Kayani's Gamble

[sob]

Kayani's gamble

It is a war, full scale, in Pakistan.
The enemy is entrenched on the mountain tops and in the valleys to the west of the Indus. The state's army, or the army that owns the state of Pakistan, is fighting a full-scale war. Unleashing awesome firepower on the enemy are supersonic F-16 jet-fighters, squadrons of helicopter gunships, several score batteries of beyond-the-horizon artillery guns that once pounded India's Kargil-Leh road and, of course, lakhs of hardy Pakistani infantrymen. The only missing elements are armour (tanks) and the navy.

India and the world may scoff at Pakistan that it is fighting an army of Frankenstein's monsters it had spawned in the eighties through an illicit liaison with the US. Such historical prudery has no relevance in General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's war room in the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi. It is war and he has to win it. Already he has cleared large swathes of territory from the enemy [see maps].

Last week's announcement by US President Barack Obama that the Americans would begin pulling out of Afghanistan has added an urgency to Kayani's efforts to finish the war. Even prior to that, he has been taking the riskiest gamble ever taken by a Pakistani army chief. He has left the Indian border thinly defended. Kayani has drawn entire divisions and brigades from the Indian border and sent them to fight militants in the west, leaving his 2,240-km Indian border thinly defended. In the process, he has put blind faith in three things—his less-than-100km range Hatf nuclear missiles to scare India's three strike corps, a strategic insurance policy taken with the Chinese and the good sense of a 78-year-old man sitting in Delhi's South Block.

The big news for Indian commanders is the orbat in the eastern theatre. A few months ago, US RAND Corporation's Seth Jones and Christine Fair had estimated that troops drawn from two division headquarters, eight infantry headquarters, 20 full battalions, eight engineer battalions, one special battalion, two signals battalions and 38 Frontier Corps wings have been pressed into battle at various stages in Operation Al Mizan in South Waziristan. In the subsequent Operation Zalzala, the entire 14 Division, drawn from the India-centric Multan (II) Corps, was put to battle. In Operation Sherdil in Bajaur, a brigade headquarters, four battalions and seven Frontier Corps wings were pressed into action under the command of a three-star general.

The entire 19 Division, attached to the Rawalpindi (X) Corps and earlier stationed in Mangla on the Indian frontier, is still fighting in Operation Rah-e-Rast in Swat. Operation Rah-e-Nijat in South Waziristan involved 7 Division and 9 Division from the Peshawar Corps, plus two Special Services Group battalions and two infantry brigades taken off from the Indian border. Some 30,000 troops were inducted into battle, along with several artillery regiments, against 10,000 die-hard Pak Taliban in this operation.

The complete Article can be read here : KayaniÂ’s gamble

 

[Yusuf]

Link not working for full article.

 

[sob]

Yusuf this is the cover story in The Week magazine Dt. 3rd July.

I am giving the link again KayaniÂ’s gamble

 

[pankaj nema]

Pakistan's problem is near TOTAL radicalisation .

The decades of nurturing the Global jihadis for various "projects " Afghanistan and India and Kashmir etc ;means that today millions of Pakistanis are believers of an extremist ideology

Not only are they hate All non Muslims but the Wahabi- Deobandi - Barelvi- Shia , all these deep rooted sectarian conflicts have suddenly exploded and come out in the open

General Kayani How many Millions will you kill ?

 

[pankaj nema]

Violence in Pakistan is multi dimensional in nature

The terrorist attacks by TTP and the sectarian conflicts are just one conflict .

Then there is inter provincial conflicts which is economic and about political power

Punjabi , sindhi, Balooch, Mohajir , Pashtun , they all hate each other .

All the rich and power groups ie military , bureaucracy ,landlords , politicians, businessmen are just busy holding on to their turfs and safeguarding their interests

The total economic collapse means that people are left to fend for themselves

So that explains the rising crime and lawlessness

 

[Yusuf]

Yusuf this is the cover story in The Week magazine Dt. 3rd July.

I am giving the link again KayaniÂ’s gamble

for some reason the link was not opening on my iphone..its fine on a desktop.

