Making India an Upper Middle Income Economy, a High Income Economy in long term

S.A.T.A

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Problem is demographic changes , no ones talking about that
whatever the nature of the demographic, if we can't feed it, cloth it, provide appropriate medical care, educate it, then such demographics confers us no advantages to increase national productivity.
 

Compersion

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The policies by the united states and by trump -

The policies by the Republic of India and by Modi -

is one better at execution and marketing? seems USA has low (trump wants even lower now) interest rates, aggressive tariffs and policies to promote indigenization, citizenship protection measures (from illegal entrants), and more. infrastructure push, promotion of companies, defense etc, etc, etc
 

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Statsguru: India's population profile explained through six charts

India's population profile
The recently released Sample Registration System data has many critical insights on states, and thus form a key input in designing state-specific policies on public health.
Look at the share of children and youth in some key states (Chart 1). While median age in India lies between 20 and 24 (2017), age profiles vary drastically across states. People nearing their 30s are the biggest cohort in Tamil Nadu and Punjab, but children are more than a third of the population in Bihar.
Though India’s total fertility rate (TFR) is nearing replacement rate of 2.1, that for rural Indian women is still high. One reason that explains the slower reduction in TFR is that the age group where family planning peaks is the most populous age cohort in India in current times (Chart 2).
One reason could be the prevalence of giving birth to children at early age of marriage. Chart 3 shows that marital fertility is highest in the age bracket of 15 to 19 for Bihar and Assam. This means that couples where the woman is below 20 tend to have more children than elder couples in these states.
For poorer states, deaths at early age are as ubiquitous as early-age pregnancies. Nearly 20 per cent of deaths are in below the five year mark in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, twice the proportion at the national average (Chart 4).
This is the biggest block in reaching the sustainable development goal of under-five mortality rate of 25 by 2030
(Chart 5).
Education influences family planning like nothing else, and propensity to rear children reduces with education. Chart 6 shows that for women who have completed graduation, total fertility rate is as low as 1.4. If this is imitated at the national level, it would cause a decline in the population.
 

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India to launch its 1st human genome cataloguing project
Department of Biotechnology to rope in 22 partners for project that will help develop better therapies.

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Several countries have embarked on mapping the genetic mark up of their own population to better understand disease profiles.
MUMBAI: India will launch its first human genome mapping project by October, a move that will help researchers get closer to developing effective therapies for treating diseases such as cancer. In the first phase of the initiative called the Genome India project, the genomic data of 10,000 Indians will be catalogued. The Department of Biotechnology (DBT) has initiated the project.
“This is going to be transformational for our healthcare because these days disease management is all about data,” DBT secretary Renu Swarup said in an exclusive interview to ET. “For new advancements in medical science like predictive diagnosis and precision medicine, genomic information is key and the backbone.”
A genome is an organism’s complete set of DNA, including all its genes. It contains all the information needed to build and maintain that organism. By sequencing the genome, researchers can discover the functions of genes and identify which of them are critical for life.
The DBT said it will build on its own experience of genomic cataloguing and rope in 22 partner organisations including public health institutions that have obtained regulatory ethical clearances.
Investigators in hospitals will lead the data collection through a simple blood test from participants and the information will be added to bio banks. Swarup expects the DBT will capture data from more than 10,000 people over the next three years and link them to its bio banks and bio repository.
Across the world, predictive diagnosis and precision medicine based on the genetic makeup of patients are emerging fields in the treatment of diseases such as cancer and other genetic disorders. The Genome India project will aim to make predictive diagnostic markers available for some priority diseases such as cancer and other rare and genetic disorders, Swarup explained.
The DBT has started establishing diagnostic labs for genetic testing and counselling services and a programme to train clinicians to produce skilled personnel to set up more such labs. The department has also initiated an outreach programme to provide genetic diagnosis and counselling to families affected by common genetic disorders in certain districts. The Human Genome Project, which was completed in 2003, was led by an international team of researchers looking to sequence and map all the genes – together known as the genome – of human beings.
Several countries have embarked on mapping the genetic mark up of their own population to better understand disease profiles. The UK said in 2013 that it will undertake the sequencing of 100,000 whole genomes of patients suffering from cancer and rare diseases. The project was extended to 1 million in 2018. Genomic England, the organisation that runs the programme, has said that its aim is to create a new genomic medicine service for the National Health Service – transforming the way people are cared for.

