MiG 21s to be phased out from 2014

[Kunal Biswas]

Re: MiG-21s served us well, will be phased out by 2014, Air Chief tells NDTV

I read supplement not replace..

 

[p2prada]

Right! And the English got you?

 

[ersakthivel]

Now you are talking - LCA induction IS the solution. I am still wondering why HAL is not developing a high capacity manufacturing for the LCA Mk-1, which is still miles ahead of the Mig-21s (even the bisons). Once HAL builds a 25 aircraft per year capacity for the LCA mk-1, they can provide enough replacements for all the Mig-21s and Mig-27s that IAF needs to retire in 5-6 years. Then, once LCA Mk-2 gets FOC, HAL can build a second production line for LCA mk-2 and change the LCA mk-1 line for naval LCA or export models (maybe one after another). After that, the LCA Mk-1 manufacturing line can be mothballed or replaced with an AMCA manufacturing line.

As for the rest - A force structure of 50% LCA and 50% of MKI/ FGFA, MMRCA/ AMCA (total of 50 squadrons with ~1000 combat aircraft) is what IAF should look forward to post 2025.

Because IAF will never order them in numbers.That is the biggest mystery.IAf ordered 40 SUKHOIs and kept them without weaponisation for 10 years honing tactics. If they staraight away say we neeed atleast 200 LCAs, then GOI will place orders for 200 engines immediately.
And ask HAL to set up another assembly line for LCA.
Later MK-II can share the same production line.
Fighter production lines are not like carfactory. A mk-II with 1 meter exta fuselage length and with some extra wing length can be procuced on the same line. Almost ninety percent of the parts will be the same.
But IAF always believes something will tragically go wrong with LCA.This is unshakable.

Even eurofighters are ordered in tranches and then upgraded.
All the british eurofighters are flying at 80 percent of their G limits only because of vibration problem during manufacturing.
And their strike roll is not yet done.No asea either.
They have not yet fixed their problems.Still they promote their aircrafts in MMRCA.
And first rafale with ASEA is yet to make it's test flight.But IAF will select them for MMRCA.


Grippen will be allowed to participate in MMRCA with only one modified Grippen C/D.
I wouldn't even call it NG.The sedes are saying to swiss that look we will give you second hand GRippen C/d s to fly till 2017 then only Ng.
Swiss are preplexed. The first development flight of GRIPPEN NG is about to take place on 2013.
But IAF says grippen NG is excellent. The upgrades on NG is more complex than simple fuselage extensions for LCA mk-II.


But IAF will never consider ordering enough no of LCAs with the belief that they can be upgraded later.
Even the sukhoi is going for upgradation after 15 years of active service.So what is wrong if we upgrade LCA after 10 years?
The F-16 production started just 3 years after the maiden flight.All problems were later addressed.But even after 10 years of safe flights LCA can't satisfy IAF that too with world class GE engine. What is my astonishment is it is the most reliable engine in the world.


If they have finalised their commitments on LCA 3 years before LCA would have entered serial production now,Despite the deep knowledge about fighter LCA(IAF is involved from the start,unlike forien fighters where IAF pilot participation in design is nil) so it would have known all about it from test pilots three years before..
Even PAF has inducted JF-17 with lesser qualit engine..

Of the 970 Migs inducted 400+ met with accidents,but that doesn't shake the belief of IAf.Only two mirages of the 40+ operated were lost in the past 30 years.
LCA too belongs to the mirage clause.Despite ADA selecting GE engines IAF is not giving orders.
WHY?

 

[ersakthivel]

Still nobody is finalising any long range missiles for LCA.IAf seems to be quiet on this front also.All the eurofighters and RAFALEs that are flying now are flying with pulse doppler MMRS. But as far as LCA is concerned it must come out of production line with ASEA only.
Never mind you operate jaguars with no radars and operate migs whose safety record is one out of two will fall out of the sky within the service life.

