Obama's India Visit

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Opportunity for Obama ​

David Coleman's terrorism and Bhopal are befouling Indo-US relations, says N.V.Subramanian.

18 October 2010: Whatever the spin by governments in India and the US, president Barack Obama's November state visit to this country will be a washout closing resembling disaster unless America seriously revisits three issues. One is the matter of publically and unequivocally supporting India's bid for permanent membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC). The two other things focus on two individuals, David Coleman Headley and Warren Anderson, who must be turned over to India in the interests of justice. Without clear and apparent movement on these issues, obviously initiated by India but actively encouraged by the US, Obama's visit will create no ripples here and become a case of lost opportunities.
The stark fact is that few things excite India and presumably Indians as much as cricket, Bollywood gossip, festivities, having fun, and making money. Indians are not by and large political in nature (Hinduism is a greatly individualizing religion) and they are no less insular than Americans, although their knowledge of the world (among the literate sections) and a desire to travel overseas (if only to shop) is greater. A visiting American president ordinarily makes little impact on the lives of Indians and Obama would generate as much or as little momentary blip as his predecessors did who toured India.
Except, perhaps, in recent times, Bill Clinton. Clinton has left a more lasting impact on India than other US presidents before or after him. Clinton of course is a wildly charismatic man but he opened to India in a manner other presidents did not and it enabled him to seal a greater than mere political relationship with this country. That bond with Clinton extends to his wife, Hillary, the US secretary of state, and it is a certainty that if she ever runs for the American presidency again, she would be a favourite of India, unless there is a more provenly-friendly Republican Party candidate.
Barack Obama has the capacity to do a second Clinton, but it does not appear that he has looked at his forthcoming visit to India beyond the gridlines drawn by the Washington bureaucracy. Obama has to reach out to the Indian people if he wants to energize Indo-US ties over and above a sterile strategic relationship, and the three issues mentioned above are critical to this exercise.
Take the UNSC permanent membership ambitions of India. It provides the real test of how far the US is willing to go to assist India in the emerging world power structure. It is no gainsaid that ultimately India has to prove worthy of such UNSC status, and that it has to exercise the powers it has to assist with creating a global environment of democratic peace. But equally, the US cannot take a position of opposing India's ambitions, preferring Japan, while expecting warm and friendly ties with this country. If India has to strive alone to join the UNSC with veto powers (which, in the ultimate crunch, is how it will be), then it will have no incentive to explore deep and enduring ties with the United States. Their relationship would then be marked and marred by opportunism. If Obama wants to change this, then it is clear what he has to do. In India, he must ringingly endorse India's claim for veto powers, and promise all of his -- and the US's -- assistance.
Issue number two pertains to Warren Anderson. Following the renewed uproar over the Bhopal gas tragedy, the Manmohan Singh government reluctantly has pledged to move to get Anderson to stand trial in India. There have been attempts by Obama administration officials to pressure India to cease pursuing Anderson, and its consequences have been damaging for the US in a different sector. It is clear that the aftershock of Bhopal tied the hands of the Manmohan Singh government on the nuclear liability bill, with a united opposition making it impossible to give any concessions to foreign reactor makers, American and others. The lesson from this is that unless the Bhopal episode is closed to the entire satisfaction of India and Indians -- and at a minimum, Anderson has to stand trial here for this -- US businesses, especially those in sensitive sectors like nuclear energy, will be the subject of extraordinary suspicions, to the point of disabling them to strike roots in the vast and growing Indian market.
David Coleman Headley is the third and most important focal point. When he was first exposed as a Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) terrorist scout for 26/11 and a US undercover agent, this writer was among the first to analyze that America was protecting him. This writer also made the point that the US decided to arrest Headley only when his plans to target the Danish paper carrying the Prophet's cartoons had reached an advanced stage. In other words, the US stood by and watched 26/11 happen but only moved to stop Headley when core Western interests were threatened. Recently, the US and NATO carried out a month-long bombing campaign against Al-Qaeda and Taliban targets in North Waziristan when a plot to attack several European cities came to light. On the other hand, there was no decisive action to prevent 26/11, except a routine tip-off to Indian authorities with vague timelines.
Every day brings more revelations about Headley, 26/11 and the shameful complicity of US covert services which, at the very least, will scupper Obama's visit. The latest is that one of Headley's three wives informed US officials about his LeT terrorist connections and suspicions about a 26/11 plan complete with tape-recordings and other evidence nearly a year before the Bombay carnage but that they ignored her and continued to protect him as an operative. In the face of such media disclosures, the US says it gave India access to Headley. Earlier, India was demanding Headley's extradition, but dropped it probably under US pressure. But new revelations about Headley are again making Indian public opinion deeply suspicious of US intentions vis-a-vis India, robbing its counterterrorist thrust of credibility, and letting an impression grow that Pakistan has a free pass to terrorize India.
The only way to salvage the situation is for the US to turn over Headley to India, overriding the judicial guarantees given to him that prevent this. In a situation where India held a terrorist who had harmed the US, America would not permit Indian legal procedures to stand in the way of getting him. The Manmohan Singh government immediately must have to make a strong pitch to gain custody of Headley. It will forthwith convey the seriousness of the issue and send a message to the US not to toy with intimate Indian concerns and anxieties. It will also give notice to Pakistan that India will hunt down Pakistani terrorists to the ends of the world.
If Barack Obama cannot promise delivery on any of the three discussed subjects, then he should be prepared for a non-visit in November.
N.V.Subramanian is Editor, www.NewsInsight.net, and writes internationally on strategic affairs. He has authored two novels, University of Love (Writers Workshop, Calcutta) and Courtesan of Storms (Har-Anand, Delhi). Email: [email protected].

 

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United States hi-tech sanctions against India to go​

US President Barack Obama is expected to announce the end of advanced nuclear technology sanctions against India when he arrives on his first state visit to the country in early November. The end of so-called "export controls" will fulfill one of the most important reasons why India negotiated a


civilian nuclear agreement with the US and is being seen as the biggest deliverable of the Obama visit.
Though former US President George W Bush ended India's nuclear isolation, it is Obama who will actually allow India to access US dual-use technology and equipment.

The term "dual use" refers to sensitive technology that has both nuclear and conventional uses. These technologies, that number in the thousands, are tightly controlled globally and were denied to India because of its nuclear tests and refusal to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Officials from India and the US are racing against the clock to wrap up the highly technical agreement in time for the visit, those familiar with the negotiations have told Hindustan Times.

Officials remain cautious, since a set of last minute high-profile US visits, including that of under secretary William Burns, are still taking place.

Dual-use technology sanctions have been tightened against India over the years with more and more technologies being added to the list. These technology sanctions and the number of Indian agencies on the entities list were expanded after the Pokhran II nuclear tests.

This technology straitjacket began to ease after October 2001, with Bush waiving sanctions and then changing its policy on nuclear and missile products from a "policy of denial" to a case-by-case review.

The number of banned entities also came down from 159 to the present 16 agencies. India wants to be off the entities list completely and be rid of export controls.

Winning US support for its membership of multilateral trade control regimes would be useful but would still require much diplomatic effort to persuade other member countries. The expectation is that India may get a substantial part of this package, if not all of it.

"I think we're looking to find a positive way forward here, but we're not quite there yet," US assistant secretary for South and Central Asia Robert Blake said recently, adding, "We need to continue to work on that."

There are three components to the export control negotiations.

The Entities List: Has Indian defence and Department of Atomic Energy organisations, including nuclear power plants and fuel reprocessing and enrichment facilities on it. They can't be sold any dual-use item by US firms.

Recategorisation: India is at the same level as Pakistan and North Korea as far as exports from US are concerned. India expects to be upgraded from this list.

India also wants the US to back its membership to export control regimes for manufacture of and trade in dual use items. These include the Nuclear Suppliers' Group, the Wassenar Convention and the Australia Group.

 

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Obama has economy task cut out for India​

President Barack Obama's focus during his visit to India early next month is going to be on economy - exports and job creation - said White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on Tuesday. "We understand what we have to do to create jobs, to grow our exports, to ensure that it just doesn't fall on

American consumers to drive world demand," Gibbs said to a question on the visit at a White House, briefing.
It was not a prepared statement, but it did reveal the thinking in the White House, which is under tremendous pressure domestically on the economy - unemployment continues to be high at 9.6 per cent.

And the sluggish economy is being blamed in part for the President's poor personal popularity ratings (which have been no better for any previous president at the end of their second year in office).

