guha in his masterly book, The Makers of Modern India, says something very original, that is also very deep. "There were, and are, five revolutions simultaneously occurring in India — the urban revolution, the industrial revolution, the national revolution, the democratic revolution and the social revolution. The key word is simultaneously".

The prime minister should read the book and give a copy to Mr Obama, himself an author of rare quality and ripeness.

How I wish our people would stop wailing about our veto-carrying permanent seat in the UN Security Council. It is unseemly. As far as my experience goes, neither the US nor China will categorically and publicly give their minds on this devilishly sensitive question. We have made our views known and should leave it at that.

One word of caution. Practise strict bilateralism when it comes to our relations with the US and China. Indo-US relations stand on their own. So do Sino-Indian relations. No overlapping of any kind. It is not necessary to elaborate on this.

I as a junior official was associated with the Eisenhower visit in December 1959. There exists a photo taken at Palam airport in which our truly is walking behind the president and Pandit Nehru. The two leaders drove in an open car (not flown from America if I remember right) with the crowds breaking the flimsy cordon to shake hands with Ike. He stayed at the Rashtrapati Bhawan and not in a hotel. The denizens of Delhi — one million — assembled at Ramlila grounds to welcome the US president. Alas! This is no longer possible.

Tailpiece
On November 8, in the Central Hall of Parliament, for President Obama's speech, the IFS will feel good. Vice-President Hamid Ansari (batch of 1961) and Speaker Meira Kumar (1973 batch) will do the honours. He will welcome the US president. She will wind up the function with a speech in Hindi.

The author is a diplomat, writer and former foreign minister

 

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US lobbying for strong IPR regime in India

NEW DELHI: The US is "lobbying" for an intellectual property rights (IPR) regime in India that protects American patents, a senior official of the Obama Administration said on Tuesday.

Ahead of US President Barack Obama's visit, the US Department of Commerce's Director General and Assistant Secretary, Suresh Kumar, is leading a 36-member strong delegation of small and medium enterprises in the field of renewable energy to India.

US cooperation in India's renewable energy programme is one of the areas that may come up for discussion during Obama's visit beginning on October 6. Kumar said every country should have a strong patent protection policy for encouraging innovation and research.

"... That is all we are lobbying to do here, to protect international property rights, to protect our patents," he said on the sidelines of a CII conference on small enterprises.

India, which is signatory to the WTO's TRIPS agreement, has always maintained that it has a strong patent protection regime in place.

Kumar further said that economic engagement would remain the focus area of bilateral discussions during the US President's visit. "Trade and commerce are always going to be the centrepiece of this relationship and inevitably, we will have sessions around that," Kumar said.

The US is India's third largest trading partner, with bilateral trade between the two countries amounting to USD 36.5 billion in 2009-10. On the first day of his India visit, Obama is scheduled to address a 'Business and Entrepreneurship Summit' in Mumbai.

Enhanced high-technology cooperation is also expected to be on the agenda, with agreements in the aviation, space, defence and biotechnology spaces on the anvil. On the outsourcing issue, Kumar said the US was the "world's most open market", but added that, "Any outsourcing, insourcing is in the private sector domain and business people do what they feel is right for them economically and commercially."

 

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Economics to override politics during Obama's visit to India

WASHINGTON: Number of times US officials referred to the economic agenda in a preview on Wednesday of President Obama's upcoming visit to India: 26. Mention of jobs for Americans and promoting US exports: 17 times. References to strategic ties with India: Three times.

Officials who briefed the media on the three-day trip left little doubt that, at least for now, against the backdrop of a bleak domestic political scenario and unsparing electoral compulsions, President Obama would pursue an agenda aimed at furthering US economic interests (and jobs), sidelining the strategic quotient.

There will be no far reaching endorsement of India's push for a permanent UNSC seat, although officials re-asserted the Bush-era mantra that "India's rise and its strength and progress on the global stage is deeply in the strategic interest of the United States."

But furthering that strategic agenda might have to wait pending domestic US compulsions and India's own internal deliberations on handling American overtures. For now, the major focus "will be his message on economics, on increasing exports, supporting jobs back here, including highlighting some commercial deals that we hope to have consummated by that time," US Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs Mike Froman, said.

Officials declined to provide details and figures about the commercial deals, preferring to leave it for a triumphant announcement during the President's visit, but they indicated it would be in the billions, much of it aimed at generating jobs in America. In return, there is also likely to be an announcement regarding New Delhi's demand for lifting of embargo on hi-tech exports to India, which will also help the US economy.

In fact, Obama will be spending almost two days in India's financial and commercial entrepot Mumbai, against just a full day in New Delhi, as he aggressively pursues the US economic agenda.

"With 1.2 billion people and an economy expected to grow at 8 percent a year for the next several years, we really see India as a potentially very important market for US. exports," Froman said, candidly adding, "that's the reason why the President will be there, focusing, on the first day, on the economic and commercial relationship."

Questions at the White House briefing for the domestic media -- there was a separate one for Indian journalists -- expectedly centered on outsourcing, call centers, and the flight of jobs to India. Froman and other US officials sought to provide some perspective, pointing out that India's own growth also generated jobs in the US and that Indian companies are the second largest fastest growing investors in the US, supporting about 57,000 jobs.

"So it's a fast-growing economic relationship. And it's a two-way street as well," Froman explained.

Beyond the incessant talking up of the American economic agenda, officials rejected the idea that the US-India ties had stalled, and pointed to various engagements, including military exercises, and atmospherics, to maintain that it is on song. The President's visit, they said, affords the opportunity "to lift this relationship up to a new level where India is really a strategic partner for the United States in the region and in the world."

How they hope to accomplish this without a decisive, big-ticket item like the nuclear deal – such as an endorsement for a UNSC permanent seat – was not clear.

 

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Africa too on India-US radar

India and the US are coming together to help Africa and a declaration of this intent is expected during President Barak Obama's visit. Though the African initiative comes under the India-US agricultural cooperation, the collaboration is being firmed up at a time when the Chinese are miles ahead in
making their imprint felt in Africa.

The India-US initiative comes soon after India and Japan formally setting in place a "dialogue" for Africa to synchronise their strategies in the continent.

Ben Rhodes, US deputy national security advisor for strategic communication, had said, "This is an opportunity to talk about that partnership, and also its potential to service our broader food security initiatives in places like Africa, as well as continuing to advance our bilateral cooperation with India."