However, there are concerns over the use of genetic data. According to a report published in April by UK data consulting firm Ipsos MORI, there are clear limits for how far the public thought genomic data and the information derived from it should be used.
Some of the red lines it raised were genetic engineering, use of genomic data to differentiate groups within society, and predictive insurance tests and targeted marketing.
Participants wanted assurances that there is a robust governance framework and consent process in place that makes clear the intended use of their data, the Ipsos report said.
 

vampyrbladez

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Putting this here from another thread.

Look, I'm not a fan of Nehru bashing or indeed of most leaders . Hindsight is always 20/20. With the exception of Rahul Gandhi, not all Congress leaders can be tarnished completely. Sure, there are many mistakes and almost definitely, their push to socialism messed up a lot of things but this was not an easy change to be made when they did it. It's not like Modi's economic policies are anything to Tom Tom out, he's as big a fan of big government as any socialist. We have had two stretches where economic plans were different, during PVN and ABV. That's it.

China grew post the mid 1980's and that kind of change was not politically acceptable in india. For heavens sake even now Modi's government struggles with labour laws that are made for the last century.

It's easy to criticize and easier to blame it on people you dislike but the reason for our situation is complex and must be understood that way.
Nehru started this clusterfuck called socialism that has crippled innovation and wealth creation in this country. Sucking big government's teat to survive has become a habit/addiction of the general Indian economic mindset. Indira then nationalised all the big banks and taxed & regulated businesses at unsustainable rates thus resulting in the creation of black money in India and babudom.

By taking advantage of the government apparatus Sanjay and then Rajiv made scams which were an occasional occurrence due to Gandhian stewardship hangover from independence days in Congress turn into a regular occurence of impossibly large sums. Sonia just followed in her husband's footsteps and Pappu held onto his mama's pallu.

China opened up to the West after Nixon turned them into a neutral partner. In the 1980s - 90s they were where India was in the 2000s in the global food chain thanks primarily to their nukes and size. After Clinton came to power, they were admitted into the WTC and then the outsourcing chutiyapa started thanks to NAFTA.

Lobbying for outsourcing by big businesses was used as a means to escape from unions that emerged in the 40s and cultural shift in the 60s and using Reagan's policy of free market deregulation. The original intent was to transition to a services market with consumer manufacturing relegated to asian markets. Japan died out due to deflation but China persisted and thrived because US did not factor rare earth magnet production used in semiconductors into their calculations.

Modi is trying to modernise the economy via GST, Demo and digitisation to allow ease of business and by allowing and encouraging FII/FDI to startups and JVs to allow private sector to compete with PSUs. Rejigging PSUs will allow them to keep existing base and also provide a state sponsored solution to consumer. The free market will then find it's own equilibrium as degree of entropy stabilizes.
 

The Ultranationalist

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Putting this here from another thread.



Nehru started this clusterfuck called socialism that has crippled innovation and wealth creation in this country. Sucking big government's teat to survive has become a habit/addiction of the general Indian economic mindset. Indira then nationalised all the big banks and taxed & regulated businesses at unsustainable rates thus resulting in the creation of black money in India and babudom.

By taking advantage of the government apparatus Sanjay and then Rajiv made scams which were an occasional occurrence due to Gandhian stewardship hangover from independence days in Congress turn into a regular occurence of impossibly large sums. Sonia just followed in her husband's footsteps and Pappu held onto his mama's pallu.

China opened up to the West after Nixon turned them into a neutral partner. In the 1980s - 90s they were where India was in the 2000s in the global food chain thanks primarily to their nukes and size. After Clinton came to power, they were admitted into the WTC and then the outsourcing chutiyapa started thanks to NAFTA.

Lobbying for outsourcing by big businesses was used as a means to escape from unions that emerged in the 40s and cultural shift in the 60s and using Reagan's policy of free market deregulation. The original intent was to transition to a services market with consumer manufacturing relegated to asian markets. Japan died out due to deflation but China persisted and thrived because US did not factor rare earth magnet production used in semiconductors into their calculations.

Modi is trying to modernise the economy via GST, Demo and digitisation to allow ease of business and by allowing and encouraging FII/FDI to startups and JVs to allow private sector to compete with PSUs. Rejigging PSUs will allow them to keep existing base and also provide a state sponsored solution to consumer. The free market will then find it's own equilibrium as degree of entropy stabilizes.
Nehru was no doubt a jackass but his efforts furthered the nation on the path of industrialisation. In those times private sector was not strong enough so heavy industries had to be set up by the state. And socialism is not a bad thing communism is. We should not confuse socialism with communism.
 