There are many things in the article.
1) Kayani is fighting militants.
2) He has removed many troops from Indian border
3) He is facing shortage of officers
4) Cadre count is getting lower and morale thin
5) he is scared of cold start
6) He has reduced the nuke threshold.

1) If he is actually fighting militants, who are they and whats their allegiance? How was Bin Laden not found for so long and that too in Abbotabad. Why is the Haqqani group alive and kicking. So is it just a show of action while not doing anything to preserve future strategic depth? If so, he is wasting his men, while not necessary any money as he gets fat cheques from the US far greater than what he actually spends. So there is a motive to have a "showcase war".

2) He may have removed troops from Indian border, but thats because of the good faith that he has in Indian polity. But he should not worry too much as he has trained militants to fill in. We just have news about 14,000 militants as reserve. Now that is coming out from one militant in the know of this reserve. We dont know how many more are there.

3) Shortfall in officers is a problem with india as well. But for me the problem is that those leaving the PA actually sign up with terrorists. There are enough evidences of retired officers and terror network with the blessings of the PA. So the shortfall is in the conventional sphere, not unconventional war that Pak want to fight India with.

4) Cadre morale thin and numbers depleting.. Bad news, they may be signing up with terrorists.

5) Scared of cold start he should be as all these years he has been training groups for unconventional war. in fact his predecessor tried and failed in Kargil. Now he is feeling the pinch.

6) Lowering of nuke threshold, as i always say, Pak nuke threat is a bluff.

 

[sob]

The article is hinting or rather putting it very clearly that the GOI has opened channels of communication directly with Gen Kayani, that is very interesting.

 

[Pakistani Nationalist]

Trash from a blog.

 

[Tomcat]

how do you know ??? PN

 

[Yusuf]

Trash from a blog.

So has Kayani pulled out the troops or not? From the Indian border that is!

 

[JayATL]

Trash from a blog.

your avatar tell us why you come to that conclusion every time.

 

[Pakistani Nationalist]

So has Kayani pulled out the troops or not? From the Indian border that is!

Nope....... No such movement has been seen.

 

[JayATL]

Nope....... No such movement has been seen.

How would you know- it's been acknowledged even from the Indian side. There is no gain for the indians to lie about it- infact it forces the Indian side to acknowledge a draw down thereby leaving India to reciprocate with its own draw down.

I have found you to be always a one liner propaganda machine- you usually throw your customary CIA/ RAW/MOSSAD theories to every inaction and stupidity of your army and ISI or denials to any credible reporting about Pakistan's screwup's

 

[ejazr]

The article is hinting or rather putting it very clearly that the GOI has opened channels of communication directly with Gen Kayani, that is very interesting.

There are lot of indications on this regard. The PA leadership needs a breather and they are willing to go out of their way to reach out to their Indian counterparts. Also they must be getting pressured from the US not to mention other traditional allies like China and the Saudis to focus on cleaning up the mess rather than obsess about India.

 

[sob]

This is something that Pakistan has not realised or chose to ignore that as long as American troops are in the AF-Pak region India will commence any unilateral action across the border. This is the reality and the Us has been working hard on it.

Also the US presence in the region has resulted in extreme pressure on Pakistan and we can see post 26/11 the number of incursions across the border have reduced dramatically.

 

[Yusuf]

Nope....... No such movement has been seen.

If no movement has been seen, then your general is lying to the Americans about shifting troops from east to west to fight the terrorists.
May be some of those hired "reserve" that you have are probably "fighting" in the west to milk the US.

 

[Pakistani Nationalist]

If no movement has been seen, then your general is lying to the Americans about shifting troops from east to west to fight the terrorists.
May be some of those hired "reserve" that you have are probably "fighting" in the west to milk the US.

There is no news abt COAS talking abt troop withdrawl... we already have 1.5 lac soldiers and 1.5 lac FC troopers fighting in FATA!

