Lockheed May Pitch F-35; GoI Says No Plans to Buy F-35

[ace009]

Instead of shooting in the dark, can you back up your claim with a citation or a reference?



lol. f-35 will be no good without a weapon package.. so you need to consider the cost of weapon package too when negotiating the price of an aircraft. i am quite confident that IAF said 11 billion dollars deal which included weapon package. if not, it will be added later. so that will make this deal worth than 11 billion even for non 5th gen fighter.



the same agreements and constraints is one of the reason why american fighters were kicked out of the mmrca competition in the first place. IAF needs complete combat operational freedom which american fighters can never provide.

your 3million per aircraft is a complete joke.
Military Aircraft Maintenance Costs (by Jeremy Zawodny)
The last fully operational flying day of the Tomcat

Here is what I could find offhand for Rafale - when I have time, I can illuminate you with the rest. This is in WARTIME, for 8 Rafales and 3 Mirage 2000s. 11 A/C in total.
The detachment deployed at Solenzara comprises eight Rafales – a mix of single- and two-seaters – and three Mirage F-1CR dedicated reconnaissance aircraft, with 20 aircrew and supported by about 100 ground staff, 70% of them for Rafale, and 30 people to operate the intelligence detachment. Since Operation Harmattan (the French designation for enforcing the Libya No-Fly Zone) began on March 19, the detachment has flown 2,200 flight hours with over 1,500 in-flight refuellings, initially from their main operating base at Saint Dizier, in north-eastern France, and subsequently from Solenzara.

Aircraft turn-around, even with live weapons on board, requires only 90 minutes and an engine change requires one hour, although none have been changed during current operations.
Rafale in Combat: "War for Dummies"

 

[utubekhiladi]

Here is what I could find offhand for Rafale - when I have time, I can illuminate you with the rest. This is in WARTIME, for 8 Rafales and 3 Mirage 2000s. 11 A/C in total.
The detachment deployed at Solenzara comprises eight Rafales – a mix of single- and two-seaters – and three Mirage F-1CR dedicated reconnaissance aircraft, with 20 aircrew and supported by about 100 ground staff, 70% of them for Rafale, and 30 people to operate the intelligence detachment. Since Operation Harmattan (the French designation for enforcing the Libya No-Fly Zone) began on March 19, the detachment has flown 2,200 flight hours with over 1,500 in-flight refuellings, initially from their main operating base at Saint Dizier, in north-eastern France, and subsequently from Solenzara.

Aircraft turn-around, even with live weapons on board, requires only 90 minutes and an engine change requires one hour, although none have been changed during current operations.
Rafale in Combat: "War for Dummies"

first of all good find, any citation is better than none.

is aircrew equivalent to maintenance staff? i think aircrew is different, maintenance staff is different and ground crew is different.

my friend aircraft ground turn around is different from the maintenance that i am taking about. (never mind, we will discuss this later).

you article has not provided any cost estimates for wartime scenario.. so i will provide you one.

"Full No-Fly Zone" covering all of Libya

- $100 million to $300 million per week

- Initial strike to secure airspace: $500 million and $1 billion

- Six month total: $3.1 billion - $8.8 billion

- Similar to no-fly zone imposed over Iraq (Operation Northern and Southern Watch)

Limited No-Fly Zone focusing on the northern third of Libya

- $30 million to $100 million per week

- Initial strike to secure airspace: $400 million to $800 million

- Six month total $1.18 billion - $3.4 billion

Stand-off No-Fly Zone focusing on costal Libya with only air and naval assets beyond Libyan territory

- $15 million to $25 million per week

- Because this is strictly a stand-off operation with no assets in Libya, CSBA suggests no "initial cost."

- Six month total $0.39 billion - $0.65 billion

- This No-Fly zone would be enforced by three aegis-equipped destroyers.

- These ships, supported by radar monitoring planes (AWACS), and land-based fighter aircraft would intercept violating aircraft from a distance with "over-the-horizon" missiles.

- There is no historical precedent for this sort of no-fly zone.

The group also estimates a 6 month No-Fly Zone could cost as much as $9 Billion. Here's a look at the costs of previous No-Fly Zones:

3 months of air superiority over Serbia cost $2.4 billion

No Fly Zone over Iraq cost $1.3 billion per year

Libya is 6.5 times larger than the No Fly Zone over Iraq.