Haldiram

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Putting this here from another thread.



Nehru started this clusterfuck called socialism that has crippled innovation and wealth creation in this country. Sucking big government's teat to survive has become a habit/addiction of the general Indian economic mindset. Indira then nationalised all the big banks and taxed & regulated businesses at unsustainable rates thus resulting in the creation of black money in India and babudom.

By taking advantage of the government apparatus Sanjay and then Rajiv made scams which were an occasional occurrence due to Gandhian stewardship hangover from independence days in Congress turn into a regular occurence of impossibly large sums. Sonia just followed in her husband's footsteps and Pappu held onto his mama's pallu.

China opened up to the West after Nixon turned them into a neutral partner. In the 1980s - 90s they were where India was in the 2000s in the global food chain thanks primarily to their nukes and size. After Clinton came to power, they were admitted into the WTC and then the outsourcing chutiyapa started thanks to NAFTA.

Lobbying for outsourcing by big businesses was used as a means to escape from unions that emerged in the 40s and cultural shift in the 60s and using Reagan's policy of free market deregulation. The original intent was to transition to a services market with consumer manufacturing relegated to asian markets. Japan died out due to deflation but China persisted and thrived because US did not factor rare earth magnet production used in semiconductors into their calculations.

Modi is trying to modernise the economy via GST, Demo and digitisation to allow ease of business and by allowing and encouraging FII/FDI to startups and JVs to allow private sector to compete with PSUs. Rejigging PSUs will allow them to keep existing base and also provide a state sponsored solution to consumer. The free market will then find it's own equilibrium as degree of entropy stabilizes.
One thing I find good about him is the nuclear policy. Given the kind of person that he was, it would have been very easy for him not to pursue nuclear energy, and his White masters would have surely known that India was working on nuclear reactors. Despite that, he pressed on, instead of cowing down to foreign pressure. He started out as a naive globalist thinking that the world can work on a common agenda of humanity, and he died after realizing that all nations, be it China or UK or US look out for national interests, not global interests.

Text-book version socialism is dead now and can never be revived but certain common-minimum social protection schemes actually boost capitalism, for example, if you have a national 'universal healthcare/insurance' program, a factory owner can rest easy knowing that his workers have health cover. In the absence of such a program, his workers would demand higher salaries to avail the costs of private medical care and hurt company margins. Same with education.

Certain things must be community owned and kept subsidized so that your workforce remains up-to-date. You don't want a situation where only 10% of your population is computer literate and the rest could not afford education. Then your entire workforce will lag behind other nations who give subsidies to raise a skilled workforce.

The kind of socialism that leads to your labor force being skilled, well fed and healthy is actually capitalism through other means. Think like a factory owner >> you want your slaves to be good with the tools they use but not spend your own money training them (subsidized govt. education), and be disease free (subsidized universal healthcare), so that your factory productivity is high and labor costs are low.
 
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ezsasa

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ezsasa

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Nehru was no doubt a jackass but his efforts furthered the nation on the path of industrialisation. In those times private sector was not strong enough so heavy industries had to be set up by the state. And socialism is not a bad thing communism is. We should not confuse socialism with communism.
Private sector was not strong because he didn’t allow it to happen..
 

vampyrbladez

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Nehru was no doubt a jackass but his efforts furthered the nation on the path of industrialisation. In those times private sector was not strong enough so heavy industries had to be set up by the state. And socialism is not a bad thing communism is. We should not confuse socialism with communism.
At one point, South Korea was so poor that their capital was designed based on Karachi.

Many countries sought to emulate Pakistan's economic planning strategy and it has been learnt that one of them was South Korea, who replicated the second "Five-Year Plan" and World Financial Center in Seoul was designed and modeled after Karachi. It is also said tht Dr. Mahbub ul Haq a renowned Pakistani econmist and the originator of the Human Development Index (HDI), gave five year plan to South Korea which helped South Korea to progress rapidly.
http://theseoultimes.com/ST/?url=/ST/db/read.php?idx=9987

Damn Paki ******s were doing great when Nehru was alive and we were struggling to implement even 5 year plans. At that time rather than going on a nationalising spree, government should have allowed for economic diversification and pushed heavily for JV with Soviets and neutral Western powers. Bokaro Steel Plant is an excellent example of such cooperation.
 

vampyrbladez

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One thing I find good about him is the nuclear policy. Given the kind of person that he was, it would have been very easy for him not to pursue nuclear energy, and his White masters would have surely known that India was working on nuclear reactors. Despite that, he pressed on, instead of cowing down to foreign pressure. He started out as a naive globalist thinking that the world can work on a common agenda of humanity, and he died after realizing that all nations, be it China or UK or US look out for national interests, not global interests.
He didn't accept Kennedy's offer for cooperation in the nuclear arena. Kennedy happens to be the most Indophilic US President of all time wth a view to counter and contain China.

