Lockheed Martin to offer F-35 to India ?

nongaddarliberal

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Considering that PAK FA is without a doubt qualitatively better than J 20, why would we need F 35? We already have a fifth generation option, with Russia being ready to provide far more technology transfer than LM ever would.
 

asianobserve

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Considering that PAK FA is without a doubt qualitatively better than J 20, why would we need F 35? We already have a fifth generation option, with Russia being ready to provide far more technology transfer than LM ever would.

But Russia still has a lot to do with PAKFA before it can be truly considered 5th gen or even reliable. We have not even seen a working enclosed weapons bay.
 

nongaddarliberal

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But Russia still has a lot to do with PAKFA before it can be truly considered 5th gen or even reliable. We have not even seen a working enclosed weapons bay.
Frankly I dont see any other option for India. Cancelling PAK FA (which is a precondition for F 35 by the US govt) and buying F 35 would severely damage Indo Russian ties, which India simply cant afford at the moment. Another precondition is that India will have to first order F 16's before F 35's are cleared for sale. Frankly the whole situation is a mess. Even if PAK FA comes later, its better for Indian interests.
 

Immanuel

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Lol Ajai Shukla back on LM's gravy train, has spent the last decade pushing for the F-16 for India but just as LM's strategy has changed so has his views, now it's time for IAF to look at F35?


126 F-35s, what a joke! The absurd cost of these fighters all in (weapons, training,hangers, etc) being >$30b is the LEAST of the problems with this ridiculous narrative. The fact that India would have to fundamentally alter its entire strategic outlook AND the US and India would have to materially change the nature of their relationship which would take DECADES. Today the US won't even play ball with India on "low hanging fruit", expecting them to embrace India with open arms to get the F-35 sold without India having to entirely reform its entire strategic landscape is absurd- is there any sign this will happen? Any real expectation the babus on BOTH sides won't ensure this is a generational effort (if it was ever commenced)?


FGFA, AMCA and F35- why not add J-20 to the list?

F-35 is being used as a sweetner for F-16 offer to India and NOTHING else, LM saying to India it must get F-16 first but there will be no assurances F-35 will actually be cleared for sale to India let alone to be made in India (which would have to happen with such volumes), LM doesn't have that authority.
Well if the news is true and IAF did express interest in the F-35A for the imported SEF program, this desire to have a look at the F-35A instead of F-16V or Gripen E is more than understandable. It is madness to not consider the F-35 if one is looking at an imported SEF.

Sure, LM would love to continue to suckle on the F-16 titty but would it risk loosing a potentially gargantuan order of 126 F-35A which could lead to another 57 for IN and more eventually when IN's IAC-2 and follow-ons are ready? Having India as a F-16 user adds little value to LM or US but if India were to be convinced of the F-35 and orders 126 for IAF with options for more in the future, this would drastically reduce the risk of the F-35 program, propel India to the second largest operator status, allow for local assembly as well as become contributors to the global supply chain and build confidence among other friendly nations and existing F-16 users like Singapore, Oman, Thailand, Indonesia etc. If India was to buy the F-35 it would certainly be in signifcant numbers, would be perhaps the only user outside the US to operate all 3 variants and would have a local version much like the Israelis (since we won't sign the CISMOA, we'd end up with F-35s with local IFFs, satcoms, datalinks, comms). The assembly line in India would partly assemble aircraft for other Asian and Middle Eastern customers and would certainly be the regional F-35 hub for MRO, supply chain etc. Such an order would also drive down the flyaway as well running cost for future operators. Keep in mind some day all F-16s in Asia and Middle East will need replacing and the F-35 would be a natural choice for them. Indian assembled F-35s could be operating in Egypt, Oman, Morroco, Iraq, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philipines, Singapore etc.

Last we checked the 127 FGFA deal wasn't going too well hence also could be why IAF is looking at 126 F-35A. Flyaway cost of the F-35 has been dropping. There is nothing to suggest that strategic outlook of Indo-US relations hasn't already matured to a significant level. Today we have 12 P-8I with another 12-15 or more to be ordered in the near future, 10 C-17s, 12 C-130Js. 22 Apaches with potentially (39 more for IA's AAC) and 15 Chinooks set for delivery, 145 M777 howitzers with potentially hundreds more under MII. 22 Sea Guardian UAVS are available for sale for IN. 80-100 Avenger UCAVs are being considered for IAF, sale is not cleared yet. 100+ S-70 or MH-60 for Naval Medium helo contest, keep in mind the S-70 was the better chopper last time around including in trials.