CSBA (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments) estimates a 6 month No Fly Zone could cost as much as $9 billion.

Libya: The Cost of a No-Fly Zone - FoxNews.com
Libya No-Fly Zone Could Cost Coalition Over $1 Billion If Operation Continues For Months
Libya: U.S. Intervention, No-Fly Zone Against Gadhafi Cost Taxpayers At Least $600 Million - ABC News

considering all the point that i made in this post as well in early post, your 3million dollar for an f-35 per year is a complete Joke.

 

[ace009]

Dude - you miss my point entirely! I don't know if you are slow or just playing dumb.
I am NOT saying the F-35 costs will be $3 million / Yr for maintenance. I looked into YOUR posted website, found the numbers, analyzed them on the fly, just to make a point.
As for your Libya war costs etc, that is the cost of war for flying state of the art aircraft - does not matter if it is the F-35, the Rafale (for which you yourself posted the costs) or Mig-29s. Why don;t you try to look for the costs of flying Su-30s in a war? I am sure if you dig around you will find something on the internet. The point is, there will be humongous costs associated with ANY war with any advanced combat aircraft inventory.
The point under discussion was, Can we or can we not buy the F-35 if it is on offer to India again, and can we or can we not afford it, strategically, tactically and financially. I say, we can.
More later ...

 

[sob]

if MoD can pay for both, then so much the better. It would be like the US, where multiple projects are funded and the best one is continued. However, I am not sure India can afford too many parallel projects going on. especially since the AMCA and the F-35 will be of the same class and pretty much do the same things.

I can't see how can AMCA and F 35 be equated on any one parameter. AMCA is still on the drawing board and DRDO has almost nil experience in developing aircraft despite LCA. OTOH you have LM with decades of experience and with an aircraft which is flying and undergoing developments as we speak.

 

[p2prada]

I can't see how can AMCA and F 35 be equated on any one parameter. AMCA is still on the drawing board and DRDO has almost nil experience in developing aircraft despite LCA. OTOH you have LM with decades of experience and with an aircraft which is flying and undergoing developments as we speak.

Yes. By the time AMCA is operationalized, the F-35 would have seen over 5 years of service and more in IAF(if picked).

It won't be a parallel program. The biggest question is ToT.

 

[ace009]

Yes. By the time AMCA is operationalized, the F-35 would have seen over 5 years of service and more in IAF(if picked).

It won't be a parallel program. The biggest question is ToT.

I agree - but do we need the AMCA if we already buy the F-35, except for as a learning experience for DRDO? I for one would not care to let DRDO "learn" how to build a LO aircraft at the expense of IAF. If they want to learn, they should partner with the Russians for the PAK-FA/ FGFA project and use that knowledge to build a LO version of the LCA (Mk III).

As for ToT, how many times have we bought foreign aircraft and how many times have we received ToT? Even from the Russians? Do we really have the ToT for Mig-29s? Su-30 MKIs? All we have is enough ToT to assemble them here and to service them. No ToT for design, parts manufacturing, upgradation has ever been given to India by Russia. Same for the French (Mirage 2000s), or the UK (Jaguars). The only airplane for which we received reasonable ToT was the Folland Gnat way back in 1960s.
On the other hand, LM had proposed a second production line in India for the F-35, to serve the Asia-Pacific market. If HAL/ ADA partners with them that would be a great learning experience. We may not have all the ToT, but if it trains our engineers, we would not care!
My problem is that many forum members have this two-faced strategy of dealing with US offers vs Russian (or even French) offers. The USA may have blacklisted India after 1998, but if they sell something, they come clean about it. They have to. USA is a democratic country with more accountability than in India and their companies are publicly traded, which makes them accoutable too. The same cannot be said for Russia or it's government controlled monopolies like Rosoboronexport.

 

[utubekhiladi]

Dude - you miss my point entirely! I don't know if you are slow or just playing dumb.

Most people on this forum use those kind of words when they are on the loosing side of the debate. they use words like are you dumb or Do you even read what you are posting... etc etc... lol..

I am NOT saying the F-35 costs will be $3 million / Yr for maintenance.

Here let me quote you again.