His comments came while addressing media with other senior officials, formally announcing Obama's visit to India.

The food security and agriculture is theme of a roundtable Obama is attending in Mumbai. The US has assistance programmes in 47 countries in Africa.

"The US had sought ideas on streamlining the delivery system where our experience comes in handy," said an Indian government official. "Our programmes are consultative, comprehensive, and focused on capacity building. The capacity building takes time, but it gives helps the local population in the long run and brings us goodwill dividends."

New Delhi has often insisted they do things differently in Africa, "exploiting resources" is not its motto.

The way the Chinese are advancing in Africa is a cause of uneasiness for many countries as energy and other resources are at the core of Beijing's strategy there.

India has pledged $5.4 billion in the next five years, and will provide preferential market access for exports from all 50 least developed countries, including 34 from Africa.

 

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Arun Jaitley on what BJP expects of Obama​

Arun Jaitley [ Images ] speaks exclusively on Indo-US relations and the Bhartiya Janata Party's expectations from US President Barack Obama's [ Images ] visit to India [ Images ].


On the issue of Indo-US relations, the BJP has fundamental differences with the Left parties. The Left is obsessed with anti-Americanism as a part of their geo-political vision. The BJP has no such issue. We are primarily governed by our nationalistic philosophy.

We genuinely believe that good Indo-US strategic ties in various fields are absolutely necessary -- whether it's security, space or trade. We are in favour of strengthening Indo-US ties.

During Atal Bihari Vajpayee's [ Images ] regime after the Pokhran nuclear test we took effective steps to ensure that relations are restored and strengthened. America's primacy in the global economy cannot be understated, even now. India cannot remain isolated from the global mainstream.

If you ask me for a broad big picture, I will say we stand for cordial and close relations with strategic parity with America. In many bilateral areas we are guided by our "India first" attitude of the BJP. When the Indo-US nuclear deal was signed we thought narrowing down or closing of India's nuclear options was not in the interest of Indian defence. We took the stance because our neighbourhood is fragile and we have China and Pakistan, two nuclear powers in close proximity.

We know we have defined a 'no first use' policy for nuclear weapons and we only want a minimum deterrent policy but still we opposed narrowing down of India's nuclear options.

Rightly or wrongly, the government of India went ahead to sign the nuclear deal. Unlike the Left parties we were not opposed to the idea of a civil nuclear pact or a liability act. We wanted a fair and just mechanism to be worked out between the two countries. The government had drafted a very inadequate amount of liability in case of an accident.

We worked that out. Americans wanted complete immunity to be given to suppliers of nuclear power plants. We disagreed and I am glad that government agreed with us. As a result, the overwhelming majority has passed the liability bill. I presume the Congress and the BJP's position is the same on the issue as we have voted for the bill.

However, whenever visiting American leaders have told us in their private meetings about how they value their relations with our party, I have always told them that their act of denying visa to our leader Narendra Modi [ Images ] is an unfriendly act and US must revise its visa policy.

There are areas of concern in Indo-US relations. The present regime is becoming increasingly protectionist. Globalisation and the World Trade Organisation mechanism continued to prosper as far as it suited the global powers. Then you narrowed down the parameters of global trade and in sectors that you felt the low-cost economy will benefit, you changed the rules. The US is becoming more protectionist because it suits them now. In this case multilateral trade would be adversely affected.

On the eve of the presidential visit, India expects the US to take two clear positions. The US policy on global terror is well known. It should be first applied to Pakistan with equal force. So, what is true of western border of Pakistan must be equally true of its eastern border.

It can't be that Pakistan is an ally in the Afghan region so Americans go soft on them. As far as India is concerned Pakistan instigates terror here. So, we want America to maintain the same standard of sensitivity to terror to apply against Pakistan's western and eastern borders.

As far as Kashmir [ Images ] is concerned India's dignity and sovereignty must be respected.

You can't allow Pakistan to first use conventional war, then, soft-border terrorism and now instigate mob violence to destabilise the area. The Americans should firm up. Anyway, India would never accept the situation where to give comfort to Pakistan because of its co-operation with Americans on its western border America wants some concession for Pakistan on its eastern border. This will never be acceptable to any Indian.

On the issue of the US wanting India as a counter-balance to China, a lot is being said. China should recognise that India is an alternative power in the region. China has almost settled its boundary disputes with its neighbours. Now, to keep open its border dispute with India is something unexplainable. Under the garb of a Pakistan-friendly attitude it is encircling India but that won't dilute tension in the region. We have our own way of doing things with China.

As a part of India's larger strategy we want strong Indo-US relations. We welcome Barack Obama, head of world's most powerful democracy. I am sure his speech in the Central Hall of Parliament will reflect the hopes of both countries for a better understanding.

As told to Sheela Bhatt.

 

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Obama visit may not yield much - Wait for more rhetoric than substance -by Balbir​

Punj

On the eve of the much-hyped visit of US President Barack Obama, Washington DC has announced an enhanced military aid of $2.50 billion to the Pakistan Army for its anti-terror drive. The US Commander in Afghanistan has admitted that he has enabled top Taliban leaders to travel to Kabul for a discussion on possible peace moves that would enable
American troops to leave.

...
...
How could you expect the Pakistan Army to give up what it considers as its strategic asset — that is the Taliban especially and terror groups in general — working against India? Clearly, the Pakistan Army is pressing the US administration for a deal that would push India out of Afghanistan and keep all the terror training camps in tact. So long as it is against India, it obviously does not matter to America.

The hopes expressed by the Obama administration that Pakistan will use the huge military aid it is getting to eliminate terror groups in North Waziristan are nothing more than a wish. A Time magazine report adds: "The US sends some $2 billion a year to the Pakistani military for its role in combating terrorist groups along the border with Afghanistan, and another $ 1.5 billion a year is earmarked for civilian institutions.

...
...
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may gloat over the fact that the US President has endorsed his (Dr Singh's) foreign policy approach. But the bottom of this claim has been blown high with the exposure of the shopping list that the US President has sent to his host in advance. It has many items he wants from India; nothing whatsoever of concern to us.

America wants access to the Indian market for its agricultural products but India's access to high-tech US products would still be subject to convincing end-user riders. On India's request to support its case for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, there is no assurance from the US side; there is only a general statement that Washington DC is in favour of an expansion of the permanent membership. The last thing we have heard is that the visiting President will ease the visa restrictions on Indian applicants. That is just a distant hope, considering the visitor's commitment to his electorate to protect American jobs.

