Is Letting Pakistan Collapse An Option?

Is Letting Pakistan Collapse An Option?

  • Yes

    Votes: 45 84.9%
  • No

    Votes: 7 13.2%
  • can't say

    Votes: 1 1.9%

  • Total voters
    53

Ray

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Vyom,

While one appreciates what you feel, yet one wonders!

Just to reinforce Yusuf's point, were Indians too happy with the Sharm el Sheik talks?

Manmohan Singh was roundly criticised. And some even said that it was a 'sell out'.

Indians, if one goes by events, are more moderate than the Pakistanis.

Therefore, it is a slim chance, if not none, if any Pakistan leader will survive as a leader who is soft towards India.

And anyway, if one sees the way Pakistan has evolved after their Independence, it will be observed that they have no vision and have been spiralling downwards so much the world is concerned that it may simply vanish.

Reminds me of the effects that occur when atoms collide! That will be what may happen when all the divergent forces jockeying for power collide!
 
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Yusuf

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it will be observed that they have no vision and have been spiralling downwards so much the world is concerned that it may simply vanish.
Sir their vanishing act is what we are discussing here. Lol. It all comes back to that again and again.. Sau marz ki ek dava. Collpase of Pakistan.
 

Ray

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The chemistry is right for collapse.

But the reaction to fructify will take more time as they get zanier by the day!
 

anoop_mig25

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off topic but i want to know about sindh region of pakistan . what its sindh ? is it religion ? if yes then how many sindhis have remain in pakistan. or they are in minority in the state of sindh itself. does india has any sindhi population
 

neo29

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The chemistry is right for collapse.

But the reaction to fructify will take more time as they get zanier by the day!
Chemistry should have been already started, but it is never too late. Its high time India takes an initiative to destabilize Pakistan into chaos. Our intelligence agencies have to do its part after taking permission from the highest level. Economy killing is must. But one of the main catalyst for this is already been sowed by Pakistan is Extremism. Turn their minority groups like Baloch rebels, Ahmedi's and other local groups to turn against the state of Pakistan.

India has never conducted Black Ops. Even after 26/11 we still did nothing. Black Ops must be started inside Pakistan to assassinate most wanted criminals by India. Even when Masood Azhar was released after the plane hijack, India knew where he was in Pakistan delivering open speeches. Still the government stuck to diplomatic channels. Its high time the authorities realize that with Pakistan there is nothing called diplomacy if they want to start the collapse of Pakistan.
 

Vyom

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Therefore, it is a slim chance, if not none, if any Pakistan leader will survive as a leader who is soft towards India.
My point is that such a leader or group of leaders will have to sweep away the focus from India, whether soft or hard, and focus on building their nation on positive grounds. I am only saying that it is an option before the people of Pakistan. But I do concede that the chances are bleak.
 

Vyom

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India has never conducted Black Ops. Even after 26/11 we still did nothing. Black Ops must be started inside Pakistan to assassinate most wanted criminals by India. Even when Masood Azhar was released after the plane hijack, India knew where he was in Pakistan delivering open speeches. Still the government stuck to diplomatic channels. Its high time the authorities realize that with Pakistan there is nothing called diplomacy if they want to start the collapse of Pakistan.
I am afraid that will unite all the elements in Pakistan against India. Any such action from India, if proved to their people, could be very counter-productive for us. It will not only take away the moral leverage from us to hold Pakistan responsible for attacks in India, but it would also give them a common goal, one which they yearn for so much.

The fall of Pakistan, if at all it happens, can happen only if we let the current situation to continue and worsen. If India gets into this mess, the infightings would tend to stop and they will use the anti-India sentiments to unite themselves and thereafter to harm India. We should just watch, and watch carefully to analyze where Pakistan is going and how its direction can affect India.
 

