Very true. For all I know the winner has already been decide. Yes, it's the Dassault Rafale again. Then why are we giving the French a second chance?
This new tender might just be a very cleverly disguised arm twisting tactic by the Indian govt. It's the same MRCA deal but with the new 'Make in India' tagline, clearly a signal of intent to Dassault that in this case the power lies with the buyer, a nation of 1.2 billion people with bargaining & heckling in their DNA. Basically what the Indian govt. wants the French to do is to open a parallel assembly line in India which they are understandably reluctant to do as it means loss of French jobs, sharing of sensitive technology (given the price is right) and perhaps most importantly, loss of future lucrative after-sales spares/parts & support contracts wherein the actual long-term income is generated. Hell our jets have been crashing incessantly for the last 3 decades we can certainly wait out a few more can't we...and if not the French there's plenty of others to choose from.
Just consider the numbers,
the old MRCA tender was worth US$20 billion that was won by a French company with a market cap of US$12-15 billion in which the French govt. has a considerable stake. My point- if we can buy out Dassault itself then why should we settle for only 126 fighters that too at such prohibitive costs and terms? In the current economic scenario of slow growth, financial austerity and huge budget cuts the MRCA is the lifeblood of not only the French aviation industry but the French economy as well. Hence this deal has to be made on our terms. If not this year then certainly in the next couple of years they'll come around.
A lot of bold claims isn't it? Well there's a very good example to substantiate it-
the Sukhoi 30MKI. Before the gargantuan IAF order the Russian aviation industry was on the brink of extinction. It was only after the Indian order did the world market wake up to the fantastic possibilities offered by this jet. True the PLAAF had ordered it before us and that too in large quantities but it was the cold war era Su-27 in Soviet PVO configuration (75 purchased & 250+ reversed engineered illegally as Shenyang J-11). It was still a very limited fighter in terms of capability and not many nations took note of it.
The IAF on the other hand, rather than buying jets pre-configured for Soviet/Russia specific missions, tailored it to such an extent that the resultant aircraft turned out to be one of the best fighters in the world second only to the F-22 (in the heavy-class fighters).
In a domino effect, multiple variants of the Su-30 were sold to a dozen countries subsequently- China, Malaysia, Algeria, Indonesia, Vietnam, Venezuela etc. The Russian Air Force itself is now acquiring two different variants- M2 (based on the Chinese MKK) & SM (based on the IAF MKI) after being thoroughly impressed by its capabilities. It's heartening to know that the Malaysian & Algerian variants (MKM & MKA) were heavily inspired by our MKI variant. In fact, the IAF also provides them with pilot training & aircraft maintenance. So basically:
1) We brought back the Russian military-industrial complex from the dead and ensured its survival for the next couple of decades till it's traditional customer- the Russian Air Force returned to shape. Most importantly, it put the Russians back on the world map again and restored their own govt's confidence in it's defense industry to a significant extent.
2) The MKI was a result of IAF/ DRDO/ HAL ingenuity. Till date we are the only airforce in the world that is familiar with the best of both worlds- NATO as well as Russian fighters/tactics/personnel and this clearly reflects in the MKI design. Without this variant the true potential of the Su-30 platform would never have been realised.
3) It provided the Russians with funds to further develop the platform into the Su-34 interdiction/ strike fighter & the Su-35 dedicated air superiority variant which are also being offered for export besides being simultaneously inducted into the RuAF. Basically India & China have together paid for the modernisation of the RuAF. The 5th gen PAK FA/ FGFA owes a lot to this deal particularly Sukhoi which is it's lead contractor
India currently the world's biggest arms importer is by default also the most influential trend-setter in the defense market which is clear from the above example. Many people might find it hard to believe and they'll definitely point out that '
we're beggars not choosers '. I don't blame them for having that mentality. But I ask them to consider the present world scenario: we are in the 21st century in a tripolar world where capitalism is the dominant economic system and we have seen something in the MRCA competition that our cold-war/ non-alignment era ancestors could never have imagined in their wildest dreams- vicious
Competition among the world's top defense contractors. Rule of thumb- free market competition invariably ends up benefiting the buyers. I guess this is something the Indian defense establishment has come to realise during the course of the MRCA tender (damn 15 years in all
) and I'm glad that we didn't succumb to the whims and fancies of some teeny tiny West European nation
The French have already benefited a lot even without selling India a single aircraft. The very act of selecting the Rafale as the preferred bidder in the MRCA tender in January 2011 coupled with the subsequent performance of the jets in the 2011 Libyan Civil War breathed fresh life into the parent company Dassault who had struggled to secure a single export order till then. Buoyed by the fact that it's aircraft was the clear-cut winner in a surprisingly fair & transparent IAF evaluation process subject to MoD cost evaluations (this is the stage where all the disputes arose), the Rafale suddenly turned into a very attractive and marketable proposition overnight. Dassault then went on the aggressive and started reclaiming lost market share from the Eurofighter Typhoon & Saab Gripen. Till date the Rafale has confirmed sales in Egypt, Qatar & UAE with possible orders from Kuwait (subject to UAE & Qatar procurement) , Malaysia (they generally buy what the IAF buys), Finland (it's basically Rafale vs Gripen) & Canada.
The Canadian case is particularly interesting as it being a traditional American ally had committed to purchasing 65 F-35 Lightning II to replace its F-18 Hornet inventory but it lead to a huge political controversy in 2011 and subsequently the order was canceled in 2012. As of 2014 Dassault and Boeing were in the race to provide a replacement with Dassault offering Canada full ToT (second nation after India). Though the Canadian F-35 procurement and the Indian MRCA deal are completely different programs what is interesting is the timeline and how the events unfolded. I think forum readers are intelligent enough to read between the lines. It is clear that without the confidence of bagging the Indian deal, Dassault would not have made such an aggressive push in the American backyard.
So even before buying the 36 fighters in April 2015 the Indian MRCA has invariably given the Dassault brand a huge worldwide marketing boost. Hence, India as the buyer needs to dictate the terms & conditions of sale else the French stand to lose...a lot!
Rounding up, I feel that the French are one of our most bankable and reliable partners; besides the Russians and Israelis; and it's approach to aircraft development and production is markedly different and unique compared to the American and British industries. The Rafale is indeed a good choice depending upon which aircraft it intends to replace and this is where the confusion arises again. I'll take that up in another post and thanks for tolerating me so far.
