LETHALFORCE
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you are right monk, that is why many diseases that plague mankind have also not yet been conquered.
North Korea Launches Rocket
- Thread starter Singh
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It does, but now that country is nothing short of a headache to be defended every time Mr. Kim tries a new antic.
LETHALFORCE
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it is also a strategic asset for China to utilize to knock Japan out of the top spot in trade and also a strategic asset to keep USA out of the Sea of Japan/South China seas and also a strategic asset to keep US troops in south korea in check, no matter how you look at it, it is a strategic asset for China one which they probably have absolutely no intentions of giving up no matter how they portray their position.
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How would North Korea stop USN presence in the Sea of Japan ?
LETHALFORCE
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Give what ???
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Maneuverable at Mach 10 ? You got to be kidding me..
The claims of this deterrent is pure disinformation and a scientific impossibility(Atleast right now)...
Secondly,
Even after the thermal cooling systems get to work, its thermal signature would be enough to direct it to heaven.
LETHALFORCE
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Tense minutes as NKorea rocket flew over Japan
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Tense_minutes_as_NKorea_rocket_flew_over_Japan_999.html
Tense minutes as NKorea rocket flew over Japan
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) April 5, 2009
For several tense minutes North Korea's rocket sped through the skies over Japan, but the Japanese did not try to shoot it down -- a move Pyongyang had warned would amount to an act of war.
Japan had taken the unusual step of authorising its military in advance to intercept any bit of the rocket that threatened to hit its territory, but those few moments of drama came and went with no confrontation.
The government said the boosters of the North Korean rocket plopped harmlessly into the waters off Japan's coasts just as Pyongyang had said they would -- letting many here breathe a sigh of relief.
"I really feel relieved after several restless days," said Yuri Saito, the 24-year-old daughter of a fisherman. "My father went out to sea even today, and I was glad to receive a radio call from him just now to confirm he's safe."
Japan had deployed destroyers equipped with anti-missile Aegis systems, awaiting the launch of what Tokyo, Seoul and Washington had said would really be an illegal test of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The rocket blasted off from the North around 0230 GMT. Seven minutes later, the first booster stage was believed to have dropped into the waters of the Sea of Japan (East Sea) off the country's northwest coast.
After flying over Japan, the rocket then dropped its second booster stage into the Pacific Ocean about 1,270 kilometres (800 miles) from Japanese land at about 0243 GMT, the country's Crisis Management Centre said.
All in all, the rocket was over Japanese land for less than six minutes.
Pyongyang later claimed the rocket's satellite payload had successfully entered orbit, where it was broadcasting songs in praise of the nation's past and present leaders.
Japan held its fire when the rocket passed -- but its leaders later launched angry salvos over the launch, carried out despite repeated pleas from the United States, South Korea and Japan to call it off.
Prime Minister Taro Aso was scathing about the launch, speaking to reporters after a government security council meeting.
"Despite repeated warnings from all over the world -- especially from the United States and South Korea, not to mention Japan -- North Korea has carried out a launch," he told reporters.
"It is an extremely provocative action. Japan can never overlook it."
The UN Security Council was to meet later on Sunday on Tokyo's and Washington's request, while Japan's diplomats sprang into action.
Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone also spoke with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and their South Korean and Chinese counterparts.
Japan's chief government spokesman said Tokyo was set to extend its sanctions against the regime by a year later this month -- including bans on North Korean imports, citizens' visits and port calls by its ships.
Ruling party lawmakers have also proposed in recent days toughening the sanctions in case of a launch, possibly by banning all Japanese exports and further restricting financial transactions to the communist state.
The North fired a shorter-range Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998 as part of a failed satellite launch. It also fired a longer-range Taepodong-2 in 2006 but that test failed, and the missile exploded after 40 seconds.
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Tense_minutes_as_NKorea_rocket_flew_over_Japan_999.html
Tense minutes as NKorea rocket flew over Japan
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) April 5, 2009
For several tense minutes North Korea's rocket sped through the skies over Japan, but the Japanese did not try to shoot it down -- a move Pyongyang had warned would amount to an act of war.