...
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The Indo-Pak dialogue for which Dr Manmohan Singh lowered India's guard has gone nowhere. The current situation in Pakistan with the Generals back in power behind the tottering civilian government gives little hope that the several terror outfits that the Pakistani military is nurturing will cease to mount more terror strikes against India. The hope that America would succeed in getting Pakistan on its side in eliminating terror as an instrument of Islamabad's foreign policy is fading. The Pakistan Generals calling the shots back in that country would count on the jihadi terror outfits in India to act as its fifth column.

 

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Obama is no friend of India​

Rajeev Srinivasan on why he dreads Obama's visit to India [ Images ] and a possible nasty November surprise.
Bitter experience has convinced me to be wary of dignitaries' State visits -- usually no good comes of them.

I was terrified that Manmohan Singh's [ Images ] so-called first State Visit to the US would culminate in something negative. Fortunately, nothing much happened.

Now I am extremely worried that Barack Obama's [ Images ] visit to India in November is likely to end up in a major setback for India's national interests.


There is a tradition of 'October surprises' in the US: Just before the biennial November elections, one of the parties (usually the incumbent) is accused of coming up with some ruse -- often a crisis -- that enables it to come out smelling of roses, thus swaying public opinion in its favour, and thereby winning the elections.

This year, indications are that Obama and the Democrats will lose their majority in the House of Representatives (the Lower House) and possibly in the Senate (the Upper House) as well.

It appears there is no 'October surprise' this time. Just in time for his India visit, Obama will be seen as a lame-duck with little chance of getting his agenda through a hostile US Congress (their parliament).

Obama's record has been less than stellar, belying certain great expectations in the first flush of an amazing love-fest.

In domestic matters, his handling of the financial crisis has been pedestrian, and there is severe job loss and economic pain; his one victory, in healthcare, may yet be Pyrrhic.

The 'change' and 'hope' and all that simply haven't come to anything.

In foreign affairs, too, there's nothing of great import.

Instead of a thriving, peaceful democracy, it is a broken country; the Americans are simply running for their lives.

The same, or worse, is true in Afghanistan. The recent spectacle of the closure of Pakistani border crossings, the arson on NATO supply trucks, and the abject apology by the Americans for their killing of some Pakistani troops -- this points to a hapless America that has been bamboozled by Pakistan's army [ Images ] and its spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence.

The ISI is running with the hares and hunting with the hounds most successfully.

Obama has been clear from day one about Afghanistan -- his plan has always been simple: Surge, bribe, declare victory and run like hell. The surge has happened, but it has apparently had no impact, as in places like Marjah.

Now Obama is running up against his ill-advised 2011 deadline for pulling out troops.

The only option Obama has on hand is to bribe -- that is, to bribe the ISI. Even the Afghan government has concluded that the Americans will flee, leaving them to the tender mercies of the Taliban [ Images ], the Haqqani network, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and other warlords.

So Obama has been showering largesse on the ISI, a billion here and another billion there, and surely more as per their latest strategic dialogue last week.

But money doesn't seem to be doing it -- the $25 billion that America has poured into Pakistan since 9/11 has sated the generals' greed for the moment. They want a bigger prize -- their strategic intent -- the dismemberment of India and the creation of their pet fantasy, Mughalistan, an emirate controlling the Indian subcontinent.

And that is the carrot that Obama is likely to offer them as part of his India trip. That will be the 'November surprise' for India.

It is likely that when Obama is in India, Manmohan Singh will announce a new 'package' which would, shorn of marketing verbiage, hand over either all of Jammu and Kashmir [ Images ] or just the Vale of Kashmir to the stone-throwers and other separatists who are fifth columnists of the ISI.

The stage has been set for this for some time. Witness how American military men as well as assorted grandees from the European Union have been stressing that Pakistan would be much more helpful if only they were 'not worried about India'.

In other words, India should sacrifice its territorial integrity for the benefit of the Americans, with no benefit to itself. Sounds fair, doesn't it?

Obama has demonstrated categorically that he is no friend of India, despite pious pronouncements by many Indians and Indian Americans.

In addition to everything else, the Obama administration's attitude is evident from recent disclosures about David Headley [ Images ] (the former Daood Gilani) and the likelihood that the US authorities may have had prior warnings about 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks [ Images ] that they did not share with the Indians.

The exertions of the Americans (and the Chinese, too) on behalf of the alleged rights of Kashmiris to secede would play a lot better if they had tolerated separatism in their country.

Some might remember that the Americans actually went to war (it is called the Civil War) to keep their country from fragmenting. And we also have seen the tenderness exhibited by the Chinese towards 'splittist' Tibetans and Uighurs.

But then, the Indian government has implied in many fora that it is willing to accept Pakistani demands -- witness astonishing statements in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Havana, Thimphu.

More recently, its hand-picked interlocutors to the separatists are talking openly about 'azaadi' and about amending the Constitution to accommodate them.

The possibility that this will encourage other separatists, and that hate-mongering ethnic-cleansers and terrorists are being rewarded for crimes against humanity, do not seem to unduly worry these worthies.

Ominously, Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani declared on October 16 (as reported in The Economic Times) that 'there will be good news about Kashmir soon'. What else could Gilani possibly mean other than Obama's November surprise?

And in the middle of all this comes the nihilistic histrionics of famous one-horse novelist Arundhati Roy [ Images ]. This is someone who can always be relied upon to support any cause that is anti-India. This reminds me of the possibly apocryphal story about how the US application for citizenship once used to ask people if they would advocate the overthrow of the US by violence or sedition. It seems most people chose 'sedition'!

If Roy were given that choice regarding India, I suspect she would insist on answering, 'Both'.

Roy reminds me of the novel The Man Without a Country, about an American who renounced his country during a treason trial and declared that he hated it so much he never wished to see it or hear the word again.

The Americans obliged, and put him on a naval brig, whereon he spent the rest of his life out at sea.

If India were a normal country, its leaders would offer Roy the choice of fine accommodation on a naval brig in international waters, or domicile in her favorite nations, Pakistan or China.

There is just one small problem with the latter -- in a few short days, Messrs Kayani or Hu Jintao will offer to surrender to India on a single condition: That India take the shrill Arundhati back.