And it's cast a shadow on the prospects of the Democratic Party candidates running in the mid-term elections due also in early November. Poll projections for the party are quite dismal.

That's the context of Gibbs's unprepared comments.

"That's a lot of what you'll hear the President talk about on that trip, and we'll hopefully have some tangible results from it," he added.

In other words, President Obama's mission will be to persuade Indians to buy more from the US, to help create more jobs in the US and get the economy moving up again. And get India to do its bit for world economy too?

The White House has not yet announced the President's itinerary or agenda.

A few items on the trip remained to be finalised - especially the Mumbai leg. "Delhi is complete and sealed - the address to a joint sitting of Parliaments included," said a source.

The President is actively involved in planning the trip, "The President is involved in fairly regular meetings with the national security team to ensure a successful visit not long after the elections," Gibbs said.

"It's an important trip."

 

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On the table: mega deals in defence and railways​

An American company is set to bag a Rs 30,000-crore project to build locomotives for the Indian Railways, a much-delayed mega-deal that is likely to be catalysed by the visit of President Barack Obama next month. The Obama visit is also expected to see the signing of the largest ever defence agreement between India and the US.

On the basis of technical bids, two US firms, General Electric (GE) and Electro Motive Diesel (EMD), have been shortlisted to set up the Diesel Electric Locomotive Factory at Marhowra in Bihar's Saran district, one of which will bag the multi-billion dollar contract when financial bids are opened in December.

The company will build 1,000 mainline diesel electric locos — engines in which diesel is the prime mover — over 10 years, and provide maintenance support over a period of time in a public-private partnership with Indian Railways, with the latter holding 26 per cent stake.
The factory is estimated to cost around Rs 2,052 crore to build, with the cost of producing 1,000 locos and their maintenance likely to add up to another Rs 15,000 crore and Rs 10,000-odd crore respectively, said railway sources.

The Railways will provide the land, leasing it to the joint-venture company for around 50 years. The government had originally fixed November 30 as the deadline for selecting the joint-venture partner, and December 31 for signing the contract.

Diesel Locomotive Works (DLW), Varanasi, is currently the only supplier of diesel electric locos to the Railways. DLW manufactures around 150 locos annually, even as increased freight and passenger operations have been pushing up demand.

On the defence front, despite India's reluctance to sign three 'foundation agreements' being pushed by the US, decks have been cleared for the signing of a mega contract to procure 10 C17 Globemaster III heavy transport aircraft through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route.

While the value of the deal will be revealed only after the formal signing, an official notification to the US Congress has revealed its potential value to be a massive $5.8 billion — well over double the value of the $2.2 billion deal that has been signed to procure eight P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft, also under FMS, the government-to-government method for selling US defence equipment.

India is also likely to order an additional four P8I aircraft during Obama's visit, pegged at $ 1.1 billion.

Another 'feelgood' deal that will be discussed during the visit is the procurement of nearly 100 GE 414 engines built by the US giant GE Aviation, to power the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA).

Defence Ministry sources, however, said there was no change of stance on the two defence agreements the US is pushing — CISMOA (Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement) and BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation).

While Defence Minister A K Antony told his US counterpart during his recent Washington visit that the agreements are being studied by various agencies, sources said there is stiff resistance from the armed forces, who see the agreements as being restrictive.

CISMOA is being sold as an agreement that will give access to high-end communications technology to India. "But the armed forces do not see any benefit in procuring all communications equipment from a single source. They want to diversify and not be dependent on a particular source for equipment that can be easily procured from a variety of nations," said a top defence ministry source.

BECA is seen as being intrusive — signing the agreement would mean allowing US officials access to map sensitive terrain. While satellite mapping is not a concern, BECA would entitle US officials to use ground-based equipment to map out terrain.

 

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India Obama's longest trip​

Three nights and almost two-and-a-half days: India is going to be Barack Obama longest state visit after taking over as the president. He'll arrive in Mumbai in the evening of November 6, a day later than earlier reported. He will visit a couple of places where terror struck on November 26, 2008.

He will have a business meeting. Obama is scheduled to arrive in Delhi on November 7 evening.
He is to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for delegation level talks and a private lunch with him on November 8, and then address Members of Parliament.

He will not be speaking to a joint session, sources said, since Parliament convenes only the next day. He will also visit Rajghat.

And on November 9, Obama will fly out of India to Indonesia.

 

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What India must expect from Obama's visit​

We should keep in mind that a deeper and reasonably balanced relationship with the US is in India's [ Images ] interest, says former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.
United States President Barack Obama's [ Images ] forthcoming visit to India will test the vitality of the India-US strategic partnership.

In terms of rhetoric and grand gestures the US President has sought to allay misgivings in India about his commitment to the strong India relationship forged by his predecessor.


He received Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [ Images ] as his first State guest, travelled specially to the State Department for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's [ Images ] reception for External Affairs Minister S M Krishna [ Images ] on the occasion of the first ministerial level strategic dialogue between the two countries and spoke in soaring terms there about the India relationship being indispensable to the US in the 21st century, and, more significantly, unlike any of his predecessors, is journeying to India very early in his presidential tenure.

Broad diplomatic rhetoric and symbolic gestures, important though they may be, cannot substitute for progress on a range of pending concrete issues.

The success of the presidential visit will therefore be judged by the Indian public and the international community by the substantive outcomes that emerge from it.

The huge bilateral promise that the India-US relationship holds, the troubled regional situation as well as global trends of a power shift from the Euro-Atlantic area to Asia, demand a successful visit.

The Indian government has invested huge political capital in the US relationship, with the Americans now exerting considerable influence in shaping government thinking and policy with active support from business lobbies.

The Obama visit should demonstrate that the government has been wise in seeking to forge such a close partnership with the US and is getting the requisite returns.

The 'deliverables' form the visit may be less than expected, however, as many outstanding issues between India and the US will take time to settle even with goodwill.

Changes in law and policies with larger implications than for India alone would be required with Congressional approval as necessary.

On the other hand, the President has himself led the charge against US companies practising outsourcing, disregarding their compulsions to do so to retain their global competiveness and ignoring the thousands of jobs that Indian companies have created in the US.

His repeated references to the threat that 'Bangalore' poses to the US economy is hardly consonant with the consolidation of a most fecund area of future India-US economic ties centred on the role of information technology in building an advanced knowledge driven relationship between the two countries in diverse domains.

It is such presidential talk that encourages political opportunists in the US to demean Infosys [ Get Quote ] as a 'chop-shop'. The egregious step by the US Senate to increase in costs of HIB and LIA visas to finance increased surveillance of the US-Mexican border will gratuitously hit the Indian IT industry.

'Bangalore' represents the most pro-US lobby in the country and it would be a folly to alienate it.

One consequence of these thoughtless attacks on 'Bangalore' is that the city that hosts India's hi-tech industry can hardly be included in the President's itinerary.

Even if such talk is construed as playing to the domestic gallery at a time of huge unemployment within the country, projecting India as a competitor stealing US jobs not only negates reality, it also contrasts with the absence of any negative references to the US in our prime minister's discourse.

Continuing US sanctions against Indian government organisations involved in 'strategic' activity like the Indian Space Research Organisation, the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and the Defence Research and Development Organisation sit ill with claims of a 'strategic' relationship between the two countries.

The removal of these organisations from the US Entities List ought to be announced during the presidential visit. India remains under a restrictive regime under more categories than other US partners for transfers of high technology or dual use technology items.

The US appears to be disposed to ease its export control regime for commercial reasons, but whether sufficient progress can be made in time for any positive announcement during the visit remains uncertain.

In space, despite Indian capabilities, cooperation is as yet limited. On the question of supporting India's permanent membership of the Security Council, a more forward-looking US position is expected to be enunciated during the visit, but that would not be enough.

India is responding 'strategically' to the US by acquiring American equipment despite intrusive conditions and risk of embargoes should there be a regional conflict.

The US is witholding the most advanced technologies unless India signs pending security and inter-operability agreements that India finds too intrusive or are premised on operational military cooperation.

US companies have reacted to the civil nuclear liability legislation very negatively as it does not exempt them from all liability in case of an accident or precludes any recourse to US courts by the victims.

The attempt now would to frame the rules under the act in such a manner that the right to recourse to make the suppliers liable for any patent or latent defect or sub-standard services would be circumscribed.

Accomplishing sufficient progress in allaying the concerns of US companies before the presidential visit would be a tall order.