Japan had taken the unusual step of authorising its military in advance to intercept any bit of the rocket that threatened to hit its territory, but those few moments of drama came and went with no confrontation.
The government said the boosters of the North Korean rocket plopped harmlessly into the waters off Japan's coasts just as Pyongyang had said they would -- letting many here breathe a sigh of relief.
"I really feel relieved after several restless days," said Yuri Saito, the 24-year-old daughter of a fisherman. "My father went out to sea even today, and I was glad to receive a radio call from him just now to confirm he's safe."
Japan had deployed destroyers equipped with anti-missile Aegis systems, awaiting the launch of what Tokyo, Seoul and Washington had said would really be an illegal test of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The rocket blasted off from the North around 0230 GMT. Seven minutes later, the first booster stage was believed to have dropped into the waters of the Sea of Japan (East Sea) off the country's northwest coast.
After flying over Japan, the rocket then dropped its second booster stage into the Pacific Ocean about 1,270 kilometres (800 miles) from Japanese land at about 0243 GMT, the country's Crisis Management Centre said.
All in all, the rocket was over Japanese land for less than six minutes.
Pyongyang later claimed the rocket's satellite payload had successfully entered orbit, where it was broadcasting songs in praise of the nation's past and present leaders.
Japan held its fire when the rocket passed -- but its leaders later launched angry salvos over the launch, carried out despite repeated pleas from the United States, South Korea and Japan to call it off.
Prime Minister Taro Aso was scathing about the launch, speaking to reporters after a government security council meeting.
"Despite repeated warnings from all over the world -- especially from the United States and South Korea, not to mention Japan -- North Korea has carried out a launch," he told reporters.
"It is an extremely provocative action. Japan can never overlook it."
The UN Security Council was to meet later on Sunday on Tokyo's and Washington's request, while Japan's diplomats sprang into action.
Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone also spoke with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and their South Korean and Chinese counterparts.
Japan's chief government spokesman said Tokyo was set to extend its sanctions against the regime by a year later this month -- including bans on North Korean imports, citizens' visits and port calls by its ships.
Ruling party lawmakers have also proposed in recent days toughening the sanctions in case of a launch, possibly by banning all Japanese exports and further restricting financial transactions to the communist state.
The North fired a shorter-range Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998 as part of a failed satellite launch. It also fired a longer-range Taepodong-2 in 2006 but that test failed, and the missile exploded after 40 seconds.
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Its true, it is quite the hottest topic on the forum... I personally also doubt its maneuverability...
LETHALFORCE
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Sohamsri I agree it would be difficult, but the US think tanks are pissing in their pants so there maybe some truth to this?
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Just the KE of such a device, even without a warhead would knock out an aircraft carrier.... but, as I earlier mentioned, it doubt the tall claims...
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In this point ,I don't agree with you.Maybe N-Korea can have a effect to be a Strategic buffer,but it is totally determined by geopolitics,and NK'slocation in the north of Korean Peninsula is not planed by China.
And why China have to do as what the US says,a country has a right to develop their technique,and as well as defence system.China never interfered other countries' internal issues.If they think what NK does has bored them,they can try to solve it by their own.It's unfair to abuse the country have different cultural values.It is so ridiculous to urge China take part in nonsense things as interfere other nation's issues such as Darfur ,Iran,and only US definite Darfur as genocidal.
At the same time ,I think China is so aggrieved.Everytime they want China to bear the responsibility,they will say China has already been a great power in the world,but if infering to rights distribution,they don't want to share with China,and China seems to be so weak.
In terms of power,America is the most powerful country in the world ,if US can't solve the problem,then China can't settle the problem,too.And you say China has been the back of NK for decades,that's maybe true,we help them a lot in economics.And the reason why we have to support them is that if we want to develop our economics ,we have to be in a peaceful environment,but if the NK can't support themselves ,so there will be a large number of refugees running into our northeast,and we may get into trouble too.You should know that NK vote againest our application for holding the 2000 Olympic Games.
