Terror's double game
Shashi Shekhar
As the UPA Government embarks upon yet another misadventure to reduce India's 'trust deficit' with Pakistan, it would be
useful to take note of the changing terrorscape following recent subtle though significant shifts in Islamabad's cross-border jihad policy which have profound implications
Multiple signals are emerging from the jihadi landscape in South Asia in the aftermath of a Mumbai court delivering its verdict in the November 26 attacks on Mumbai. These signals also come as India prepares to affect a shift in its Pakistan policy through what it calls an "exploratory mode".
While the first four of these signals have been well reported and analysed quite extensively the last has received very little attention in India. As Home Minister P Chidambaram prepares to visit Pakistan it is imperative that these signals are paid attention to closely.
The first signal is the apparent splintering of jihadist groups inside Pakistan that manifested in the killing of a former ISI official with known jihadi sympathies Khaled Khawaja by a group known as the Asian Tigers. While Khaled Khawaja was killed back in early May, the fate of two others kidnapped by the Asian Tigers remains unknown. One of the hostages is a Colonel Tarar, also popularly known as Colonel Imam, who claims to have fathered the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The splintering within the jihadi outfits inside Pakistan has also spurred a low key factional war of targeted sectarian killings in the city of Karachi in recent weeks. These targeted sectarian killings follow an earlier sectarian attack in Lahore on two mosques of the Ahmediya sect.
This string of sectarian jihadi attacks manifests in a second signal of political conflict within the Pakistani establishment with the ruling PPP taking on the PML(N) in Punjab for its overt and covert sympathies to jihadi outfits. While a Minister in the provincial Punjab Government has been accused of overt sympathies to an anti-Shia extremist outfit, evidence has also surfaced of the Punjab Government funding the Jamaat-ud-Dawa'h.
While the JuD continues to host anti-India political rallies in Pakistan,
a third trend has emerged in recent weeks. It is the increased international focus on the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba and the jihadist sympathies of sections within Pakistan's establishment. This trend started with a
paper by Stephen Tankel on how the Lashkar had evolved into a gateway for jihadis facilitating funds and logistics. In recent times,
The New York Times and other international publications have published extensive narratives on how the LeT has been working at the behest of Pakistani agencies to hurt Indian interests in Afghanistan.
The Associated Press, too, carried a narrative of a retired Pakistan Major and his continued jihadist sympathies. This increased international focus was further magnified in a
paper by Matt Waldman of the London School of Economics on how Pakistan continues to sponsor the Afghan Taliban. Most
recently the RAND publication has a report cautioning the US Government over continued aid to Pakistan.
This increased international focus on continued jihadi sympathies within the Pakistani establishment comes in the aftermath of the failed attempt to set off a bomb in New York City by Pakistani American Faisal Shahzad. Shahzad who pledged guilty in a US court earlier this week went on record to admit that he was trained in bomb making by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. He also
revealed he spent 40 days with the TTP while he spent five days in actual training. He also revealed receiving US $4,900 in cash to fund his failed attack. The court documents, however, have not revealed much about the investigations in Pakistan in relation to the Shahzad case.
When taken together, the failed Times Square bombing, the factional infighting and the increased international focus on the LeT put into perspective a recent video from Al Qaeda. In a major setback to Al Qaeda, Abu al-Yazid, considered the third highest ranking member after Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, was reported killed in a drone attack.
In a video that appeared last week from the Al Qaeda's media communication channel, Yazid, who perhaps recorded his last message before his death, was seen appealing for funds, further underlining the weakening of Al Qaeda resources. The video was also significant for another reason.
For the first time,
Yazid acknowledges that Ilyas Kashmiri's 313 Brigade had a role in the February 13 blast in Pune's German Bakery. Describing Kashmiri as leading the Al Qaeda in Jammu & Kashmir, this statement from Yazid has received very little attention in India.
The Yazid statement comes at the same time Pakistan seeks to deflect attention from the JuD's Hafiz Saeed. While one media statement by a Lashkar spokesman sought to put some distance between JuD and the 26/11-accused Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi who remains under trial in Pakistan, other media reports described Saeed as being under house arrest.
This simultaneous shifting of spotlight to Kashmiri's 313 Brigade and deflection of attention from Saeed has some history as is evident from the David Headley chargesheets and in the timing of a previous anti-India Al Qaeda video, also issued by Yazid in March 2009.
While this double game between the 313 Brigade and LeT could have a benign explanation coming as it is in the week before Home Minister Chidambaram's visit to Pakistan,
there is another unverified signal that must be paid attention to. In the first week of June, a new jihadist website was registered in the name of 313 Brigade. The website carries a eulogy to Yazid apparently mourning his death in a drone strike. At this time the website does not carry any explicit threats. However, the timing of its launch is ominous as Mr Chidambaram prepares to visit Pakistan on June 26, which also happens to be a Saturday.