Ray

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Quote Originally Posted by neo29 View Post
India has never conducted Black Ops. Even after 26/11 we still did nothing. Black Ops must be started inside Pakistan to assassinate most wanted criminals by India. Even when Masood Azhar was released after the plane hijack, India knew where he was in Pakistan delivering open speeches. Still the government stuck to diplomatic channels. Its high time the authorities realize that with Pakistan there is nothing called diplomacy if they want to start the collapse of Pakistan.
It requires a national psyche to have such an aggressive action. Unfortunately, Indian history, at least of the recent past, does not indicate such resolute action.

Therefore, to expect such things to happen is whistling for the favourable wind to blow.

If India had this psyche, then we would not be moving files to prove that the ISI and their cahoots are involved.

They would have met their Maker by now.

We are the followers of Gandhi and that is ingrained in our psyche as Indian historical ethos of ahimsa was ingrained in Gandhi.

It is only Israel which has this capabilities and they do so instantly. Others do so too, but after deliberation wherein the effect is lost. India, just does not have the stomach for it!

Let me give you an example of the Indian psyche.

There is a community that is declared as 'martial race'. They eat mutton with relish, but will not slaughter the goats that come as 'MOH or Meat on Hoof'. They give their share of the MOH to the other community of the unit who have no hesitation to slaughter and then go to their lunger (cookhouse) to eat!

This always intrigued me.
 
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Neil

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I am afraid that will unite all the elements in Pakistan against India. Any such action from India, if proved to their people, could be very counter-productive for us. It will not only take away the moral leverage from us to hold Pakistan responsible for attacks in India, but it would also give them a common goal, one which they yearn for so much.

The fall of Pakistan, if at all it happens, can happen only if we let the current situation to continue and worsen. If India gets into this mess, the infightings would tend to stop and they will use the anti-India sentiments to unite themselves and thereafter to harm India. We should just watch, and watch carefully to analyze where Pakistan is going and how its direction can affect India.
bro....i think u are thinking way too deep.....u cant love and hate at the same time-u want to be soft and care about its people so be it and u cant complain of being hurt OR u can hate them and dont care about their people at all but that will mean slaughtering them if needs arises we have to chose only one.....
 

ejazr

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off topic but i want to know about sindh region of pakistan . what its sindh ? is it religion ? if yes then how many sindhis have remain in pakistan. or they are in minority in the state of sindh itself. does india has any sindhi population
Sindh is a province of Pakistan and has about 50 million people. It also has about 95% of all of Pakistan's Hindu population and 10% of Sindh population is non-Muslim having the largest minority population out of all provinces in Pakistan. Infact, I think there are three-four districts that are even Hindu majority in Sindh.

60% of the population of Sindh province is "Sindhi", 20% Muhajir, 7% Punjabi and rest other. Sindhi speakers are also is the most favorable to India with only 3% considering India as a threat in a 2009 Aljazeera poll.
 

ejazr

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bro....i think u are thinking way too deep.....u cant love and hate at the same time-u want to be soft and care about its people so be it and u cant complain of being hurt OR u can hate them and dont care about their people at all but that will mean slaughtering them if needs arises we have to chose only one.....
Its not about love or hate of the people of Pakistan or its military, I think what Vyom is saying is that the only "uniting factor" would be a solid proof of India's attempt to dismember Pakistan. This is a valid point.

For example, post mumbai-attacks, TTP cheif Beitullah Mehsud announced that if India attacks Pakistan, they will fight side-by-side with Pakistan army against India. A senior army spokesman mentioned in response that he (Mehsud) is a great patriot and there is only some misunderstanding between us.

Its another story, that India choose not to respond militarily and Mehsud continued to launch devastating attacks against the ISI/Army including the GHQ.
 

thakur_ritesh

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off topic but i want to know about sindh region of pakistan . what its sindh ? is it religion ? if yes then how many sindhis have remain in pakistan. or they are in minority in the state of sindh itself. does india has any sindhi population
adding to what ejazr has said, india has over 4million sindhis and two of the very well known sindhis are ambani and advani though both of them are wrongly recognized as gujjus. sindhis in most cases can be figured out by their surnames which in those cases ends with "ani" such as advani, ambani, tikyani, etc and here you can find a list of all such surnames in alphabetic order - http://globalsindhi.com/social/pg/b...f-sindhi-surnames-list-of-sindhi-family-names
 
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Neil

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Its not about love or hate of the people of Pakistan or its military, I think what Vyom is saying is that the only "uniting factor" would be a solid proof of India's attempt to dismember Pakistan. This is a valid point.