Be that as it may, Roy is merely a side-show. The real danger is that the Americans -- who demonstrate daily that they have no leverage over Pakistan -- seem to have some kind of a hold over India's leaders, and the stage has been set for a grand bargain wherein India exits J&K.

Obama will then be able to declare victory in Afghanistan and take his boys home.

In the feverish minds of many, this is considered a good outcome, and it will be sold as such to the Indian public, thanks to the Indian media's known ability to manufacture consent.

A fait accompli is in the works, which naturally will solve nothing. The ISI will then demand Assam, Malabar, and Hyderabad.

 

[ajtr]

President Obama's India Visit – China and Pakistan Watch With Care​

Bhaskar Roy, C3S paper No 644 dated October 28, 2010
US President Barack Obama's three-day visit to India may not produce some earth-shaking bilateral agreements, but it is sending seismic waves around Asia, especially in China and Pakistan.

From India's point of view the expectations start from bilateral interests. The "Next Step in Strategic Partnership (NSSP), and "Shared Values" between India and the United States were crafted to seek how the largest democracy in the world and the strongest democracy in world would build trust, and yet remain independent to agree to disagree on certain issues. It is a mature approach which no one can find fault with.

On a large scale the people of India are waiting to hear what President Obama has to say on restricting visas to Indian professionals, restricting outsourcing and placing penalty on American companies which outsource work to India. The USA cannot press for opening the Indian market further to their agricultural products, while hugely subsidizing their agricultural sector which works against India's agricultural sector, imposing western policies on environment and climate change while declining to share technology and provide assistance to the developing countries, among other countries.

The differences on nuclear trade issues between India and the USA are getting narrowed down. The main obstruction from the US is to the nuclear accident liability law enacted recently by the Indian parliament. The US, hopefully, has been able to appreciate the Indian position, especially against the backdrop of the human disaster caused by the Union Carbide gas leak in Bhopal 26 years ago, in which the American company got away very lightly. A nuclear accident can cause much greater tragedy, and adequate compensation must be on hand immediately to address such a situation. But pressing for the extradition of former Union Carbide Chairman Mr. Anderson to face manslaughter charges would not be suitable during the Presidential visit.

American politicians and those in administration, as well as their advisors who are in and out of the government have various issues about media, some harbouring a hold back from the cold war era. This is because of myopic vision and lack of interest in looking at sub-regional, regional and global changes in the new perspective. India of the 21st century by no means is the India of the 1970s or 1980s or even the 1990s.

For example, some in and around USA's nuclear policy-making establishment were dismayed with the India-US nuclear deal on the issue of proliferation, despite admission by the American government that India's record is absolutely clear.

This mistrust lingers even today in the US Department of Commerce and defence. While pressing to sell military arms and equipment including advanced military aircraft to India, the reluctance to transfer high technology and dual use technology remains. In addition, sanctions on Indian entities like the DRDO, lSRO and others following India's May 1998 nuclear tests still remain. All those do not spell either "strategic partnership" or "shared value".

No true relationship can be built upon a foundation where mistrust still remains. The US expects a business of $10 billion from nuclear trade, and far more from defence sales. These will create new jobs in the US where the employment index is still to improve.

It would be simplistic for the US to expect such huge sales to India without full trust, and concrete assurance that spare parts and technology will follow. India cannot accept a situation where the tail of an aircraft is in India, and the Congress pass an amendment by which the rest of the aircraft is prohibited from export to India. It happened after the 1998 nuclear tests, leaving a bitter taste in India. Russia scores here over the US. They follow up with spare parts and technology.

The US may consider taking a page out of India-Russia Defence Co-operation. For example, the joint production of the Supersonic Brahmos Missile which has all the three versions of land, air and sea launched. There would be an India-US co-operation in a range of new generation arms and equipment. That would strength strategic partnership.

Another high priority on the Indian agenda is for its membership of an expanded US Security Council or the Perm-5. President Obama has gone only to the extent of supporting a major role for India in the expanded UN structure. To Indians, this is not enough. It would be a setback to bilateral relations if the US bows to China's insistence and that of the "coffee club" to keep India out of the UNSC. This would be a signal test for the India-US strategic partnership on the "next step".

India and the US are co-operating and sharing intelligence in the war against terrorism. But how much are Americans sharing intelligence where Pakistan is concerned. US officials claim that they had given all information on David Headly, the US-Pakistani, who recced Mumbai on behalf of Pakistan supported terrorist organization, the LET, and Pakistan's intelligence agency the ISI.

According to the Indian government, no information on Headly was received from the US about the Mumbai terrorist attacks. Indian agencies faced a lot of stone-walling before they could get access to Headly in US custody earlier this year. The US agencies were aware of Headly's activities long before, but did not apprehend him. This is a repeat of the Pakistani nuclear proliferation, Dr. A.Q.Khan. The CIA knew what he was doing, but did not take any action. This mind set of the US has to change.

It is no secret that Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the freedom of international shipping in the South China Sea will be discussed during President Obama's visit. This is not surprising because they portend developments that could derail stability from one end of Asia to the other. It is not only India's concern but that of many other countries who have a stake.

The recent US-Pakistan dialogue (Washington, Oct. 20-22) saw increased American financial support for Pakistan, especially for military assets to counter terrorism. The signals, however, suggested that US has a no option but to depend on the Pakistani Army to counter terrorism, and prepare for an exit from Afghanistan.

There are three questions for India. What can the US do to curb and eradicate Pakistan sponsored terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir? How does US see India's role in Afghanistan after US withdrawal because, otherwise, India will have to find alternatives. What is the US position on the new Pak-China nuclear deal which threatens the very edifice of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to prevent nuclear proliferation?

Pakistan did not get much encouragement from the talks on the proposed Pak-China nuclear deal, an issue high on Pakistani foreign Minister Qureshi's agenda. The issue is far more than China's "Civilian" nuclear support to Pakistan for its energy requirements. Especially for China, if this deal goes through it will be the first step for Beijing to shape international relations as it deems fit. That is, in the 21st century China will replace, what they perceive, as global rules forced by the west. China, emphatically, is striving for a reversal of the established order.

China is looking at President Obama's India visit as reenergizing Washington's effort to encircle China, using India as a key factor in this strategy. India's China experts, especially policy makers, are blissfully unaware that Chinese India experts, the armed force, and the foreign ministry, see India as a country which can match and outwit China in strategic actions and counter it. Many Indian experts have been swamped by Chinese propaganda or psychological warfare that Beijing does not even consider New Delhi as a serious competitor. A close study of Chinese strategic writings over the last twenty years at least, reveal that they view India as a difficult contender which stands against its domination of Asia.