Had India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru accepted US President John F Kennedy’s offer of helping India detonate a nuclear device much before China did in 1964, India need not have to make desperate efforts to enter the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) now, according to former Foreign Secretary Maharajakrishna Rasgotra.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-of-the-nsg/articleshow/52732667.cms?from=mdr

Text-book version socialism is dead now and can never be revived but certain common-minimum social protection schemes actually boost capitalism, for example, if you have a national 'universal healthcare/insurance' program, a factory owner can rest easy knowing that his workers have health cover. In the absence of such a program, his workers would demand higher salaries to avail the costs of private medical care and hurt company margins. Same with education.
The US has to now issue waivers to Obamacare for states in order to bring down premiums. When the sick and healthy get charged at the same rate and there is no competition and just a single payer market, the middle class will subsidize the overwhelming mass of uninsured poor and not the rich.



https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/09...ike-heres-how-states-are-lowering-them-again/

You need to have some level of competition or this universal health scheme must be one by government dole aka Ayushman Bharat paid for by the public treasury.

The Ayushman Bharat—Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB- PMJAY), also dubbed Modicare, which is billed as the world’s largest health assurance scheme, aims to provide free health insurance of ₹5 lakh per family to nearly 40% of the population—more than 100 million poor and vulnerable families—based on the Socio Economic Caste Census.

The premium payment expenditure will be shared by the central and state governments. The scheme covers most secondary and many tertiary hospitalizations, which poor people usually cannot afford. The government will need a lot of funds to finance the scheme.
https://www.livemint.com/politics/p...t-of-health-services-first-1552333564482.html

Certain things must be community owned and kept subsidized so that your workforce remains up-to-date. You don't want a situation where only 10% of your population is computer literate and the rest could not afford education. Then your entire workforce will lag behind other nations who give subsidies to raise a skilled workforce.

The kind of socialism that leads to your labor force being skilled, well fed and healthy is actually capitalism through other means. Think like a factory owner >> you want your slaves to be good with the tools they use but not spend your own money training them (subsidized govt. education), and be disease free (subsidized universal healthcare), so that your factory productivity is high and labor costs are low.
I would rather give tax credits as a means for this. For example TCS can certify and provide paid internships to 5000 people for a certain tax credit or rebate. Government can then have job fairs for those who were not absorbed into main TCS workforce again using those same tax rebates principle for other companies.

Money saved by those companies must be mandated by law to be reinvested into the company or to suppliers. Under no circumstances must senior executives be allowed to accord themselves bonuses with that money to prevent stagnation of funding.
 

Haldiram

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He didn't accept Kennedy's offer for cooperation in the nuclear arena. Kennedy happens to be the most Indophilic US President of all time wth a view to counter and contain China.



https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...-of-the-nsg/articleshow/52732667.cms?from=mdr



The US has to now issue waivers to Obamacare for states in order to bring down premiums. When the sick and healthy get charged at the same rate and there is no competition and just a single payer market, the middle class will subsidize the overwhelming mass of uninsured poor and not the rich.



https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/09...ike-heres-how-states-are-lowering-them-again/

You need to have some level of competition or this universal health scheme must be one by government dole aka Ayushman Bharat paid for by the public treasury.



https://www.livemint.com/politics/p...t-of-health-services-first-1552333564482.html



I would rather give tax credits as a means for this. For example TCS can certify and provide paid internships to 5000 people for a certain tax credit or rebate. Government can then have job fairs for those who were not absorbed into main TCS workforce again using those same tax rebates principle for other companies.

Money saved by those companies must be mandated by law to be reinvested into the company or to suppliers. Under no circumstances must senior executives be allowed to accord themselves bonuses with that money to prevent stagnation of funding.
Community subsidized health care doesn't have to be subsidized by the government/tax-payer money. It could be a group insurance scheme whose premium is paid for by the person himself. It's just that pooling the resources makes it cheaper. The gormint's role must be just to make it mandatory for people/employers to get insurance for their employees like the PPF and NPS deductions which are mandatory but remain in your own name (but the people must be given a choice to pick their own insurance scheme from a bank of their choice).