But despite test pilot after test pilots giving good certificates LCA must not be ordered in any numbers. IAF is going to pay for this utopion fallacy.
With partially exposed compressor bladess they will order 5th gen PAKFA.
They will buy JAGs with worser navigational aids, and no radar, brand new, and upgrade them later with DARIN level.
And then name it as their DPSA.

No one will wishper about the engine qualities of MIg-27 and 21 and handling shortfalls.
If 2 sukhois are down they will ground the fleet and wait for russian help.
But highest standards will be followed on LCA

SO the sukhois have to fire the brahmos and do air to air and do everything. other than this and someMIG-29s and MIRAGES there is not much left in the IAF. RAFALE contract is yet to be finalized and firm production date yet to be stated.
All other MMRCA contenders are saying that the MMRCA contract is not yet closed.
It takes 7 years to evaluate the MMRCA bids and stii the contract is not signed.
The only one who is quiet is dasault. Then when will the firm delivery date will come for rafale?
all upgraded JAGS and MIG-21s and the about to be grounded 100 MIG-27s are just not warfighting machines of this millineium.

 

[ersakthivel]

Thanks for the heads up about OT.
Here's my two cents about Mig-21 and it's replacements - A short history of Mig-21, LCA Tejas and IAF requirements.

1. Mig-21s were used as air-superiority fighters in the Vietnam war - that was ~50 years back! The Mig-21s were the early 3rd gen fighters (although nobody counted generations back then). India got a few Mig-21s before the 1965 war, although there were not enough training and pilots to operate them). India finally used the Mig 21s for good in the 1971 war and were impressed by them.

2. By the 1980s, the lack of maneuverability of the Mig-21 compared to the new PAF F-16s and their obsolescence led the IAF to buy the Mig 29s from Soviet Union (SU). The Mig-21s were relegated to support roles and were meant to be used as point defense interceptors. However, the relatively "weak" engines of the Mig-21 meant that they were not very good as point defense interceptors too.

3. The Mig-29s being delivered by the already crumbling SU were having engine problems and creating a lot of trouble in IAF. The only good 4th gen fighters the IAF had were the Mirage 2000s bought from the French. In the mid 1980s, the IAF asked HAL to develop a "Mirage-type" (western design) 4th generation fighter for them to replace the Mig-21s for interception and support roles. That was when ADA was founded and LCA was conceived. So, LCA was designated as the Mig-21 replacement from the beginning.

4. However, in the first half of 1990s, India went through one of the most potent forex crisis in it's history. India's credit rating hit new lows, the economy was in shambles after the collapse of the Eastern Bloc, India's largest trading partner. All defense projects were hit by the economic downturn and no new LCA funding were available. Only after 1995 when India's economy had started to revive thanks to IT boom, did GoI put in some more funds for LCA design and development.

5. Shortly afterwards however, the govt changed, BJP came to power in 1996. The tenor of India's foreign and defense policy changed, with the explosion of nuclear bombs in 1998. At the critical time of LCA development (1998-2000), when foreign collaborations and component buying should have happened, the western governments put in critical sanctions on Indian defense industries, leading to extreme delays in the LCA project in general and the Kaveri engine in particular. Remember, India's biggest problem/ handicap has been it's industrial manufacturing limitations - especially in terms of metallurgy and manufacturing process development. Engines are particularly affected by a combination of these two. There are only 5-6 countries in the world who have the metallurgical technology to develop a 4th generation turbojet engine - USA, Russia, Britain/ Germany, France and Japan. PRC is still trying to catchup and so is India.

6. By the time LCA was ready with the prototypes, the Kaveri had failed critical tests. So, in desparation (and to avoid more Russian engines), India turned to western sources - GE 404 was chosen for the prototypes and then for Mk-1. For the LCA Mk-2 a competition was held, between GE/ EADS - finally GE won the contract with the GE 414. The Kaveri engine development was decoupled from LCA and is being tried out through a JV with Snecma (Mirage again).