I think NK can't compare with Japan nor S-Korea.And the issues may give Japan and S-Korea an excuse to expand their military.
Pintu
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According to BBC, launching of a rocket by NKorea, gave the USA President Obama a new headache,
The link and the report from BBC follows, below:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7985336.stm
North Korea a problem for Obama
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website
North Korea's launching of a rocket has, despite its apparent failure to put a satellite into orbit, provided a new headache for US President Barack Obama as he formulates his policy towards the unpredictable totalitarian state.
"The launch served a dual function," said Dr John Swenson-Wright of the think-tank Chatham House, who is based in South Korea.
President Barack Obama makes a statement on North Korea (5 April)
President Obama's dilemma is how far to negotiate and how far to threaten
"It would like to have placed a satellite in orbit, but it also wanted to make a successful rocket launch, and initial data suggests that this might have been partially successful."
He says North Korea was flexing its military muscles.
"This was also a political and diplomatic initiative, to show that the leadership is still in control after [President] Kim Jong-il's reported stroke... and it takes advantage of the new American president to strengthen its position.
"Its bottom line is to say: 'We are here and we matter and we act in our national interest'."
See satellite images of North Korea's launch pad
In firing the rocket, the North was, in the view of the US and its allies, in violation of UN Security Council resolution 1718.
This, passed in the aftermath of the North's claimed nuclear test in 2006, ordered it not to "conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile" and to "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile programme".
North Korea was probably trying to get round this provision by claiming that the aim was to launch a satellite.
To save face, it has announced that the satellite is working, beaming out revolutionary songs.
The nature of the launch certainly served the purpose of dividing the Security Council.
Russia wondered if the event had even transgressed 1718 and China urged caution anyway.
The US and others now want to increase sanctions, but these have not worked much up until now, and North Korea is not responsive to them.
The reason that the US and the North's neighbours are so concerned is that, if one day North Korea makes a nuclear warhead capable of being carried on a ballistic missile and it develops that missile successfully, it will have become a fully fledged nuclear-armed state.
Headache for Obama
As for the efforts to try to get the North to stop its nuclear weapons development, the ongoing six-party talks on the issue - made up of North Korea, its regional neighbours and the US - are stalled over the question of verifying the shutdown of the Yongbyon plant, including its plutonium plant.
An undated photo of North Korean missile test
North Korea's missile programme
Reaction to North Korea launch
In pictures: Space launch
President Obama has recently appointed his special envoy for North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, who is trying to work out how to get the talks restarted and what prospects they have.
"This is a headache for Obama," said John Swenson-Wright. "North Korea is very good at delay and at rewriting previous agreements.
"Its military is probably unhappy at the idea of losing the nuclear resource, so maybe it wants to hang on to it for as long as possible."
The fact is that nobody really knows what the North's ultimate intentions are.
It may want to dodge and weave its way past sanctions and talks, and one day develop a usable nuclear weapon and a missile that could deliver it.
Or it may be content to hold the world's attention while keeping its options open and making concessions here and there, withdrawing them when it feels the need.
President Obama's dilemma is how far to negotiate and how far to threaten. North Korea is a problem that Presidents Clinton and Bush could not solve before him.
Mr Obama does not have an easy task in front of him.
[email protected]
Graphic
The link and the report from BBC follows, below:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7985336.stm
North Korea a problem for Obama
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website
North Korea's launching of a rocket has, despite its apparent failure to put a satellite into orbit, provided a new headache for US President Barack Obama as he formulates his policy towards the unpredictable totalitarian state.
"The launch served a dual function," said Dr John Swenson-Wright of the think-tank Chatham House, who is based in South Korea.
President Barack Obama makes a statement on North Korea (5 April)
President Obama's dilemma is how far to negotiate and how far to threaten
"It would like to have placed a satellite in orbit, but it also wanted to make a successful rocket launch, and initial data suggests that this might have been partially successful."
He says North Korea was flexing its military muscles.