At the regional level, arming Pakistan even as the Pakistani military under General Ashfaq Kayani is determined to confront India, tolerating its duplicitous conduct on the issue of terrorism directed at India as well as Afghanistan, countenancing its ambitions in Afghanistan aimed at constraining India geo-politically and obstructing beneficial regional economic cooperation damages India's national interest.

So does seeking a modus vivendi with the unspeakable Taliban [ Images ] as an exit strategy unmindful of the fillip this will give to Islamic radicalism in the region at large with increased pressures on India's secular polity that is the best guarantee against a further lurch towards religious fundamentalism in South Asia and beyond.

US timorousness in using the enormous leverage it has in Pakistan to compel it to conduct itself as a normal, law-abiding State because of fears that this may cause a Pakistani collapse and open the doors to an Islamist finger on the country's nuclear trigger is baffling beyond a point.

More so in the context of US reluctance to take a frontal position against China's decision conveyed to the International Atomic Energy Agency to enlarge unstable, terror-infested Pakistan's nuclear capacity with supply of two additional nuclear reactors against the NSG guidelines.

With the current turmoil in Kashmir [ Images ], pressures may be building up on the President to become active on the issue. Pakistan's abrasiveness in the UN General Assembly on Kashmir and offensive posturing on the dialogue issue reflects the currents at work.

The President's visit should be used to make our bottom lines on J&K clear, especially our opposition to any third party intervention.

The traditional US posture of Pakistan-leaning 'even-handedness' on Kashmir based on equating a failing State like Pakistan riven with terrorism, religious extremism and clandestine proliferation with a democratic and responsible State like India needs to be re-defined to give meaning to its 'strategic' ties with India.

'De-hyphenating' its relations between India and Pakistan does not mean ignoring reality as well as principles.

The fiction of China's 'peaceful rise' was exposed for India by its aggressive posturing on border differences with India earlier on Arunachal Pradesh and now in J&K.

China's increased presence in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir enhances the strategic threat to India. Its expanding military infrastructure in Tibet [ Images ] signals future danger to India.

The US has largely ignored these developments until China's muscle-flexing in the South China Sea, declaring the area as its core national interest and warning against the presence of US aircraft carriers in the Yellow Sea.

Japan's [ Images ] latest humiliation at China's hands over the Senkaku Islands affair has made the US more concerned about the direction of China's future policies.

The US-China financial interdependence, the huge stakes of US companies in China, and the current over-extension of the US military makes a recession-afflicted America cautious in the face of the rising Chinese challenge.

If India has to be brought into any security framework that would hedge against the Chinese threat in the Asia-Pacific region, it is imperative that India's concerns about Chinese policies in South Asia are better understood by the US.

President Obama's visit should be an occasion for him to efface the misunderstanding created by him by his statements that the US and China should work together in promoting peace and stability in South Asia.

Ultimately, an expanded economic relationship will be needed to underpin a veritable strategic relationship.

India would have an advantage over China as its rise is not perceived as a threat by the US.

There is no other country with such a wide-ranging canvas of economic interest as India. The opportunities in the sectors already identified -- energy, IT, science and technology, health, agriculture, education etc -- are immense.

To be 'strategic' in nature, such cooperation has to transcend purely commercial considerations. Preferential transfers of hi-technology, including dual-use technologies with normal safeguards, will be required.

President Obama will be arriving in India just after the November Congressional elections in which the Democrats are expected to suffer reverses. He will therefore need a successful India visit all the more.

The onus is on the Americans to create the conditions for this.

But India's stakes in the visit's success would be high too for bilateral, regional and international reasons, and missing the opportunity provided by the visit to make its longer term intentions towards the US clearer would be costly diplomatically.

We should keep in mind that a deeper and reasonably balanced relationship with the US is in India's interest.

 

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Obama visit: India may offer deals, US strategic help​

What will India offer the Americans? What will the Americans offer India?
Nikhil Lakshman glances at the smoke signals for next month's Obama visit.

On Diwali [ Images ] night, less than three weeks from now, Barack Obama [ Images ] will arrive in Mumbai [ Images ], but Indian diplomats take the route of arcane diplomatese when asked what we can expect from the American President's passage to India.

Either the mandarins at the ministry of external affairs want to retain the surprise card. For instance, Obama telling the Indian people during his November 8 address to both Houses of Parliament that America endorses India's candidature for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council would bring the WOW! factor into play.

Or maybe both sides are wrestling over issues with such gusto that it would make Satpal Maharaj beam. In other words everything is negotiable till the very moment when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh [ Images ] and Obama walk into the conference room at New Delhi's [ Images ] Hyderabad House on November 7.

Five years ago, in a different Presidency, Indian negotiators -- including M K Narayanan, then India's National Security Adviser and now West Bengal's [ Images ] governor, and S Jaishankar, then Joint Secretary (US) at the ministry of external affairs and now our ambassador to China -- butted heads with George W Bush's [ Images ] senior aides over what would eventually become the India-US civilian nuclear agreement hours before that President greeted Dr Singh at the White House on July 18, 2005.

This time around, the deal may be more direct and less complicated.

In return for Washington removing strategic hurdles (withdrawing entities like the Defence Research and Development Organisation from the US Entities List; easing the curbs on US high-tech exports to India), India could open up some of its lucrative markets to American companies.

The big-ticket transactions are the ones involving the defence market. India is expected to sign a deal with Boeing to buy 10 C-17 transport aircraft for about $3.5 billion during the Obama visit.

The Americans are hoping that the Indian government will also opt for what The Financial Times described as the world's biggest military hardware deal and buy 100 multi-combat aircraft worth $11.8 billion from US defence manufacturers.

Agreement on the latter aircraft will be more complicated since India is also negotiating with the Russians to jointly build a Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft, which is expected to be the finest of its kind when operational. The Russians will also sell 150 Sukhoi-30 MKI fighters, the best of its kind, to the Indian Air Force.

India expects to conclude the agreement for the FGFA with the Russians when President Dmitri Medvedev visits New Delhi in December, a visit which will probably match the Obama excursion in its strategic significance, if not in its symbolism.

The biggest bone in the American throat in recent weeks has been India's Nuclear Liability Act, NLA -- which places the onus of responsibility on corporations in the event of an accident at a nuclear facility -- that US companies insist shuts them out of India's atomic commerce.

In an interview to The Wall Street Journal this week, Union Minister of State for Science and Technology Prithviraj Chavan [ Images ], who negotiated the passage of the Nuclear Liability Bill in Parliament in August, revealed that India was looking at tweaking the NLA to address the concerns of American nuclear companies.

Chavan went further to declare that 'We could announce that we are going to place 2 reactors order from Company A or Company B (during the Obama visit), then adding mysteriously, 'We may even go further than that.'

Both External Affairs Minister S M Krishna [ Images ] and Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao [ Images ] categorically ruled out the possibility that the NLA would be amended to address American commercial concerns.

"The question of amending the Act was never on the cards," Krishna declared, adding, "we will work within the parameters of the legislation."

During his discussions with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton [ Images ], Krishna revealed he had provided the Americans enough reasons to understand India's position. Both Krishna and Rao felt the NLA was a level playing field for all, including American corporations.

The timing of Obama's visit is intriguing. He will arrive in India four days after the mid-term elections in his country which is widely expected to reduce his Democratic Party to a minority in the US House of Representatives -- the lower House of the US parliament -- for the first time since November 1994.

Though the Democrats may retain their majority in the Senate, the party is tipped to lose key Senate seats races and some important governorships (in the US, governors are equivalent to India's chief ministers and much more powerful, unless they are someone like Narendra Modi [ Images ] or the late Y S Rajasekhara Reddy [ Images ]) as well.

The Democratic debacle will reduce the Obama visit to India -- he will also visit Indonesia where he lived as a child, and South Korea to attend the G-20 summit -- a quark on the American mindspace.

"We cannot quantify the outcome of President Obama's visit," Krishna said during an interaction with editors on October 13 to celebrate India's presence on the United Nations Security Council after more than 15 years, adding meaningfully, "it will depend on other developments in the neighbourhood."

Both Krishna and Rao declined to elaborate what the minister meant when Rediff.com asked the duo.

Significantly, Krishna rejected as speculative -- "there is not a grain of truth" -- reports that Obama would endorse India's candidature for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council in return for decisive Indian action on Kashmir [ Images ].

Rao revealed that the Kashmir issue has never been raised by the Americans in recent bilateral interactions.