The procurement cost is $9.2 Billion. Now maintenance cost for 65 F-35s is projected to be $256-308 million annually. Much of it will be salary of personnel, which is cheaper in India. Say a 5th gen fighter needs 8-9 technicians to maintain, plus two pilots, which means a total of 715 people. Even at a salary + benefits of $80,000 average a year, that comes to $57 million a year in Canada. It should be cheaper in India. Rest of the $200 million is fuel, spares and upgrades which may or may not be the same for India. For each aircraft it comes to about $3 million a year. think that's too much for a 5th gen fighter? So, a lifetime cost of $60 millions per aircraft sounds too much to you?

lets do little math, 308$ / 65 = 4.7 so, it is still around 3 million of what you projected per aircraft.

that is the cost of war for flying state of the art aircraft - does not matter if it is the F-35,

Yes, if it can cost in billions during hot time then i am sure, it will also cost more than 3 million during peace time... thats the reason why i brought the libya war cost estimates.

Can we or can we not buy the F-35 if it is on offer to India again, and can we or can we not afford it, strategically, tactically and financially.

being, 4th largest power in terms of purchasing power we can afford to buy anything we want. but the question is about making the smart choice. (I.e not buying F-35 while looking at the blackmailing history of americans; someday later they will also blackmail you to sign, NTBT's; american tried to get india sign NTBT before...they also wanted to put all our reactors in IAE safeguards. this is a different debate)

More later ...

anytime.................

 

[utubekhiladi]

My problem is that many forum members have this two-faced strategy of dealing with US offers vs Russian (or even French) offers. The USA may have blacklisted India after 1998, but if they sell something, they come clean about it. They have to. USA is a democratic country with more accountability than in India and their companies are publicly traded, which makes them accoutable too. The same cannot be said for Russia or it's government controlled monopolies like Rosoboronexport.

you see, the gringos still need to earn our trust............we can't trust them when they are arming pakistan with all free weapons and pocket money to spend.....

 

[ace009]

you see, the gringos still need to earn our trust............we can't trust them when they are arming pakistan with all free weapons and pocket money to spend.....

And you trust the Russkies who are selling weapons to the Chinese?
Or the French who sold and offered to sell to Pakistan?
2-faced like I said ...

http://asian-defence.blogspot.com/2011/02/russias-renewed-arms-sale-to-china.html

 

[p2prada]

We don't have much as much ToT for aircraft like Mig-21, Mirage-2000, Mig-29, Jaguar and Mig-27. But we have full ToT on the MKI and are expecting a lot on either the Rafale or EF. The fact is once the deal is done, say Rafale, we can build both MKI and Rafale for anybody in the world, after IAF's needs are fulfilled. The only thing that stops us from doing it is IPR. We will be getting ToT right down to the alloys used in the airframe and engine which is unlike what we have received from other ventures in the past.

In case we want to build more MKIs in secret, we can go ahead. Avionics will be an issue though.

The fact is whatever ToT we possess it is not enough to develop an entirely new aircraft using the same technology. And when I say develop I mean start from scratch and not photocopy like the J-11. In that respect, J-10 and J-20 are original products which are much harder to achieve.

What ToT does is helps scientists and engineers to build up on experience at a lesser cost and time and use it on more original designs LCA and J-10 and even further with AMCA and J-20. Other than that it helps air force's operational role as well.

 

[ace009]

Most people on this forum use those kind of words when they are on the loosing side of the debate. they use words like are you dumb or Do you even read what you are posting... etc etc... lol..

Here let me quote you again.


lets do little math, 308$ / 65 = 4.7 so, it is still around 3 million of what you projected per aircraft.

Actually most people make these claims when they are really annoyed by the sheer stupidity of the other guy. Which I am! :-D

As for the math, I took a $270 millions as a median point, then took off $57 million from the $270 million as personnel cost, leaving $213 million, which when divided by 65 gives you something close to $3 million - comprende?

Yes, if it can cost in billions during hot time then i am sure, it will also cost more than 3 million during peace time... thats the reason why i brought the libya war cost estimates.



being, 4th largest power in terms of purchasing power we can afford to buy anything we want. but the question is about making the smart choice. (I.e not buying F-35 while looking at the blackmailing history of americans; someday later they will also blackmail you to sign, NTBT's; american tried to get india sign NTBT before...they also wanted to put all our reactors in IAE safeguards. this is a different debate)

anytime.................