Unless you have been living under a rock, India already takes parts in more joint training, excercises and martime exchanges with the US than with any other country. The number of exchanges continues to rise every year.

With the US it is atleast clear what we get and they mostly stick to the contract and after sales is good. While folks from Russia, France claim a lot of non sense about full tot etc but when it comes to implementation we face significant issues (check failed MMRCA process, Scorpene TOT issues and significant cost increases, MKI and T-90 TOT issues), the failure to get MTA project going, seems like the PAKFA/FGFA is heading the same way, the list goes on and on.

http://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/belgium-f-35-joint-strike-fighter-aircraft

The Government of Belgium has requested to buy thirty-four (34) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Conventional Take Off and Landing (CTOL) aircraft, and thirty-eight (38) Pratt & Whitney F-135 engines (34 installed, 4 spares). Also included are Electronic Warfare Systems; Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence/Communications, Navigational, and Identification (C4I/CNI); Autonomic Logistics Global Support System (ALGS); Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS); Full Mission Trainer; Weapons Employment Capability, and other Subsystems, Features, and Capabilities; F-35 unique infrared flares; Reprogramming center; F-35 Performance Based Logistics; software development/integration; aircraft ferry and tanker support; support equipment; tools and test equipment; communications equipment; spares and repair parts; personnel training and training equipment; publications and technical documents; U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services; and other related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated total case value is $6.53 billion or just over $190 mil per bird

The Belgian deal is valued at $6.53 billion including all of the above. An Indian deal would have lower costs due to bigger order numbers, some TOT and local assembly. I think we'd end up paying around $25-27Billion. Not bad especially if FGFA deal is cancelled, the FGFA was valued at the same cost.
 

Immanuel

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Buying the F-35 doesn't have to affect Russian relations, we have S-400, T-90MS upgardes, Brahmos, KA-226, Mi-17s etc. Plenty of orders. Failure of India to acquire the FGFA can't be put squarely on India, Russia since the start has been diffcult on TOT and others for PAKFA.

Actually this whole F-35 for India is good litmus test for Indo-US relations, let's see how it goes. I am guessing it will be positive.
 

Butter Chicken

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India is refusing to sign the "foundational agreements" except LEMOA(and rightly so),US is used to dealing with poodle nations like UK and is confused at how to deal with a strong and autonomous nation like India.It will be several years before F-35 can even be discussed formally
 

Immanuel

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India is refusing to sign the "foundational agreements" except LEMOA(and rightly so),US is used to dealing with poodle nations like UK and is confused at how to deal with a strong and autonomous nation like India.It will be several years before F-35 can even be discussed formally
Those foundational agreements have little impact on how sales are conducted, you should look up current order books for US platforms, growing everyday. Don't be surprised if by 2020/21, India has signed up on the F-35 program. While I agree such large complex deals take time to negotiate, do note it is not the first time that India has discussed the F-35.
 

abingdonboy

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Well if the news is true and IAF did express interest in the F-35A for the imported SEF program, this desire to have a look at the F-35A instead of F-16V or Gripen E is more than understandable. It is madness to not consider the F-35 if one is looking at an imported SEF.

Sure, LM would love to continue to suckle on the F-16 titty but would it risk loosing a potentially gargantuan order of 126 F-35A which could lead to another 57 for IN and more eventually when IN's IAC-2 and follow-ons are ready? Having India as a F-16 user adds little value to LM or US but if India were to be convinced of the F-35 and orders 126 for IAF with options for more in the future, this would drastically reduce the risk of the F-35 program, propel India to the second largest operator status, allow for local assembly as well as become contributors to the global supply chain and build confidence among other friendly nations and existing F-16 users like Singapore, Oman, Thailand, Indonesia etc. If India was to buy the F-35 it would certainly be in signifcant numbers, would be perhaps the only user outside the US to operate all 3 variants and would have a local version much like the Israelis (since we won't sign the CISMOA, we'd end up with F-35s with local IFFs, satcoms, datalinks, comms). The assembly line in India would partly assemble aircraft for other Asian and Middle Eastern customers and would certainly be the regional F-35 hub for MRO, supply chain etc. Such an order would also drive down the flyaway as well running cost for future operators. Keep in mind some day all F-16s in Asia and Middle East will need replacing and the F-35 would be a natural choice for them. Indian assembled F-35s could be operating in Egypt, Oman, Morroco, Iraq, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philipines, Singapore etc.