Sources have told my senior colleague Rediff.com India Abroad Editor, News, Aziz Haniffa in Washington, DC that 'some senior Obama administration officials are pushing for the President to endorse India for a UNSC permanent seat saying there is nothing to lose and everything to gain because the UNSC expansion process could take months or years, but the announcement will have a major impact on both the Indian government and more important, its people.'

'Even if ultimately the likes of China, Pakistan and others move against India getting a permanent seat,' his sources told Aziz, 'the US could always argue that it did endorse India.'

Barack Obama will be the first American President in recent times to visit India in his first term in office -- Bill Clinton [ Images ] arrived in March 2000, the last year of his second term; George W Bush in March 2006, no longer the unquestioned leader of the free world, indeed then its most divisive and polarising figure.

Though both sides seem in stealth mode in the days running up to the Singh-Obama summit in New Delhi -- the Indian side highlighting recent history and the New Strategic Relationship, rather than identify likely landmarks -- we could be surprised yet.

 

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Don't want to bracket Pakistan with India visit: Obama

US President Barack Obama has told Islamabad he doesn't want to bracket his visit to Pakistan with India because adding it would mean spending only half a day in the country, which would be unfair, Pakistan's ambassador to the US Hussain Haqqani said. Haqqani called up Prime Minister Yousuf Raza


Gilani to brief him on the meeting which the Pakistan delegation had with Obama on Thursday, the News International reported on Friday.
Obama had earlier this week told Pakistan that he would visit the country next year and wouldn't be stopping there on a trip early next month to Asia, including a visit to India.

A White House statement said: "President (Obama) explained that he would not be stopping in Pakistan during his trip to Asia next month, and committed to visiting Pakistan in 2011, as well as welcoming (Pakistani) President (Asif Ali) Zardari to Washington."

Obama told a Pakistani delegation led by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi that he was the first US president who went to Pakistan before becoming president.

Haqqani stated that Obama while referring to his forthcoming visit said he did not want to bracket his visit to Pakistan with India.

The US president said that he would visit Pakistan next year in its own right as a strategic partner, the media report said.

"If he would add Pakistan in his forthcoming visit he would only be able to spend half a day which would not be fair to a friendly country," Haqqani was quoted as saying.

 

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Pakistan Urges US to Intervene in Kashmir Dispute​

WASHINGTON (AP) — Pakistan called Friday for President Barack Obama to intervene in its longstanding dispute with India over the Himalayan region of Kashmir, the cause of two of the three wars the nuclear-armed rivals have fought.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi made the unusually blunt appeal for Obama to seek a resolution of the dispute when he visits India next month, saying he should "redeem the pledge" he made as a candidate.

The conflict over Kashmir has been the main source of friction between India and Pakistan since they won independence from Britain in 1947. Pakistan has frequently sought outside intervention to resolve it but India vehemently opposes such involvement and the United States has traditionally stayed above the fray.

Qureshi, speaking next to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at the closing day of three days of U.S.-Pakistan talks, said Obama must get involved because a crackdown against suspected Muslim militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir threatens the entire region.

"It is in the U.S. strategic interest to work for peace, stability and resolution of the disputes in South Asia," he said. "The starting point in this quest is justice for the Kashmiri people."

"President Obama has always understood the importance of a Kashmir solution," Qureshi said. "His coming visit to the region is the time to begin to redeem the pledge that he made earlier."

As a presidential candidate in 2008, Obama suggested that the U.S. should encourage India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir dispute so Pakistan could better focus on fighting extremists on its own territory and Afghanistan. Although he did not advocate direct mediation, his comments were met with disdain in India.

Obama will not visit Pakistan on his upcoming trip but he plans to spend several days in India, which has cracked down on violent anti-Indian protests in Kashmir since June. The violence has killed at least 111 people, mostly teenage boys and young men in their 20s. Authorities have imposed off-and-on curfews in an attempt to halt the unrest.

Quershi expressed astonishment that the U.S. and other major powers had said little about India's response to the protests.

"People of conscience have protested the use of force against the defenseless people of Kashmir, in particular the targeting of the Kashmiri youth," he said. "But the Kashmiri mothers are baffled by the deafening silence of the world's leadership. History has proved that the force of arms cannot suppress the legitimate aspirations of the Kashmiri people."

India and Pakistan fought two wars for control of Muslim-majority Kashmir, where rebels have sought independence from India or incorportation with neighboring Pakistan.

More than 68,000 people, most of them civilians, have been killed in Kashmir since fighting began in earnest in 1989.

 

[ajtr]

US wants to talk business, India focus on strategy​

The agendas of India and the US will trade places when President Barack Obama meets Manmohan Singh in early November. The global financial crisis, say sources, has changed the way the two countries are dealing with each other. It is New Delhi that has a larger political and strategic agenda in mind. Washington is focused on economic and business transactions.
Because of the constraints the US is facing, sources said, Obama's journey to India will "not be a big bang visit" but will be very important. Relations have already been transformed as far as New Delhi is concerned. The two countries are more connected, politically and economically, than ever before.

New Delhi's goal in this trip and in bilateral relations in general is to get the US more directly interested in India's development in a host of areas from energy to education. "Name the subject and there's something going on," said a source. India sees Obama's trip as being about laying down blocks for the future, part of an incremental deepening of relations.

The two sides are working to complete an export control deal that will lift most of the remaining dual-use technology sanctions that still exist against India. "We want an India-specific review to reflect our relationship — and the Americans agree," a source said.

India already gets hi-tech clearances from the US faster than Israel. The US clears 98.2 per cent of all Indian technology requirements, a figure comparable to the UK and treaty allies of the US. But India and the US are in agreement that things could be better still.

New Delhi is still getting used to the idea of a Washington that is obsessed with ensuring the US domestic audience sees all presidential actions as supportive of the US economy.

"They have to look more transactional at home," said the source. But India has said it is ready to hold big-picture political and military discussions. "The agendas have flipped," said a source.

India will broadly define a successful summit as one where the two countries manage to hold "decent conversations at the highest level on big issues" fundamental to the future of the country. These would include the balance of power in Asia, economic growth and development, energy and others.

 

[ajtr]

'Dr Singh, Obama will discuss Asian balance of power'​

Sources in the Indian government have made it clear that there is not going to be any 'big bang' news to be expected from United States President Barack Obama's forthcoming visit to India in November.

As is the norm in high-level meetings, the two leaders can be expected to discuss a range of strategic issues affecting the Asian region. The 'Asian balance' will naturally figure in their talks. The content of discussions is certainly much richer than it used to be in the past, as they range from India's stance within the G20, Asia, Middle East etc.

Elaborating further on the 'Asian balance', the sources categorically said that both the US and India are engaging with China.

"There is competition with China but we are not ganging up with anyone," the sources underlined.
The Indian sources expect that the emphasis of the American side will be on economic issues.

On the other hand, the Indian side looks forward to a 'decent conversation' on regional issues as well, apart from global strategic issues.

President Obama's Mumbai visit has mainly three highlights. While staying at the Taj Hotel -- one of the sites of the 26/11 terror strike -- he would be talking about counter-terrorism related issues.

While meeting prominent Indian businessmen, he will touch upon bilateral trade related issues. In Mumbai, Obama will have a town-hall kind of a meeting to share his views with a larger audience, probably the youth, said sources.

Pak's statement 'expected'
The Indian establishment is also expecting some violent, distracting event to create an atmosphere of insecurity in the region in the immediate run-up to President Obama's arrival in India. Sources pointed out that during President George W Bush and President Bill Clinton's visits to India earlier, violent incidents had taken place.

When asked to elaborate, the sources said there is no specific information about any such likely incident. "But it fits into their [Pakistani] narrative to create a perception that the region is a nuclear hot spot," they said

About bilateral issues, sources admitted that the government is worried about the increasing protectionism in the United States and the visa restrictions. "The issue of protectionism has not reached a point to affect bilateral relations, but it has the potential to do so," sources said.

When asked about Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's statement blaming Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for lack of progress in the Indo-Pak dialogue, the source said that such statements are to be expected days before such an important visit.
'Some elements will try to rake up the Kashmir issue'
Similarly, the Indian government is aware that some elements will try to rake up the Kashmir issue to create an atmosphere of instability in the nuclear-powered region, said the source.

Quite obviously, the Indian government is playing down the US President's visit, estimating that it is prudent not to create a hype that may not be vindicated eventually.