The Chinese hold a lot by historical relations and connections. To the Chinese, Pakistan is a new born country which loathes India on issues of Pakistan and the independence of Bangladesh from Pakistan. Beyond this, however, is India's historical and cultural relations with South East Asia and the Far East with relations conducted through religion and philosophy. It is unlike the Chinese army invading and marauding Indonesia, and China sponsoring people's revolution in these countries between 1950s and 1970s. China's relations with its eastern and South East Asian neighbours are based on compulsion. There is very little trust, even from Myanmar.

Nevertheless, China is in a hurry to establish its hegemony on these countries before the hollowness of its edifice comes to the fore. Nuclear power can threaten, and massive conventional military power can intimidate. But that is for a time only. More powerful stake holders are not going to stand by and watch.

Very recent writing in the Chinese official media, which is the only window to assess Chinese thinking, suggests how they are viewing President Obama's visit to India. These writings are aimed at influencing views of both India and the US strategic partnership.

The following are some of the questions that China tried to inject in the Obama visit context (i) "Shared Values" in India-US relationship is aimed at China, with the US bringing together Japan, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries to encircle China (ii) China sees a virtual anti-China alliance in the making which could debilitate China unless it handles issues astutely (iii) in relation with China's assertiveness, it sees an India-US strategic relation to influence the countries from Far East to South East Asia (iv) advocates India-China co-operation to counter US and western strategy to benefit from this (v) advocates India-China co-operation to emerge as big powers and shape the "Asia Century" (vi) blames sections of the Indian media to rake up issues like Chinese intrusions along the borders, and issues of paper visas for Kashmir domiciled Indians, as small issues (vii) encourages India's independent foreign policy towards China, and (viii) says India will only use USA but would not follow the US line. The Chinese media also reveals some apprehension on India-Russia relations.

It is clear that Beijing's propaganda machinery is working overtime to divide India's relations with USA and Russia and vice versa, and create some mistrust. The Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also been given the responsibility to engage in psychological warfare.

Briefly, India has to work through this maze in working with the USA and China. The only interest is self interest. China is looking at India to bail it from American pressure which ranges from currency manipulation charges, to human rights abuse, minority issues and development in Asia Pacific region. India has to engage with the US, but be vigilant about China's double speak.

(The writer, Mr Bhaskar Roy, is an eminent China analyst based in New Delhi.Email:[email protected])

 

[ajtr]

India under China's threat of war, Will Obama be able to avert?​

MIL/GBA, Oct 28, 2010



New Delhi, India: October 28, 2010 – IR Summary/GBA –The God Believers Association (GBA), a world peace mission body with other social dedications in the spirit of Copenhagen Accord, has expressed their concern that China's strategies and developing immense powers on all fronts, is not a healthy sign for India. the danger of war may strike at the doorstep from its neighbors?

The great developments by China on massive scales in different regions and areas, indicate a big plan by China to keep an exclusive hold of this continent by superseding India in all manners whether it is military might including nuclear capabilities or other fields, China's aim seems to be quite clear, despite diplomatic language which both countries use to please each other.

China has already made the surrounding of India ready for a joint attack, which apparently includes their policy of collectively involving Pakistan, Bangla Desh, North Korea, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar against India in some way or the other.

Cosmo Theorist Dr. Raj Baldev, Lead Man of the GBA said, "China is expanding all round and their intentions are pin pointing towards India and India alone."

GBA President said, " I clearly apprehend that China may declare war against India from North East, Kashmir and Indian Ocean at an appropriate stage, for which they are terribly engaged in building their might to play a final act of expansionism against India. Their first threat may start from Kashmir."

"China is taking full interest in Kashmir and helping Pakistan on this score whole heartedly, and they are in a mood to confront India at any time openly through Kashmir, "Cosmo Theorist said.

He said, "Even on a trivial matter like issue of Visas, China rejected India's assertions that Beijing should respect its sensitivities on Kashmir by not issuing stapled visas but China on Tuesday said its policy of issuing stapled visas to Kashmiris would remain unchanged.

Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist, today, " China has been issuing stapled Visas to Kashmiris for the last two years and the matter worsened when in July this year they intended to issue the same type of Visa to India's Northern Area Commander Lt. Gen. BS Jaswal."

"India requested China to honor India's sentiments but China refused. Believe it or not, India is going to face a big problem and the world shall eventually have to face the IIIrd World War, US President Obama's efforts might avert the situation, but how far?

Dr. Raj Baldev, GBA Lead Man said, "I appeal to all Indians not to take this matter casually but to keep a watch on China's developments, which they are conniving with Pakistan in Kashmir to launch a big attack, The Indians should keep themselves nationally integrated if they want to save India from being falling to some other power."

"China and Pakistan both know India's weakness that Indians are disunited; ensure that our national integration is the biggest strength and it can give a befitting reply to China and Pakistan, but the will and cooperation of the people are very much desired, which is normally being wasted by our political leaders."

"India is under threat by China more than Pakistan. As per China's plan, they will later on swallow Pakistan or compel it to act under its sole dictation." Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist, said.

Dr. Raj Baldev finally said to the members and non members of GBA, " I hope Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who is a very soft spoken personality, would take up the matter of Visa with his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao in Hanoi to morrow, and I wish him the best of luck."

 

[ejazr]

'Apprehension For Obama, Nostalgia For Bush Is Ironic'

Former Indian ambassador Ronen Sen played a crucial role in India clinching the civilian nuclear deal with the United States. During his stint in Washington, he not only established a personal equation with former American president George W. Bush but also came to know Barack Obama long before he stepped into the White House. In an interview with Pranay Sharma, Sen talks about the personalities of the two American leaders, the growing Indo-US relations and the expectations from President Obama's visit to India. Excerpts:

Why is President Barack Obama coming to India?

As the president of the world's oldest and most powerful democracy, he's making it a point to visit the world's largest and fastest growing democracy in the first half of his first term of presidency.

What do you think India is expecting from this visit?

Our primary objective would be the reaffirmation at the highest level of our strategic partnership with the US, for our mutual benefit and for promoting shared global goals.

You have known both Obama and his predecessor, George W. Bush. How different are they as persons?