RE : Tax credits

Even that is not needed. People are voluntarily paying college fees and spending 4 years in college out of their own pockets anyway. Just need to keep those costs controlled, unlike US universities. For example, as long as IGNOU exists and has the same legal status as a degree from an expensive private college, there's no one stopping the private college from charging whatever fees they want under their pro-profit model. Amity can give AC rooms, amphitheater halls and charge 2L/pm fees, no issues. Let there be capitalism there. The subsidization in education and healthcare must not be a monopoly of government universities and hospitals, rather, the govt. must run these institutes for those who want cheaper options. Keyword here is "option" and not monopoly.

There should be neither 100% sarkari monopoly like the bank nationalization drama, nor capitalist monopoly like American Big Pharma lobby who has artificially inflated the costs of insulin medicine 100X in 10 years. The government's presence in these fields must act as a cost rationalization mechanism to costlier private alternatives (education, health, telecom). The private industry can aim for top quality premium service at a for-profit rates, and govt. can ensure medium quality services at an affordable rate.
 
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IndianHawk

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Community subsidized health care doesn't have to be subsidized by the government/tax-payer money. It could be a group insurance scheme whose premium is paid for by the person himself. It's just that pooling the resources makes it cheaper. The gormint's role must be just to make it mandatory for people/employers to get insurance for their employees like the PPF and NPS deductions which are mandatory but remain in your own name (but the people must be given a choice to pick their own insurance scheme from a bank of their choice).

RE : Tax credits

Even that is not needed. People are voluntarily paying college fees and spending 4 years in college out of their own pockets anyway. Just need to keep those costs controlled, unlike US universities. For example, as long as IGNOU exists and has the same legal status as a degree from an expensive private college, there's no one stopping the private college from charging whatever fees they want under their pro-profit model. Amity can give AC rooms, amphitheater halls and charge 2L/pm fees, no issues. Let there be capitalism there. The subsidization in education and healthcare must not be a monopoly of government universities and hospitals, rather, the govt. must run these institutes for those who want cheaper options. Keyword here is "option" and not monopoly.

There should be neither 100% sarkari monopoly like the bank nationalization drama, nor capitalist monopoly like American Big Pharma lobby who has artificially inflated the costs of insulin medicine 100X in 10 years. The government's presence in these fields must act as a cheaper alternative to costlier private alternatives (education, health, telecom). The private industry can aim for top quality premium service at a for-profit rates, and govt. can ensure medium quality services at an affordable rate.
With Ayushman Bharat govt is already in health insurance for low income people. (50% population). That 5 lakh cover is genius move.

Now govt must extended that to 5 , 10 lakh cover and extend it to middle class people who can't trust private industry as coverage is low in small towns and claims are denied often.

These 10 lakh cover can have same premium as private company but with govt backing they'll be more reliable and people could buy them without worry. (LIC has too much premium over Market for health insurance).

That move could see health coverage for 90 % population. Rest 10 % are anyway rich.
 

Haldiram

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With Ayushman Bharat govt is already in health insurance for low income people. (50% population). That 5 lakh cover is genius move.

Now govt must extended that to 5 , 10 lakh cover and extend it to middle class people who can't trust private industry as coverage is low in small towns and claims are denied often.

These 10 lakh cover can have same premium as private company but with govt backing they'll be more reliable and people could buy them without worry. (LIC has too much premium over Market for health insurance).

That move could see health coverage for 90 % population. Rest 10 % are anyway rich.
Right. That's exactly what I'm saying. These schemes had earlier come under fire from RW folks labeling them as socialist doles. These are no doles. Get the citizen to pay for his own health cover. The gormint must only play the role of a facilitator of monthly premium deductions (like the tax incentives they give now for monthly premiums). The premium rates must be kept in line with wage inflation. Private hospitals like Apollo and Fortis will obviously continue to price their 5-star services north of inflation, as is their business model. They are more into hospitality than hospitals. Owning their stock is good for financial health but, being admitted there is bad for our financial health.

As long as the gormint gives us an affordable option that is not the stinky municipality hospitals (which is what one can get for free, can't blame them), but there should be something slightly better which need not be necessarily free, but moderately priced.
 
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