from 1974 to the 1998 (20+ years) india has done total of 3 tests with 6 devices. in 1974 the reasons were different from 1998 likewise if India tests now the reasons will be different. after 1998 i am sure there was NOT a understanding that if a country like North Korea (be it any) did
4 tests over 10 years that India would not test again since the P5 has tested many more times. it would be a naivety to assume that north korea test is simple. also it would be wrong to assume that India is not impacted. now there is reports north korea will do another test.
the understanding from 1998 was that there would be NO other country to test after 1998 hence the reason of a voluntary moratorium. A moratorium of such nature that is temporary in nature until a crystallization of the nuclear weapon status of india on actual NPT (not grey area). the grey area of india was with no other nation testing after 1998. such resulted in detailed discussions with many countries but why go along such a path if the nuclear status can be opened up by others and over many years without inhibition. this was with a pakistan nuclear weapon area test since they have a history of proliferation and unable to get the same status of india. you see the P5 was allowed many years of repeated testing and the least number of tests by P5 is 45. India was done 3. North Korea has done 4.
Do we need to discuss why India did not test after 1998. It was clear that it would be moratorium if no one else tested because a P5 with 45 minimum tests and a North Korea with 4 tests is bit outrageous invalid customization and tradition to uphold. India also able to contend the status of pakistan is not like india and the status achieved of nuclear weapon state outside NPT.
I have already given the reasons earlier why India ought to test and the primary one is that North Korea is a proxy of PRC and it would not be able to do any test and movement and behavior without acquiesce from its main bread supplier. Next the global world does not know what to do after north korea test and a test by India would allow for a constructive and supportive takeaways for many of the stakeholders and in fact provide a safe and secure approach out of the situation. You see how Pakistan was able to be sanctioned and raped (PRC had approved with a VETO) since the big mighty India was along for the ride.
finally testing by india will and has to make this more serious because the behavior of North Korea and the region there is playing like children. south korea, japan and taiwan and also others would sure love to have that white horse being riden by India come and give them a boost.
India nuclear environment is PRC concentric and India is part of Asia that requires good leadership that one can read is not being shown by PRC at the moment. A test by North Korea can be seen by the response that is being displayed by PRC that was not even provided to Pakistan!! Pakistan must be licking its raped wounds from 1998 that it is still suffering till date where PRC has a VETO wielding power openly being shown to the world for North Korea. Dialogue and crazy and berserk behavior of North Korea makes the VETO of PRC come out. This is not to say what PRC is doing is wrong since they have to look after themselves and if i was a PRC interlocutor i would not be moving away from my position and it is being played in a grey area that PRC likes to do. North Korea is also a useful tool for PRC to take away attention and focus from its problems. Like Pakistan is used by others to prick India. One will realize that PRC is using the India tests of 1998 and US-India civil nuclear agreement to justify North Korea testing. I would like India to think about it self and be selfish since how else it would allow it to take care of others (first take care yourself). There will be some softness and faintness but the same reasons were there in 1974 and 1998. We will have short term pain but the long term gain is obvious. We have to see who has their pants down when the wave goes away.
India must do a test(s) and the rational and observerence of why and how can be determined later because obviously we would not justify to the world before we test but after. Because if the PRC wants to say that it has no role in North Korea it is making the nuclear regime weak and also showing its incompetence more reason for India to test and make the world sit up and make it nuclear security strong. The North Korea pressure would be released by India testing. North Korea has the history of AQ Khan and even more people will say. Some will say that this is a Pakistan-PRC-North Korea axis and again more reason for India to test. But I doubt Pakistan would have allowed PRC and North Korea to do such a item because it would make them look stupid (already much from 1998). If PRC wants to say it has a role in North Korea and no one do anything to it that is more reasons for India to test and make world sit up and make it nuclear security strong.
a India nuclear weapon test will tell the world that there will be two status one that is nuclear weapon status in NPT and one that is outisde NPT. A country will simple get out of NPT and become a nuclear weapon state that is what North Korea is saying. India NEVER joined the NPT.
The world needs to have a new world discussion on Nuclear Security and Proliferation and a treaty to supersede the NPT.
India testing now would allow such a movement and rightly. Nuclear Weapon status defined and made clear that a state like North Korea later cannot be declared one and make India to be one declared.
Such a new treaty would allow for many important takeaways and make regions non-nuclear (middle east) and better observance. .
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/saud...ions-on-acquiring-nukes-from-pakistan-1268358
"Saudi Arabia Minister Avoids Questions On Acquiring Nukes From Pakistan"
It is not 100% that a country would always have a leader that is alienable to the supporter.