7. So, in summary, LCA was, is and should be the real replacement for the Mig 21s. The reason LCA is so late is as much technical as political. Actually it is ALL political - given it's history, it is a miracle that the LCA is still alive and kicking. GoI and MoD should hunker down, throw a whole pot of money, as much brains and indsutrial power as they can and see the LCA through ASAP - to replace the Mig-21s. With India's current ability and clout, we can do it by 2015. Mass production from 2016 (25-30 a year) would put ~250/ 300 LCAs in IAF by 2025, replacing all the Mig-21s, Mig-27s and even the Jaguars due to retire by then.

Even if you post it hundred times people will always call that lca which was finalised in the 1980s which is 30 yearas old and hasn't got it's FOC is obsolete.
And they will buy all sukhois and rafales which belong to the same generation and older than LCA design.
The IAF objections also played their part.They refused set aside anything from their budget. ACM KRISHNAMOORTHy wrote a letter to GOI saying ADA is not upto the mark and LCA is too complex and unrealistic.

The MOD faced with fierce opposition from IAF further delayed the funding.
Then the scientific adviser to GOVT ABDUL KALAM intervened and brokered peace between IAF and MOD.
.
According to the compromise LCA program further got delayed with
two TDs first proof of design checked for 5 years.
and few PVs later and then only LSPs.

Even this much progress of LCA is due to ABDUL KALAM's intervention with the government which resulted in the TDs first and PVs later.
If it is not for him it would have been finished right then.
We would have had 100s of a mig apes with some dilapitated MIG engines masquerading as LCA in the IAF
Only after USSR collapsed in 1993 and spares for migs became scarce every one started to bang the back of ADA.
That explains why funding was cleared in 1993. not due to the magnanimity of MOD and IAF.
Funding to first TD flight it just took 8 years.If more funds were released earlier more LSPs were produced simultaneously it would have finished it's FOC by 2007.
Even thogh the KAVERY engine failed Ge engine was always there as a back up.
But seeds of delay was shown earlier.

 

[ersakthivel]

more pilots will die for sure..HAL is going to build most of MMRCA fighters which will take decade to finish.i dont understand why is HAL going to gain by assembling almost all MMRCA planes?? before mig 21 are phased out all of them might crash...do our pilots deserve this delay??

SOmeone like CAG has to conduct an inquiry regarding what was gained by HAL in license building under TOT thousands of russian fighters?
Now why is it attempting the same with RAFALE.First of all it must explain why it wants to build rafale here?
The BEML is building the TATRA truck for eons under license with TOT. still they haven't changed the driver seat to the right.
All critical components are imported for a TRUCK.
The TATA MOTORS and ASHOK LEYLAND are among the top 10 truck makers in the world.
By questioning this poor GENERAL V.K. Singh lost an year of his tenure.
Such is the myth called TOT.
Such is the power of TOT import lobby.

If HAL too is doing this. We should ask the french to build RAFALE and ask the HAL to build LCA properly first.
No other fighter manufacturer in the world builds so many varied platforms under it's belt.
So why is GOI putting RAFALE too under it's belt.
They say KORAPUT kanpur facility is building SUKHOI engine from scratch.
But still we don't have single crystal blade tech.
Like that if we have to build rafale with such TOT level, we can better leave it to the french.

 

[Armand2REP]

Air Chief Marshall Browne: Well coming to HAL first, let me put it this way. They have their hands full they have some very big programs you know on the table and whether it's to do with helicopter, FGF phase programs as you mentioned, the mirage overall and so many issues. So we are dependent a lot on HAL. In fact that is the only aviation industry we have today in the country supporting the IAF. And as time goes by you can see them getting more and more involved. But then of course what we are looking at also is the need for greater response to deliveries, you know in terms of time much better quality in terms of the product itself and HAL has to just get on with it because we cannot afford to have these delays taking place, slip ups happening. It affects our training schedule, it affects our induction schedules. So like I said they have a lot of food on the table, they need to sort that out and get on with each one.

Sounds rather critical of HAL...