But the source didn't completely rule out a 'big ticket event' either, by pointing out that during such summits, the discussions between the two sides invariably go on till the very last minute.

India surely expects that the US would ease technological restrictions on Indian firms to import high-tech software and hardware. The sources said that an India-specific review of the restrictions, to reflect the level of the current relationship, is already under way.

India sees the visit as an opportunity to continue what is being done in the areas of climate change, green energy and trade. US Commerce Secretary Gary Locke is accompanying Obama.

America watching Obama's visit
When asked about the seeming absence of hype about Obama's visit, the source said, "If it is so, then I am happy. Then the real politics would be taken up."

When asked about the expectations of America from the visit, sources said the American President would have to take into consideration his domestic audience. How his visit progresses and how it projects the US would be important for the American side.

India sees bipartisan support to Indo-US relations in Washington as a source of strength. India has reviewed the changes that have taken place after 2005 in the bilateral ties and within the region. The source said, "We have already transformed the relationship since then."

With regard to the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage, sources said India is ready to sign the international convention, which provides for compensation in case of trans-national implications of a nuclear accident within the framework of our legislation.

India worried about US military assistance to Pakistan
The sources expressed misgivings about the nature of US military assistance to Pakistan. The weapons that are being transferred are of a type that has little to do with counterinsurgency operations against the Al Qaeda and the Taliban.

The sources pointed out that India cannot comprehend why the US is boosting Pakistan's naval capability when the Taliban are not known to have any naval forces.

The Indian sources revealed that the government has expressed its concern to the visiting Undersecretary of State William Burns that Pakistan shouldn't use the US-supplied weapons against India.

Also, Burns has been told that the US arms supplies to Pakistan should not affect the overall military balance in the region.

Obama's Parliament address high point of visit
On the recent sensational disclosures about David Headley's role in the Mumbai attacks of 2008, the sources said the Americans gave on three occasions 'general, non-specific information'. However, the information did mention Mumbai and the Taj Hotel.

The sources observed that it is difficult to judge in such sensitive matters of intelligence as to which party knew what kind of information and to what degree.

Summing up, the sources expected that Obama's address at the joint session of the Parliament in the Central Hall late in the evening of November 8 would certainly be the high point of the entire visit.

Obama is arriving in Mumbai on November 6 and will head to Delhi the following day. Dr Singh is hosting a dinner in the evening in honour of the US President. The formal talks are expected to take place through November 8.

 

[ajtr]

Obama visit: All the president's desis
Washington, Oct 24 (IANS)

Not only does US President Barack Obama view ties with India as a ''defining partnership'' of the 21st century, but he also banks on a lot on many Indian Americans to get things done. At over two dozen, the Obama administration has more Indian-Americans in high places than ever before.

Their numbers have been rising through the Clinton and Bush presidencies in keeping with their growth (2.5 million now) and success in public life.

By far the most high ranking desi, as South Asians are called colloquially, in any presidential administration is Rajiv Shah, who as the administrator of USAID holds the purse strings of a $2.6 billion kitty to provide foreign aid to from earthquake ravaged Haiti to flood-hit Pakistan.

Before he was picked up by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the sub-cabinet level job, the whiz-kid born to immigrant parents from India, served as undersecretary for research, education and economics and chief scientist in the Agriculture Department.
Obama's two other most significant choices are Aneesh Chopra to be the first chief technology officer and Vivek Kundra as the federal chief information officer, appointments which endorsed the Indian presence in the technology sector.

Along with Chief Performance Officer Jeffrey Zients, their job is to turn Obama's vision of data-driven and digital government into reality with websites that are more like an Apple app store than well a government site.

"In our personal lives, we live in a culture where 'there's an app for that', but for whatever reason we came into Washington, and it still looks like a culture where 'there's a form for that'," says Chopra.

But the man to watch as Obama packs his bags for what promises to be a historic visit to India is Anish Goel, a senior staffer of the National Security Council and a rising star of the US foreign service.

It was Goel with a PhD in chemical engineering from MIT, who was at Obama's side at his one-on-one meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his state visit last November, the first such visit of the Obama administration.

Similarly, when the US side engaged New Delhi on Af-Pak issues, the Senior Defence Advisor to Richard Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, was another desi, Vikram Singh.

Obama turned to yet another Indian American, Neal Katyal, when he chose Solicitor General Elena Kagan to replace the retiring Associate US Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens.

Kagan's principal deputy, the former Paul and Patricia Saunders professor of national security law at Georgetown University Law Centre, now holds her job in an acting capacity.

An Indian-American Muslim, Rashad Hussain, is the US Representative to the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, an intergovernmental group with 57 member states. And another Farah Pandith serves as US special representative to Muslim communities.

Three Indian Americans Farooq Kathwari, Sunil Puri, and Amardeep Singh serve on the Presidential Advisory Commission on Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, a body to help the community get greater access to federal funding and programmes.

Other Obama choices include Preet Bharara, the US attorney for New York, a job previously held by former mayor and 2008 Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani, and Preeta Bansal, general counsel and senior policy advisor in the Office of Management and Budget.

Among science brains, IIT Madras alumnus, Subra Suresh, has just taken over as the director of the National Science Foundation, the top US science body with a $7.4 billion budget to support scientific institutions.Another Arun Majumdar is director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy in the US Department of Energy.

A number of Indian Americans have made their mark in the Obama administration.

Rajiv Shah - USAID administrator
Aneesh Chopra - first chief technology officer
Vivek Kundra - chief information officer
Anish Goel - senior staffer of the National Security Council
Vikram Singh - senior defence advisor to Richard Holbrooke, special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Neal Katyal - acting solicitor general
Rashad Husain - US representative to the Organisation of the Islamic Conference
Farah Pandith - US special representative to Muslim communities
Farooq Kathwari, Sunil Puri, Amardeep Singh - all three serve on the Presidential Advisory Commission on Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders
Preet Bharara - US attorney for New York
Preeta Bansal - senior policy advisor in the Office of Management and Budget
Subra Suresh - director of the National Science Foundation
Arun Majumdar - director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy in the US Department of Energy.


http://www.deccanherald.com/content/107128/obama-visit-all-presidents-desis.html

 

[ajtr]

Obama sends wish list to Singh ahead of visit​

New Delhi: Bringing to bear his political weight amid the not-so-successful efforts at bridging differences on a range of critical issues, US President Barack Obama has written a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh conveying US expectations from the presidential visit early next month.


According to reliable sources, the letter was carried by US under secretary of state for political affairs William Burns last week and personally handed over to the Prime Minister's Office. While details are not known, sources said the US President has expressed hope that concerns of US nuclear industry arising out of India's civil nuclear liability legislation would be addressed soon in order to commence commercial negotiations.

Obama is said to have listed out other unresolved issues too that he hoped would be addressed. These include closure on certain defence deals like the purchase of C-17 aircraft, market access to US agricultural products and problems emerging from India's fresh norms for telecom companies. However, he is believed to have made no mention of issues important to India like supporting its candidature for permanent membership of the UNSC. What is causing some concern is there is no sign of closure on any of the issues important to either side.

UNSC membership: The US has so far agreed to describe India as a "natural candidate" for permanent membership but India is keen on a clearer commitment like US "endorsing" India's candidature. So, the issue still remains open despite lengthy negotiations with Burns and Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Robert Blake last week.

US Nuclear concerns: For US, India making the move to join the Convention on Supplementary Compensation is just one pre-requisite to begin commercial negotiations. Washington has surprised New Delhi with a suggestion that if the Act cannot be amended, then the operator - in this case the NPCIL - gives an undertaking that the right to recourse to the supplier as enshrined in Article 17 (b) of the Liability Act, will not apply on US suppliers. US has been told that this kind of exception is just not possible and that US companies will have to work within Indian laws. There seems to limited convergence on this issue. The DAE has complicated matters by not assigning high-level officials to brief US nuclear suppliers in a meeting which was scheduled in Mumbai. Upset US authorities took up the matter officially and at South Block's behest, a meeting was arranged in Delhi where DAE head Srikumar Bannerjee was asked to interact with US suppliers.

Entities list: There is still no clean exemption from the US. While it is prepared to remove ISRO and DRDO entities from the list of entities requiring case-by-case clearance to trade in dual-use technology, US has still not conceded ground on removing entities belonging to the Department of Atomic Energy. Also, US has conveyed that end-use verification would still be applicable even if these entities are taken off the list. This is not acceptable to India, which wants a clean and complete deletion of all Indian entities from the list maintained by the US Bureau of Industrial standards. The issue is still open and further negotiations are needed.