Obama is a highly charismatic and inspirational public speaker. Anyone who has read his books also realises that he's as compassionate as cerebral. In private meetings, he comes across as very courteous, soft-spoken, and a very attentive listener. He appears deliberative and meticulous in his approach and has an amazing grasp of complex details. According to his close associates, he listens to a number of people, but decisions are very much his own. He has repeatedly demonstrated his vision, decisiveness and leadership.

George W. Bush, on the other hand, tended to look only at the large picture, and didn't delve into details. His directives were broad in terms of objectives. Once he made up his mind, he was firm about implementation; his decisions were based on what he thought was the right thing to do. He tended to rely as much on his gut instincts as on objective analyses.

You knew Obama before he became the US president. What was your first impression about him? Did you think then that he could become the president?

I first met Obama in 2005, soon after he was elected as US Senator, at his office at the US Senate. He was such an attentive and patient listener that I unwittingly deviated from my usual practice and spoke longer than I should have. His responses were lucid, precise. I was very impressed by the clarity of his vision. But, frankly, I had no inkling then that I'd within a short time be present during his inauguration as president.

Many believe Bush has been the best American president for India. Do you think Obama can match or surpass him?

Each US president leaves the distinctive stamp of his personality on his administration. You will recall that some of us ridiculed Bush for not remembering the name of our then prime minister during his first presidential campaign. Even after all that he did for India, a number of politicians, not just our leftist comrades, showed scant respect not only for Bush but our own traditions of hospitality during his visit to India. Obama's election campaign was followed more closely in India than any previous US elections, and his victory was widely hailed here. Therefore, it is ironic that there is nostalgia for the Bush years and apprehensions about the Obama administration. It's true that Bush had a deep personal fascination and an abiding admiration for India, well before he became president. He did more for India than any of his predecessors. We should honour his legacy.

What does this imply for Obama?

This certainly doesn't imply that we should not show due appreciation and respect for Obama's commitment and contributions to our partnership. For instance, within days of my taking over as ambassador in August 2004, I received a report from our consul-general in Chicago about Obama joining our Independence Day parade for about 90 minutes. I don't recall any other US president or other world leader with such a track record. I also recall president-elect Obama's telephone call to me within a few hours of 26/11 and his strong sense of solidarity and support for India.

There were some mis-steps in the first few months of the Obama administration, when his team wasn't fully in place. But we must remember the several special gestures he made thereafter, to underline his recognition and respect for our country and prime minister. There is now no doubt about the priority accorded by Obama to what he has referred to as one of the defining relationships of the 21st century.

What can the two countries achieve under Obama that can match the nuke deal signed under Bush?

The nuclear deal was unprecedented—there's no historical precedence of a single-country exemption from an international regime. Its final approval also marked the first time ever that the US Congress deviated from its own prescribed procedures to adopt the deal in 2008. The Obama administration and our government have now just completed steps to enable the implementation of this initiative. It is unrealistic to expect the replication of such a far-reaching global game-changer.

Can we expect any other such big idea from Obama?

We should focus now on the big picture rather than a new big idea.

What does this big picture constitute?

The big picture would cover the global challenges posed by religious extremism and terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, climate change and inequitable development between and within countries, energy and water scarcity, food security, natural disasters and pandemics, cyber security, freedom of movement in the global commons, unilateral assertions of territorial claims and so on. We need closer, more sustained consultations on global and Asian security frameworks.

Does the big picture also include meeting the challenges posed by a rising China?

We are not only interested in a multipolar world but a multipolar Asia. Discussions on China will be natural. But it's not our intention, nor, to the best of my knowledge, America's intention to contain or encircle China. It's legitimate for us to expect China to reciprocate this approach in full measure. There is growing recognition of India's stabilising and balancing role in Asia.

Can India and the US play a bigger role together in Afghanistan?

Yes, most certainly. There is no doubt about our concerns. The US has shown increasing recognition of India's positive role in Afghanistan, despite protestations to the contrary by Pakistan. We will have to engage in confidential and constructive consultations with the US and other regional players as well.

What can Obama take from India that will convince the American public that strong ties with India help them too?

Fortunately, he will not have to rely on any spin but focus only on facts to send the right message to the American people. Since 2004, trade, investments and job creation have truly become a two-way street, benefiting the US as much as India. Obama may seek greater access to the growing Indian market to help him contain growing protectionist sentiments in the US Congress. We should be open to constructive discussions resulting in decisions that will benefit both countries.

To describe President Obama's visit to India a success, what is the one thing we should look for?

Look at the big picture. And in the bilateral context, the extent to which we can move forward in giving more economic content to our partnership.

 

[anoop_mig25]

IF OBAMA REMOVES INDIAN FIRMS FROM ENTITY LIST THEN it WOULD OBAMA MOMENT IN INDIA

 

[Tshering22]

One thing pleases me greatly that unlike the treacherous political elite, the strategists are at least disenchanted from Obama's anti-Indian agenda and more Pak-China friendship. The man has ruined everything Bush administration tried to change and now due to US agents in Indian media over-hyping the visit, the coward GOI would be pressed into doing deals that are further loss for India that includes situation in J&K. If Congress can allow that terrorist Geelani and his pet b*tch Suzanna Arundhati Roy to talk against India standing on Indian soil, then anything is possible.

Army should warn the central government of no misadventure in Kashmir or compromise.

 

[SHASH2K2]

U.S. acknowledges India's role in inking key AfPak agreement​

The Obama Administration has publicly acknowledged the significant role played by India in the signing of the historic transit trade agreement between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which took more than four decades of painful negotiations between Kabul and Islamabad.

Special U.S. Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke said the U.S. is grateful to India for the key role played by it, in the absence of which Afghanistan and Pakistan would not have been able the sign the agreement in this regard in Kabul a day earlier.

"I'm very grateful to the Indian government for not interposing any objections to this bilateral trade treaty," Mr. Holbrooke told reporters at a special State Department briefing.

The Transit Trade Agreement, signed in Kabul on Friday by the commerce ministers of the two neighbouring nations, according to Mr. Holbrooke is the most important deal between Pakistan and Afghanistan since Pakistan's independence.

"It is more than a trade agreement; it is a political breakthrough as well, and it represents a move in the direction of one of the most critical goals that we have in that region, which is a closer relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan," he said.

"The 1965 agreement between India, Pakistan and Afghanistan did not have adequate implementation machinery and never really got going. The attempt to negotiate a trilateral trade agreement was not going to work in the current environment," Mr. Holbrooke said giving an insight into the process in which he was closely involved.