Last we checked the 127 FGFA deal wasn't going too well hence also could be why IAF is looking at 126 F-35A. Flyaway cost of the F-35 has been dropping. There is nothing to suggest that strategic outlook of Indo-US relations hasn't already matured to a significant level. Today we have 12 P-8I with another 12-15 or more to be ordered in the near future, 10 C-17s, 12 C-130Js. 22 Apaches with potentially (39 more for IA's AAC) and 15 Chinooks set for delivery, 145 M777 howitzers with potentially hundreds more under MII. 22 Sea Guardian UAVS are available for sale for IN. 80-100 Avenger UCAVs are being considered for IAF, sale is not cleared yet. 100+ S-70 or MH-60 for Naval Medium helo contest, keep in mind the S-70 was the better chopper last time around including in trials.

Unless you have been living under a rock, India already takes parts in more joint training, excercises and martime exchanges with the US than with any other country. The number of exchanges continues to rise every year.

With the US it is atleast clear what we get and they mostly stick to the contract and after sales is good. While folks from Russia, France claim a lot of non sense about full tot etc but when it comes to implementation we face significant issues (check failed MMRCA process, Scorpene TOT issues and significant cost increases, MKI and T-90 TOT issues), the failure to get MTA project going, seems like the PAKFA/FGFA is heading the same way, the list goes on and on.

http://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/belgium-f-35-joint-strike-fighter-aircraft

The Government of Belgium has requested to buy thirty-four (34) F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Conventional Take Off and Landing (CTOL) aircraft, and thirty-eight (38) Pratt & Whitney F-135 engines (34 installed, 4 spares). Also included are Electronic Warfare Systems; Command, Control, Communications, Computer and Intelligence/Communications, Navigational, and Identification (C4I/CNI); Autonomic Logistics Global Support System (ALGS); Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS); Full Mission Trainer; Weapons Employment Capability, and other Subsystems, Features, and Capabilities; F-35 unique infrared flares; Reprogramming center; F-35 Performance Based Logistics; software development/integration; aircraft ferry and tanker support; support equipment; tools and test equipment; communications equipment; spares and repair parts; personnel training and training equipment; publications and technical documents; U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services; and other related elements of logistics and program support. The estimated total case value is $6.53 billion or just over $190 mil per bird

The Belgian deal is valued at $6.53 billion including all of the above. An Indian deal would have lower costs due to bigger order numbers, some TOT and local assembly. I think we'd end up paying around $25-27Billion. Not bad especially if FGFA deal is cancelled, the FGFA was valued at the same cost.
This is beyond fantasy bro! 200 F35s would be >$50b with all extras included.


Rafale and MKI (to an extent) will keep IAF in the game until AMCA is ready, maybe a few SQNs if PAK FA will come off the shelf just to provide an extra layer of cover but F35 is not even on be table, anyone that seriously considers this an option is delusional.

India is NOT a NATO member, it is not a major non-NATO ally declared by US. CISMOA and BECA are just the START of the agreements the US would insist India agree to before F35 contracts are signed, this process alone would take 6-7 years if commenced today.


India and US have been talking for the better part of 5 years about the Guardian UAVs and still no deal, how long do you think it would take to negotiate for frontline combat stealth jets with all requisite customisations and technical details agreed upon? We are talking generations.


The notion that India, a nation that still has certain sanctions placed on it at the USG level would be granted a assembly line for F35 in India is beyond absurd, this isn’t being offered to even formal treaty allies of the US and India isn’t even a member of the F35 project, I’m sure a number of Tier 1 partners like the UK would oppose any such inclusion anyway.