For example, post mumbai-attacks, TTP cheif Beitullah Mehsud announced that if India attacks Pakistan, they will fight side-by-side with Pakistan army against India. A senior army spokesman mentioned in response that he (Mehsud) is a great patriot and there is only some misunderstanding between us.

Its another story, that India choose not to respond militarily and Mehsud continued to launch devastating attacks against the ISI/Army including the GHQ.
yeah ejazr bhai true but then we again come to the same question what should we do....??we do something they will unite if we dont then we bleed and GoI is ''coward'' comes in.....

the reality is ejazr bhai that we as a nation are divided and it reflects on are foreign policy.....we want to take revenge of terrorist attack on us we have to become terrorist but that will unite them...
if we sit back and let them bleed they wont go down alone they will take us with them....and more terror strikes on are cities....
 

Vyom

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yeah ejazr bhai true but then we again come to the same question what should we do....??we do something they will unite if we dont then we bleed and GoI is ''coward'' comes in.....

the reality is ejazr bhai that we as a nation are divided and it reflects on are foreign policy.....we want to take revenge of terrorist attack on us we have to become terrorist but that will unite them...
if we sit back and let them bleed they wont go down alone they will take us with them....and more terror strikes on are cities....
Why do we have to become terrorist to take revenge of terrorism? Do you mean to say that we have to become a criminal to punish a criminal?

I don't think any sane person thinks of revenge towards ordinary citizens of Pakistan. If at all needed, India can launch a military attack, but only when all other options are exhausted. But before taking such an action India will have to consider many consequential reactions, which apparently you are not aware of.
 

Soham

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Why do we have to become terrorist to take revenge of terrorism? Do you mean to say that we have to become a criminal to punish a criminal?

I don't think any sane person thinks of revenge towards ordinary citizens of Pakistan. If at all needed, India can launch a military attack, but only when all other options are exhausted. But before taking such an action India will have to consider many consequential reactions, which apparently you are not aware of.
There isn't any mention of hatred for Pakistani citizenry.
The surge of an India-friendly leadership remains a wishful dream, especially when Zia's hog-washed Generals have arrived at the peak of their power.
Even if such a civilian leader does arise, he certainly can't step against the position of the Army. And we know the people whom reached the top of the Army Pyramid.

The question is, can we catalyze the Balkanization of Pakistan, without engaging in an all-out conflict ? Possibly by eliminating critical men(terrorist leaders/ISI men) by covert assassinations/abductions.

Yes, there maybe chances of getting caught, and consequently a resentment in the Pakistani populace. But what does it matter ? Their books, education and media teach them to hate us anyway.
 

Singh

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^^^Its not as easy as it sounds really.

Collapse is what the TTP and Al Qaeda want. Its more likley that AQ sympathisers after the collapse will work over time to pass on nuke weapons to AQ elements, possibly LeT and others. Its more likely that it would turn into an Afghanistan of the 90s or Somalia where no country would want to go in and there will be no actors to talk to. At present the US has its agents and mentors at all levels within Pakistan to atleast monitor if not influence Pakistani policies. We have Americans present in FATA and tribal areas as well as those providing training to security personeel guarding nuek facilities. In a collapse, all these assets will have to be evacuated making US blind and wary of any ground intervention after Iraq and Afghanistan wars as well as a sick economy.

The worst affected will be its neighbours India, Iran and Afghanistan. China might be affected sightly but giving the difficult and small border, not that much.


As a realist, a collapsed Pakistan might soothe the ego, but will easily affect India more than China which is our main contender in Asia. IDSA came out with an excellent book "Wither Pakistan" that covers various scenarios that Pakistan may be in in the next 10 years and how Indiashould react to it. Must read to get a good backgrounder.