 

[Bhadra]

According to the article in the week following forces are deployed by PA for its so called anti (Tribal) terrorist Wars :
XI Corps - Peshawar (Op Rah e Nizat)
7 Infantry Divisin
9Infantry Division
2 SSG Battalions
Two Infantry Brigade from down South
XII Corps
Two Infantry Brigaes
For Al Mizan (South Vaziristan)
Eight Infantry Brigade HQs
20 Infantry Battalions
Eight Enginner Battalions
One SSG group
Two Signals Battalions
38 FC Wings

Op Sherdil (Qia ka Dil?) (Bazuar)
Brigade HQ
Four Infantry Battalions
Seven FC Corps Wings
Op ZALZALA
14 Infantry Division from Multan

Op Rah e Rast ( Jo Huwa Past and is in Rust) (Swat)
19 Infnatry Division of Mangla X Corps

Accretion
More troops from Mangla (17 Division),I Corps and troops from Multan II Corps
One Brigade each from XXX Corps, Gajjaranwala and Bahawalpur XXXI Corps.

Total
Four infantry divisions
17 infantry brigades
54 infantry units
two SSG groups
One special Task Force
58 FC wings

This is one third strenghth of Pak Army thrown North of Indus to beat up the Afghans, Pathans, Hazaras and tribal

Is history repeating itself !!

 

[Pakistani Nationalist]

According to the article in the week following forces are deployed by PA for its so called anti (Tribal) terrorist Wars :
XI Corps - Peshawar (Op Rah e Nizat)
7 Infantry Divisin
9Infantry Division
2 SSG Battalions
Two Infantry Brigade from down South
XII Corps
Two Infantry Brigaes
For Al Mizan (South Vaziristan)
Eight Infantry Brigade HQs
20 Infantry Battalions
Eight Enginner Battalions
One SSG group
Two Signals Battalions
38 FC Wings

Op Sherdil (Qia ka Dil?) (Bazuar)
Brigade HQ
Four Infantry Battalions
Seven FC Corps Wings
Op ZALZALA
14 Infantry Division from Multan

Op Rah e Rast ( Jo Huwa Past and is in Rust) (Swat)
19 Infnatry Division of Mangla X Corps

Accretion
More troops from Mangla (17 Division),I Corps and troops from Multan II Corps
One Brigade each from XXX Corps, Gajjaranwala and Bahawalpur XXXI Corps.

Total
Four infantry divisions
17 infantry brigades
54 infantry units
two SSG groups
One special Task Force
58 FC wings

This is one third strenghth of Pak Army thrown North of Indus to beat up the Afghans, Pathans, Hazaras and tribal

Is history repeating itself !!

Ur first post n full of hatred n nonsense....... hazaras?pashtuns?tribals? wtf... lol Those 58 FC wings r composed of tribal pashtuns, hazaras are anti taliban and dont live in FATA but in baluchistan(remember Gen Musa Khan) afghans terrorist yes! Also around 40% army consists of Pashtuns while a 2 Pashtu speaking generals are conducting the Ops there...

 

[Bhadra]

Ur first post n full of hatred n nonsense....... hazaras?pashtuns?tribals? wtf... lol Those 58 FC wings r composed of tribal pashtuns, hazaras are anti taliban and dont live in FATA but in baluchistan(remember Gen Musa Khan) afghans terrorist yes! Also around 40% army consists of Pashtuns while a 2 Pashtu speaking generals are conducting the Ops there...

Oh very strange ! so there is nothing called Hazara in Pakistan ?

So what is it?

Hazara (Hindko: هزاره, Urdu: ہزارہ) is a region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. It comprises six districts: Abbottabad District, Battagram District, Haripur District, Kohistan District, Mansehra District and now, since 28 January 2011, the new Tor Ghar District.

You do not know your country so learn from me.

And I only quoted facts as published a Weekly?

Why are you pertubed ?
Do not you know tha All Pathans (of verious hues and tribes) are up in Arms against the Pakjabies and the others? They will slaughter you all>

I pray to Allaha that one day you might have to ask Indian Army to help you out to save you from the fury of Pathans.

By the way you are already under fire even if Kayani has all Pushto or Baluchi Genenerals !

That is my personal observation and there is no place for hatred there.

History will repeat so to say and I think it is repeating under modern circumstances. Pakistan will be agains under Durranies and Abdalies (may be TTP or Talibans), even if temporarily, for a hundered or two hundred years.

Save yourself from that, rather than praying for "Nizame Mustafa".If Mustafa comes from the FATA you will have a bad time... you all know it. It will be fata and fatta..