Cannot get over how ridiculous this all is, how can shukla think he can get away with this crap? How many knuckleheads are there what will actually take this seriously?
 

abingdonboy

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Those foundational agreements have little impact on how sales are conducted, you should look up current order books for US platforms, growing everyday. Don't be surprised if by 2020/21, India has signed up on the F-35 program. While I agree such large complex deals take time to negotiate, do note it is not the first time that India has discussed the F-35.
Briefings and actual deals are two very different things. Such a mammoth and strategically significant deal such as this would have to go through every layer of Scrutinisation, face the babudom and survive multiple changes in govt.

Still can’t see how this deal could advance purely from a procedural level, the IAF would have to actually issue an RFI for a stealth SEF for which only thhe Americans would be able to respond, then what? We all know single vendor deals do not progress and DPP-2016 makes this even harder.

And signing up to F35 project so late in the game with all the development already done would be a joke. All the costs with no associated benefits.

Best car scenario the F35 can come around 2032-5 ie right around the time AMCA will be ready.

BEST option India has is to pour everything it can into AMCA and tie up with the French where needed (engine, EW, sensor fusion etc). F35 would be a blunder of epic proportions for India that would hurt it for decades to come.
 

abingdonboy

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F35 deal faces enormous headwinds and practically no inherent advantages. In every way it has the deck stacked against it- procedural, strategic considerations, political and financial.

No way can Modi, IAF or MOD simply say “I want F35” and make it happen, the system doesn’t work like that and the practicalities of this just don’t make it so.


Either the deal is never persued or it comes SO late and SO costly that it is as good as useless.

This is a fishing competition by LM, now F16 is clearly not favoured by India they are trying to get India hooked somehow.

First let’s see the USG actually clear the F35 to be sold to India then we can speculate....
 

abingdonboy

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Is the IAF not allowed to dream? :biggrin2:
No not really. Their job is not to dream but to protect India’s national interests, F35 doesn’t meet this criteria.


Seriously dubious that any IAF official has actually spoken to Shukla about this.

Btw IAF have been dreaming abler FGFA for how long now? FGFA deal will look EASY compared to F35 deal. Take fgfa timelines and add 15-20 years on top to get an idea how drawn out this may be
 

abingdonboy

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View attachment 23218 Hey ... why not jump directly to the next level and ask info about future US Navy F/A XX

:basanti::wink:
Haven’t even been cleared to look at F35 yet sir! Ignore all this fanboy/presstitute nonsense.

Btw if France (and India) are smart France will offer to make the AMCA France’s next gen fighter or vice Versa. France is perhaps in the best possible position of the leading aerospace nations (Russia, France and US) in terms of the Indian market; US is a no go, Russian deals are in decline and cynicism is building towards their ability to deliver in India whereas strategic ties between India and France are on the upswing.


France and India cannot afford to let the momentum building up go to waste
 

Immanuel

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This is beyond fantasy bro! 200 F35s would be >$50b with all extras included.


Rafale and MKI (to an extent) will keep IAF in the game until AMCA is ready, maybe a few SQNs if PAK FA will come off the shelf just to provide an extra layer of cover but F35 is not even on be table, anyone that seriously considers this an option is delusional.

India is NOT a NATO member, it is not a major non-NATO ally declared by US. CISMOA and BECA are just the START of the agreements the US would insist India agree to before F35 contracts are signed, this process alone would take 6-7 years if commenced today.


India and US have been talking for the better part of 5 years about the Guardian UAVs and still no deal, how long do you think it would take to negotiate for frontline combat stealth jets with all requisite customisations and technical details agreed upon? We are talking generations.


The notion that India, a nation that still has certain sanctions placed on it at the USG level would be granted a assembly line for F35 in India is beyond absurd, this isn’t being offered to even formal treaty allies of the US and India isn’t even a member of the F35 project, I’m sure a number of Tier 1 partners like the UK would oppose any such inclusion anyway.


Cannot get over how ridiculous this all is, how can shukla think he can get away with this crap? How many knuckleheads are there what will actually take this seriously?
Buying 126 F-35A should be well under $27 Billion, sure adding more will cost more but so would it for another other fighter including Rafale which is priced roughly the same. PAKFA is virtually dead till I hear official confirmation of more news. Rafale is still stuck at 36. MKI is fine. AMCA is at best for beyond 2030. Sure Shukla might be peddling hypotheticals but if IAF did request more information on the F-35, it shows it is interested. F-35A on any given day is a better choice than both the Gripen E and F-16 for the Imported SEF.