As for the smart choice - let's see - buy an aircraft already developed and undergoing testing for $11 Billion, from one of the oldest and best aircraft manufacturers in the world (LM) or develop your own aircraft, with very little experience, for an indefinite time, with unknown technologies for probably the same cost ....

Hmmmmmm ...



Oh! I think the SMART Choice is to develop your own - right? Right?

Like I said - dumb or what?

 

[ace009]

We don't have much as much ToT for aircraft like Mig-21, Mirage-2000, Mig-29, Jaguar and Mig-27. But we have full ToT on the MKI and are expecting a lot on either the Rafale or EF. The fact is once the deal is done, say Rafale, we can build both MKI and Rafale for anybody in the world, after IAF's needs are fulfilled. The only thing that stops us from doing it is IPR. We will be getting ToT right down to the alloys used in the airframe and engine which is unlike what we have received from other ventures in the past.

In case we want to build more MKIs in secret, we can go ahead. Avionics will be an issue though.

The fact is whatever ToT we possess it is not enough to develop an entirely new aircraft using the same technology. And when I say develop I mean start from scratch and not photocopy like the J-11. In that respect, J-10 and J-20 are original products which are much harder to achieve.

What ToT does is helps scientists and engineers to build up on experience at a lesser cost and time and use it on more original designs LCA and J-10 and even further with AMCA and J-20. Other than that it helps air force's operational role as well.

About the MKI, I am not sure if we have all the ToT, because in some other entry on this forum there was a long discussion about that. About the Rafale, we'll see what happens with the deal!

Amen to the rest!

 

[tarunraju]

No thank you. India shouldn't bite the F-35 bait. It will come with so many restrictions and potential killswitches that it would effectively become a 12 billion Dollar lease, rather than a sale.

By pitching F-35, while it appears that US is desperate to sell its fighters to India, the real agenda appears to be to bring India under its net of 'not-so-close allies'. US can then use that leverage to even change the course of conflicts in which F-35 is used in (by messing with its spares, supplies, or even core functionality).

 

[p2prada]

About the MKI, I am not sure if we have all the ToT, because in some other entry on this forum there was a long discussion about that. About the Rafale, we'll see what happens with the deal!

We are building the engine from raw materials. Nothing is being sourced from Russia for engines. Some parts of the airframe and parts of the radar are being sourced from Russia only because IAF wants the jets 4 years quicker than first planned. Originally the entire aircraft was supposed to be 100% made in India, including radar and engine.

 

[utubekhiladi]

As for the math, I took a $270 millions as a median point, then took off $57 million from the $270 million as personnel cost, leaving $213 million, which when divided by 65 gives you something close to $3 million - comprende?

but the question; is your calculation realistic? even i can do some maths and can bring the cost close to 30k only... LOL. i think you are the only person in the world who is concerned about personnel cost and pilots salary when estimating the price of an aircraft.

Oh! I think the SMART Choice is to develop your own - right? Right?

Of-course, developing AMCA is a smart choice when we will be having FGFA to meet stealth challenges in the other hand.. experience gained from su30mki, Tejas and FGFA in future will be really useful to develop AMCA. we cannot be dependent on foreign tech for all the eternity.

Like I said - dumb or what?

How/who can you judges other by the choices they can make? anyways, i will really be more than happy to be a Biggest DUMB the world has ever seen by not selecting F-35 you all wise people in the world can buy F-35 by hugging and kissing uncle sam and obey whatever he dictates thereafter or risk losing spares and supplies.

 

[utubekhiladi]

Check list if you want to buy F-35(or any fighter for that matter).. strictly answer in either yes or no only. then see yourself where you answered YES and where you answered NO