"This was also a political and diplomatic initiative, to show that the leadership is still in control after [President] Kim Jong-il's reported stroke... and it takes advantage of the new American president to strengthen its position.
"Its bottom line is to say: 'We are here and we matter and we act in our national interest'."
See satellite images of North Korea's launch pad
In firing the rocket, the North was, in the view of the US and its allies, in violation of UN Security Council resolution 1718.
This, passed in the aftermath of the North's claimed nuclear test in 2006, ordered it not to "conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile" and to "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile programme".
North Korea was probably trying to get round this provision by claiming that the aim was to launch a satellite.
To save face, it has announced that the satellite is working, beaming out revolutionary songs.
The nature of the launch certainly served the purpose of dividing the Security Council.
Russia wondered if the event had even transgressed 1718 and China urged caution anyway.
The US and others now want to increase sanctions, but these have not worked much up until now, and North Korea is not responsive to them.
The reason that the US and the North's neighbours are so concerned is that, if one day North Korea makes a nuclear warhead capable of being carried on a ballistic missile and it develops that missile successfully, it will have become a fully fledged nuclear-armed state.
Headache for Obama
As for the efforts to try to get the North to stop its nuclear weapons development, the ongoing six-party talks on the issue - made up of North Korea, its regional neighbours and the US - are stalled over the question of verifying the shutdown of the Yongbyon plant, including its plutonium plant.
An undated photo of North Korean missile test
North Korea's missile programme
Reaction to North Korea launch
In pictures: Space launch
President Obama has recently appointed his special envoy for North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, who is trying to work out how to get the talks restarted and what prospects they have.
"This is a headache for Obama," said John Swenson-Wright. "North Korea is very good at delay and at rewriting previous agreements.
"Its military is probably unhappy at the idea of losing the nuclear resource, so maybe it wants to hang on to it for as long as possible."
The fact is that nobody really knows what the North's ultimate intentions are.
It may want to dodge and weave its way past sanctions and talks, and one day develop a usable nuclear weapon and a missile that could deliver it.
Or it may be content to hold the world's attention while keeping its options open and making concessions here and there, withdrawing them when it feels the need.
President Obama's dilemma is how far to negotiate and how far to threaten. North Korea is a problem that Presidents Clinton and Bush could not solve before him.
Mr Obama does not have an easy task in front of him.
[email protected]
Graphic
Pintu
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The Times of India reports that India calls for restraint over NKorea's missile test.
The link and The report from the Times of India follows:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...N-Korean-missile-test/articleshow/4367107.cms
India calls for restraint over N Korean 'missile test
7 Apr 2009, 0321 hrs IST, TNN
Print Email Discuss Share Save Comment Text:
NEW DELHI: India's ambivalence over the alleged ballistic missile test by North Korea was further exemplified by its reaction on Monday when the
foreign ministry called upon the international community to exercise restraint. This was even as it expressed concern over the possible destabilising effect of the development.
In response to a question, the official spokesperson said, "We have seen reports that variously describe the missile launch by DPR Korea as a satellite launch or a ballistic missile test. The issue is presently under consideration in the UN Security Council. We are concerned at the possible destabilising effect of these events in a volatile region."
He added, "While it is for the Security Council to come to a conclusion on the nature of the event and its relationship to its earlier resolutions, we hope that responses by all concerned will be restrained and proportionate."
India had on Sunday said the UN watchdog, IAEA, was the appropriate body to decide whether North Korea had violated its obligations to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) even as the US and some other countries condemned its long-range rocket test. Foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee said India's commitment to non-proliferation was total but it did not intend to sign the NPT as it was discriminatory and in favour of states with nuclear weapons.
The link and The report from the Times of India follows:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...N-Korean-missile-test/articleshow/4367107.cms
India calls for restraint over N Korean 'missile test
7 Apr 2009, 0321 hrs IST, TNN
Print Email Discuss Share Save Comment Text:
NEW DELHI: India's ambivalence over the alleged ballistic missile test by North Korea was further exemplified by its reaction on Monday when the
foreign ministry called upon the international community to exercise restraint. This was even as it expressed concern over the possible destabilising effect of the development.