CISMOA and BECA haven't been insisted (have been asked politely but we have rejected politely as well) on any of the deals so far. Armed Guardians were only officially requested in 2015, unofficial chit chat has no bearing on results.

If the order size is big enough, Tier-1 suppliers like UK will be politely asked to suck on it. When other buyers like Japan can have local assembly, India with a significantly much larger order can at least have the same. Currently Final assembly also happens in Japan which is not an original program partner. Note, I didn't mention too much TOT, we might get some basic stuff like nuts and bolts and piss receptacles, at least we'll been safe in the knowledge that the pilot can piss in a receptacle made in India. This is roughly the same level of TOT being peddled for PAKFA as well.

There is nothing delusional about the IAF being interested in the F-35A. As for broader Indo-US relations, the growing number of orders only proves that these delusions exist in peoples' minds rather in the services who are confident of a future partnership with the US.

That said, I repeat, a proposed F-35 deal would be a litmus test for Indo-Us relations and I believe it will be positive. Let's see.
 

Immanuel

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Briefings and actual deals are two very different things. Such a mammoth and strategically significant deal such as this would have to go through every layer of Scrutinisation, face the babudom and survive multiple changes in govt.

Still can’t see how this deal could advance purely from a procedural level, the IAF would have to actually issue an RFI for a stealth SEF for which only thhe Americans would be able to respond, then what? We all know single vendor deals do not progress and DPP-2016 makes this even harder.

And signing up to F35 project so late in the game with all the development already done would be a joke. All the costs with no associated benefits.

Best car scenario the F35 can come around 2032-5 ie right around the time AMCA will be ready.

BEST option India has is to pour everything it can into AMCA and tie up with the French where needed (engine, EW, sensor fusion etc). F35 would be a blunder of epic proportions for India that would hurt it for decades to come.
What RFI did the G2G Rafale deal have? Since MMRCA as a process was was dead. A G2G is always possible. What is the problem of buying an imported SEF if IAF really wants one for deliveries staring around 2023-24 for a block 4, F-35 with all the new upgraded sensors and engine? What benefits do we get from the additional costs of development for the Indian spec. Rafale? All the work will be done in French cow country while we pay, same applies for the F-35.

Continuing to buy more 4.5 gen aircraft in 5th gen timelines worse blunders that will hurt IAF for decades. AMCA should be considered a near 6th gen MKI replacement at best and it would be great if it is ready for production by 2030-35 when the earliest MKIs will start showing their age.
 

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Russia is a declining power. All they hav is oil .Their aviation technology is no longer comparable to western technology. Russia will become client state of china in future.
During cold war era we hav no other options other than Soviets. Now we hav many options. If F35 is really available it is wise to spend money in f35 than rafales.
 

nongaddarliberal

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If we can somehow get a deal to buy F 35 instead of F 16, rather than after F 16, and manage to save FGFA possibility for later, then F 35 is the best choice. There is no other 5th gen fighter that is already ready for induction. It is the quickest and decently cost effective 5th gen solution to the J20 and J31 problem, and is a massive force multiplier against J11's and su 35 already in PLAAF. And if we induct F 35's before the Chinese have actually gotten rid of all the problems in their J 20 (maybe by 2030), then we will have significant technological advantage for some years. If this gets through, then chinese numerical advantage will mean nothing in one fell swoop.

And please reverse engineer the crap out of it. Disassemble the thing and analyse every single system and material on it. And transfer this new knowledge on to AMCA.
 

abingdonboy

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Buying 126 F-35A should be well under $27 Billion, sure adding more will cost more but so would it for another other fighter including Rafale which is priced roughly the same. PAKFA is virtually dead till I hear official confirmation of more news. Rafale is still stuck at 36. MKI is fine. AMCA is at best for beyond 2030. Sure Shukla might be peddling hypotheticals but if IAF did request more information on the F-35, it shows it is interested. F-35A on any given day is a better choice than both the Gripen E and F-16 for the Imported SEF.