Defence deals and agreements: With the US pushing for India to take a call on signing some of the pending defence agreements like the LSA, CISMOA and BECA, a proposal is under consideration to announce setting up a joint Indo-US group for discussing defence agreements. This is still to get Defence Ministry's clearance. Meanwhile, certain big ticket defence deals are expected to be announced during the visit.

NSG membership: Here, there is a greater convergence with US agreeing to language that it would seek to "evolve criteria" within the NSG that would make it possible for India to be considered for membership of this elite group.

Market access to US dairy and meat products: US wants prohibition on its dairy and meat products to go. Indian authorities say calf rennet is used in many US dairy products and the ban cannot be lifted until suitable measures are taken to satisfy India that this is not used in products sent to India. US is very keen to have this prohibition lifted while India is worried about religious sensitivities connected with this. A US delegation expected next week to specially discuss this issue.

 

[ajtr]

Defence deals during Obama's visit unlikely: Antony​

India [ Images ] and the United States are unlikely to wrap up any defence deals during the high-profile visit of President Barack Obama [ Images ] early next month, Defence Minister A K Antony indicated on Monday.
"I don't think so," he told reporters on being asked if the defence ministry was expecting any deals to be signed during Obama's visit commencing from November 6.


India and the US are in talks to finalise a deal for 10 C-17 transport aircraft for the Indian Air Force, estimated to be worth USD 5.8 billion.

"The talks are in its final stages," Antony said in response to a query on the C-17 deal.

India is also interested in buying 24 Harpoon missiles for its Air Force at an estimated cost of USD 700 million. Apart from these purchases, the two sides are also holding discussions for foundational agreements in areas such as communication interoperability, logistics support and geo-spatial fields.

He said the whole government was coordinating the US president's visit in which the defence ministry was playing a part.

Asked about fidayeen threats during Obama's visit, Antony said though there were possible threat perceptions during high level visits, the government took all measures to counter them.

"Whenever high level visits take place, there is always the possibility of threats. We are putting all measures in place to meet all problems. We are capable of handling it, as we have proved during the Commonwealth Games [ Images ] by conducting it successfully," he said.

To a question, the minister said there were 42 terror training camps which were active in Pakistan and a new element was that women were also being trained as terrorists.

"Some elements are training terrorists against India. Even now, 42 terror camps exist across the border. They are training even ladies," he said.

But, he said, the Indian armed forces were vigilant 24x7 in order to defeat the terrorists.

"They (the armed forces) are ready always. The country is safe in the hands of our armed forces," he said.

Calling the Mumbai terror attacks [ Images ] two years ago as "an eye-opener" for the Indian security establishment, he said the importance of coastal security had dawned on the government only after 26/11.

"For us, the 26/11 incident in Mumbai was an eye-opener. It is now all the more important due to the security situation around India. We have to take more care in strengthening coastal security," he said.

"All the while, we thought the land border is only the real border. Strengthening security along the land borders was our only concern. We thought coastal areas have their own protection, the seas. Gone are those days. We have to be more careful," he added.

That was why the government was giving more attention to coastal security now by strengthening the Coast Guard and the coastal police, he added.

On concerns over growing piracy and terrorism on the high seas, Antony said the defence ministry intended to acquire more aircraft, vessels and manpower to strengthen the Coast Guard.

"We intend to acquire more air assets, vessels and also manpower. We are going to continue this pace. The Coast Guard is now ready to meet any challenge to coastal security," he said.

To a question on Google displaying a map showing Arunachal Pradesh as a part of China, Antony asserted that the state was "very much an integral part" of India.

"As far as Arunachal Pradesh is concerned, our government is very clear about that. Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India," he said.

 

[ajtr]

What to expect from Obama's visit​

The success of Barack Obama's visit should be judged not so much by whether the U.S. lifts the sanctions on 'the entities' or he softens his rhetoric on outsourcing. There are far more serious subjects.

The visit of the head of state of the sole, though somewhat depleted, superpower provides us a timely opportunity to apprise our guest of our assessment of the strategic environment surrounding us and to engage him in an in-depth discussion on how to deal with the common threat to our countries and peoples, nearly all of which emanates from the Af-Pak region. The success of Barack Obama's visit should be judged, not so much by whether the U.S. lifts the sanctions on 'the entities' or whether or not he softens his rhetoric on outsourcing, important as these issues are. There are far more serious subjects which should occupy the limited time the leaders spare for a tête-à-tête or talks at the delegation level. A candid discussion of the strategic implications of the crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan must be carried out.

The war in Afghanistan, it seems, is not a major issue in the forthcoming mid-term congressional and gubernatorial elections in America. Mr. Obama would no doubt wish to make it an equally not-a-critical issue when it is time for him to start campaigning for a second term. Indeed, it is this factor which has dominated his approach to the Afghan war, as Bob Woodward has brought out so conclusively in Obama's Wars. Henry Kissinger could not resist the temptation of being clever when he said the 'exit strategy' was all about exit and not about strategy; in fact, however, Mr. Obama has been discussing strategy almost since his first week in office.

Obama's Wars also brings out the President's preoccupation with Pakistan, persuading its leaders to cooperate with America in degrading and defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan. As one of Mr. Obama's advisors said during the endless hours spent on discussing the 'options' the President could consider, all the persuasion took the form of carrot and no stick. Nearly $20 billion has been sunk into Pakistan since 2001 and more is being pledged almost every week. It must be the highest investment, with very little to show for it, per sq km in the world. The Americans have also felt obliged to assure Pakistan that their President will visit Islamabad next year, as well as not to make too much of a fuss over the Sino-Pak civil nuclear deal. It is not only India that has to be pragmatic in its foreign policy.

One reads in the Woodward book that the Americans have identified 150 targets which they would bomb in case of another 9/11-type attack on the American homeland that was traced to Pakistan's badlands. Perhaps the Pakistan military takes the American threat more seriously than India's when it says another 'Mumbai' would engender a robust response from us. Happily for India-U.S. relations, Mr. Obama's initial inclination to include India, or more specifically Kashmir, in Richard Holbrooke's mandate was quickly discarded, thanks to New Delhi's timely and effective intervention. Nonetheless, the President, and more so his advisors, have convinced themselves that the key to obtaining Pakistan's full cooperation lies in prevailing upon New Delhi to 'cooperate' with Islamabad in tackling the root causes of the crisis between 'the two nuclear-armed arch enemies', as India and Pakistan are invariably described in the American media.

The extent to which the Americans and others in the western world have bought the Pakistani line should be a matter of concern to us. It also shows that Pakistan's propaganda machine is working ceaselessly in all those capitals. One explanation for this bias is that Pakistan is considered an underdog and the world always has sympathy for underdogs. Pakistan's very weakness is its strength. But there is no getting away from the fact that we have to intensify our PR efforts; the lobbying firms we have hired in Washington should be made to produce better results. It is here that Mr. Obama's visit provides us with an excellent opportunity to disabuse him of the falsehoods Pakistan has been spreading about us.

For example, many in the West, and perhaps elsewhere as well, believe that India does present a threat to Pakistan and that the threat would become the most acute if there was a pro-India government in Kabul. The concept of 'strategic depth' is not dismissed summarily by others, least of all by the Pentagon. Pakistan's argument that India and an India-friendly Afghanistan could join forces and attack it, however laughable, is not scoffed at by all think tanks abroad. In this writer's interaction with several think tanks recently in America, he was told that India must not take advantage of Pakistan's precarious position at this stage, that India must "give comfort" to Pakistan, that India must engage Pakistan in a composite dialogue, including specifically on the question of Kashmir, etc. One influential think tank even suggested that in order to bring Pakistan fully on board in the war against the al-Qaeda and the Taliban, it must be offered a 'quid' in the shape of a sphere of influence in the Afghan provinces adjoining Pakistan.

When pointed out that this would in effect mean conceding a sphere of influence to China, they were least concerned. All this, despite the Indian government's persistence with dialogue notwithstanding Pakistan's stalling of proceedings against the perpetrators of 26/11 and the undisputable links between the Inter-Services Intelligence and the Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The pressure on us would have been severer had we refused all contact with Pakistan after 26/11. However, the government's knee-jerk reaction every time Pakistan utters the 'K' word is un-understandable. We have a perfectly good case on Kashmir and in fact we should be the ones to want to discuss Kashmir, since it is Pakistan which aggressed against us and is still occupying our territory. We should not be afraid of the 'K' word. We should ask those who want us to discuss Kashmir with Pakistan: "What is it that you want us to discuss regarding the Kashmir issue? Are you even sure that Pakistan wants to 'solve' the issue, except by the only way that we will never agree to, namely to hand over the whole of Kashmir, or at least the entire Valley to them?" Manmohan Singh and Pervez Musharraf came close to concluding an agreement on Kashmir, but that has been disowned by Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.