In response to a question, the official spokesperson said, "We have seen reports that variously describe the missile launch by DPR Korea as a satellite launch or a ballistic missile test. The issue is presently under consideration in the UN Security Council. We are concerned at the possible destabilising effect of these events in a volatile region."
He added, "While it is for the Security Council to come to a conclusion on the nature of the event and its relationship to its earlier resolutions, we hope that responses by all concerned will be restrained and proportionate."
India had on Sunday said the UN watchdog, IAEA, was the appropriate body to decide whether North Korea had violated its obligations to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) even as the US and some other countries condemned its long-range rocket test. Foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee said India's commitment to non-proliferation was total but it did not intend to sign the NPT as it was discriminatory and in favour of states with nuclear weapons.
LETHALFORCE
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who is being hostile in the region?
Pintu
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The Times of India reports that Satellite Photos of NKorea's missile launch is released.
The link and the report from the Times of India are as follows:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...unch-satellite-photos/articleshow/4368623.cms
Satellite photos of NKorea missile launch released
7 Apr 2009, 0933 hrs IST, AFP
Print Email Discuss Share Save Comment Text:
SEOUL: A US-based research institute on Tuesday released what are believed to be the first publicly available satellite photographs of North
North Korea Missile
Satellite image released by the Institute for Science and International Security taken by Digitalglobe, shows what appears to be the Musudan-ri North Korean rocket or missile in flight. (AFP photo)
Korea's rocket launch.
The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington released satellite photos taken by DigitalGlobe, which showed the missile's exhaust plume and flames from burning propellant.
It said the images were taken a few kilometres away from the launch site at Musudan-ri on the northeast coast.
North Korea says its Sunday launch put a peaceful experimental communications satellite into orbit. Washington and its allies say the real purpose was to test a Taepodong-2 missile in defiance of UN
resolutions.
South Korea, Japan, the US military and a senior Russian official say no satellite has been detected in orbit.
Foreign analysts have described the launch as a failed test of a long-range missile. They say the second and third stages apparently failed to separate, causing the rocket to crash into the Pacific short of the designated area.
South Korean analysts said the Taepodong-2 missile still travelled some 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) -- double the range the North achieved in 1998 with a Taepodong-1 launch.
The link and the report from the Times of India are as follows:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...unch-satellite-photos/articleshow/4368623.cms
Satellite photos of NKorea missile launch released
7 Apr 2009, 0933 hrs IST, AFP
Print Email Discuss Share Save Comment Text:
SEOUL: A US-based research institute on Tuesday released what are believed to be the first publicly available satellite photographs of North
North Korea Missile
Satellite image released by the Institute for Science and International Security taken by Digitalglobe, shows what appears to be the Musudan-ri North Korean rocket or missile in flight. (AFP photo)
Korea's rocket launch.
The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington released satellite photos taken by DigitalGlobe, which showed the missile's exhaust plume and flames from burning propellant.
It said the images were taken a few kilometres away from the launch site at Musudan-ri on the northeast coast.
North Korea says its Sunday launch put a peaceful experimental communications satellite into orbit. Washington and its allies say the real purpose was to test a Taepodong-2 missile in defiance of UN
resolutions.
South Korea, Japan, the US military and a senior Russian official say no satellite has been detected in orbit.
Foreign analysts have described the launch as a failed test of a long-range missile. They say the second and third stages apparently failed to separate, causing the rocket to crash into the Pacific short of the designated area.
South Korean analysts said the Taepodong-2 missile still travelled some 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) -- double the range the North achieved in 1998 with a Taepodong-1 launch.