"We recommended to all three countries that Pakistan and Afghanistan have a bilateral negotiation with a clear understanding, which is written into the agreement, that if at any time India and Pakistan begin to work together towards their own trade agreements that Afghanistan will be able to enter those on an equal basis," he said.

"The clause is called the National Treatment Clause.

Some Americans would call it Most Favoured Nation, but National Treatment is what it's now called.

And that was very key and I'm very grateful to the Indian Government for not interposing any objections to this bilateral trade treaty and we hope that the Indians and Pakistan will find a way to join it at their own pace. But we will leave that to New Delhi and Islamabad to work on," Mr. Holbrooke said.

The top U.S. official said the Indians were fully informed on this.

"I went to New Delhi, I talked to my friends in the foreign ministry and in the prime minister's office, and again, just to repeat, I'm very grateful to the Indians for not interjecting any concerns on this," Mr. Holbrooke said.

"The agreement was announced on July 19th in Islamabad during the trip that Secretary (of State, Hillary) Clinton made to lead the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue. And now both governments had ratified it, and the ceremony was held to coincide with the ROC Drill, partially in recognition of the fact that the U.S. had played such a leadership role," he said.

"The decision to negotiate to completion the trade agreement was announced at the White House by President Obama on May 7th of last year. The negotiation had been going on for 44 years without success.

With American intermediation, support to both sides, an agreement was reached and initialed on July 19th, and yesterday it was signed in Kabul," Mr. Holbrooke said.

 

[ajtr]

Musings in Mumbai​

President Barack Obama will address a "town hall-type" meet at St Xavier's College during his Mumbai visit. Express News Service, October 27

Dear students of India,
I stand here today, humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. Ooops, sorry that was my inaugural address, someone must have swiped the notes for my Mumbai speech. Who did you say? The ISI? Oh no, I don't think they did it, this is the handiwork of none other than Sarah Palin.
So"¦ummm"¦"¦this speech will have to do, I guess. Let me improvise. Why am I humbled? I say to you, anyone who has to sell billions of dollars of fighter jets in the face of cut-throat competition from the Europeans and the Russians will be humbled by the sheer magnitude of the task. That job is rendered doubly difficult because I have to sell arms both to you and to Pakistan and to preach world peace at the same time. Yet I have not only done this but have also managed to bag a Nobel Peace Prize.

The challenges we face in selling these fighter planes are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, India — they will be met.

Why am I grateful for the trust that you have bestowed? Because you trust us in spite of our arms for Pakistan, in spite of all that happened during the Bhopal gas tragedy, in spite of our hobnobbing with the Taliban, in spite of David Headley. On this day, we gather here because you have chosen hope over fear, listening to a crappy speech over enjoying your Diwali holidays. In return, I too give you my trust, a trust backed by my aircraft carrier and seven of our frigates anchored in the seas off Mumbai.

As for the sacrifices borne by your ancestors, I am, as you know, a great admirer of Gandhi, waging wars in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, always keeping his principles in mind. That is why I visited the Gandhi museum in this great city and had goat's milk there instead of my usual cheeseburger.

To the people of poor nations like ours, you must pledge to work alongside us to make our banks flourish and let our exports flow. You must help us in putting an end to the scourge of outsourcing. You can no longer remain indifferent to the sufferings of the poor American people. In return we offer you our friendship and, who knows, if you buy our stuff, the promise of a permanent seat in the Security Council.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. We are at war, against a far-reaching network of Republicans. Elections have been lost; seats shed. My popularity rankings have reached their nadir. Yet here in India, a recent poll has found that seven in ten of you have confidence in me. I am tempted to stay back among you amazing people, here in your city of Mumbai.

As I consider the road that unfolds before me, I say to you, in the words of the Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm the strength of my tummy; to have that precious gift, that noble thing, passed on from generation to generation: the time has come to eat a vada pav in Mumbai.

Manas Chakravarty is Consulting Editor, Mint. The views expressed by the author are personal.

 

[ajtr]

Symbolism in Obama`s India visit worries Pakistan​

ISLAMABAD: The government is in two minds about US President Barack Obama`s visit to India, especially over the symbolism hidden in the decision to pick Mumbai`s Taj Hotel for starting the trip as it was the focal point of the Nov 2008 terrorist strikes on the city. New Delhi has all along been blaming Islamabad for the siege, albeit in diplomatic jargon.

Mr Obama is likely to make a statement on the war against terror from the hotel.

Anxious eyes in Islamabad will meticulously examine how the American president manages ties with India without impacting on long-term partnership with Pakistan. Dawn

Senior officials in background interviews with confirmed that they had been reassured by the Americans that, unlike the British prime minister`s allegations of terror export from Pakistan during his visit to India, there would be no brazen anti-Pakistan remarks.

Nonetheless, they are worried that President Obama will try to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan to act against leaders of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its reincarnations; and certainly to speed up the trial of suspects in the Mumbai attack. But the forthcoming statement on terrorism is not Pakistan`s only concern. What Obama, during his three-day stay in India due to begin on Nov 6, says or doesn`t say on Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi`s long-standing desire for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and India-US military cooperation would not only be important for Pakistan, but also for the future of Islamabad-Washington ties.

Jammu and Kashmir and particularly the unrest in Indian held Kashmir in which 111 people have been killed over the past four months is one of Pakistan`s top concerns. The Pakistani leadership, with a belief that the Americans could facilitate talks on Kashmir, has desired that Mr Obama speak about the human rights violations in Kashmir during his stay in India.

Efforts have also been made by Pakistan through diplomatic channels to convince President Obama to meet Kashmiri leaders.

But, sources say, it is unlikely that either of Islamabad`s desires will be fulfilled because Mr Obama can ill afford to offend his hosts, particularly at a time when the Americans are eyeing $10.5 billion defence contracts that Delhi has to give.

However, diplomatic sources say that Mr Obama during closed door meetings with his Indian interlocutors will address the Kashmir issue and press for resumption of India-Pakistan talks on the longstanding dispute.

Equally important for the Pakistanis is the position Mr Obama may take on India`s bid for the UNSC membership.

Some analysts believe that India is already using some of the leverages it has with Washington to extract a statement of support in this respect from Mr Obama.