President Obama might not necessarily 'buy' these arguments from the think-tankwallahs, although the think tanks in America are as aggressive in pushing their ideas on decision-makers as their businesses are in pushing their products in overseas markets. But he is looking for a way out of the Afghan quagmire and is most anxious that the process of 'reconciliation' with the Taliban should succeed. He does seem to be persuaded that Pakistan's help in this process is indispensable, even though President Hamid Karzai may have his doubts about conceding anything more than a consultative role to Pakistan. Reports that Pakistan arrests any Taliban commander believed to be talking to the representatives of the Kabul government indicate Gen. Kayani's determination to keep the process firmly in Pakistan's control. The U.S. is anxious not to risk alienating the General described by Mr. Holbrooke as the most important political factor in Pakistan. (Woodward's book has the following gem. Secretary Hillary Clinton asked Mr. Karzai during his visit to Washington in May 2010: "Do you really think the ISI could pick up Mullah Omar if they wanted?" Karzai reached over and plucked a chocolate chip cookie from his plate. "They could deliver Mullah Omar like I can pick up this cookie," he said.)

Every such visit does not have to be "highly successful" or "historic." The success or otherwise of the visit must not be judged by our getting concessions on some bilateral issues. Nor should Mr. Obama expect to clinch the deal for sale of 126 American fighter aircraft at this juncture. The President might say something about India's ambition for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. His advisors presumably have explained to him that the Indian public opinion will not be satisfied with some vague formula of the U.S. being sympathetic to India wanting to play a bigger role on international forums including the U.N., etc. If he does not bring himself to expressing unambiguous support, he would be well advised not to say anything on the subject.

The real criterion for measuring success would lie in assessing whether or not the two leaders have reached consensus on defining the dangers that their, and other, countries face from the Af-Pak area and how they intend to tackle it. They must agree on a mechanism for arriving at such assessment and there is only one way of doing it. What is needed is a trilateral forum of consultations consisting of the U.S., India and Afghanistan.

 

[Patriot]

India, USA to sign key pacts
Ashok Tuteja

India and the USA are expected to ink at least seven agreements in defence, trade, climate change, education, clean energy, market access and hi-tech exports during President Barack Obama's visit to India early next month.

Highly placed sources said the two sides were in constant touch finalising the pacts to be signed after talks between President Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on November 8.

It is learnt that trade-related issues and defence cooperation would top the agenda of the two countries during bilateral talks. Some of the key US officials are expected to remain in Delhi for a few more days after Obama leaves India to carry forward negotiations on the understandings reached between the American leader and the Indian Prime Minister.

Indications are that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would not be coming to India along with the President since she will be in Australia for the annual Australia-US ministerial consultations.

Meanwhile, ahead of the President's visit, the Obama administration is nudging India to assume the leadership role in Asia as a major economy and the world's largest democracy, in an apparent attempt to counter China.

According to senior US government officials, Washington desired India to take a more active role outside its immediate South Asian region in trade, political and security fields.

"We view India as an East Asian power"¦India is not confined to the context of its immediate neighbourhood,'' the officials, who preferred to remain anonymous, told reporters at a select briefing.

Worried over the growing influence of China and its increasing economic muscle-power, the US has made no secret of its desire to project India as a power which could act as a balancing factor in Asia. The US officials indicated that the growing Chinese assertiveness would be one of the key issues that would figure during Singh-Obama talks.

New Delhi, too, has been sensitive about China's ambitions in the continent. Beijing's recent moves like questioning the status of Jammu and Kashmir have caused a lot of anxiety in the South Block. New Delhi looks with suspicion at the increasing Chinese investments in countries adjacent to India like Pakistan, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

The American side believes that boosting economic and trade ties with India would not only be mutually beneficial but also enhance India's role globally.

The US has projected the bilateral trade with India to touch $ 50 billion this year. The two-way trade doubled to $ 43 billion dollar between 2004 and 2008. The growing significance of trade between the two countries could be gauged from the fact that a delegation of more than 100 corporate honchos would accompany President Obama on his India visit.

Outsourcing and H1B visa issue are, however, likely to remain a bone of contention between the two countries. The US officials admitted that these were difficult issues but hoped the two sides would be able to deal with them satisfactorily.





http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20101027/nation.htm#1

 

[ajtr]

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/article852405.ece

It has said that from 2009 to 2010, various bills and clauses have been passed by the U.S. Administration, which have irked global industry members and posed a threat of retaliatory trade wars.

Topping the list is the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of February 2009, which requires that all the iron and steel for infrastructure projects be produced in U.S..

Since Iron & Steel rank among India's top exports to U.S.A, CII has said that the country will be adversely affected as a result of this protectionist provision.

Besides, the Act also requires that the uniforms, used by employees managing security at all American airports, be made in America.

In Indian exports to the U.S., textiles rank second and account for over 21 per cent of all export commodities

CII has also said that India has attracted the second highest number of anti-dumping cases from the U.S. after China and U.S. has levied 20 anti-dumping cases on Indian goods during 2000-2009.

 

[SHASH2K2]

Obama should support India for UNSC seat: think tank

During his trip to India early next month, United States President Barack Obama should endorse India's candidacy for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council, an influential Washington think-tank has argued in a report to be released later this week.

Outlining some of the most pressing reasons why the U.S. ought to extend such support the report said that should the UNSC reform occur, it would be inconceivable that India would not be included in the reconfigured body given India was "on track to become the world's third- or fourth-largest economy, possesses major military capabilities, remains a pluralist liberal democracy, and is a nuclear weapons state".

Further, three of the five permanent members of the UNSC — Russia, the United Kingdom, and France — had already endorsed India's candidacy, leaving only the U.S. and China "as strange bedfellows that have resisted the inclination to support New Delhi's claims", the report said.

The Obama in India report, authored by Ashley Tellis, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued that the U.S. President should also accelerate India's assimilation into global non-proliferation bodies such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Missile Technology Control Regime, the Australia Group and the Wassenaar Arrangement.

With regard to the civil nuclear agreement, progress on which has slowed since the passage of the nuclear liability bill by the Indian Parliament, the report by Mr. Tellis argued, "Exhorting India to begin serious commercial negotiations with American nuclear suppliers and to sign and ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation"¦ ought to be a priority."

Common national interests

Speaking to The Hindu from Washington, Mr. Tellis said, about the overall agenda during Mr. Obama's time in India, "The fundamental thing Obama should remember is that the U.S. partnership with India is intended to support common national interests over the long haul."

He further said that there was no reason to be discouraged by the challenges that beset both sides today, adding, "There is plenty the United States and India can do together — not all of it will make the headlines but all of it will deepen the partnership."

Issuing a note of caution to the U.S. on the Pakistan issue, the CEIP report said that Mr. Obama "ought to refrain from asking India"¦ how it can placate Rawalpindi in order to evoke better counterterrorism cooperation from the Pakistan Army".

In this regard, the report argued that the Obama administration knew well that there was "nothing that India can meaningfully do to assuage Pakistani paranoia beyond what it has done already, namely offer to sustain the peace process and maintain its restraint in the use of force despite the continuing terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan".

Released less than two weeks before Mr. Obama's much-anticipated visit to India, the CEIP report further touched upon some of the geo-political imperatives for a deeper India-U.S. relationship.

Remarking upon the role of China in particular, the report said that the U.S. had a "vital stake in maintaining an Asian 'balance of power that favours freedom' at a time when managing China's rise is certain to be the most important strategic challenge facing Washington".

 

[SHASH2K2]

Obama in India No big deal

India is going to be disappointed with President Barack Obama's visit beginning Saturday after next. The upside of this is that the Indo-US relationship has come a long way in so short a time as to engender expectations that could induce performance anxiety.