1) Do you expect cost escalation?
2) Will they offer TOT for crucial technologies ?
3) Can they plane get FOC before 2015?
4) Is America a reliable supplier like France, Israel Russia. ?
5) Will we see delivery of first plane by at least 2025?
6) Can we setup full production line in India?
7) Can we equip fighter with missiles and weapons of our choice (like Astra BVR)
8) Will it help Indian defense Industry?
9) Will it pave the way for future development in India?
10) Is this a joint venture?
11) Partnership expected?
12) Does the aircraft have an edge over adversaries?
13) Can Pakistan get this aircraft?
14) Can the supplier change the course of conflicts in which fighter is used in (by messing with its spares, supplies, or even core functionality).?
15) Can the supplier use this aircraft to blackmail and force you to sign NTBT, CISMOA, Logistic support etc etc?
16) will it come with many restrictions and potential killswitches?
17) Can they invest 40-50% of the funds back in India?
18) Will you be able to use this aircraft anywhere you like and the way you wanted?
19) Combat operational freedom expected?
20) Will you be needing manufacturers blessing to use this aircraft across LOC?
21) Uninterrupted supply of spares, service and maintenance expected during war and peace time?
22) Can you modify this aircraft?

the checklist is endless but i will stop it here.

 

[ace009]

Salary of personnel is NOT important? Where do you live? In India maybe not, but in the west, that is one of the biggest costs dude ... You know in a defense project one of the biggest costs? Manpower - ever heard that word?

Try this out ...

http://csis.org/files/publication/101110_FY2011_Coming_Challenges_Def.pdf

Check list if you want to buy F-35(or any fighter for that matter).. strictly answer in either yes or no only. then see yourself where you answered YES and where you answered NO

1) Do you expect cost escalation? - Yes
2) Will they offer TOT for crucial technologies ? - Yes
3) Can they plane get FOC before 2015? - Yes
4) Is America a reliable supplier like France, Israel Russia. ? - Yes
5) Will we see delivery of first plane by at least 2025? - Yes
6) Can we setup full production line in India? - Maybe
7) Can we equip fighter with missiles and weapons of our choice (like Astra BVR) - Maybe
8) Will it help Indian defense Industry? - Yes
9) Will it pave the way for future development in India? - Yes
10) Is this a joint venture? - Maybe
11) Partnership expected? - Yes
12) Does the aircraft have an edge over adversaries? - Yes!!!
13) Can Pakistan get this aircraft? - No
14) Can the supplier change the course of conflicts in which fighter is used in (by messing with its spares, supplies, or even core functionality).?- No
15) Can the supplier use this aircraft to blackmail and force you to sign NTBT, CISMOA, Logistic support etc etc? - No
16) will it come with many restrictions and potential killswitches? - No
17) Can they invest 40-50% of the funds back in India? - Yes
18) Will you be able to use this aircraft anywhere you like and the way you wanted? - Yes
19) Combat operational freedom expected? - Yes
20) Will you be needing manufacturers blessing to use this aircraft across LOC? - No
21) Uninterrupted supply of spares, service and maintenance expected during war and peace time? - Yes
22) Can you modify this aircraft? - Maybe

the checklist is endless but i will stop it here.

and your point is?

 

[utubekhiladi]

Salary of personnel is NOT important? Where do you live? In India maybe not, but in the west, that is one of the biggest costs dude ... You know in a defense project one of the biggest costs? Manpower - ever heard that word?

...and your point is?

of-course , salary is important but that is considered only when calculating/estimating annual defense budget of a particular country, not when you are negotiating the price of high-tech fighter jet which is expected to cost around 200-250 mil per plane.

(sarcasm only)
USA: YO! We are offering you F-35
IAF : what's the unit price YO!!
USA: YO Can get f-35 around 250 mil per plane
IAF: YO, can you give me for 200mil?
USA : ehhh, Okay, 200 mil each only for you
IAF : YO, what about salary for my pilots????
USA :

any my point nothing. i just wanted to see other peoples opinion.. however i don't agree with your answers on most of the items in the checklist.

 

[ace009]

WTF are you talking about here? Price of the planes? Which price? Unit purchase cost or unit lifetime cost? The talk was about LIFETIME costs. NOT initial purchase price. Or have you forgotten that conveniently? Check the original post from which this started.
The Canadian F-35 costs - initial purchase price was ~$8 Billion for 65 fighters. LIFETIME Costs for the next 20 years was 250-300 million per year, taking it to >$60 Billion. Lifetime costs take into account ALL expenses, including fuel costs, spares, upgrades AND manpower, which trust me is NOT a line item.
Anyway, I am just tired of this discussion - I might as well go out and talk to the fire hydrant! It will make more sense and seem less crazy!

 

[pack leader]

you fail to understand it's 300 mil yearly for the entire fleet
this is also too much but Canadian climate is bad for jet engine