It may be far-fetched, but some are definitely reading the recently enacted Indian parliament`s nuclear accident liability law in this light, which would leave nuclear suppliers liable for damages from an accident in future. This has made the US civilian energy industry wary of future investments in India because of heavy compensation burden attached to any deal they might ink.

It may be one of the bargaining chips in Indian hand not only for getting the UNSC support promise, but also for forcing the Americans to shed their reluctance to transferring high technology and dual use technology in defence deals in return for agreeing to bring the stringent nuclear-liability regime in line with international norms, which can be acceptable to the US nuclear equipment suppliers.

What could be further important for Pakistan is how Mr Obama defines India`s future role in Afghanistan.

But, it is not completely dark for Pakistan. Islamabad`s foreign policy gurus are sure that President Obama during his stay in India will be extremely cautious in dealing with issues concerning Pakistan — this is partially because of lessons learnt from Nato choppers` aerial incursion episode and its subsequent fallout.

While Mr Obama wants to go to any extent for pleasing the Indians for clinching $10.5 billion defence contracts, he will be the last person to annoy the Pakistanis and risk losing their crucial support for ending Afghan war, analysts believe.

One cannot discount President Obama himself telling Pakistan`s delegation for the strategic dialogue in Washington that there couldn`t be more pro-Pakistan American president than himself. This is highly reassuring for the Pakistani leadership.

The cautious optimism in Pakistan`s Foreign Office corridors was reflected by spokesman Abdul Basit, while commenting on Mr Obama`s visit: "We do not have any concern. Frankly speaking, the US President`s visit should help promote stability and peace in South Asia. This is what we are expecting because the US is major power and it has influence across the world.

"We hope President Obama during his visit to India would take up those issues which are central to ensuring peace and stability in this region."

Former foreign secretary Shamshad Ahmed, talking to Dawn on President Obama`s upcoming visit, said: "Anything in India-US relations that affects Pakistan`s interests will be crucial for us."

He said he was little concerned about Mr Obama not visiting Pakistan along with India. "Now that we have got a commitment for 2011, we should prepare for the visit and get the maximum in tangible terms," he added.

 

[nrj]

Defence platter piled high before Obama visit


India and the US will bring to the table heaps of unfinished defence business — ranging from outstanding military agreements to expanding US military aid to Pakistan to discussions on possible weapons sales — during President Barack Obama's first visit to the country. The defence ministry may have ruled out the likelihood of any side pulling off a coup, but both India and the US will find themselves locked in intense negotiations to resolve long-pending issues and make sure defence cooperation is on a fast growth trajectory.

India is expected to voice concerns over expanding US military aid to Pakistan in the form of the latest F-16 fighter jets, missiles, laser-guided bomb kits and surveillance drones, ostensibly to support Pakistani forces engaged in counter-insurgency.

The US has just announced a $2 billion (Rs 9,000 crore) military package for Pakistan spread over the next five years. New Delhi insists Pakistan is misusing the aid for shoring up its military capabilities against India in the guise of fighting terrorism. "We want the US to address these concerns. This issue will definitely figure in the talks," a defence ministry source said.

Obama's visit will see the US making a renewed pitch for completing all outstanding military agreements with India, including proposals to safeguard American defence technologies transferred to New Delhi, share geospatial data and guarantee each other logistics support.

On the table

India will be buying four more P8I planes for $1 billion (Rs 4,500 crore). It also ordered six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft from the US for $1 billion (Rs 4,500 crore) in 2008.

Talks are in final stages for buying 10 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III military transport aircraft worth $5.8 billion (Rs 26,100 crore).
Team Obama will also be batting for US aerospace and defence giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin who are locked in competition with European and Russian rivals eyeing the $10.2 billion (Rs 45,900 crore) contract to supply 126 fighter planes to the Indian Air Force.

US law lays down that sensitive technologies can be transferred to another country only after signing the CISMOA (Communications, Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement) to protect classified security data.

India has to sign the CISMOA if the American platforms it is buying have to come with hi-tech systems used for collecting and disseminating information. Such platforms come equipped with C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) systems, which can be transferred only if such an agreement is in place.

It also ordered six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft from the US for $1 billion (Rs 4,500 crore) in 2008. Talks are in final stages for buying 10 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III military transport aircraft worth $5.8 billion (Rs 26,100 crore).

The US is also pitching for the pending Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement to facilitate sharing of geospatial data and the Logistics Support Agreement. Under the LSA, the two countries will have to guarantee each other logistics support, refuelling and berthing facilities for their warships and fighters, spares and sundry services on a reimbursable or equal value exchange basis.

India, however, has made it clear more negotiations are required to resolve areas of differences.

 

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200 top American CEOs coming with Obama

WASHINGTON: With trade high on his agenda, some 200 odd top US business chiefs, including soft drink giant Pepsico's India-born CEO Indra Nooyi , are expected to join US President Barack Obama on his India visit next month.

Also expected are Honeywell CEO David M Cote, who co-chairs the India-US CEO Forum with Tata group chairman Ratan Tata .

So is Terry McGraw, CEO of leading publishing house McGraw Hill, who took over from Nooyi as the chairman of the US Indian Business Council , representing 300 top US companies last June.

Two more of 12 US forum members, Louis Chênevert, CEO of aerospace major United Technologies Corp, and Ellen Kullman, chief executive of chemicals giant DuPont , may also be joining.

But there is no word yet whether Citigroup's Indian-American CEO Vikram Pandit is going.

Andrew Liveris, Chairman, CEO and President of The Dow Chemical Company had skipped last June's forum meeting here at the height of Bhopal gas leakage controversy and it's not known whether he would give Delhi a miss too.

Only last week underscoring the "significance" of the "important economic relationship" with India, Obama's Press Secretary Robert Gibbs voiced the US hope of getting "some tangible results" from Obama's India visit.

Describing it as "an important economic relationship," he also made clear that Obama will talk a lot about "what we have to do to create jobs, to grow our exports, to ensure (and) that it just doesn't fall on American consumers to drive world demand."

"That's a lot of what you'll hear the President talk about on that trip, and we'll hopefully have some tangible results from it," Gibbs said.

US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke , who would be accompanying the president, also told a medical technology conference that "trade is high on the agenda" in New Delhi.

And to get Washington and Delhi to "catch up to the business and innovation cooperation that is already happening in New York and Mumbai," as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put it, the CEO Forum has recommended several "interesting and ambitious ideas" in four core areas of infrastructure; clean energy; education and e-health/biotechnology