July rains could fail India, says Japanese model

Discussion in 'Economy & Infrastructure' started by Vishwarupa, Apr 17, 2012.

  1. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

    Sep 15, 2009
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    Japanese researchers have maintained below-normal monsoon outlook for India in the latest forecasts.

    They are forecasting a dismal July for most parts of the country, following a June which could be good in parts only.

    Northern and eastern parts of north-west India and parts of east-central India might get to see normal rains during June.


    But the rain is likely to fail the west coast up to Gujarat, scientists at the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo said.

    Jammu and Kashmir, north Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh are among the regions likely to benefit from June rains.

    East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and coastal Orissa and adjoining coastal north Andhra, too, are projected to be gainers.

    The crucial July month could likely prove a disaster, if the RIGC model is to be believed.

    What could mess up the monsoon this year is the feared negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in which the east of the ocean warms up anomalously.


    And the RIGC has retained the warning for ‘a weak negative IOD to evolve in early summer and peak towards the autumn.'

    The monsoon is said to prosper when the reverse happens – warmth shifting to the west, as it happened on a trot on three years from 2006.

    In other analysis, the RIGC said that the tropical Pacific condition has returned to a ‘neutral' state, ending a prolonged La Nina event.

    This is what drove the successful monsoon years of 2010 and 2011 after a disastrous El Nino event in year 2009.

    The neutral state will continue at least until the end of this year, the RIGC said. It has also forecast a colder winter for the US and Eurasia this year.


    Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the outlook for a fresh western disturbance over north-west India by Friday.

    The system will affect the western Himalayan region from Thursday onwards and adjoining plains from Friday, the IMD said.

    According to global forecasts, the system will run with a bearing that weighs in anomalously to the south.

    It is expected to hit southwest Rajasthan, adjoining Gujarat (including Mumbai) and west Madhya Pradesh to bring in some wet weather.

    Business Line : Industry & Economy / Agri-biz : July rains could fail India, says Japanese model

    If this turns out to be true then achieving the predicted growth rate will be difficult.
  3. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

    May 4, 2009
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    New Delhi
    Gayi Bhains Paani Main.

    AS it is there are so many problems with the economy, we can do without a sub normal monsoon. RBI has done it's role by lowering CRR by 50 bps, there should be some positive impact on the economy.
  4. Godless-Kafir

    Godless-Kafir DFI Buddha Senior Member

    Aug 21, 2010
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    Inflation is already very high at 8% or 9% now if that rain fails we may have a catastrophic effect on economy.

    No power, no fuel and now high prices to!!

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