CISMOA and BECA haven't been insisted (have been asked politely but we have rejected politely as well) on any of the deals so far. Armed Guardians were only officially requested in 2015, unofficial chit chat has no bearing on results.

If the order size is big enough, Tier-1 suppliers like UK will be politely asked to suck on it. When other buyers like Japan can have local assembly, India with a significantly much larger order can at least have the same. Currently Final assembly also happens in Japan which is not an original program partner. Note, I didn't mention too much TOT, we might get some basic stuff like nuts and bolts and piss receptacles, at least we'll been safe in the knowledge that the pilot can piss in a receptacle made in India. This is roughly the same level of TOT being peddled for PAKFA as well.

There is nothing delusional about the IAF being interested in the F-35A. As for broader Indo-US relations, the growing number of orders only proves that these delusions exist in peoples' minds rather in the services who are confident of a future partnership with the US.

That said, I repeat, a proposed F-35 deal would be a litmus test for Indo-Us relations and I believe it will be positive. Let's see.
126 F-35 With weapons, customisations, training, bases and local assembly is easily >$50bn.

Rafale numbers are going to be >100 for sure

Without CISMOA, BECA and dozens of other bilateral agreements F35 will never be sold to India. If India rejects this then it won’t be granted access, the US ripped out a lot of gear from the c130 and C17s, the f35 as a next gen fighter aircraft is FAR more advanced with much more complex gear that won’t be transferred to India without such agreements.

The sales of C-17, p8, apache etc are all in a different category to the f35. F35 is a strategic asset and a massive amount of work will have to go on to get them cleared by both sides.

Final assembly of the US’s frontline stealth aircraft in a nation that’s not a NATO or treaty ally with US is crazy talk.


2023 timelines are crazy, it will take over a decade to even come to an agreement on the deal if started today. There isn’t even a requirement for this aircraft yet so at best talks begin in 2021.
 

abingdonboy

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What RFI did the G2G Rafale deal have? Since MMRCA as a process was was dead. A G2G is always possible. What is the problem of buying an imported SEF if IAF really wants one for deliveries staring around 2023-24 for a block 4, F-35 with all the new upgraded sensors and engine? What benefits do we get from the additional costs of development for the Indian spec. Rafale? All the work will be done in French cow country while we pay, same applies for the F-35.

Continuing to buy more 4.5 gen aircraft in 5th gen timelines worse blunders that will hurt IAF for decades. AMCA should be considered a near 6th gen MKI replacement at best and it would be great if it is ready for production by 2030-35 when the earliest MKIs will start showing their age.
There was no need for RFI for Rafale as MMRCA had already emulated and selected it based on comparative evaluations.

F35 would have to be assessed against other platforms in an open tender, can’t just buy 126 f35 off the shelf with not price discovery of comparative analysis.
 

abingdonboy

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If we can somehow get a deal to buy F 35 instead of F 16, rather than after F 16, and manage to save FGFA possibility for later, then F 35 is the best choice. There is no other 5th gen fighter that is already ready for induction. It is the quickest and decently cost effective 5th gen solution to the J20 and J31 problem, and is a massive force multiplier against J11's and su 35 already in PLAAF. And if we induct F 35's before the Chinese have actually gotten rid of all the problems in their J 20 (maybe by 2030), then we will have significant technological advantage for some years. If this gets through, then chinese numerical advantage will mean nothing in one fell swoop.

And please reverse engineer the crap out of it. Disassemble the thing and analyse every single system and material on it. And transfer this new knowledge on to AMCA.
This analysis is so short term in nature.

A paper advantage over PLAAF for maybe half a decade means what? So a 5th gen fighter can only be countered by another 5th gen fighter? Why isn’t there a scramble to induct 5th gen jets? Why are F35 orders being cut? Why is Russia stalling PAK FA development?


Besides Chinese have blue prints of the F35 that they stole years ago, these lessons will be built into their platforms in the future.

And we all know F35 is only being floated by LM to sweeten the pot for F16, there is ZERO offer of f35, it is a fiction created by certain people in the media.

Not only will India not be allowed to reverse engineer the f35 but doing so would harm India’s image and access to high tech in the future. This isn’t a credible Solution
 

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