Pintu
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The Satellite image available at
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/slideshow/4368637.cms?imw=460
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/slideshow/4368637.cms?imw=460
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The Politics Of North Korea’s Missile Test
By Bhaskar Roy
The West may call it a rogue state, hermit Kingdom or a nation caught in a time warp of under development, but the Pyongyang regime has survived all efforts to bring it down. It continues to remain in the same place while one of its allies, the Soviet Union, collapsed and the other ally, China, opened up to the world and espoused market economy. The only area Pyongyang, however, marked progress is in its military. The country developed on the old Soviet era scud missiles to produce the Rondong and Taepodong series. Much of this technology was transferred to Pakistan and Iran. In its pursuit to achieve nuclear weapons capability, it received some substantial advice and technology from Pakistan. Some of this was admitted by the late Prime Minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto.
These were clandestine deals, proliferation. Pyongyang needed foreign exchange and nuclear technology to round up its long distance military capability, in its perception, to keep its enemies at bay and strengthen its bargaining capability with the USA. North Korea’s worst critics stood by and watched silently as they wanted Pakistan at times to acquire such muscle for geopolitical reasons, one being India. Had the USA so desired, it could have stopped at least Pakistan from these illegal deals and Pyongyang would have been deprived of nuclear weapons capability.
China was no innocent player in this game. Apart from its own proliferation and through Pakistani and some on its own, it was the facilitator in the North Korea-Pakistan exchanges. Most of these exchanges, including travel of personnel, transfer of technology and missile parts and components took place through China. The Shaheen Airlines of Pakistan, controlled by now in famous Dr. A.Q. Khan, used to refuel in China on the way to and from Pyongyang. Payment to the Chinese for fuel and services was paid in cash to cover tracks with no flight manifest on open record. All four countries including the USA had their agenda.
On the other hand, all US administrations since Harry Truman have been acting, hoping and praying for the collapse of North Korea. Different things have been tried but everything fell short since changing geo-political situations from Washington’s point of view stayed progress in mid-course. Foreign policy, especially in difficult areas, being personality driven have not stayed on a single course, with changes in critical personnel in the White House, State Department and the Pentagon.
North Korea is in dire need of food and energy. China supplements these to an extent politically acceptable. South Korea’s relations with the North witnessed seismic shifts, with Pyongyang mainly and deliberately responsible. The US-North Korean agreement for supply of light water reactors in exchange for Pyongyang giving up its nuclear reactor ambitions fell apart. George W. Bush achieved something by persuading Pyongyang and its leader Kim Jong-Il to dismantle their nuclear reactor. But Vice President Dick Cheney and his team of regime changers, which included Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfield, decided to squeeze the North Koreans even through humiliation. US interlocutors stopped shaking hands with their North Korean counterparts, and would not drink a toast with them at dinners. The exchanges became humiliating. The six-party talks became meaningless. The neo-conservatives forgot that in interactions between nations there is also an interaction between human beings. Each nation has its pride which is translated by the citizens.
A senior North Korean official told a visiting foreign journalist in 2003 that after studying what happened to Saddam Hussain, they were not going to give up on their missiles and nuclear weapons. Saddam was persuaded by the US and the western community to discard his WMD programme and long range missiles, and then attacked on false or manufactured intelligence. The official was not confiding state secrets to a foreign friend. Pyongyang wanted the message to go out to the right quarters.
There has been so much American propaganda about North Korea, especially Kim Jong-Il that it is difficult to discern between fact and fiction. Over decades it has been spread that Kim Jong-Il was eccentric, unbalanced mentally, and a sexual pervert. North Korea was about to collapse. They had information about the junior Kim’s bedroom but not about the country’s nuclear programme. Therefore, it is difficult to come to any reliable conclusion how far Pyongyang is from fabricating a real bomb, or whether they have a number of nuclear weapons in the basement. A. Q. Khan added to the confusion a few years ago remarking that the North Koreans had shown him a nuclear bomb, but he was not certain if it was real or a dummy!
Naturally, therefore, a large question looms whether Kim suffered a stroke at all, and if he had, how serious it was. He seems to be firmly on both feet and in control, if the April 5 missile test proves anything.
