LK Advani's comments on Karnataka: What really the 'reality' is?

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Amar Acharya, May 15, 2013.

  1. Amar Acharya

    Amar Acharya New Member

    May 15, 2013
    Likes Received:
    Bangalore, India, India
    Just read LK Advani's post in his blog on which he suggested that Karnataka elections had lessons for both the BJP and the Congress.

    He says that it was Common man's anger that pushed the BJP out of Karnataka.. and the common man can not be taken for granted.

    Is the Karnataka verdict really so?

    No, it isn't.. keeping aside the urban people for whom corruption becomes an issue, there aren't really much crowd in India who vote on moral character of the people. Though, many didn't agree with Justice Katju's remarks when he said 90 percent of the Indians vote like cattle , there is now a solid reason for many to believe him, The Karnataka elections.

    Some people say that the primary reason for BJP's loss in Karnataka was Corruption. No, it wasn't. If it had been, vote percentage of the congress and other's would have increased.

    The vote percentage:

    A concept that is ignored by many but is actually the decisive point in telling if really the political fortunes have changed.

    BJP lost about 13 percent of total votes in the 2013 elections, compared to what it got in 2008. 13 percent is nearly equal to the combined vote share of KJP and BSRC (9.84 and 2.69 percent respectively). The 'undivided BJP' hasn't actually lost the vote share in anyway.

    (KJP is former BJP CM Yeddyurappa's party)

    Now coming to congress, it gained just 1.8 percent of vote share, despite working hard for it 5 years.

    Congress's increase of 2 percent votes share, alongwith BJP's loss of 13 percent, made it bank 121 seats in the assembly. In Hyderabad-Karnataka and Mumbai-Karnataka, BJP dropped down from 53 seats to a mere 18. But, the vote percentage in both the regions have actually increased, if taken of 'Undivided' BJP. This tells that the social preferences and other factors have not really changed over 5 years, despite corruption scams coming in public light against the BJP.

    The only change that took place in voter shift is in Coastal Karnataka and Old Mysore, where the combined share of BJP, KJP, and BSRC don't add up to the 2008 share.

    JD(S) also just improved its vote percentage by 1.15 percent, so not a big shift here too.

    The Karnataka verdict was actually a different scene, BJP lost its ground because of division, not because of Congress's ground work, neither because of Corruption charges. If the BJP had been undivided, the Congress would have still managed to get a lead in seats, but not so much big. Possibly, it would have been in 90s and BJP in 80s.

    So what does Advani's post indicate?

    There could be two reasons for Advani's such post:

    He is being sidelined in the party considering Modi's rise. There are voices in the party to declare Modi the probable PM candidate. Advani's dream of being the PM has been subsequently sidelined by the party.. and may be it isn't all well working for him. He could just be trying to get back his lost ground in the party by his 'expert views'.. may be.. ;)
    The other reason might be, though a very foolish one, he is doing this to showcase a good image in public.. showcasing that he recognizes public anger against corruption.. God knows if these things would work in his and BJP's favour.
    parijataka likes this.
  3. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

    May 4, 2009
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    New Delhi
    Firstpost brilliantly compared BJP leaders to a group of blind men who are attempting to describe an elephant by touch.

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