This sense of anticlimax comes after the much tom-tommed civilian nuclear commerce double play by the two countries, which continue to relay over multiple hurdles. US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns said at a White House press briefing on the visit on Wednesday, "We’ve worked hard in this administration to follow through, completing, for example, a reprocessing agreement between the US and India six months ahead of schedule." He also marked the Indian accession to the Convention on Supplementary Compensation on Wednesday, important especially after the Nuclear Liability Bill passed in India, imposing liabilities on nuclear suppliers as well. "We look forward to US companies contributing to Indian civil nuclear development.
And the signing today by the Indian government in Vienna of the Convention on Supplemental Compensation (CSC) is a very positive step toward ensuring that international standards apply and that US companies are going to have a level playing field on which to compete."

But evidently, the accession to the CSC has not solved the problem. When asked if Obama would ask for changes in the recently passed nuclear power law, Burns said, "What we seek is a level playing field for our companies. India’s leadership has said that’s what it wants to ensure, too, and so I think we’re making progress."

When asked specifically if India had addressed all US concerns in this regard by signing the CSC, he repeated, "Our companies are engaged in discussions right now. We’re engaged in discussions," adding, "What we’re interested in is simply to ensure that there’s a level playing field for our companies." So no, then.

But India thinks these are issues that will, eventually, be sorted out. "So what's next?" is what it's asking now.

New Delhi has been hoping for tangible movement towards it being able to register a permanent presence on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), for which support has been forthcoming from various countries. But it is US intent and initiative which will drive the Indian quest to fruition. Indeed, if the agreement to facilitate civilian nuclear commerce between India and the rest of the world was the high point of Indo-US relations under the previous US dispensation, India hoped a permanent Indian seat on the UNSC would mark the growth of this relationship under President Obama.

The first indications of a letdown in this regard came from US officials in New Delhi, who expressed ignorance of the agenda earlier this week, when asked if President Obama would be addressing this issue. At the White House press briefing on the visit, US Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communication, Ben Rhodes obfuscated, "The first thing I’d say is simply that — first of all, we’ve, through the G20, through our focus on the G20 and some other bodies, already sought to give India a greater voice in global architecture — for instance, saying that the G8 can’t deal with global economic issues as effectively as the G20. The reasoning behind that was because you need India at the table on those discussions, just as you need China and other emerging economies.

Referring to India's recent election as non-permanent member to the UNSC, he added superficially, "On the Security Council, they are going to be a member, first of all, in terms of the next cycle, so we’ll have an immediate opportunity to cooperate with them on the Security Council." And so India feels shortchanged. US Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economic Affairs, Mike Froman said, “India is today one of the biggest contributors to UN peacekeeping forces.”

Under Secretary Burns weighed in too, saying, "Given India’s rise and its significance, we believe that India will be a central part of any consideration of a reformed Security Council."

Asked, "Can you just maybe explain a little more about why not just do it? What is the thinking behind not moving ahead quickly with this?" he said, "That's about as far as I’m going today."

When pressed further with a question from a reporter, who asked, "There is a downside, though, in your view? You just don't want to articulate what it is?” the most he said was, "It’s a very complicated issue that involves international architecture in many countries. But we’ll continue to work — to talk this through as we move forward on the trip."

After talking to US government officials at their embassy in New Delhi and having a look at the transcript of the White House press briefing on the visit, what seems apparent is that the only area that's swimming along fine between the two countries is defense cooperation, even in spite of the once-explosive end use monitoring issue, now, apparently, a mere blip in the relationship.

Froman underlined this at the press gaggle, saying, "India now holds more defense exercises every year with the United States than it does with any other country. Some USD 4 billion in defense sales have been made by the US to India over the last couple of years alone, with more possibilities ahead. "

More possibilities indeed. India has already ordered 24 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, eight P-8I maritime aircraft, six C-130J Super Hercules aircraft. Four additional P-8I aircraft will be ordered. The Javelin anti-tank missile also seems to be a likely purchase, besides 10 C-17 Globemaster III aircraft and, possibly, an additional six C-130J aircraft.

The Indian Army is currently test-firing the M777 Ultra Light Howitzer for the planned Indian acquisition of 145 light howitzers. And of course, two US fighter aircraft, the F-16 and F/A-18 are in the race to win the Indian Air Force (IAF) order for 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA).

The AH-64D Apache attack helicopter and the Chinook heavy lift helicopter are also on offer to the IAF, having already undergone trials, besides two versions of the Seahawk helicopter to the Indian Navy.

The transcript of the press briefing has this question addressed to Froman. “There are reports that there are USD 12 billion worth of orders are being (inaudible) for the US This includes USD 5 billion for the defense and another USD 7 billion of commercial deals like the Boeing aircraft, which will create 50,000 to 60,000 jobs in the U.S. alone. How do you think it is justified to level allegations like jobs are being outsourced to India?”

“I think the important thing is that there’s a large potential market there; that the President and the administration are active in promoting exports to ensure that there’s a level playing field there, there’s open markets there, and that our exports have an opportunity to penetrate that market and support jobs back here,” he replied.

But he did point out separately, "Indian companies are the second-fastest-growing investors in the United States. And they are creating — they now support about 57,000 jobs here in the US." The balance of trade between the two countries is fairly even and touching around USD 50 billion, according to a US embassy official. And interestingly enough, the fastest growing investors into the US don't come from China, the European Union or Japan. "I believe it’s UAE — in terms of fastest-growing in the United States, I believe it’s UAE," said Froman.

 

[ajtr]

India and America
A damp squib
Little is expected of Barack Obama's visit to India​

Oct 28th 2010 | DELHI

BARACK OBAMA is expected to arrive in India next week in time for Diwali, the subcontinent's festival of light. In Delhi and Mumbai a machinegun racket of firecrackers and joyful whooping will enliven the night, and Mr Obama should make the most of it. Nothing in his official business looks likely to set the sky alight.

Under his predecessor, relations between India and America improved hugely. George Bush saw democratic India as a counterweight to China; India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, also wanted closer ties. The result was a 2005 civil nuclear co-operation agreement, which conferred longed-for respectability on India's hitherto pariah nuclear programme. That is a lot for Mr Obama to live up to.

To the disappointment of many in both countries, moreover, this budding friendship has failed to kick on. The 250 investors travelling with Mr Obama will make much, in public, of flourishing commercial ties. Bilateral trade is expected to be worth more than $50 billion this year and is just about in balance—despite American fears over the outsourcing of low-skilled jobs to India. But barriers on both sides ensure that big opportunities are being missed.

Indian businessmen grouch about difficulties in getting American visas and the protectionist urges of Mr Obama's Democratic allies. Americans lament India's slow pace in opening its retail, insurance and banking markets. On a recent trip to India, Mike Duke, Wal-Mart's boss, said that if India scrapped its restrictions on foreign retailers it could create 3m new jobs, cut food inflation and boost productivity. Nothing suggests that will happen soon.

India's government also looks askance on Mr Obama's wider Asian strategy. It fears the superpower relies too much on Pakistan for its operations in Afghanistan; pundits in Delhi point to a $2-billion package of American military aid to Pakistan announced on October 22nd. Above all, India fears a withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan—promised by Mr Obama to begin in July 2011—would free the way for the Taliban, Pakistan's sometime proxies, to return to power.

It also frowns on Mr Obama's efforts to improve ties with another Indian neighbour and erstwhile enemy, China. On a visit to Beijing last year America's president urged it to play a greater role in South Asia. That appalled many Indians, who are already concerned by China's close alliance with Pakistan and perceived meddling in Nepal, Sri Lanka and other areas of traditional Indian sway.

America has toughened its approach to China recently. To placate agitated Indians, American officials also insist they want India to take a bigger role in East Asia. Indeed that is slowly happening. Under Mr Singh, India has forged several trade and other agreements with countries there—especially Japan, which also sees India as an important potential ally against China. India's prime minister was in Tokyo this week to sign an agreement to boost (currently puny) bilateral trade. Yet India devotes most of its limited diplomatic means to its messy region.

For a Diwali gift, Mr Obama will be hoping to conclude a mooted defence deal, under which American firms would supply India with 126 fighter planes. That would be only a taster of India's rich defence pickings. Ron Somers, president of the US-India Business Council, says he expects India to spend $45 billion on military goods and American defence firms are hungry for a slice of that. Yet they are currently stymied by their own country's restrictions on high-tech exports to India. And despite Mr Bush's munificent gesture, American firms may also miss out on the coming boom in India's civil-nuclear industry. It requires imports of nuclear fuel and technology worth billions of dollars. But a recent law lumbers firms supplying them with stiff liabilities, and America's private nuclear firms say this hands a big advantage to their state-backed French and Russian rivals. Tough, say India's rulers, the law can't be changed.