With the paucity of any official information from Pyongyang, it is difficult to say how successful the April 5 missile or carrier rocket test of the two stage booster, which the North Koreans call Unha-2, was. The South Koreans have confirmed the Unha-2 carried a small satellite payload, but it did not reach orbit stage. The North Koreans claim the test was successful, but that would be more for internal consumption. Western analysts claim the test was a failure.
The question is whether the test flight was really for a satellite launch or a test for the 6,500 km Taepodong missile capable of carrying a 500 to 1000 kg. war head. The initial study of the rocket’s trajectory does not confirm either, yet. But on the other hand, the Chinese developed their long range missiles and satellite boosters on the same technological plane initially to save costs.
There are indications that the test was a political statement from Pyongyang. They indicated this test sometime in mid-February, this year, just before US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton landed in Japan for her maiden visit to East Asia, including China, in her new position. From there to April 5, Pyongyang whipped up their propaganda about where they could be going because of the positions adopted by South Korea and Japan. They wanted to draw the maximum international attention, that they were being forced to take this path. This is akin to their so-called nuclear weapons test in 2006 which may have been a poof in the laboratory. That was a shout to the world that North Korea was no push over.
Pyongyang has been desperate to establish a full fledged relationship with the USA. But the other parties concerned oppose it for their own pressing reasons. Japan and South Korea see that such an eventuality could downgrade their own strategic relationship with the USA. China does not want to lose the North Korean card, and a North Korea-US normal relationship could lead to North-South unification, which is not in China’s interest. The Russians see North Korea as a kind of Cuba in East Asia. The USA still suffers from a fixation decades old. So much for peace, security and stability in East Asia.
The bottom line is if the Unha-2 was a Taepodong-2, it raises concerns not only for the USA but for India also. Given the record of North Korea’s missile transfers to Pakistan, it is well within the realm of possibility that the Taepodeong-2 technology could be transferred to Pakistan if Islamabad can pay for it. President Barack Obama may well keep this in consideration when pushing more military assistance to Pakistan in his new policy.
By Bhaskar Roy
The West may call it a rogue state, hermit Kingdom or a nation caught in a time warp of under development, but the Pyongyang regime has survived all efforts to bring it down. It continues to remain in the same place while one of its allies, the Soviet Union, collapsed and the other ally, China, opened up to the world and espoused market economy. The only area Pyongyang, however, marked progress is in its military. The country developed on the old Soviet era scud missiles to produce the Rondong and Taepodong series. Much of this technology was transferred to Pakistan and Iran. In its pursuit to achieve nuclear weapons capability, it received some substantial advice and technology from Pakistan. Some of this was admitted by the late Prime Minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto.
These were clandestine deals, proliferation. Pyongyang needed foreign exchange and nuclear technology to round up its long distance military capability, in its perception, to keep its enemies at bay and strengthen its bargaining capability with the USA. North Korea’s worst critics stood by and watched silently as they wanted Pakistan at times to acquire such muscle for geopolitical reasons, one being India. Had the USA so desired, it could have stopped at least Pakistan from these illegal deals and Pyongyang would have been deprived of nuclear weapons capability.
China was no innocent player in this game. Apart from its own proliferation and through Pakistani and some on its own, it was the facilitator in the North Korea-Pakistan exchanges. Most of these exchanges, including travel of personnel, transfer of technology and missile parts and components took place through China. The Shaheen Airlines of Pakistan, controlled by now in famous Dr. A.Q. Khan, used to refuel in China on the way to and from Pyongyang. Payment to the Chinese for fuel and services was paid in cash to cover tracks with no flight manifest on open record. All four countries including the USA had their agenda.
On the other hand, all US administrations since Harry Truman have been acting, hoping and praying for the collapse of North Korea. Different things have been tried but everything fell short since changing geo-political situations from Washington’s point of view stayed progress in mid-course. Foreign policy, especially in difficult areas, being personality driven have not stayed on a single course, with changes in critical personnel in the White House, State Department and the Pentagon.