For those interested, they can check out http://www.idsa.in/book/WhitherPakistan

IMO Pakistan may lurch from crisis to crisis, but the two most arguably powerful countries in the world US and China will not let Pakistan collapse for their own reasons.
Collapse may not be a good option if it causes a refugee problem for India and also possibly for China??

The very fact that the international community is prepared to let Pakistan collapse could induce some good sense in the thinking of its army and intelligence establishment.

Very hypothetical question, not happening.

B Raman is not saying that a collapse should be engineered. He wants the west to tighten the screws to call out Pakistan's bluff. As long as Pak thinks it can get away with it, it will not change.

This is exactly the policy followed by India during Kargil. We convinced Clinton that a nuclear war where a third of India and whole of Pakistan is destroyed would be considered a desirable victory.

US needs to do the same, spook and put the fear of failure in the heart of Pak establishment. Pak establishment has something to fight for after all.
 

Ray

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adding to what ejazr has said, india has over 4million sindhis and two of the very well known sindhis are ambani and advani though both of them are wrongly recognized as gujjus. sindhis in most cases can be figured out by their surnames which in those cases ends with "ani" such as advani, ambani, tikyani, etc and here you can find a list of all such surnames in alphabetic order - http://globalsindhi.com/social/pg/b...f-sindhi-surnames-list-of-sindhi-family-names
Don Giovani and Giani are also wrongly thought to be Sindhis!

:)
 

S.A.T.A

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In all the bonhomie that we might have for ordinary Pakistanis,which should have reached new heights as truck load Pakistani onions reach indian kitchens,one must not lose sight of the fact that the last time united Pakistan collapsed in 1971,required a very large dose of indian prodding to help them get there.India's military response to the Mumbai attacks shouldn't be construed as 'terrorist' response ,rather a legitimate act of retribution of an outraged nation.The fact that indian govt failed to act,best illustrates the fact that perhaps the union govt did not share the outrage felt by the rest of India.Now that shouldn't come as a surprise at all.Lets hope tomorrow if another Kargil is thrust upon us, our govt wouldn't choose to sit idle and prepare exquisite dossiers, lest we unite the Pakistanis.
 

Rage

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Ideally, Pakistan would be tri-furcated into three states: Balochistan, Sindh-Seraiki-Punjab and the Northern areas.

How? Is a question beyond the scope of my knowledge and understanding.

But I could see that this would work. A Balochistan, that was independent would change the dynamics of our relationship with Iran: it would probably entail an Indian support for Balochistan against Iran. A Sindh-Punjab, in the form of a much-diminished Pakistan would entail some balancing of one against the other. A Northern Areas that was independent, would entail some Indian encroaching in what is now so-piquantly called 'Gilgit-Baltistan'.

Of all the three, the Northern Areas is probably the easiest to separate. The key remains: Lawlessness and a coalescing of tribal interests around one 'epicenter': whatever that center is, a person, a group or an interest. The concerns remain: China and the Pakistani Army. The Federal govt., which is a do-it-all dunderhead, has recently come under pressure of the Army to recalibrate and absorb tribal areas into new Comissions and establish a garisson in each area.

The most difficult, logistically, probably remains Balochistan. Because: it is sparsely populated, and because the violent insurgency there in the 1970's, has been petering out. The key remains: an Iranian interest and American hegemony. The challenges are: the Pakistani Army, which has a better hold over Balochistan than the Northwest and oil/supply interests of Pakistan, China and the Central Asian powers.

We don't have the means at present, other than to 'niggle' and jab. Nor is there an environment, internationally construed in favor of such a collapse. American economic health remains a matter of concern, and the longer they delay this, the longer they remain in Afghanistan and the more their supply routes depend upon Pakistan, and consequently China.
 

Yusuf

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A Sindh-Punjab, in the form of a much-diminished Pakistan would entail some balancing of one against the other.
Why Sindh stay united with Punjab within the scope of Pakistan? I think Sindh would be the easiest to break from Punjab based on history.
 

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