As I said earlier, I am kind of a newbie here and lthough I agree with almost all the posts/views by the Shifus, my take is a little different here.
Although I was a strong votary of a Strongman Modi since long, and being there with him in couple of rallies in Bengal and observing him closely, can safely say his thinking is way more sinister than what most people actually realize. Also I want to clarify, that by no means, I want to sound like a Modi apologist, nor I am posting this to defend him or his actions or inactions.
Just to add, some of us jingoes had a quick little chat with the NSA, when Modi was touring Malaysia in Nov last year, and being an associate of 'Overseas Friend of BJP' we could be candid there. One thing I can say,Doval is rightly termed as Devil in Pakistan,even his own security detail would conform that. Also I personally had a chance to talk to Ram Madhav, one of the brains behind BJP-PDP alliance and J&K prabhari. I could have a direct chat with him for a couple of mins. and trust me he may shoot off mouth sometimes, he's no paltry one either.
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak"
"The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy"
Both are Sun Tzu quotes from the famed 'The Art of War'. In my humble view I think we need to Modi's Kojhikode speech and 'Mann ki Baat' a little seriously. M-D combination is actually applying Chinese medicine to a Chinese patient. Although post Parrikar period, there has been a betterment of Logistics and deposits, we're still off 30 day War wastage reserve.
In my view M-D is being sinister here, they're not willing to give any clue of the Indian military preparedness or temperament.It's all wrapped in a cloak of vagueness. Barring Diplomatic offensive and a little Economic offensive like IWT & MFN, nothing substantial will be done till we're ready for overt Action.BJP will not act aggressive, just to appear weak when the forces have been asked to sharpen their bayonets and you can trust me when I say they're sharpening their bayonets as we discuss this issue now. Govt. will be high on rhetoric and sound alarm in foreign capitals, but that's it. I doubt whether we'd want to tip off by removing the 'Lowlife' Abdul Basit even. We may go for an all out war even him being present here, just to rub it in.
Modi has to make sure that we need to be 'beyond the possibility of defeat' even if the jungjoo qaum uses TNWs,otherwise BJP may kiss any chance of coming back to power for the next 15-20 years. So capability building would be of prime importance in coming days.
I think we'll see an overt reaction by winter time, improbably by this year or the next but within 2018/19 winter time, just like 1971, just to cut off any direct military/infantry level intervention by you know who. Also every war/overt action has to achieve a political objective, as for a country like India, war is always a political option unlike our western neighbor and it must serve deliver a political result. Unless we're pretty sure our political objective will be met, and the question of defeat if negated, we cannot deep dive into an overt action just to calm some nerves, statecraft and especially warcraft cannot happen due to public pressure. Remember the mightiest America went on to famed 'War on terror' on 7th October 2001 and not on 9/12, the very next day! Even for the mightiest it took almost a month to go on a war.YOu'll remember Mrs. Gandhi went on to Diplomatic offensive from Oct/Nov 1970, and started touring the foreign capitals. But when did the FM Manekshaw launch the attack? 3rd December 1971, almost 13/14 months later. Like now, Indian Armed forces were sharpening their bayonets and increasing the capabilities during this long time so that any chances of failure is absolutely negated.
That brings us to the last & moot question, what can be the immediate political objective of an overt action? Secession of Balochistan is a long process may be 2/3 or 5 year plan, Sindhu desh, Pakhtunistan even longer. But if M-D duo stays in power till 2024, you can be rest assured the Pakistan as we know it would not survive till then. So what can be the immediate Political objective in next 1/2 or 3 years? For me it's one and only POJK & GB. Remember Doval's famous speech at BSF function? Well here's the link -->
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 391553.cms
If this is the mindset of the present dispensation and if we're to believe the reports that India's Pak policy is managed by Doval himself, it all starts to make sense.
This will ensure China's OBOR plan for access to Arabian Sea is taken care off and the biggest message for world community, that India has arrived. Also it'll put an end to Pakistan's 'Last Hope' CPEC and will speed up their degeneration and eventually disintegration.
So till we have that capability or capacity, we should act normal and create hoopla on the diplomatic fora and appear weak while continue to sharpen the bayonets. That'll indeed be the revenge, which will be served chilled.
And if all these inaction is just another 'Strategic Restraint' in another form and shape, will be happy to eat crow in May 2019..
Below are the few pics which will probably ensure that I was not just making this up..