North Korea is in dire need of food and energy. China supplements these to an extent politically acceptable. South Korea’s relations with the North witnessed seismic shifts, with Pyongyang mainly and deliberately responsible. The US-North Korean agreement for supply of light water reactors in exchange for Pyongyang giving up its nuclear reactor ambitions fell apart. George W. Bush achieved something by persuading Pyongyang and its leader Kim Jong-Il to dismantle their nuclear reactor. But Vice President Dick Cheney and his team of regime changers, which included Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfield, decided to squeeze the North Koreans even through humiliation. US interlocutors stopped shaking hands with their North Korean counterparts, and would not drink a toast with them at dinners. The exchanges became humiliating. The six-party talks became meaningless. The neo-conservatives forgot that in interactions between nations there is also an interaction between human beings. Each nation has its pride which is translated by the citizens.
A senior North Korean official told a visiting foreign journalist in 2003 that after studying what happened to Saddam Hussain, they were not going to give up on their missiles and nuclear weapons. Saddam was persuaded by the US and the western community to discard his WMD programme and long range missiles, and then attacked on false or manufactured intelligence. The official was not confiding state secrets to a foreign friend. Pyongyang wanted the message to go out to the right quarters.
There has been so much American propaganda about North Korea, especially Kim Jong-Il that it is difficult to discern between fact and fiction. Over decades it has been spread that Kim Jong-Il was eccentric, unbalanced mentally, and a sexual pervert. North Korea was about to collapse. They had information about the junior Kim’s bedroom but not about the country’s nuclear programme. Therefore, it is difficult to come to any reliable conclusion how far Pyongyang is from fabricating a real bomb, or whether they have a number of nuclear weapons in the basement. A. Q. Khan added to the confusion a few years ago remarking that the North Koreans had shown him a nuclear bomb, but he was not certain if it was real or a dummy!
Naturally, therefore, a large question looms whether Kim suffered a stroke at all, and if he had, how serious it was. He seems to be firmly on both feet and in control, if the April 5 missile test proves anything.
With the paucity of any official information from Pyongyang, it is difficult to say how successful the April 5 missile or carrier rocket test of the two stage booster, which the North Koreans call Unha-2, was. The South Koreans have confirmed the Unha-2 carried a small satellite payload, but it did not reach orbit stage. The North Koreans claim the test was successful, but that would be more for internal consumption. Western analysts claim the test was a failure.
The question is whether the test flight was really for a satellite launch or a test for the 6,500 km Taepodong missile capable of carrying a 500 to 1000 kg. war head. The initial study of the rocket’s trajectory does not confirm either, yet. But on the other hand, the Chinese developed their long range missiles and satellite boosters on the same technological plane initially to save costs.
There are indications that the test was a political statement from Pyongyang. They indicated this test sometime in mid-February, this year, just before US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton landed in Japan for her maiden visit to East Asia, including China, in her new position. From there to April 5, Pyongyang whipped up their propaganda about where they could be going because of the positions adopted by South Korea and Japan. They wanted to draw the maximum international attention, that they were being forced to take this path. This is akin to their so-called nuclear weapons test in 2006 which may have been a poof in the laboratory. That was a shout to the world that North Korea was no push over.
Pyongyang has been desperate to establish a full fledged relationship with the USA. But the other parties concerned oppose it for their own pressing reasons. Japan and South Korea see that such an eventuality could downgrade their own strategic relationship with the USA. China does not want to lose the North Korean card, and a North Korea-US normal relationship could lead to North-South unification, which is not in China’s interest. The Russians see North Korea as a kind of Cuba in East Asia. The USA still suffers from a fixation decades old. So much for peace, security and stability in East Asia.
The bottom line is if the Unha-2 was a Taepodong-2, it raises concerns not only for the USA but for India also. Given the record of North Korea’s missile transfers to Pakistan, it is well within the realm of possibility that the Taepodeong-2 technology could be transferred to Pakistan if Islamabad can pay for it. President Barack Obama may well keep this in consideration when pushing more military assistance to Pakistan in his new policy.
